Vegas Golden Knights GM George McPhee is among those watching the NHL's conference finals very closely, in order to gather some final insights on the players he could select in the expansion draft on June 21.
The rules of the expansion draft require McPhee to select one player per team, and allow each team to protect up to 10 skaters and a goalie. Based on the current rosters of the four remaining teams in the playoffs, McPhee could be scouting his team's first starting goalie, one of his future top-four defensemen and two of the league's better bottom-six forwards.
Let's take a look at whom McPhee might be watching most closely, how their underlying numbers will help him with his upcoming selections and which players he should ultimately choose:
Pittsburgh Penguins
While watching the Eastern Conference finals, McPhee's greatest excitement is the possibility of selecting the team's first No. 1 goalie. As it stands, the Penguins must protect Marc-Andre Fleury because of his no-movement clause and expose Matt Murray.
Murray, who turns 23 on May 25, served as the team's No. 1 goalie until he suffered a lower-body injury in warm-ups for the first game of the playoffs. In 60 NHL starts, Murray has 36 quality starts for a quality start percentage of 60 percent and a sparkling record of 41-12-5. His career .925 save percentage leads all NHL goalies who have started 20 games or more.
In order to protect Murray, the Penguins have options. They can make McPhee an attractive offer to select someone else or they can persuade Fleury to waive his no-movement clause and either trade him to a team that will protect him or risk exposing him in the expansion draft.
If they go the latter route, we should expect McPhee to leap at the opportunity to select Fleury as the franchise's first starting goalie. Not only is Fleury playing the best hockey of his life during this playoff run -- aside from the rough first period in Game 3 against Ottawa -- but he has also posted a save percentage of at least .920 in two of the past three seasons. Plus there are very few tempting selections beyond Pittsburgh's goaltending.
Given the prospect that neither goalie will be available come June 21, McPhee and his team should be carefully considering which secondary player would best fit the new franchise. That could include Tom Kuhnhackl, Bryan Rust or Scott Wilson up front, or one of Ian Cole, Derrick Pouliot or Brian Dumoulin on the blue line.
Of these options, Dumoulin's ability to kill penalties and play sound defensive hockey might make him the best choice for an expansion team. The 25-year-old leads the Penguins in the playoffs with 21:08 of ice time per game.
Anaheim Ducks
Of all 30 teams, McPhee might be most excited about his selection from Anaheim's roster. Given the rules of setting protection lists for the expansion draft, the Ducks are arguably the team that's at the greatest risk of losing a top player.
In addition to a goalie, the rules allow each team to protect either seven forwards and three defensemen or eight skaters in total. In Anaheim's case, the former approach would expose a quality young defenseman, while the latter would expose a top-six forward.
There's no easy solution for Ducks GM Bob Murray. Because Kevin Bieksa's no-movement clause means he must be protected, choosing only three defensemen means that he will have to leave one of Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen or Cam Fowler unprotected. That won't happen.
If Bieksa agrees to waive his no-movement clause, this approach will still leave Josh Manson unprotected. Manson, who is 25, is a strong defensive-minded defenseman who could be an ideal choice for the Vegas blue line. In his three NHL seasons, his average of 2:08 minutes per game killing penalties is six seconds behind Fowler for the team lead, and his even-strength shot attempt differential of plus-495 ranks second to Lindholm's plus-573.
If Bieksa doesn't waive, or if he does but Murray opts to protect four defensemen in order to include Manson, that means only four forwards can be protected, which can include only one of Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg and Andrew Cogliano. Given that Rakell led the team with 33 goals this season and that Silfverberg leads the team with nine goals and is second to Ryan Getzlaf with 13 points in the playoffs, this is not a realistic route for Murray. Unless Murray makes some surprising transactions, Manson's selection could be unavoidable.
Nashville Predators
In Nashville's case, GM David Poile will almost certainly opt to protect his top-four defensemen, P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm. If any of these four players is left unprotected, that would become McPhee's easiest choice in the entire expansion draft.
This means that the Predators will have to leave some of their top forwards unprotected. With only four spaces left on the protection list, Poile has room for only the top line of Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson, plus someone like James Neal.
That means McPhee is closely watching those in the next tier of Nashville's forward group: Colin Wilson, Calle Jarnkrok, Craig Smith and Colton Sissons.
Of these options, Jarnkrok might be the best choice for Vegas. He enjoyed his second consecutive 30-point season; his 1:46 killing penalties per game ranked one second behind Mike Fisher for the team lead in the regular season; and he has a reasonable $2 million cap hit through the 2021-22 season, when he will be 30 years old. That's exactly the type of versatile forward that the Golden Knights will need while they wait for their organizational pipeline to develop.
Ottawa Senators
Of the four remaining teams, the expansion draft possibilities for the Senators are the most wide-open.
On the blue line, GM Pierre Dorion will be protecting Erik Karlsson and must protect Dion Phaneuf because of his no-movement clause, which still leaves defensemen Cody Ceci and Marc Methot to consider. If Dorion elects to protect all four defensemen, that will leave forwards like Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Zack Smith unprotected.
Even if Dorion finds a way to protect all of these players through some combination of transactions and waived no-movement clauses, McPhee will still have the option to add a valuable depth player like Ryan Dzingel or Chris Wideman.
One of McPhee's more interesting choices will be to take a chance on Bobby Ryan. Given his steep cap hit of $7.25 million that runs through the 2021-22 season, Ryan will most certainly be left unprotected in the expansion draft, despite leading the team's forwards this postseason with 13 points in 15 games, and having four 30-goal seasons to his name.
Ryan had a very forgettable regular season in which he scored just 25 points in 62 games, but his 63 goals and 158 points in the preceding three seasons led all Ottawa forwards. Plus Ryan is 20-for-54 in the shootout for his career.
No matter how starved for scoring the Vegas Golden Knights are likely to be, there's no way McPhee would take on such a pricey contract. But, if it helps get Ryan off their books and protects players like Ceci and Pageau, then it's possible Dorion could entice McPhee to make Ryan his selection. And, if he intends to primarily select players with value-priced contracts, this selection will help McPhee reach the expansion draft's required minimum of $43.8 million in signed 2017-18 contracts.