Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value.
Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives to how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.
These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.
Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.
With that, let's dive in to Week 12. Odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook and subject to change. 
Note: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.
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Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props
Game bets
Kansas City Chiefs to cover -3.5 (-105) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Bowen: A key matchup in this game to watch? It's the Chiefs' ability to heat up the pocket against Daniel Jones. When pressured this season, Jones has a 52.2 QBR, and his off-target rate jumps to 21.1%. I see the Chiefs -- who have a top-10 blitz rate -- dictating the flow of this game from a defensive perspective. Take them to cover the 3.5 points at Arrowhead.
Colts team total OVER 23.5 (-115)
Solak: Maybe I'm getting trapped by this line, but I'm happy to fall into the pit. The Colts are averaging a whopping 3.17 points per drive on the season, yet have a total of only 23.5 total points against a respectable, but unspectacular Kansas City Chiefs defense. Kansas City is seventh in points per drive allowed, yes -- but they're 12th in first down conversion rate and 14th in success rate. Not a juggernaut group. The Colts are third in red zone touchdown rate and first in red zone score rate. I'm confident they'll punch it in for seven when they get downfield.
With the Chiefs' backs against the wall, an inspired effort is expected from the offense, which hasn't been doing its part in recent weeks. But the defense doesn't have the tools to handle the Colts' offense. Daniel Jones has struggled against defenses with speedy edge rushers who quickly make him reset in the pocket -- that's not Kansas City. It's worth noting that Jones was limited in Thursday practice by a calf injury, but the Indianapolis beat seems to think it was a technicality more than anything else.
I like the team total best because the Colts will almost certainly still look to score even if they're nursing a second-half lead. You can never have a big enough cushion on the scoreboard against Patrick Mahomes.
Detroit Lions to cover -10 (-115) vs. New York Giants
Solak: This is an important line to get now, as it has moved down to 10 -- but I do not expect it to get to 9.5 unless we get surprising injury news out of Detroit. This line is already a Jaxson Dart line, and I don't think it'll move much when Dart is officially announced as active for this game. If you want to risk it for the 9.5, feel free -- I'll hit it again if 9.5s become available.
Lions coach Dan Campbell has historically been strong in this spot. Campbell is 22-9 against the spread after a loss, which the Lions suffered against the Eagles last Sunday night. The last time he failed to cover after a loss was in 2022. Campbell's Lions are also at home, where they have been much better this season. Jared Goff is averaging 0.22 EPA per dropback at home and 0.16 on the road, as the cold air affects his grip and accuracy. The Lions have played a string of tough run defenses in recent weeks -- Chiefs, Buccaneers, Vikings, Eagles -- but now get the Giants, who are giving up 1.7 rushing yards over expectation per carry. That number is the biggest single-season number in the Next Gen Stats database. Expect easy, explosive drives for Detroit -- and a Giants team that can't keep pace with that level of scoring.
Arizona Cardinals to cover +3 (-110) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Solak: This one is not for the faint of heart. The Cardinals have lost consecutive games by three scores. But both were to divisional rivals, and both were in spectacular fashion. The Cardinals went down 28-0 to the Seattle Seahawks after two strip-sack touchdowns from Seattle's defense, then they lost the turnover battle 3-0 (and gave up a 99-yard kickoff return) in their loss to the San Francisco 49ers. But before those two games, Arizona had not lost a game by more than four points. The Jaguars run extremely hot and cold, but they've been stronger at home than on the road. In their five non-home games this year (one was a neutral game in London against the Los Angeles Rams), Jacksonville is 2-3 with wins over the Mac Jones 49ers and the Las Vegas Raiders. The Cardinals will be without Marvin Harrison Jr. again, but Jacoby Brissett has proved against a large enough sample of defenses that he elevates this passing game. Brisset's Cardinals are 13th in offensive success rate and sixth in explosive pass rate, and the Jaguars' passing defense is sneakily suspect (24th in success rate) when it's not snagging turnovers. I'd only take this at +3 and pass on +2.5.
Baltimore Ravens team total OVER 29.5 (-120)
Bowen: With a matchup against a New York Jets defense giving up 28.6 points per game (27th in the league), I like the Ravens to hit the over. Look for Baltimore to script a call sheet that stretches the Jets, both horizontally and vertically, creating space for Lamar Jackson to utilize his dual-threat ability.
Seth Walder's defensive props
Tristan H. Cockcroft advocates for Carson Schwesinger to be rostered in more fantasy leagues heading into Week 12.
Offensive player props
On First Take, Stephen A. Smith, Cam Newton and Ryan Clark preview the upcoming Week 12 matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys.
