As each NHL team is eliminated from playoff contention -- either mathematically or by losing in the postseason -- we'll take a look at why its quest for the Stanley Cup fell short in 2017-18, along with three keys to its offseason and a way-too-early prediction of what 2018-19 will hold.
What went wrong
We can point to a six-game, 14-day slide heading into the trade deadline as the impetus for the St. Louis Blues' collapse. That triggered GM Doug Armstrong to trade Paul Stastny, metaphorically throwing the white towel on the season.
On a macro level, the Blues' season was doomed by peaking too soon. The Blues outperformed for the first two months of the season, then could not sustain the bar they set.
We initially wrote St. Louis off because of its horrible injury luck. The Blues would begin the season without Patrik Berglund, Jay Bouwmeester and Alexander Steen; Robby Fabbri missing the entire season after a knee surgery was the final dagger. But then St. Louis turned out to be a delight; Jaden Schwartz was the breakout star everyone could root for. Brayden Schenn was awesome. Alex Pietrangelo was great. Vladimir Tarasenko was ... Vladimir Tarasenko.
Through the end of 2017, the Blues were leading the Central Division for all but 10 days. But cracks were beginning to show. Schwartz got injured on Dec. 9 and the Blues started scoring fewer goals. Around that time, Jake Allen began struggling, sparking a platoon scenario with Carter Hutton (who played very well for stretches). When they fell behind in games, the Blues weren't coming back anymore.
February was a dreadful month. St. Louis went 3-8-1, the third-worst mark in the league. They averaged 2.1 goals per game. Their goal differential was a minus-16. Yes, that pre-trade deadline slump is included in that stretch. By that point, the damage was done, despite a late-season rally that kept them alive until game No. 82.
Keys to the offseason
1. Address the goaltending situation
Allen's inconsistencies this past season were troubling. The 27-year-old is under contract through the 2020-21 season, though his cap hit ($4.35 million) is manageable, especially for a No. 1 goalie. The Blues are hoping he rebounds next season, though they could dangle him as trade bait; perhaps he just needs a change of scenery.
St. Louis has highly regarded prospect Ville Husso in the system, though he may not be ready just yet, while Hutton becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer.
It seems the Blues have some decisions to make. The safest bet? Bringing back the 32-year-old Hutton on a one-year deal as a safeguard.
2. Replace Stastny with a top-end center, ideally someone who can play with Tarasenko
Tarasenko is 26 years old, and arguably in the prime of his career. For him to reach the plateaus we think he's capable of -- a routine 40-plus-goal scorer -- something is going to need to change.
Tarasenko has had a rotating cast of linemates through his first six seasons in the league, and finding consistency certainly can't hurt. There is hope among Blues fans that prospect Robert Thomas could be the answer. The 2017 first-round pick tore it up in the OHL this season, but he is only 18 and that's a big jump for a player to make right away -- especially a center.
We'd love to see the Blues as big game hunters this summer, perhaps taking a run at John Tavares.
3. Acquire depth scoring
Before their season spiraled out of control, we assumed the Blues would be buyers for a scoring winger at the trade deadline, and that remains a need for this team. When they stormed to an awesome start, the Blues boasted one of the best lines in the league with Schenn, Schwartz and Tarasenko -- but there wasn't much depth behind them. Each of those players recorded at least 20 goals, but only four other forwards had double-digit totals.
St. Louis should be active bidders for any forwards on the market this summer.
Realistic expectation for 2018-19
GM Doug Armstrong (who signed an extension during the season, we should note) doesn't have too many hard decisions to make this summer. All of the Blues' foundational players are under contract through next season. They should have cap space, especially with Stastny off the books. There are also young players to be excited about in St. Louis; in addition to Thomas' potential arrival, the 2017-18 season was a great showcase for 21-year-old defenseman Vince Dunn.
We saw glimpses of how good the Blues can be through the first two months of the season, now the question is can they sustain that level. Fabbri's return will help, but it's hard to bank on a player coming off a serious knee injury, so Armstrong needs to add more scoring to the lineup.
If that happens and the goaltending improves, the Blues should have a good chance at the playoffs next spring. If not, we're looking at another inconsistent season ultimately ending in disappointment.