The 2025 NFL season is officially 100 days away, so I have written 100 things to know.
They are various in category -- important names to know, improved teams, salary cap considerations, jersey number analytics, bold predictions, key returners from IR, etc. You may read them all at once or, if you like, treat this like an Advent calendar and read only one every day from now until kickoff on Sept. 4. (If any of you actually do that, I will report you to the appropriate authorities.)
Here are my 100 things for 100 days before the 2025 NFL season, starting with 10 under-the-radar names.
Jump to a section:
Key names to know | Schedule features
Interesting jobs to watch | Intrusive thoughts
Most improved teams | Least improved teams
Bold predictions | Back from IR | Overtime musings
Finance items of note | Stat numbers
Jersey numbers | Final thoughts
10 names to know
They will be big deals in the 2025 season. Meet them now and get ahead of the curve.
Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Green Bay Packers
The lightbulb went on for Cooper last year, as he rose from sub-package player to 100% snap starter by season's end. From December on, I'm not sure there were five more impactful linebackers in all of football. Cooper is highly active against the run and a reliable tackler in space. He has the size and athletic ability to be a solid coverage man. After he got one All-Pro vote last season, I'd wager Cooper gets double-digit votes in 2025.
Elgton Jenkins, C, Green Bay Packers
Jenkins is one of the coolest players in the league. In six seasons, he has played at least 300 snaps at four of the five offensive line positions: both tackle spots, left guard and center. The film has been good everywhere, too -- absurd consistency. His last extensive experience at center was in 2020, but he's expected to fill that spot in 2025 after Josh Myers left for the Jets in free agency. Jenkins is in a contract dispute with the Packers right now, as he has two years left on his deal and reportedly wants his compensation to reflect his versatility. I agree with him. What a player.
Nick Caley, offensive coordinator, Houston Texans
I'm always hesitant about later branches plucked off coaching trees. The first few Sean McVay assistants probably have the goods, but the fourth, fifth and sixth options were probably in the back of the line for a reason. But Caley, who spent the past two years in the McVay incubator, was a longtime offensive coach for the Patriots before joining the Rams, so he isn't really a continuing chip off a chip off a chip off the block.
No offense was held back more by coaching errors last season than Houston's unit. If Caley is even league average as a Year 1 playcaller, expect the Texans to finally deliver on their 2024 preseason hype.
Kelee Ringo, CB, Philadelphia Eagles
The reigning Super Bowl champions used the draft to address immediate needs in their defense, which was left bare by free agent departures. But they didn't draft a cornerback until Round 5, leaving room for Ringo, a 2023 fourth-round pick, to win the starting job opposite rookie star Quinyon Mitchell. Ringo has played fewer than 400 defensive snaps in his two seasons as a pro, but he's just turning 23 this summer -- the same age as some rookies. He has elite athletic traits to boot. If Ringo is ready for his moment, the Eagles' defense looks adequately and rapidly retooled for another postseason push.
Al Golden, defensive coordinator, Cincinnati Bengals
Imagine last season's Bengals with a league-average defense. That's not just a playoff team. That's a team that could have beaten the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs or any other AFC contender in any playoff environment. The Bengals' defensive depth chart remains a substantial impediment to their ascension to league average, but outgoing coordinator Lou Anarumo ran a system renowned for its complexity and need for quality communication, something that many young defenders in Cincinnati struggled to grasp.
Could Golden, who just worked with young players for three years at Notre Dame, offer a quick boost to early draft picks like Dax Hill or Myles Murphy by simplifying their roles? I'm not betting on a big leap in the Bengals' defense, but it is at least in the cards.
RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos
If you're a fantasy player, you already know what I'm about to tell you, but let's catch everyone else up to speed. The Broncos, who have an incredible offensive line and a coach historically willing to involve the running back in the passing game, drafted Harvey in the second round. The 24-year-old carried a big load at UCF, so he's presumably pro-ready for the primary role in the backfield, and he showed some talent in the passing game. The Broncos need better performances from all their non-Courtland Sutton playmakers, and Harvey is first in line to provide that jump.
Nate Wiggins, CB, Baltimore Ravens
Wiggins was nominally the Ravens' CB2 last season, starting as a rookie opposite veteran Brandon Stephens. But he was functionally their CB1. Highly competitive and physical at the line of scrimmage, Wiggins played his best ball against his best opponents (Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Malik Nabers). He wasn't perfect, but rookie corners rarely are. If he plays with greater consistency, he'll be considered one of the league's better starting corners. And the team is banking on that improvement because its outside corner depth behind Wiggins is perilously thin. He needs to be the guy.
