As each NHL team is eliminated from playoff contention -- either mathematically or by losing in the postseason -- we'll take a look at why its quest for the Stanley Cup fell short in 2017-18, along with three keys to its offseason and a way-too-early prediction on what 2018-19 will hold.
What went wrong
Sometimes it's easy: We can pinpoint the exact moment it all spiraled. For the Dallas Stars, it was the "road trip from hell" (that's what Tyler Seguin called it, at least).
During a six-game stretch from March 11 to March 20, the Stars went 0-4-2. A team that had been in playoff position since before Christmas suddenly was on the outside looking in -- and it could not recover, missing the playoffs for the eighth time in 10 seasons.
The Dallas front office made the splashiest moves last summer, and for most of the season, it worked out. Ken Hitchcock's return was seamless; even players' styles that weren't supposed to jibe with Hitchcock's system were thriving. For example, Seguin put up one of his best seasons (40 goals, 36 assists) while rounding out his game defensively. A team that had committed the most money to goaltending (nearly $10 million for Ben Bishop and Kari Lehtonen, accounting for 15 percent of the Stars' salary-cap space) got better production from the position.
However, as the season wore on, the gambles were exposed. One of the big free-agent acquisitions, center Martin Hanzal, ended his season early with spinal-fusion surgery. Hanzal suited up in 38 games (scoring 10 points, generating a minus-14 rating). Defenseman Marc Methot sat out for significant time. Bishop missed games because of injury -- including in a crucial time down the stretch -- leading many to wonder if he is capable of playing a full season.
And general manager Jim Nill was so strapped at the deadline, he sat tight, unable to provide depth scoring or injury insurance for the final portion of the season.
Keys to the offseason
1. Sign prudently this offseason.
Defenseman Dan Hamhuis' $3.75 million cap hit comes off the books this summer, and it's unlikely Dallas will resign the 35-year-old -- especially at that rate. Ditto for backup goaltender Kari Lehtonen, who has been a fine asset but far too expensive at $5.9 million per year. The Stars can find a cheaper option as the backup goalie.
The front office was burned by injuries to big offseason signings -- was it just dumb luck or a lack of due diligence? Either way, the Stars do need depth scoring. Nill -- who has proven to be one of the most aggressive general managers in the league since assuming the position in 2013 -- can't mess this up.
2. Lock in Tyler Seguin with an extension.
The Stars' end-of-season struggles highlighted one thing: how valuable the 26-year-old center is. If Dallas were to have made the playoffs, it would have been because Seguin willed them in. His 40 goals accounted for 17.9 percent of the Stars' offense. He had his most prolific season on offense while playing in Hitchcock's defensive-minded system. That says something.
Seguin's contract doesn't expire until after the 2018-19 season. He'll likely wait for John Tavares to set the market this summer, but it would be wise for the Stars to commit to the one player who has consistently performed.
3. Address leadership.
It would be shocking if the Stars parted with Hitchcock after just one season, and, really, we don't expect that to happen. Despite the end-of-season free fall, it appeared most players bought into Hitchcock's style, and we got glimpses of the potential here.
Nill's seat should be warm after his big-time, free-agency moves once again didn't translate to playoff success. It's also clear this team has had some draft misses, as the lack of top prospects ready to plug in is glaring.
There are also some questions about Jamie Benn's captaincy. While he has showed fine leadership through his nine-year NHL career, when a team flounders out like this, it must look inward before it outsources for help.
Realistic expectation for 2018-19
The Stars have won the offseason before. Fans are getting impatient -- it's time to actually win. Next season won't be any easier, especially in the uber-competitive Central Division. The ascendant Winnipeg Jets are going to be good for some time. The Chicago Blackhawks are expected to rebound. The Nashville Predators and Minnesota Wild show no signs of regression.
So how can Dallas compete? The Stars don't have a terribly deep or impressive prospect pool, save for defenseman Miro Heiskanen, the No. 3 pick in 2017. Despite a stellar showing at the Olympics and world junior championships -- plus a great season in Finland's Liiga -- he's only 18. And really, defense isn't the big area of need for this team. It's identifying depth scoring.
Perhaps Nill will make a statement in the market yet again; any objections that Evander Kane or James van Riemsdyk will help this team offensively? Maybe this season's meltdown will serve as a wake-up call, but it's hard to look at this team as anything other than a fringe wild-card team in 2018-19 unless there are some significant changes.