Drake Maye passing yards OVER 252.5 (-115)
Solak: Much has been made of the fact that Maye doesn't yet have a game with more than 300 yards passing. Well, he's averaging a cold 258 and has been over this particular figure in eight out of 11 games this season. Of the three games he failed to clear 252.5, two were enormous first-half blowouts, against the Carolina Panthers and Tennessee Titans, respectively. With Joe Burrow expected to return for Week 12, I don't think this will be a blowout. If anything, the Bengals might play faster as they skew to a heavier pass rate over expectation with Burrow under center. That means more snaps for Maye. Though the Bengals' run defense is quite poor, it's the passing overs that have really gotten them this season. Eight of 10 quarterbacks have gone over their closing passing yardage line against Cincinnati this season. The two that failed were Carson Wentz and Aaron Rodgers, the latter of whom left last week's game early because of a wrist injury. I expect we see Maye rip off his typical big gains through the air, and with a slightly increased dropback rate, get over this number handily.
Lamar Jackson rushing yards UNDER 34.5 (-110)
Solak: The Ravens are not asking Jackson to run this season. Jackson is averaging only 3.4 designed runs per game this season -- easily the lowest mark of his career. HIs scramble rate is down to 7.1%, well below his career average of 9.5%. He has only six scrambles in three games since he returned from injury. Leg injuries are clearly hampering Jackson, who has been listed with hamstring, knee and ankle injuries at various points this season. Typically, I'd like to hammer a rushing QB against Aaron Glenn, as his defenses typically struggle with scramblers. But in a game with a 13.5-point line, it's likely we see the Ravens nurse a large second-half lead and accordingly protect their gimpy quarterback from unnecessary usage and potential hits. I prefer the rushing yardage line to the rushing attempts line, as Jackson could still have a high scramble rate, but he might not break as many tackles as he often does, given the injuries.
Shedeur Sanders rushing yards UNDER 22.5 (-110)
Walder: Sanders' speed metrics from college blew me away. And not in a good way. Telemetry Sports uses player tracking data to create a suite of college player-level metrics, and one of them is what they call "Speed Over Expected," which compares a player's linear speed on a play to what we would expect an average player at their position to achieve on that same play. And Sanders last year was in the first percentile (second worst) in that metric. He was in the 23rd percentile in acceleration and 57th percentile in change of direction. There's more to forecasting rushing yards than just speed, but given his lack of a track record in the NFL, I think it's possible these (poor) speed scores aren't being fully baked in yet.
Jalen Hurts rushing yards OVER 29.5 (-115)
Bowen: In a Week 1 head-to-head matchup with Dallas, Hurts rushed for 62 yards on 14 carries. With Dallas playing heavy zone coverage -- getting to depth and squeezing windows -- Hurts was forced to pull the ball down as a runner. And I expect a similar defensive script from the Cowboys on Sunday, especially if Hurts is unwilling to cut it loose on middle-of-the-field throws.
Geno Smith INTs UNDER 0.5 (+160)
Walder: Yes, I'm betting on Smith's ability to not throw an interception Sunday despite having already thrown 13 picks this season. And yes, I'm making that bet when he's playing against a very good Cleveland Browns defense. But there is something different about this game than almost all other Las Vegas Raiders games -- the Raiders are favored. And by more than a field goal. That matters a ton here. Teams that are favored are more likely to be leading, and teams that are leading can afford to pass less frequently and take fewer risks when passing. As bad as Smith has been, he has had that deck stacked against him most of the time. Considering we're getting +160 on the under, my interceptions model believes this is well worth it.
Tyler Shough pass attempts UNDER 30.5 (-105)
Walder: The New Orleans Saints have run designed pass plays 63% of the time this season, 11th most in the NFL. That might make them appear to be pass-leaning, but they most certainly are not. When we adjust for game context using NFL Next Gen Stats' pass rate over expectation, we see the Saints with a minus-7% pass rate over expectation, the fourth-most run-heavy in the league. Add in the fact that the Saints are actually favored for only the second time all season, and there's a much lower chance that they'll be behind and forced to pass late in the game. My pass attempts model makes the fair price on the under -166.
Jordan Love rushing yards OVER 10.5 (-120)
Bowen: Love has topped the 20-yard rushing mark in four of his past seven games, and the Minnesota Vikings defensive identity forces quarterbacks to move. Minnesota currently has the league's highest blitz rate (44.1%), so look for Love to make plays outside of structure as a runner.
Jahmyr Gibbs receiving yards OVER 29.5 (-105)
Bowen: In the past two games, with head coach Dan Campbell calling plays, Gibbs has totaled 30 or more yards receiving in each, which includes 107 yards receiving he dropped on the Eagles' defense in Week 11. Look for Campbell to get Gibbs loose on backfield releases that isolate the New York Giants' linebackers in coverage.