Josh Grizzard, OC, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have achieved a rare and wonderful thing this offseason: They are slated to return all 11 starters from their 2024 offense. The only change is on the headset. Liam Coen left for the Jaguars' head coaching job, and Grizzard was elevated from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator.
Grizzard has had a quick rise in the NFL coaching ranks; he was first an offensive quality control coach with the Dolphins in 2017 and had only two years as a wide receivers coach in Miami before he got the job with the Bucs last season. At just 34 years old, and with experience under Mike McDaniel and Coen, it's fair to have "next big thing" suspicions around Grizzard. If he can keep the train chugging from last season, the Bucs should have a top-10 offense again.
Daiyan Henley, LB, Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers had a starting linebacker spot up for grabs in 2024 after Kenneth Murray Jr. signed with the Titans in free agency. Rookie Junior Colson was expected to fill it. He was the Michigan man, after all, following his coach (Jim Harbaugh) and defensive coordinator (Jesse Minter) to the big leagues. Instead, it was Henley, the 2023 third-rounder who plays much bigger than his 6-foot-1, 230-pound frame would suggest.
Henley has the instincts, quickness and tackling ability to influence the game sideline to sideline -- something many linebackers aspire to do, but few can. He got 18 All-Pro votes in 2024 and deserved more.
Deonte Banks, CB, New York Giants
Cornerback is a hard position. As a rookie in 2023, Banks looked like a rising star. (Read about Wiggins above and just switch the names.) But Banks' sophomore campaign was plagued with mental lapses, unnecessary risks and lost 50-50 balls. The Giants hit on their slot corner (Dru Phillips), added a starting safety (Jevon Holland) and snagged a new CB1 in free agency (Paulson Adebo). So a return to 2023 form for Banks could well elevate the Giants' secondary to top-10 levels. And if you start doing the math on a defense with a top-10 pass rush and a top-10 secondary ...
Nine interesting schedule features
Because that's always what we talk about in May.
In Week 1, the Chiefs play the Chargers in Brazil at 8 p.m. ET, streaming exclusively on YouTube. You get to explain to your parents (1) why there's a game on Friday night, (2) why it's in Brazil and (3) how to find it on yet another new streaming service. Congrats!
New Patriots receiver Stefon Diggs returns to Buffalo in Week 5 -- his first game at Orchard Park since he left the Bills before the 2024 season.
The Eagles and Packers play in Week 10. It's the Tush Pushers against The Guys Who Tried To Ban Tush-Pushing. I've never been more excited for an eventual fourth-and-1.
Ben Johnson's Bears meet his old Lions in Week 2. I'll bet you $100 right now the Bears score on a trick play.
Another good Bears game comes against the Cowboys in Week 3. Former Chicago head coach Matt Eberflus is the new Cowboys defensive coordinator, and expunged coaches often produce strong performances when revenge is on the table.
To that end, new Patriots coach Mike Vrabel gets his first crack at the Titans in Week 7 in Nashville. Vrabel was the Titans' head coach from 2018 to 2023.
New Steelers receiver DK Metcalf gets an early meeting with the Seahawks, facing his old team in Week 2. Metcalf clearly had financial frustrations with Seattle but got a huge contract from the Steelers as part of his offseason trade. It feels like a good chance to show the old guys why he was worth every penny.
Another revenge game, though this one may not be all that vengeful. The Panthers and 49ers play in Week 12, which pits Christian McCaffrey against his old team for the first time. I'm not sure if McCaffrey actually holds any sort of ill feelings about the Panthers, but I guess we'll find out.
I didn't realize this until I saw Jaguars reporter Michael DiRocco's note in our full schedule preview: The Jaguars and Texans haven't played since the Azeez Al-Shaair hit that ended Trevor Lawrence's 2024 season and incited a bench-clearing brawl. Well, they'll play in Week 3. Expect some pregame shenanigans and first drive tone-setting.
11 jobs with question marks
Some of them are up for grabs. Others are on hot seats.
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel
I believe two things very strongly. First, McDaniel's work building an offense around QB Tua Tagovailoa is some of the best offensive scheming in the league. Second, his offense fades against truly great defenses, in cold weather and on the road -- in short, playoff football. The Dolphins need a strong season from their defense, which could have an extremely inexperienced and shaky secondary following a Jalen Ramsey trade, to make a postseason push. Otherwise, it'll be four seasons without a playoff victory under McDaniel -- tough to defend.
