Despite working his way up to fourth on the Columbus Blue Jackets' all-time scoring leaderboard at age 23, Ryan Johansen is reportedly on the trading block. This could be a tremendous opportunity if the right team can meet GM Jarmo Kekalainen's price.
Johansen may not be living up to expectations this season, but scratching him from the lineup on Dec. 17 against Arizona was overkill. If not for an unlucky shooting percentage that dropped from 13.4 percent in his previous two seasons to 7.4 percent in 2015-16, Johansen would have 11 goals and would be leading the Blue Jackets with 27 points -- or more.
Given the team's league-worst 13-20-3 record, a certain level of frustration in Columbus is understandable. But unless the Blue Jackets receive an incredible offer that includes a top-pairing defenseman and/or a wealth in picks and prospects, trading Johansen could just make a bad situation even worse.
Of course, there's still a chance that Johansen does get moved, and after looking at potential destinations, the clear best option is the Nashville Predators. Here's why.
The best- and worst-case scenarios for Johansen
As demonstrated in the table below, a typical top-six forward in Columbus can be statistically defined as anyone who can handle 13 to 14 minutes of even-strength ice time per game, in both zones, while scoring about 1.8 points per 60 minutes.
With a few slight exceptions, Johansen's numbers during the past three seasons closely match the average of Columbus' other top-six forwards, namely Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno, Brandon Saad, Cam Atkinson, Boone Jenner and Scott Hartnell.
At 23, Johansen has the potential to develop into an exceptional top-six forward, but he isn't there yet. While it appears reasonable to attribute part of Foligno's surprise 31-goal, 73-point 2014-15 breakout season to Johansen, he wasn't entirely to credit. In fact, Foligno has averaged 1.91 points per 60 minutes during the past three seasons while playing with Johansen and 2.09 without him. Teamwide, Johansen has generated only a minor boost in scoring for his linemates and hasn't had an impact on puck possession metrics at all.
In the worst case, Johansen is a solid top-six forward signed to a deal with a reasonable $4.0 million cap hit until he becomes a restricted free agent at the end of 2016-17. In the best case, he's a 23-year-old top-line center on the verge of a stardom.
Nashville is an ideal destination
Should Kekalainen pull the trigger on a deal, the speculation has been that Nashville or Philadelphia could be the ideal destination for Johansen, and the numbers agree more strongly with the former.
To identify Nashville as an ideal destination, the same study used to establish Johansen's contractual value in October 2014 was re-created with updated numbers. Specifically, the following chart displays a weighted average of the combined goals versus threshold (GVT) of each team's top two centers. The teams at the bottom are those that can put Johansen's skills to the greatest use, including the Predators, who sit 21st in the NHL:
Not much has changed in the past season and a half. Basically, the same teams that needed another top-six center in October 2014 are the same teams that could use one today.
Excluding teams that have been underrated because they're using first- or second-year players -- like Jack Eichel of the Buffalo Sabres, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers, and Evgeny Kuznetsov of the Washington Capitals -- it still leaves seven teams that could viably be in the hunt for an upgrade down the middle.
Among them, Nashville is the best example of a team that would want Johansen immediately, in order to pursue the current season's ambitions. After all, the Predators are a playoff team that could really use some help down the middle, especially with a 35-year-old Mike Fisher having missed 32 games (and counting) to injury during the past two seasons.
The Blue Jackets' biggest need
The greatest area of need in Columbus is the team's defense. Before the games of Dec. 21, there were five teams that had allowed 100 goals or more, and Columbus was the only one of those outside the Pacific Division.
Most of the blame for the team's poor defensive play lies with the blue line. Coach John Tortorella is being forced to employ Jack Johnson as a No. 1 defenseman alongside David Savard and to wait patiently for 22-year-old Ryan Murray to gradually develop into a viable top-pairing option while veteran Fedor Tyutin hangs on to a spot in the top four. With nothing but career AHLers behind them on the depth chart, Columbus needs to look outside the organization for a legitimate top-four defenseman.
The Predators have a strong, young blue line -- one of the best if not the best in the league. This is another reason why Nashville makes sense as a trading partner. But which of its defensemen would be available in exchange?
Even for a player of Johansen's caliber, GM David Poile would never move Shea Weber or Roman Josi. Furthermore, Ryan Ellis is more of an offensive-minded defenseman than what Columbus is looking for, while the defensive-minded Mattias Ekholm was locked in to a six-year, $22.5 million contract on Oct. 26.
That leaves 21-year-old Seth Jones, who is a pending restricted free agent at season's end, as a viable trade target -- albeit one that might require more than Johansen to shake loose.
Acquiring a developing player like Jones also means that the Blue Jackets would remain in the hunt for the draft lottery at this season's end. According to Micah Blake McCurdy of Hockey Viz, Columbus currently leads the Auston Matthews sweepstakes, with an 11.3 percent chance of drafting first overall in the 2016 NHL draft.
What should happen
It's possible that Johansen's struggles these past couple of months are the real deal, and that the previous two dominant seasons were actually the illusions. If so, trading him for desperately needed help on the blue line is the best that can be made from a bad situation.
However, absent a good explanation for his sudden change in performance, it makes sense to put more trust in Johansen's 164 good games during the previous two seasons than in 32 bad ones this season -- and keep him. Otherwise, Columbus risks trading away a solid, 23-year-old top-six forward who blossoms into a 70-plus-point player for many years to come. And that's just the kind of uncertainty of which teams like the Predators should be prepared to take advantage.