The dream, in the 14-team NFL playoff era, is one division getting all four teams into the postseason. It hasn't happened yet, but we've been close. The AFC West and the NFC North each put three in the playoffs last season. The AFC North did the same the year before, when all four of its teams had winning records but the 9-8 Bengals missed the postseason. In 2022, the NFC East, if you can believe it, came the closest when Washington went 8-8-1 and missed the playoffs by half a game.
Someday, this will happen. And when it does, there will be no debate about which of the league's eight divisions is the best. Until then, when we do our annual ranking of the divisions, we have a debate.
In this exercise, we tend to highlight the way ESPN's Football Power Index ranks the divisions, but we don't just lean all the way into that. What would be the fun of that? Anyone can just look up the FPI and sort it from highest to lowest.
So, given that the goal is for one division to go for 4-for-4, that's the way we've decided to do our division rankings for 2025: Rank them in order of most to least likely to put all four teams in the playoffs. This is where it drifts into the realm of opinion, which means you get to yell at me online that I'm wrong. So enjoy that.
Jump to a division ...
AFC: East | West | North | South
NFC: East | West | North | South
1. NFC North
Combined FPI rating: 7.8 overall (first)
Detroit Lions: 5.7 (second in NFL)
Green Bay Packers: 4.6 (third)
Minnesota Vikings: minus-1.1 (19th)
Chicago Bears: minus-1.4 (20th)
Through five weeks, this is the only division in which no team has a losing record. The top three teams have positive point differentials and all made the 2024 postseason, with Detroit and Minnesota posting two of the three best records in the entire league.
The Bears, the only NFC North team to miss the postseason in 2024, look very much improved under new coach Ben Johnson. And if Caleb Williams is really taking the next step as a quarterback, they could be a surprise team in the second half.
FPI is obviously concerned about the Vikings' quarterback situation, as they are 25th in offense but fourth in defense. Kevin O'Connell's history as Minnesota's coach tells us we shouldn't be concerned. Plus, FPI rates the Vikings' remaining schedule are the fourth easiest in the league.
This division has two of the top three teams by overall FPI, including a couple of teams that have reason to believe they'll improve the rest of the way. Of all eight divisions, this one feels most likely to put all of its teams into the postseason.
2. NFC West
Combined FPI rating: 5.1 overall (third)
Los Angeles Rams: 3.1 (seventh in NFL)
San Francisco 49ers: 2.3 (10th)
Seattle Seahawks: 1.4 (13th)
Arizona Cardinals: minus-1.7 (22nd)
There's no such thing as a single loss bad enough to consider folding an entire franchise, but if there were, the Cardinals' loss to Tennessee would probably be it. They would have been up 28-6 in the fourth quarter if running back Emari Demercado hadn't inexplicably dropped the ball on the 1-yard line after running 71 yards. They were still up by nine with less than five minutes left and intercepted a pass in the red zone only to see the Titans score a touchdown on that same play.
The number of things that had to go incredibly wrong to make the Cardinals 2-3 instead of 3-2 is mind-boggling. Yet, 2-3 they are, having lost three straight games by a combined five points after an encouraging 2-0 start. Are the Cardinals the best last-place team in the league right now? They don't seem to be terrible, but there are some key flaws preventing them from looking like a true contender in a division where all four teams should be.
The 49ers, decimated with injuries, are nonetheless 4-1 after last Thursday night's thrilling victory over the Rams. Los Angeles is probably a blocked field goal and a Kyren Williams fumble away from being 5-0. The Seahawks looked as good as any of the four before losing a shootout against the Buccaneers on Sunday, with half their defense out with injuries.
FPI ranks Arizona's remaining schedule the easiest in the league, Seattle's the ninth easiest and San Francisco's the 11th easiest. If the Cardinals can cut out the ridiculous mistakes, this is still a division whose teams could finish in any order, and seeing them all in the postseason wouldn't be a huge surprise.
3. AFC West
Combined FPI rating: 6.7 overall (second)
Kansas City Chiefs: 6.1 (first in NFL)
Denver Broncos: 2.9 (eighth)
Los Angeles Chargers: 1.6 (12th)
Las Vegas Raiders: minus-3.9 (26th)
We slid the AFC West here because the Raiders feel a lot less likely to turn around their season than the Cardinals. And once again, the purpose of this exercise is to rank these divisions in order of which is most likely to put all four teams in the playoffs. The Raiders, who have the 27th-ranked offense by FPI, don't seem to have a lot of avenues for improvement in that area. Their tight ends are all hurt, their offensive line in disarray, and quarterback Geno Smith is turning the ball over at a ludicrous rate (0.7 TD-INT ratio, tied for second worst).