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young
What a turnaround it has been for Young, who is the unquestioned starter in Carolina less than nine months after he was benched in the 2024 season. Young was miles better post-benching than he was before, but the hay isn't in the barn just yet. Starting in Week 5, Young was fourth in completion percentage over expectation (NFL Next Gen Stats) but 31st in off-target rate. That means he was connecting with his receivers on high-leverage throws deep downfield, which is explosive but also unsustainable. Confidence is high, though, and he has earned the right to build on his improvement.
Texans WR2
Entering last season, the Texans' target hierarchy was clear: Nico Collins, then Tank Dell, then Stefon Diggs, then Dalton Schultz. Entering this season, it is anything but clear. Collins and Schultz are still around, but Diggs joined the Patriots and Dell's major knee injury leaves both WR2 and WR3 spots up for grabs.
For the two open battles, the Texans drafted two rookies, both from Iowa State: Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. They'll compete with Christian Kirk for a suddenly large pile of targets. Houston desperately needs to be able to punish teams that double-cover Collins and must hit on one of those rookies -- or see a big post-injury resurgence from Kirk -- to pull it off.
Colts GM Chris Ballard
The Colts have not made the playoffs in the past four seasons and have not won a playoff game in the past six seasons, all under Ballard's direction. They have poured plenty of resources into the passing attack over the past few offseasons. Aside from drafting QB Anthony Richardson, the Colts spent early picks on WR Josh Downs (third round), WR Alec Pierce (second round), WR Adonai Mitchell (second round) and TE Tyler Warren (first round). They extended Michael Pittman Jr. They signed Daniel Jones.
If the Colts cannot figure out a passing offense this season, this time next year is ripe for a hard reset at all key positions: quarterback, head coach and even general manager.
Colts quarterback
It's rare to see an actual open camp battle at quarterback, but that's what we've got here in Indianapolis. The camp battle format -- throws against air with no live tackling or pass rush -- skews toward Daniel Jones, who also has the advantage of being the new kid on the block. But Anthony Richardson still has the potential to be the future of the franchise, whereas Jones would be a stopgap. Be sure to put your notifications on for Colts reporter Stephen Holder. This is going to be a barn burner!
Saints quarterback
Unlike the Colts' battle, I'm doubtful that this one is actually real. But according to new coach Kellen Moore, second-year pro Spencer Rattler will fight 2025 draft selection Tyler Shough for the QB1 spot following Derek Carr's retirement.
The tea leaves read to me thusly: The Saints were happy to spend another year with Carr at the helm, but then they got the bad news about his throwing shoulder, suspected his retirement and prioritized an early quarterback selection with Shough at No. 40. This coaching staff was not around when Rattler was drafted, and if it had real interest in him as a developmental starter, it wouldn't have taken Shough as highly as it did.
Chiefs left tackle
I'm not sure when the Chiefs last had a bona fide good left tackle. It was potentially Orlando Brown Jr. in the 2022 season, but I'd argue he's more around league average. Kansas City would do anything for an average left tackle, however, given the way the position has limited the offense in the past couple of seasons.
The Chiefs took two high-reward swings with the signing of Jaylon Moore and drafting of Josh Simmons, but both are also high-risk. Moore wasn't a starter in San Francisco, and Simmons is coming off a major knee injury at Ohio State. Regardless, the Chiefs are likely -- but not guaranteed -- to get the functional play they so desperately need.
Bengals right guard
Staying on our theme of AFC contenders and key offensive line positions, the Bengals are filling the shoes of Alex Cappa (released as a cap casualty) with either incumbent Cody Ford or free agent addition Lucas Patrick. Neither is a thrilling option, which leaves the door open for rookie third-rounder Dylan Fairchild to win the spot. Guard play was a big issue for this team last season, and Joe Burrow's injury history makes poor pass protection feel all the more concerning.
Steelers quarterback
Don't actually watch this job. Whatever the result, it will be too painful to even observe. Mason Rudolph against Skylar Thompson and Will Howard with the hope that Aaron Rodgers shows up? I could never.
Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski
I have no idea what the goalposts are for Stefanski this season, but the team was 3-14 last year, and another three-win season wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. I will say this with complete conviction: Stefanski seems like an excellent veteran OC retread option if and when the Browns clean house. He has made the best out of the Browns' QB carousel and navigated major offensive injuries over the past two seasons.
Cowboys running back
The Cowboys were seemingly unsatisfied with their committee approach featuring Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott last season. But for some reason beyond my understanding, they are set to enter camp with a committee featuring Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders and rookie fifth-rounder Jaydon Blue. Surely this year the Cowboys won't be punished by not having a back they can trust!
14 intrusive thoughts
These are things I think I think, but I do not yet know exactly how to express them. Do not judge me.
