EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- I stopped by MetLife Stadium on Sunday to cover Cowboys-Jets, and I don't think it's an overreaction to say the 2025 Jets probably aren't going to contend for a playoff spot. "Work in progress" is probably the most charitable way to describe coach Aaron Glenn's bunch. But the Cowboys will take the win, and it's not an overreaction to say that Dallas' defense played its best game of the season so far. Or that quarterback Dak Prescott is playing at an extremely high level.
But that's enough from that game. This is Week 5, and the outlines of the overreactions are starting to get a little bit clearer. By now it's safe to believe the Colts are good, the Lions are still a top contender and the Ravens are in a heap of trouble. We have enough evidence now that we can talk with some confidence about what these teams are and what they aren't.
With that in mind, let's start the Week 5 overreactions column -- where we sort through the weekly overreactions to try to figure out which ones might hold up and which ones are mirages -- with the first game of the week, a thrilling overtime NFC West matchup from Thursday night.
Jump to:
Are 49ers true NFC contenders?
Is Nik Bonitto the DPOY favorite?
A.J. Brown will force a midseason trade?
Baker Mayfield in the MVP mix?
Fantasy overreactions!
The 49ers are a top NFC contender once again
If you spent Thursday afternoon and early evening wondering whether the 49ers would be able to come up with 11 players to suit up against the Rams that night, you probably weren't alone. San Francisco rolled into Week 5 as beaten up as any team in the league, missing its starting quarterback, top three receivers, Pro Bowl tight end and star edge rusher, to name a few.
Backup quarterback Mac Jones was starting to look like the Black Knight from "Monty Python and the Holy Grail" as the game went along, but he kept putting himself back together and going back into the game. The Niners won in overtime to improve to 4-1, dropping the Rams to 3-2, and now are in first place in their division with victories over each of the other three division contenders.
Tom Pelissero joins "The Rich Eisen Show" to recap the 49ers' gritty win over the Rams on Thursday night.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Nick Bosa being out for the season might be what keeps the Niners from being the type of elite Super Bowl contender they were a couple of years ago, when they held a lead in overtime of Super Bowl LVIII before losing to Kansas City. But other than that, they're pretty much guaranteed to get healthier, and their schedule does not appear to get harder. They have a tough road game at Tampa Bay next weekend, but after that they play only two more games against teams that made last year's playoffs, and the last of those games is Nov. 9.
San Francisco's road to the playoffs looks as smooth as anyone's, and if it gets some of those key players back, it has a real chance to contend for the NFC's top seed. Again, the Niners are in first place in what might be the league's toughest division, and they already have wins over the Seahawks and Rams on the road. The 49ers have had a brutally difficult start to the season in terms of what has happened to them. But so far they've been able to overcome it, which sets them up well the rest of the way.
Nik Bonitto is going to win Defensive Player of the Year
The biggest win of Sunday's early window was the Broncos' comeback from 14 down in the fourth quarter to hand the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles their first loss of the season. The Denver defense was a huge part of it, and Bonitto led the way with 2.5 sacks. He now has six sacks in his past three games and seven for the season as the Denver defense is rounding into the form that was expected of it before the campaign started.
Bonitto finished ninth in the Defensive Player of the Year voting last season, when his teammate, cornerback Pat Surtain II, won the award. And right now Bonitto is on pace to easily surpass his 2024 total of 13.5 sacks -- not to mention the single-season NFL record of 22.5 sacks.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Denver's defense looks like an elite unit, and the next couple of weeks present it with potential stat-padding games against the Jets and Giants. The Broncos have stumbled a little bit in the early going and are just 3-2. But they were a playoff team last season and have reasons to believe they can get on a roll and contend again this season, even in the tough AFC West.
If they push the Chiefs for the division title or even win it, voters will be looking for awards candidates from the Broncos' roster. Bonitto is off to the type of start that awards front-runners have.
A.J. Brown will force Eagles to deal him by trade deadline
The flip side of the Broncos' big win was a bitter loss for the Eagles, who carried a 17-3 lead into the fourth quarter at home and couldn't add to it or hold on. Philly's offense has been inconsistent at best this season, and Brown has let his frustrations be known -- professionally and respectfully, of course, but all the same.
Sunday saw teammate DeVonta Smith catch eight passes for 114 yards, but Brown had only five catches for 43 yards on eight targets. Brown is being paid like one of the top receivers in the league but isn't being used like one, and he has made it clear he'd like to be more involved -- not to pad his stats, but because he thinks he can help make the offense better and more consistent. He's not wrong, but right now Philly still isn't on track on that side of the ball.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The Eagles aren't trading Brown, and from what I understand he doesn't want them to trade him. This is a team that won the Super Bowl eight months ago and knows how to weather early-season issues and come out on top. It might feel a little rough right now, but any time there has been a flicker of discontent around Brown, he has taken ownership of his frustrations and made it clear, internally and externally, that he's all about whatever it takes to help the team win.