Saquon Barkley receptions OVER 2.5 (-105)
Solak: Hitting RB receiving overs against Matt Eberflus' Dallas Cowboys defense has been a profitable approach all season, and catching Barkley in this game is a dream spot. Barkley's route count has been a little down in recent weeks as Tank Bigsby has been integrated into the offense and Will Shipley has returned from injury, but the Eagles played grindy, low play-count games over the past two weeks. They should have an easier time moving the ball against Dallas, which creates more dropbacks, and that creates more receiving opportunities for Barkley. The only strength of this Cowboys defense is the pass rush, and Lane Johnson is out, leaving Fred Johnson at right tackle. The Cowboys will try to win this game with early, quick pressure -- and those sorts of snaps create more RB targets on pressured dumpoffs and screens. Barkley had five targets and four receptions against the Cowboys in Week 1 when the Eagles played an average game for offensive output (24 points) on largely a neutral script. I'm expecting a similar outcome in this one.
Walder: Running backs record a reception on 8% of plays against man coverage, but that number jumps to 15% (almost double!) when facing zone. So what we've been doing all season is what we're doing here: backing running back reception overs when facing a zone-heavy defense and unders against man-heavy defenses. The Dallas Cowboys aren't running zone quite as often as they were early in the season, but they have still deployed zone coverage 74% of the time -- second most in the NFL.
Tyler Allgeier to score Anytime TD (+200)
Bowen: Allgeier has seven rushing scores on the season, and we know he will get work in the low red zone area of the field. Allgeier had a rushing touchdown last week inside the 5-yard line, and he has a total of four goal-to-go carries in his past two games. Let's bet on Allgeier to cash in on those opportunities again versus the Saints.
Tee Higgins receptions OVER 5.5 (-130)
Bowen: Higgins has had at least eight targets in four of his past five games. And those numbers should jump with Ja'Marr Chase out (suspension) for the Week 12 matchup against the Patriots. Let's take Higgins to hit the over in a game in which the Bengals could be chasing points, leading to more throwing volume from his quarterback.
Stefon Diggs receiving yards OVER 55.5 (-115)
Bowen: Diggs caught nine passes for 105 yards in a Week 11 win over the New York Jets, and he has had 17 targets over his past two games. With the steady volume, plus the positive matchup against the Bengals' defense, the over on Diggs hits this Sunday.
George Kittle receiving yards OVER 54.5 (-120)
Solak: The Panthers are surrendering a whopping 2.11 yards per route run to opposing tight ends this season -- the worst number in football. That number has been with a largely healthy defensive backfield. But for Monday night, starting LB Trevin Wallace will almost certainly be out, and it sounds as if fellow LB Christian Rozeboom will sit out the game as well. I think the best angle to attack the Panthers' depleted LB room isn't with the running game, as the Panthers' defensive line still has a big advantage over San Francisco's offensive front. Christian McCaffrey passing overs might be good, but Brock Purdy targets McCaffrey at a lower rate than Mac Jones did, so McCaffrey's numbers are still inflated. Kittle is, to me, the best option. With the big spread, I don't necessarily want to be on alternate lines. But if the Panthers keep this game close in the first quarter, I'll look for some alt lines on Kittle's receiving. Unlike most tight ends, Kittle creates explosive catches, so he can go from a quiet night to a big night in a hurry.
Travis Kelce receiving yards OVER 52.5 (-115)
Bowen: Kelce had 13 targets in Week 11 against the Denver Broncos, and he has topped the 52-yard receiving mark in six straight games. Plus, the Colts are giving up an average of 72.6 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (fourth most in the league). Let's stick with Kelce to hit the over -- again.
Devaughn Vele receiving yards UNDER 22.5 (-110)
Solak: A big, big number here for Vele, who has not cleared 22.5 receiving yards once this season. But the receiver room above Vele has been thinned. WR2 Rashid Shaheed was traded to the Seahawks, and WR3 Brandin Cooks was released this past week, leaving Vele the WR2 behind Chris Olave. The issue? Vele's 30 routes led the Saints in Week 10, even with Cooks still on the field. He had three targets, all deep downfield, but caught only one for 15 yards. The Saints use Vele as a vertical player, and those are low-percentage targets, especially against an Atlanta Falcons team with a solid CB room that wants to play tight coverage and should return Mike Hughes for this game. I expect a run-heavy and multi-TE offensive approach from the Saints, who are favored in this game and might avoid a huge lump of second-half dropbacks. Vele might be WR2, but he's only fourth in the target pecking order behind Olave, Juwan Johnson and Alvin Kamara. I'd prefer under on receptions, but 2.5 is juiced to -170. I'll be looking for under 1.5 at plus money.
Rashid Shaheed longest reception OVER 20.5 yards (-110)
Bowen: In two games with the Seahawks, Shaheed has a vertical route rate of 56.4%. Big number there. So, we know Shaheed is being deployed down the field at the third level. And I think he connects with quarterback Sam Darnold on a shot play throw against the Titans.