There are two teams that could reasonably project as having the best offensive line and the best defense for the 2025 season: Minnesota and Denver. As such, Minnesota and Denver register as "Super Bowl dark horses" on my "What sort of contender are you?" scale before I even know anything about their respective young quarterbacks.
Here is a list of things I believe:
Garrett Wilson is the best receiver Justin Fields has played with in his NFL career.
Wilson is the WR1 with the biggest gap in quality between him and his WR2 in the entire league.
Wilson has played mostly on hard mode (a lot of press coverage, downfield routes, contested balls, etc.), and new coordinator Tanner Engstrand will prioritize getting him easier targets.
As such, I have a nagging suspicion that Wilson will lead the league in receiving yards in 2025.
Ryan Clark is intrigued to see if Aaron Glenn and Justin Fields can make their marks with the Jets.
ESPN BET ranks the most likely NFC representatives for the Super Bowl in this order: Eagles, Lions, 49ers, Commanders, Packers, Rams, Vikings and Buccaneers.
I would have the Buccaneers over every team besides the Eagles. Maybe tied with the Lions and Rams, but no lower than that.
If the Dolphins trade Jalen Ramsey, their starting secondary will be Storm Duck and Cam Smith at outside corner, Kader Kohou in the nickel and Ashtyn Davis and Ifeatu Melifonwu at safety. I'm sorry to say that's an early candidate for "worst position group" in the league.
For another year, the greatest non-quarterback competitive advantage in the NFL is that of Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. He is unquestionably one of the 32 (if not 20) best coaches in football and a clear and obvious head coaching candidate, if not for the fact that he is suing the league.
Here's something I struggle to put into words. (Yes, always good to write that sentence just before publishing something.) Jayden Daniels had a historically productive rookie quarterback season. The Commanders' fan base and team brass should feel confident and inspired about the future of the position. However, I'm still as -- if not more -- impressed by how well Drake Maye played on that terrible Patriots offense last season.
Statistically, he didn't hold a candle. But degree of difficulty? Maye was playing a completely different sport. I'll put it this way and hope metropolitan D.C. doesn't come for my head: Patriots fans should feel as confident and inspired about their future at quarterback as Commanders fans do right now.
What if Michael Penix Jr. struggles a lot? The Atlanta quarterback started only three games, and while he had moments of good, he had plenty of bad, too. What if Penix starts slow and Kirk Cousins is still on the roster? What if the Falcons, who have not made the playoffs in eight seasons (wild!), shocked the world with a super aggressive investment in QB2 and then forced him into action way earlier than expected -- only for that QB2 not to be ready?
All of the eggs are suddenly in that Penix basket.
Sorry, Falcons fans, but there aren't two sides to that coin. I think J.J. McCarthy could be the 24th-best quarterback in the league next season and the Vikings would still win 12 games. That's the difference between a well-built roster and a haphazardly built one.
The Texans have made consecutive AFC divisional rounds, but we don't talk about them like we talk about the Ravens or Bills. I think that's wrong. The Texans' defense can get burned in its aggressive style (see: all games against Lamar Jackson), but over the past two seasons, it has shown up in key postseason moments and against top opponents more often than not. The Texans' offense disappointed last season, but the potential for an immediate bounce-back is there under a new coaching staff.
ESPN BET has the Texans with the sixth-best odds to win the AFC. They're behind the Bengals and Chargers, which just doesn't reflect the reality of those three teams over the past few seasons. I'm buying Houston.
I think the single best move in the offseason, bar none, without question, all things considered, was the Bills somehow signing Khalil Shakir to a four-year deal worth only $13.25 million per year. Darnell Mooney money? I still can't believe it. Shakir is going to have his first 1,000-yard season in 2025.
I wish the Broncos made a splashier move in the skill position group. When they lined up against Buffalo in the wild-card round, their offense simply did not present enough danger to a well-coached, deep Bills defense. Since then, they've added Evan Engram, RJ Harvey and Pat Bryant -- a veteran tight end and two rookies. I'm imagining this offense once again lining up against Buffalo and feeling much the same way.
Wonder what the trade deadline ends up looking like for this team.
The Commanders' best pass rusher right now is Frankie Luvu, which is a little weird because he's an off-ball linebacker. The actual defensive ends are Dorance Armstrong, Jacob Martin, Clelin Ferrell and Deatrich Wise Jr. I ... don't love that for a presumed Super Bowl hopeful.
I don't think I have the fortitude to endure an entire offseason of Browns QB battle updates. Shedeur Sanders hype as he's throwing to -- and against -- fourth-stringers. Kenny Pickett with the first team in 2025. I can't do it. I'm not strong enough.
