As each NHL team is eliminated from playoff contention -- either mathematically or by losing in the postseason -- we'll take a look at why its quest for the Stanley Cup fell short in 2017-18, along with three keys to its offseason and a way-too-early prediction for what 2018-19 will hold.
What went wrong
Would the Toronto Maple Leafs (49-26-70, 105 points) have fared better against the Pittsburgh Penguins than the Boston Bruins in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs?
Under the old conferencewide one-vs.-eight format, they would have faced the defending champs, so this is not mere navel-gazing. Instead, they were slotted against a Bruins team that was built for playoff success and had a dominant top line that neutralized the Auston Matthews unit for the Leafs.
Beyond that, Toronto's defense wasn't up to standards. Nazem Kadri's indefensible, immature hit on Tommy Wingels cost the Leafs valuable depth at center for three games. And Frederik Andersen morphed into Craig Anderson, looking unbeatable for stretches in between other stretches of looking very beatable.
Keys to the offseason
1. Make the right call on JVR.
James van Riemsdyk, 28, is coming off a career-best 36-goal season ahead of unrestricted free agency. His net-front presence and his ability to play with elite talent are going to make him coveted for teams that are looking to augment, say, a great, young top-line center.
The Leafs are a better team in the short term with JVR; they also have some massive second contracts on the horizon for young stars like Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander. Will JVR run for larger money? Does he want to stay and build to a championship for a reasonable discount? Do the Leafs even want to commit that term and money to a player inching toward age 30?
2. Improve the defense.
The Leafs gave up 33.9 shots per game, up from 32.6 shots per game last season. They were a middle-of-the-road Corsi for percentage team (49.8 percent) for that reason: Only four teams gave up more shot attempts at 5-on-5 than did Toronto, and the Leafs join all four of those teams now out of the playoffs.
Andersen was a dependable last line of defense, carrying the Leafs to a 2.80 team goals-against average. But he needs help, and Toronto must add some quality to their blue line. They're about two defensemen away.
Dream scenario: Drew Doughty declares to the Los Angeles Kings that he's going to explore free agency in 2019, and the Leafs somehow hasten the inevitable and trade for him.
3. Find the next GM.
The keys to the offseason could be in the hands of someone other than Lou Lamoriello.
There have been loud whispers that the 75-year-old general manager could be moved into another role with the organization -- upstairs, or perhaps to an advisory capacity. So, which prince moves up to take the throne: Mark Hunter, the 55-year-old hockey lifer who made his bones running the London Knights for 12 years and played in the NHL for 628 games; or Kyle Dubas, the 31-year-old wunderkind who managed the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds at 25 and is known for his forward-thinking and analytic approach? And will either of them really have the keys if Lou is still around and has team president Brendan Shanahan's ear?
The biggest task for whomever takes over (if they do): Nylander hitting restricted free agency this summer, with Marner and Matthews going RFA next summer. Does Matthews get Connor McDavid money?
Realistic expectation for 2018-19
Making the playoffs with this team is assumed at this point. But the honeymoon is done, the house money has been spent and the maturation process of players like Matthews, Nylander and Marner should be at a place where the Leafs are pivoting to being a championship challenger.
So that's the expectation for 2018-19: Advance past the first round and look like a team that can realistically threaten to win the Stanley Cup, rather than having a third straight "learning experience" for a team that should have graduated from those by now.