As each NHL team is eliminated from playoff contention -- either mathematically or by losing in the postseason -- we'll take a look at why its quest for the Stanley Cup fell short in 2017-18, along with three keys to its offseason and a way-too-early prediction on what 2018-19 will hold.
What went wrong
The Colorado Avalanche made a quick exit from the playoffs, but it's hard not to view the 2017-18 season as a massive success.
After finishing 2016-17 with a franchise-low 48 points, they nearly doubled that total. They did so after dealing away a key player, Matt Duchene, in a blockbuster November trade, and that came after withstanding months of speculation and tension.
The Avalanche also excelled despite a flurry of important injuries. And, they strung together a 10-game winning streak in January that put the rest of the league on notice. Were it not for the Vegas Golden Knights' stunning success, Jared Bednar would have an excellent case as the NHL's coach of the year.
That said, while the Avalanche completely outperformed expectations, ultimate success evaded them. Nathan MacKinnon put up an MVP-caliber campaign, but the Avalanche did not get sufficient production outside their first line (wingers Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog also had strong seasons). Late-season injuries to defenseman Erik Johnson and goalie Semyon Varlamov were huge blows.
In the end, they ran into a juggernaut in the Nashville Predators, and just didn't have enough to get past them.
Keys to the offseason
1. Acquire depth scoring.
As previously mentioned, the Avalanche's first line was terrific in 2017-18. Alongside MacKinnon, a Hart Trophy candidate with 39 goals and 97 points, wingers Landeskog (62 points) and Rantanen (84 points) scared a lot of teams. Unfortunately, there was shallow production behind them.
Second-liner Alexander Kerfoot, a rookie, put up 43 points but no other forward cracked 40. Yes, many of the other forwards (like J.T. Compher and Tyson Jost) were also first-year players -- but therein lies the problem. When MacKinnon went down because of a shoulder injury in late January, the lack of depth was exposed in a big way.
GM Joe Sakic has a lot of young prospects to build around, but he should consider adding a veteran in free agency who can put up numbers as soon as next season.
2. Consider signing Mikko Rantanen to an extension.
Sakic has done an excellent job of locking in his cornerstone players. The great news for the Avalanche is that those players are young and committed at reasonable rates. MacKinnon is under contract through 2022-23 with a cap hit of $6.3 million (a bargain!). He's only 22. Landeskog, the 25-year-old captain, will be with the team through 2020-21 and is under $6 million per year. Johnson, a No. 1 defenseman, is on the books through 2022-23 at $6 million.
Next on the to-do list should be Rantanen, who is still on his entry-level contract (it expires at the end of next season). The 21-year-old is the perfect sidekick to MacKinnon and it's easy to see the two nurturing their chemistry for years to come. Rantanen thrived when the stakes became higher. From Jan. 1 to the end of the regular season, he had 51 points, the eighth most in the NHL in that span. Sakic should reward the young Finn with a big payday.
3. Address the goaltending.
Varlamov's late-season injury was troublesome for the Avalanche, and he's under contract through 2018-19. Backup Jonathan Bernier was streaky in 2017-18 (but overall, pretty dependable in 34 starts) and becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer. The Avalanche could consider resigning him (his cap hit was a reasonable $2.75 million in average annual value on this contract) or look for another veteran who is capable of playing a No. 1 role should Varlamov's health issues return.
Realistic expectation for 2018-19
After overdelivering this season, the bar is much higher for 2018-19, as the worst years should be over for the Avalanche. Sakic has collected a great group of young talent that should make Colorado competitive in the Central Division for years to come.
Though Cale Makar, the No. 4 pick in 2017, opted for another season at UMass, there's prospects that should jump in right away. Samuel Girard (acquired in the Matt Duchene trade) will only get better with more seasoning. Defenseman Conor Timmins has excited a lot of scouts, but like Makar, might need time before making the NHL roster. Compher, Jost and Kerfoot all played significant roles in their first season, and hopefully will take a jump as sophomores.
As long as the goaltending is squared away, and Colorado receives better production from its bottom-nine forwards, expect this team to once again compete for a playoff spot.