If we don't get a cool trick play touchdown on the new kickoff, I'm going to file a complaint with the league office. We've all had a full season and two offseasons to look at it. Somebody dial up a reverse, please.
Three most improved teams
Wow, they got better!
Las Vegas Raiders (4-13 in 2024)
No team made bigger strides at the two most important positions than the Raiders. Geno Smith is multiple tiers better than Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell, which should provide weekly above-average quarterback play. Pete Carroll is multiple tiers better at head coach than Antonio Pierce, who struggled with in-game and locker room management. Those changes alone should massively raise the Raiders' floor, and the presence of potential offensive stars such as Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty elevate the ceiling.
I expect the Raiders to be around .500 this season, so long as they endure the defensive departures.
Chicago Bears (5-12 in 2024)
It has been five months since the 2024 regular season ended, and we're still uncovering more layers of the coaching ineptitude in Chicago. Caleb Williams' rookie season was rife with concerning film, but it's quite easy to attribute his spiraling to the poor coaching. With Ben Johnson on hand and Dennis Allen running the defense, the Bears should be far more functional in 2025. Their substantial offseason additions on offense could define a very high ceiling, if they hit.
Domonique Foxworth explains that Caleb Williams has to play well now that his attempts to avoid the Bears have been revealed.
New England Patriots (4-13 in 2024)
I'm thrilled with Drake Maye's rookie performance and long-term potential, and I'm equally stoked about the Patriots' offseason. They're banking on a young offense, which may reap more rewards in 2026 than in 2025. But defensively, they're poised for a big leap following plenty of free agent acquisitions.
I think Maye can lug the offense into a decent tier on his own, while a top-flight secondary with cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Christian Gonzalez can win a few games on coverage alone.
Three least improved teams
Yeah, they got worse.
Philadelphia Eagles (14-3 in 2024)
It's not particularly revolutionary to claim that the Super Bowl champion is going to have a hangover, but boy howdy did the Eagles lose a lot of talent. In fact, 4,114 defensive snaps from 2024 are out the door with defensive linemen Milton Williams, Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham and defensive backs C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Darius Slay Jr. and Isaiah Rodgers. Of course, they have young players waiting in the wings, but I'd expect a rocky start as they shake off the cobwebs. The Eagles start with the Cowboys, Chiefs, Rams, Bucs and Broncos -- five potential playoff teams. Things could get squirrelly.
Seattle Seahawks (10-7 in 2024)
The Seahawks' offseason got a ton of coverage, so we don't need to rehash it all. But when Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf leave the building for Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, you're downgraded in my eyes. The offensive line still has big question marks, even if rookie Grey Zabel plays well. Coach Mike Macdonald worked wonders with this defense last season and must do so again this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7 in 2024)
The Steelers swapped George Pickens and Van Jefferson for DK Metcalf and Robert Woods, which doesn't feel that much better, if at all. They swapped Najee Harris for Kaleb Johnson, which again doesn't feel great. The departure of Dan Moore Jr. at left tackle looms large on offense, as well. Oh, and there's the little matter of the quarterback position.
Even if Aaron Rodgers signs with the Steelers, I'm not convinced the offense is better than last season -- and for the (decently big!) chance Rodgers does not join the Steelers, this team is clearly worse than in 2024. Still, as always with a Mike Tomlin-coached team, that decrease in team strength may not lead to an actual decrease in win total.
10 bold predictions that you shouldn't aggregate -- unless they end up being correct
Please do not try to screenshot these. It will cause your phone/computer/tablet to explode.
Rams rookie tight end Terrance Ferguson will supplant Tyler Higbee as the starter by Week 5 and end the season as the second-best target in L.A. behind Puka Nacua (and ahead of Davante Adams). Call it 63 catches, 821 yards and six scores.
The Packers will miss the playoffs. I think two of the biggest nonnegotiables for playoff teams are having a pass rush and a dominant receiver. The Packers definitely don't have the first and still might not have the second, even after drafting Matthew Golden in Round 1. They were plus-12 in turnover differential last season, which ranked third in the NFL, but that tends not to be a sticky number. (I am also looking at the plus-24 Bills with supreme suspicion.)
Mykel Williams will win Defensive Rookie of the Year. If the 49ers unleash him as a pass rusher in a way that Georgia never did -- and if his left ankle is healthy -- he has a great pass-rush profile for early success. He'll also rarely see double teams opposite Nick Bosa. A 10-plus-sack season is well within the cards. (And if he doesn't win this award, Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger will.)
Omarion Hampton will win Offensive Rookie of the Year. I think he will quickly out-touch Najee Harris, and I think the Chargers want to go back to a more run-heavy approach after turning pass-heavy out of necessity late last season. He'll outproduce fellow first-rounder Ashton Jeanty, too. I see a 1,200-rushing-yard season incoming.
Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz talks with Pat McAfee about the decision to draft Omarion Hampton in the first round.
The first, collective swell of a fan base wanting to tank for the Arch Manning pick will come Oct. 5, when the Browns start 0-5. (Their early-season schedule is brutal.) Manning will have just beaten the Florida Gators on Oct. 4 in a dazzling four-touchdown performance. The rallying cry will be "The March to Arch," or possibly "Planning for Manning."
Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. will set an NFL record with 12 games of at least 100 receiving yards. He had four last season, and three came in the final four weeks.
By this time next year, we will all call Brock Bowers the best tight end in football, and nobody will flinch even a little bit.
The Panthers will go 9-8. I'm not even sure I actually believe this, as I have my Bryce Young doubts. But what I like so much about the Panthers is what's around Young. Dave Canales has the goods and appears to be a future Coach of the Year. Defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero has the goods and appears to be a future head coach. Many recent additions -- Robert Hunt, Xavier Legette, Tetairoa McMillan, Tre'von Moehrig, Nic Scourton, Princely Umanmielen, etc. -- are players I have liked above consensus, too.
I'm confident the arrow is pointed up in Carolina. If there's anything real in Young's resurgence, the Panthers should be fighting for a wild-card spot.
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has 82 career starts without a playoff win, which feels like a lot but is only tied for 29th out of all quarterbacks since 1950. Chargers QB Justin Herbert is just behind him with 79.
One of the two will get their first postseason win this season. Maybe both. (OK, probably just one.)
The Geno Smith career resurrection came in 2022. The Baker Mayfield career resurrection came in 2023. The Sam Darnold career resurrection came in 2024. Now the Justin Fields career resurrection will come in 2025. Watch him hit 3,000 passing yards, 900 rushing yards and 30 total touchdowns.
16 players returning from injured reserve
It's easy to forget how many players missed a bunch of games last season. These are the key returners expected to play big roles in 2025.
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Rice was playing well last season, but you might not remember just how well he was playing before a right knee injury put him on IR. In three games, Rice had 24 catches for 288 yards and two scores. That's a 17-game pace of 136 catches for 1,632 yards and 11 touchdowns. Rice would have been the season leader in receptions and second only to Ja'Marr Chase in receiving yards had he stayed healthy and on pace.
Rice won't take the same volume, given the way Xavier Worthy emerged as an underneath target, but he has the size and ball-winning ability the Chiefs sorely lacked down the stretch.
Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Detroit Lions
Perhaps the highest-profile injury of 2024 was Hutchinson's season-ending broken leg in Week 6, as he joined what would become an avalanche of Detroit defensive injuries. Hutchinson was a Defensive Player of the Year front-runner when he went down, with league-leading figures in sacks (6.5), QB hits (14) and pressures (25). Detroit invested heavily in the defensive tackle position this offseason, but edge rusher remains a thin group besides Hutchinson. His return to full health is critical to Detroit's Super Bowl aspirations.
Derrick Barnes, LB, Detroit Lions
Aidan Hutchinson is the bigger name, but Barnes has been important to the Lions' defense for years and was rewarded with a three-year extension even as he returns from a knee injury. Barnes is an old-school linebacker who can play on- and off-ball, and with ex-linebackers coach Kelvin Sheppard now the defensive coordinator, I'd expect to see Barnes featured. He's a big part of the run defense and helps free up Hutchinson to rush off the weak side.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
The four games in which McCaffrey played last season were concerning. NFL Next Gen Stats had his maximum speeds in those four games at 16.4, 16.7, 16.1 and 17.4 mph. For context, that 17.4 mph mark would have been his fifth worst in a game during the 2023 season, when he was the MVP of the 49ers' Super Bowl-bound offense. He clearly looked less springy in 2024 than he did in 2023; in fact, he looked like a player who had a cool 417 touches in the previous season.
It's hard for running backs' bodies to endure the level of use McCaffrey endured in 2023, but not impossible. We'll know quickly if his body has bounced back for 2025 after missing time for Achilles and knee injuries in 2024.
Lloyd Cushenberry III, C, Tennessee Titans
Cushenberry signed one of the biggest contracts among centers last offseason when he joined the Titans in free agency. He was delivering, too, before a torn Achilles ended his season in Week 9. If he can return to full strength for Week 1, that is an enormous deal as the Titans onboard rookie Cam Ward. Nothing steadies a young passer quite like a veteran presence at center.
Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, WRs, New Orleans Saints
The Saints' offense started so hot and fell so hard in large part because of the injuries to Olave and Shaheed. Shaheed is expected to be all the way back after knee surgery in October. Olave suffered the fourth concussion of his NFL career and missed the Saints' final eight games of the season. If New Orleans has any hope of a functional 2025 offense, it needs Olave to stay safe and healthy and Shaheed to return to full speed.
Alex Singleton, LB, Denver Broncos
Singleton tore his left ACL in Week 3, which could have been a debilitating injury for the Broncos' defense, but they rallied well with big performances from Cody Barton and Justin Strnad. The Broncos let Barton walk in free agency and signed Dre Greenlaw to replace him, but Singleton is expected to start over Strnad if he's back to form in training camp. The Broncos' defense, which was one of the best in football last season, can somehow still take another step forward with offseason acquisitions and the return of Singleton.
SirVocea Dennis, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When Dennis was healthy last season, he was fighting K.J. Britt for the starting linebacker spot opposite Lavonte David -- and he was winning that competition. Dennis particularly impressed in coverage over the middle of the field, and after his Week 4 shoulder injury, the Buccaneers started getting hammered in the intermediate middle by opposing quarterbacks.
Tampa Bay passed entirely on the linebacker position in the 2025 draft and let Britt go in free agency. With only Anthony Walker Jr. as depth, the Buccaneers have clearly placed their faith in Dennis to play the majority of the snaps opposite David. Tampa Bay's pass defense was the limiting factor in its postseason push last season, and Dennis should provide a boost there.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Aiyuk broke out in 2023 with 1,342 receiving yards as the primary target for Brock Purdy on a Super Bowl run. Then 2024 was supposed to be the encore, as the 49ers took another crack at a championship, but Aiyuk had only 374 yards on 25 catches through the first seven games. There were some near-misses and rust to start the season, but Aiyuk still looked like a great separator on film ... before a torn ACL and MCL in Week 7. With Deebo Samuel Sr. gone to the Commanders, Aiyuk desperately needs to return to form as a dominant WR1 after last year's face-plant of a season.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Things weren't particularly rosy for the 3-4 Cowboys before Prescott went down with a hamstring avulsion (don't ask me, I don't know) in Week 9, and a coaching change was made accordingly. Prescott was squarely in the MVP race for much of the 2023 season, so the ceiling for high-caliber play is still there -- and the acquisition of George Pickens gives the Cowboys a legitimate duo at wide receiver. Should Prescott return to his 2023 form, at least the Cowboys' passing attack will be something fearsome. Who exactly ends up running the football, I still don't fully understand.
Stephen A. Smith explains why the George Pickens trade doesn't move the Cowboys up in the NFC East.
Troy Fautanu, OT, Pittsburgh Steelers
Fautanu played just one game as a rookie before a dislocated kneecap knocked him out for the rest of his debut campaign. It's always tough for rookies who miss their first year to keep up with the developmental curve, but the Steelers need him to stay on track. He is the only answer at right tackle, as Broderick Jones has to move over to left tackle following Dan Moore Jr.'s departure in free agency. For what it's worth, I just watched that one start back on tape (Week 2 against the Broncos). Not bad!
Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami Dolphins
Miami's defensive front -- and in particular, its pass rush -- was a force to be reckoned with down the stretch last season. First-round pick Chop Robinson immediately hit, with a higher pressure rate (17.2%) than eventual Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse. His quick first step will look great opposite technician and sack artist Phillips, who missed all but three games of the season with a torn ACL. It remains to be seen how quickly Phillips can return to form, but with Robinson, Phillips and Bradley Chubb all on the field on late downs, the Dolphins could have one of the most disruptive fronts in football.
Andrew Thomas, OT, New York Giants
Thomas, whom I consider one of the better left tackles in the game and still an ascending player, had Lisfranc surgery and missed every game after Week 6. There wasn't much going on with the Giants' season anyway, but if they have any hope of developing rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, ensuring a sealed blind side is a nonnegotiable. Lisfranc injuries can be nasty, lingering things, so Thomas' health and form are something to keep an eye on.
Jermaine Johnson, Edge, New York Jets
A 2022 first-rounder, Johnson took a big step forward in 2023 with 7.5 sacks, 36 pressures and 16 QB hits. Unfortunately, a torn Achilles in Week 2 stopped us from seeing what another leap would have looked like in 2024, and now a new defensive coaching staff has taken the reins in New York. Johnson has the size that new coach Aaron Glenn covets in his edge defenders and should be in line for a starting gig. But can he return to 2023 form off a major injury and in a new system?