FPI is predictive, so it does know about the Chargers' injuries and dropped them into third place. There's a lot to like about quarterback Justin Herbert and the Chargers in Year 2 of the Jim Harbaugh program, but without their offensive tackles and their top two running backs, it's going to be tough for them to hang with Denver and Kansas City. The Broncos have the third-ranked defense by FPI, and the Chiefs, believe it or not, have the top-ranked offense to go with the seventh-ranked defense, which explains their standing at the overall top of the FPI ranks in spite of their 2-3 record.
Rich Eisen discusses when Joe Flacco will be ready to start at quarterback for the Bengals.
Worrying about the Chiefs' chances to make the playoffs feels like wasted energy in the year 2025, so we won't do it. But they are 2-3, which is the worst record of any FPI division leader. I think it's fair to have some questions about the consistency and sustainability of Denver's offense (ranked 13th by FPI), as well as the Chargers' health situation. So with all of that in mind, it feels like the AFC West belongs just behind the NFC West in these rankings, regardless of the fact that FPI sees it differently.
4. NFC East
Combined FPI rating: 2.1 overall (fourth)
Philadelphia Eagles: 4.3 (fourth in NFL)
Washington Commanders: 3.5 (sixth)
Dallas Cowboys: 1.3 (15th)
New York Giants: minus-7.0 (30th)
There's a lot going on here. The Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champions and have FPI's No. 1 defense by a decent margin over second-place Houston. But they also have the 11th-best offense (which feels generous, honestly) and the toughest remaining schedule, and they are the defending champions in a division that hasn't had a repeat winner in 21 years. People laugh when I bring that up, but the fact is something literally always happens, just as it did to the Eagles two years ago when that streak was on the verge of ending.
The Commanders, led by sensational second-year QB Jayden Daniels, have the No. 5 offense, the No. 18 defense and the eighth-easiest remaining schedule. The Cowboys, who rank fourth in FPI offensively but 31st in FPI defensively, have the exact kind of Jekyll and Hyde look you'd expect from a team with that description. And the Giants, who have consistently been one of the league's worst teams for more than a decade, are last in FPI by offense and 23rd in FPI by defense. They have already turned the operation over to rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, with the fifth-hardest remaining schedule and no Malik Nabers (the wide receiver has a torn ACL).
Philly and Washington each carry as much upside as any team in the league, and Dallas could be dangerous if it gets the defense together. But the Giants drag this division out of contention for the top spot, as they feel very, very far away from being a playoff team.
5. AFC North
Combined FPI rating: minus-12.2 overall (eighth)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.2 (16th in NFL)
Baltimore Ravens: minus-1.6 (21st)
Cleveland Browns: minus-3.7 (25th)
Cincinnati Bengals: minus-7.1 (31st)
So here is where FPI and I diverge sharply. FPI has this rated as the worst division in the league, and I get it. The Steelers have the worst FPI rating of any first-place team outside of the Jaguars, who are tied for first in the AFC South, but the Mike Tomlin Steelers always seem to outperform expectations. While I expect Pittsburgh to come down to Earth a bit, it's foolish to write off the team's chances to make the playoffs.
The Ravens are 1-4, but they have the best FPI of any team that has yet to win its second game. Baltimore is injury-ravaged, but we don't expect quarterback Lamar Jackson, safety Kyle Hamilton and the bulk of its sidelined stars to be out long term. The Ravens have a chance to recover, and they have the pedigree for us to believe they will. The Browns are 29th offensively in FPI, but they are an encouraging eighth on defense and have given some good teams fits (including beating the Packers).
And then we have the Bengals, who rank 26th in FPI on defense and are ahead of only the Giants in FPI on offense. The Bengals' ratings have cratered, as you might expect, in the wake of quarterback Joe Burrow's turf toe injury. But they are 2-3, which puts them in position to recover if they exceed some expectations. The Hail Mary trade for Joe Flacco earlier this week signals a team that doesn't want to give up on its season after three straight losses with Jake Browning under center. Cincinnati still has a lot of great players in key spots, and if Flacco (or someone else) can just stabilize the QB position before Burrow possibly returns near the end of the season, it could hang around .500 and remain in the playoff race.
