If Steven Stamkos hadn't seen a slip in his point production in recent seasons, there wouldn't have been much conversation about the Tampa Bay Lightning paying him big bucks. But a drop from 1.19 points per game at his peak in 2012-13 to 0.83 points per contest in his contract year drew questions about the age curve, playing center over not, his relationship with head coach Jon Cooper and whether a leg injury in 2013-14 may have affected his game.
But after spending the entire 2015-16 season debating whether the Lightning or any other team should sign the superstar to the league's most lucrative contract, Stamkos has opened the season looking like he has returned to his status as an elite scorer, by posting 19 points in his first 16 games.
A tweak by head coach Jon Cooper deserves credit for the Tampa Bay captain's rejuvenation.
Note: Advanced metrics are courtesy HockeyAnalysis.com.
Stamkos' issues
The questions after last season were fair, because Stamkos's down season was not simply because of puck luck. Comparing one season to another for elite players, we've seen fluctuations of as much as 10 points in shooting percentage from season to season. But, Stamkos was scoring on 16.7 percent of his shots in 2015-16, only down about three points from his best campaign. He wasn't getting the same number of shots on goal, which is why his goal total slipped from 60 at its peak all the way to 36 last season.
At his best, the former No. 1 overall pick was getting 3.7 shots on goal per game in 2011-12, his 60-goal season, but that number dropped all the way to 2.8 last season. Stamkos's shot attempts (shots on goal, plus blocked or missed shots) went from 539 in 2011-12 to 404 last season. The worry was that one of the aforementioned factors was causing him to no longer be able to create shots and scoring chances.
Dominating in the advanced metrics
A positive swing in puck luck isn't behind his return to dominance this season; in fact, Stamkos' shooting percentage of 14.0 percent is lower than his career average of 17.1 percent, so he will probably even see a bump in the number of pucks getting past goalies. The key difference is that his shot rates have returned to where they belong, at 3.6 per game.
Stamkos's underlying numbers look like he has bounced back to his video game-cover form, too. The Lightning were about a break-even team in terms of shot attempt differential (Corsi for percentage) with Stamkos on the ice during the last two seasons, as he managed plus-0.8 and minus-0.3 relative Corsi marks. Previously, he had been as high as plus-5.5 percent. Through 16 games this season, Stamkos is managing a remarkable plus-7.0 in relative Corsi percentage, with the Lightning taking 56.0 percent of the shot attempts with him on the ice.
Kucherov is the new St. Louis
Stamkos' success can be traced directly to playing alongside one of the most under-appreciated stars in the league, winger Nikita Kucherov. During the past two seasons, Kucherov has 131 points in 159 games, and is a plus-47. Impressively, 48 of his 59 goals in the past two campaigns have come at even strength. His even-strength points per 60 minutes rate of 2.20 between 2014-15 and 2015-16 is on par with that of John Tavares, and ranks 20th in the NHL during that time span. The former second-round pick add more support to his claim as one of the top young players in the game by posting 42 points in 45 games in the last two postseasons.
Most of this was done while not playing on a line with Stamkos, but now, Kucherov gets to play the role of Martin St. Louis as Stamkos' primary sidekick.
Out of a total 204 minutes on ice, Stamkos has played 124 with Kucherov, and the two have averaged 3.86 goals for per 60 minutes of ice time, with a 57.3 Corsi for percentage. In the time without the nifty Russian, Stamkos has produced 1.49 goals for per 60, and Corsi for percentage of 55.6.
While small sample sizes are in play in regards to the early success, it's surprising Cooper didn't put his two best players together earlier. In 281 minutes together in 2015-16, Stamkos's Corsi for percentage was 57.1 with Kucherov, but only 49.4 when he wasn't playing with Kucherov. Cooper gave his top scoring threat nearly twice as many minutes with offensively limited forwards Alex Killorn and Ryan Callahan than with Kucherov.
Between 2009-10 and the Lightning's trade of St. Louis to the New York Rangers during the 2013-14 season, 73 of Stamkos's 113 even-strength goals were scored while St. Louis was on the ice with him -- which is not to mention the power play chemistry that the two possessed. With the two on the ice together, the Lightning scored 3.37 goals per 60 power-play minutes in that same span. The following two seasons, Tampa Bay only managed 2.72 goals per 60 power-play minutes with Stamkos on the ice.
Stamkos is finally getting back to similar shot numbers on the power play as he had while playing with St. Louis. Despite the league trending down from 2006-07 in power plays, Stamkos has continued to put up impressive 5-on-4 goal scoring numbers, potting as many as 24 power play goals back in 2009-10. Last season, he only put 66 shots on goal at 5-on-4, compared to 98 in his best power-play scoring season. Stamkos's power-play shots are back on track through the first portion of the season, with 25 in 16 games -- or a pace of 128 in 82 games.
Looking ahead
The Lightning are off to a decent start this season, scoring the fourth most goals in the Eastern Conference and winning nine of 16 games. The one concern Tampa Bay should have about playing Stamkos and Kucherov together is: If they are together, they aren't going to be able to raise the play of other forwards. Cooper will have to decide whether it's better to have one line carry the team or spread out his talent.
We can pretty safely say which option Stamkos would pick.