Hockey analytics pioneer Rob Vollman is ESPN Insider's armchair GM this season, exploring how modern statistics can inform front-office decisions.
Editor's note: The two sides reached an agreement on Oct. 6 that will reportedly pay Johansen $3 million this season and next, and $6 million in 2016-17.
Based on last season's breakout, Ryan Johansen is worth around $5.5 million per season right now, with a future upside in the range of $6.0 million to $6.8 million, like the very best of his closest comparables, Anze Kopitar, Patrice Bergeron, David Backes and Joe Pavelski. If Columbus is unprepared to pay for a player of that potential -- the Blue Jackets have thus far rebuffed the offer of $5 million per season from the Johansen side, according to ESPN's Pierre LeBrun -- then there could be several NHL teams that are, via an offer sheet.
These are the conclusion I've reached after a close look at the underlying analytics. In fairness, there are a lot of locker-room factors and on-ice intangibles that an outsider with a spreadsheet could never measure -- but the stats can sometimes be an illuminating starting point.
Ideally, you want to pay a guy absolutely no more than what similar players make, and even then, only if such a player can provide enough value to your specific team for that kind of a salary. Although his first two seasons were forgettable, Johansen's breakout season at age 21 places him near the top third of his usage-based peers -- very few of whom established themselves this early in their careers.
Columbus has great depth at center, but is lacking in the top-end talent that Johansen represents. If the Blue Jackets are prepared to go forward without him, there are a few teams with an even greater need for his services, and the overall talent to minimize the value of the compensatory draft picks they'd give up if Columbus didn't match the offer sheet.
Let's start by identifying what Johansen brings, what that costs, and then in which NHL cities he might fit best (if not Columbus).
Johansen's usage: Power vs. power
Johansen ranked first among Columbus forwards in even-strength ice time, second in the percentage of shifts he was assigned in the defensive zone, and third in the quality of competition. That means he was used against top opponents in both zones, in the prototypical power-vs.-power role.
The following player usage chart includes all the players across the league used in a comparable role, as determined when plugging those three factors into a tool built by Matt Cane of Puck++.
While each of these 18 players is used similarly, the circles indicate how well each player's team does possessionwise, relative to the rest of the team, when the given player is on the ice. The Blue Jackets controlled the play 50.7 percent of the time when Johansen was on the ice, for example, and 49.3 percent when he wasn't, resulting in a small, shaded circle. Players who gave their teams a bigger advantage have larger shaded circles, and those who didn't provide an advantage have white circles.
What does all of this mean? Basically, if the Blue Jackets wanted someone to play the same role as Johansen, and to still enjoy the same advantage he gives them (or better), then they would have to turn to Kopitar, Bergeron, Backes, Pavelski, Logan Couture, Kyle Turris or Mikael Backlund. Most of these players are absolutely not available for trade, and four of these players are already being paid in the $6.0 million to $6.8 million range. The exceptions include Backes, who has a cap hit of $4.5 million, and 25-year-old pivots Kyle Turris and Mikael Backlund, who carry cap hits of $3.5 million and $1.5 million, respectively. Quick: Call Calgary!
Of course, Turris and Backlund don't score at the same rate as everybody else, either. Johansen's scoring rate of 2.2 points per 60 minutes ranks sixth out of these 18 players, which is right in line with Kopitar, Pavelski, Backes and Patrick Marleau, and just a step back from Bergeron.
One factor that isn't included in this analysis is the quality of each player's linemates. While the aforementioned stars got to play with the likes of Justin Williams, Brad Marchand, Joe Thornton and Alexander Steen, Johansen played 49 percent of his minutes this past season with R.J. Umberger -- according to Hockey Analysis -- 48.6 percent with Nick Foligno and 35.2 percent with Boone Jenner. Health issues for Nathan Horton meant that the team's burgeoning topflight center skated only 17.6 percent of his ice time with the highly paid winger. It's perfectly reasonable to argue that with better linemates and continued development, the 22-year-old could rise into the esteemed peer group whose surface he is scratching.
Possible destinations
If you take Johansen out of the equation, Columbus would rank 23rd in the league in the combined goals versus threshold (GVT, explained here) of its top two centers, Brandon Dubinsky and Artem Anisimov, as displayed at right.
Only one of the seven teams ranked lower than the Blue Jackets in this scenario made the playoffs last season, the Minnesota Wild. If a team were to extend Johansen an offer sheet, Minnesota is the destination that would make the most sense.
Johansen may have a bigger impact on a basement dweller like the Florida Panthers, Buffalo Sabres, Arizona Coyotes, Edmonton Oilers or Calgary Flames, but no team would be advised to give up a potential Connor McDavid draft pick in exchange for him; any offer sheet between $3,364,391 and $5,046,585 per season would require the team sending its first-round pick in the 2015 draft to Columbus if the Blue Jackets didn't match. Note that the Flames did risk their 2013 first-rounder (which wound up being Sean Monahan) with an offer sheet for Ryan O'Reilly.
Where an offer sheet gets most interesting is if it comes from a playoff bubble team like the Winnipeg Jets. A strong center to play with Evander Kane and Blake Wheeler could be just enough to propel the Jets into the postseason, and out of a lottery pick. The same reasoning might apply to the Washington Capitals and Vancouver Canucks, if they could clear up the cap space to do it.
What should happen
Even an ambassador of hockey analytics like me isn't always inclined to play "moneypuck" when dealing with a potential franchise player. While exploiting market inefficiencies is a great strategy to pursue while filling out the bottom six, it's not unreasonable to pay game-changing talents at a rate close to what they demand.
Players proven to perform at Johansen's level cost $6.0 million per season or more, and they don't grow on trees. When you've got one, pay him. While this type of contract does mean the team is paying for potential, it may well wind up looking like a bargain if Johansen -- and the NHL salary cap -- continues on an upward trajectory.
That's why at least a handful of teams should be seriously considering extending Johansen an offer sheet right now, most notably Minnesota or Winnipeg, with which he could have the biggest impact with the lowest risk of giving up a Connor McDavid pick.
But unless the offer is made from a basement dweller and/or the offer exceeds the point where a second first-round draft pick is added to the compensatory package -- more than $6,728,781 per season -- the Blue Jackets would be wise to match.