The overall caliber of the three divisions behind the AFC North on this list might be better. But if we're talking about a division that could, if a lot of things break right, put all of its teams in the playoffs, even the worst teams here have enough going for them that there's hope for a turnaround.
6. AFC South
Combined FPI rating: minus-3.6 (fifth)
Indianapolis Colts: 2.8 (ninth in NFL)
Houston Texans: 1.8 (11th)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.0 (17th)
Tennessee Titans: minus-8.2 (32nd)
To view this division as one of the best in the league, you have to convince yourself that what you're seeing in key spots is not a mirage. Are the Colts really one of the 10 best teams in the NFL, or is the Daniel Jones ship destined to run aground as it has so many times in the past? Are the Texans rebounding after an 0-3 start, or is their No. 21 FPI offense bad enough to sink their second-ranked defense?
What about the Jaguars' hot start? They are 4-1 thanks to an opportunistic defense that has already delivered more takeaways (14) than all of last season (9). Jacksonville's defense still gets a middling No. 17 ranking from FPI, and its work-in-progress offense ranks 16th. FPI still has the Jags in the middle of the pack, but their current record gives them a strong mathematical chance to get into the postseason.
Tennessee ranks 30th on offense and 29th on defense. And if you believe the Titans have a chance to recover from 1-4, it's likely because you think QB Cam Ward is special and could start to show a Jayden Daniels-C.J. Stroud type of impact in his rookie season. There are enough sustainability questions here to keep the AFC South out of the top half of this list, and the Titans probably won't get it together in time to really threaten for a playoff spot.
7. AFC East
Combined FPI rating: minus-5.2 (sixth)
Buffalo Bills: 4.2 (fifth in NFL)
New England Patriots: minus-0.2 (18th)
Miami Dolphins: minus-3.6 (24th)
New York Jets: minus-5.6 (28th)
It was close between these final two divisions, though having watched the Jets in person Sunday, it was pretty hard not to rank the AFC East dead last. Buffalo and Tampa Bay are top contenders for the Super Bowl in their respective conferences, but I think the bottom two teams in these divisions are among the very worst in the league. So, the tiebreaker for me was between the No. 2 teams in the AFC East and the NFC South. And after the Patriots beat the Bills on Sunday night, I'm giving New England the slightest edge over the Falcons.
Buffalo is third in FPI on offense but just 13th on defense. Coach Sean McDermott's record of turning things around after a slow start on defense warrants giving the team the benefit of the doubt, as does Buffalo's 31st-ranked strength of schedule. New England's schedule is nearly as easy, and the Patriots are 3-2 in spite of an incomprehensible five turnovers against the Steelers in Week 3. Miami is last in FPI on defense, and the Jets are not far ahead at No. 30; neither has a top-half offense to help offset that.
The Jets are the only team in the NFL without a win and the only one without a takeaway on defense. They have been absolutely atrocious in almost every way, leading the NFL with a minus-eight turnover differential and ranking as one of the most penalized teams. I'm going to stop writing now before I change my mind and rank this division last just for the sins of its worst team.
8. NFC South
Combined FPI rating: minus-11.5 (seventh)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1.4 (14th)
Atlanta Falcons: minus-2.0 (23rd)
Carolina Panthers: minus-4.6 (27th)
New Orleans Saints: minus-6.3 (29th)
Tampa Bay has four close-as-can-be victories amid the kind of rotten injury luck that is sinking teams such as Baltimore and Cincinnati. The Bucs rank ninth in FPI offense and a surprisingly low 22nd on defense. They're also a four-time defending division champion with reason to believe their offense will get healthier moving forward.
The Bucs know how to make the playoffs. The Falcons, well, we're going to have to see it to believe it. They had a very encouraging offensive performance against Washington before going on a bye in Week 5, but FPI still puts them in the middle of the pack in both offense and defense. We need more information on whether quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is really up for this and whether coordinator Jeff Ulbrich's defense can sustain the kind of improvement it has shown.
There are serious questions in Carolina around the offense and quarterback Bryce Young. The Panthers are 22nd in FPI on offense and 27th on defense, not offering a ton of short-term hope. Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler is actually playing better than a lot of people realize, but the roster just doesn't have a ton of top talent. FPI also has New Orleans as a bottom-five team on both offense and defense (as well as a fairly distant 32nd in special teams, which isn't helping anything).
This division will get more respect if Atlanta can establish itself as a real playoff contender. Until then, it's the Bucs and everyone else. Tampa Bay is still hoping this is the year it can get back to being something more than just a perennial winner of one of the worst divisions.