The Eagles didn't win Sunday, and last year's superstar, running back Saquon Barkley, had only 30 rushing yards on six carries (though he had three catches for 58 yards and a touchdown). So obviously things need to be tweaked if this Eagles offense is going to do what it needs to do. Maybe not being undefeated anymore will help convince Eagles coaches that something needs to change before this season starts looking more like their 2023 collapse than their 2024 triumph.
Baker Mayfield is going to be in the MVP mix
The 4-1 Buccaneers are the most exciting team in the NFL. In each of their four wins, they scored the winning points in the final minute of the game, and in their only loss they were driving in a two-minute drill that came up short.
Mayfield was unbelievable Sunday, completing 29-of-33 passes for 379 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a back-and-forth, thrilling victory over Seattle. He has 10 touchdown passes and one interception in five games. It's also worth noting that Mayfield, in his third season in Tampa Bay, is already on his third offense coordinator because the previous two are now head coaches elsewhere.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Josh Allen likely will have something to say about this, as could players such as Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, Jonathan Taylor, Daniel Jones (seriously!), and Prescott if the Cowboys make the playoffs. It's obviously way too early to forecast an MVP, but it'd be ridiculous not to include Mayfield in the discussion.
The Bucs have a brutal list of injuries for a 4-1 team. They have two starting offensive linemen out with injuries, another (left tackle Tristan Wirfs) who missed the first three games of the season and another (Mike Jordan) who was filling in admirably before he got hurt. Top receiver Mike Evans has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury. Fellow wideout Chris Godwin missed the first three weeks coming back from last year's season-ending ankle injury. Wide receiver Jalen McMillan, so promising as a rookie in 2024, is out until at least late in the season. Starting running back Bucky Irving missed Sunday's game with an injury. The defense is down three starters.
The Bucs have no business being 4-1. But their infrastructure and culture are as solid as any team's, and Mayfield is a huge part of that. He has gone from journeyman to stabilizing force in three years in Tampa, where the team is pushing for a fifth straight division title and (it hopes) even more this time.
Fantasy Overreactions!
You must pick up Rico Dowdle: NOT AN OVERREACTION. With Carolina starting running back Chuba Hubbard missing the game because of injury, Dowdle rushed for 206 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries in the Panthers' victory over Miami. Hubbard will be back, and the team gave him a big contract extension last year, but it also signed Dowdle in free agency this year, and Hubbard's contract has no guaranteed money past 2025. If you have Hubbard on your roster, Dowdle is a must-stash even when Hubbard returns. If you don't, pick up Dowdle anyway because you never know. Maybe the Hubbard manager in your league will overpay for Dowdle in a trade.
You must pick up Ryan Flournoy: OVERREACTION. Flournoy had a big game for the Cowboys with CeeDee Lamb and KaVontae Turpin out with injuries, racking up 114 yards on six catches in Dallas' victory over the Jets. That's awesome for his confidence and the Cowboys' depth. But that role isn't going to hold up once those guys get back. And even if they aren't back next week, Flournoy is still third in line behind George Pickens and Jalen Tolbert, not to mention tight end Jake Ferguson. You can leave Flournoy on waivers in standard-size leagues.
Derrick Henry is not an RB1 if Lamar Jackson is out: NOT AN OVERREACTION. If you have Henry, you're still playing him, and you can't trade him at his current value. But obviously the threat of Jackson as a runner makes things easier on Henry, and not having Jackson means teams can key on the veteran running back. But other than Week 1, Henry hasn't been an RB1 this season even with Jackson in the lineup. Adjust expectations. This season is slipping away from the Ravens in a hurry.
Quinshon Judkins will be a first-round fantasy pick in 2026: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Judkins is a seriously tough runner, which he showed Sunday in London against a tough Vikings defense. He didn't sign his rookie contract until the start of the season because of off-field legal issues stemming from an allegation of domestic violence in July. And while those could still result in him being suspended at some point this season or next, Judkins is a guy you're going to want in your lineup when he's in Cleveland's. He'll only get better.
Fantasy managers should cash in on Emeka Egbuka's max trade value: OVERREACTION. If you're selling, I want in. This kid is not a flash in the pan, and I don't think his role is going to shrink very much once Evans is back from injury. Egbuka is a first-round pick who scores a touchdown every week. The team loves him. The quarterback loves him. He can play any of the WR positions in Tampa Bay's offense, and he's a building block for their future. Hold or try to obtain.