Dax Hill, DB, Cincinnati Bengals
Very interesting one here. The Bengals picked up Hill's fifth-year option off his ACL injury -- $12.7 million, all guaranteed -- without clarity on how Hill will be used in new defensive coordinator Al Golden's defense. Hill has started the majority of his career at safety but wasn't great there. It appeared he could have transitioned well to corner in 2024, but he played only five games and was still working through the warts. There's smoke now that he might be the new nickelback since Mike Hilton remains unsigned.
Where exactly Hill plays and what the Bengals get out of him there are big question marks for a defense in need of splashy players.
One overtime-related take that I had to bring up but didn't really fit in the other categories
It's not even really a take. Just a musing.
New overtime rules! All regular-season overtime games will now follow the postseason rules of the past few seasons, meaning each offense is guaranteed a possession. An offensive touchdown on the opening drive no longer ends the overtime period. If the game remains tied after each team has a drive, then sudden death begins -- but the overtime period is only 10 minutes long.
There's some serious overtime game theory for the winner of the coin toss now. The team with the latter possession will have a lot of information that will dictate fourth-down decisions. Do they need a touchdown to win? Or even to extend the game? A smart second-possession team will go for 2-point tries and fourth-down attempts to try and prevent a third possession from ever happening. So the second possession feels more valuable.
But remember, the first-possession team is the third-possession team, and the third possession is when sudden death begins. So having the ball first (and subsequently third) is also nice. See the confusion?
The new regular-season overtime is complex and not completely solved, which means that by Week 4, we will have enormous internet arguments in stark black and white about something that is largely gray.
Four key financial items
It's all about the money, money, money. Remember that song?
Since Brock Purdy signed his five-year, $265 million extension, I've found myself reflecting on everything the 49ers lost in anticipation of this massive contract. Look at the free agent exodus of the past few seasons: Mike McGlinchey, Chase Young, Arik Armstead, Aaron Banks, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Charvarius Ward, Jaylon Moore, Javon Hargrave and Deebo Samuel Sr. That's a lot of talent out of the building, but not without good reason. Age, diminished play and injury were all factors. Still, it's the inescapable bloodletting of a team at the end of a Super Bowl window. Is it all really worth it?
Then I remember that this was always the plan. When the 49ers drafted Trey Lance with the third overall pick in 2021, they expected a quarterback to start getting expensive around the 2025, maybe 2026 season. Purdy is stylistically different from what the 49ers hoped to get with Lance. He's more of an extension of Kyle Shanahan's existing philosophy, whereas Lance was meant to be a revolution. But the cap sheets look similar; Purdy's financial arc is about what the 49ers expected with Lance.
I am not ringing any alarm bells, but I find it interesting that T.J. Watt is in the final year of his deal with pretty much no smoke about an upcoming extension. I find this doubly interesting when you consider that he is 31 and coming off his worst season as a pro. And I find it triply interesting that Watt has never won a playoff game with the Steelers, who may be approaching a massive organizational overhaul if coach Mike Tomlin cannot figure out the quarterback position. Just a thought!
The Lions are currently third in the league in 2025 cap space and 28th in 2026 cap space, per Roster Management System. This is a result of the timing on the extensions for Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell and Alim McNeill. Those four players hit the cap for $66.7 million this year but $159.7 million next year.
Rolling over that 2025 cap space into 2026 will provide some relief, but not enough. An inevitable reset of some size is coming to the Lions next offseason. A few big contracts for older starters will be on the chopping block -- LT Taylor Decker, C Frank Ragnow and RG Graham Glasgow are all candidates for restructuring or release. This is a huge season for coach Dan Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes, who built a perennial contender masterfully but don't yet have a Super Bowl appearance to show for it. After this year, the margins get way, way tighter.
Dan Graziano points out the Lions play seven outdoor games this season - a big jump from just three last year - which could pose a challenge.
Fifteen players have a cap hit of at least $30 million this season. Unsurprisingly, 12 of the 15 are quarterbacks -- including the likes of Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith and Deshaun Watson but excluding Patrick Mahomes. The remaining three are Maxx Crosby, T.J. Watt and -- I'll give you 1,000 guesses -- Taylor Moton. Consider that two seasons ago, there were three players with $30 million-plus cap hits. That's a 5x increase in just two seasons!
You want to get really wild with it? The biggest cap hit of the 2023 season for an active player belonged to Mahomes at $37.1 million. That leapt to $49.1 million in 2024 (Kyler Murray) and $50.5 million in 2025 (Dak Prescott). The next jump is coming in 2026, when Watson hits the cap for $80.7 million. And even if Watson is cut, as expected, Mahomes is right there at $78.2 million.
We have never had a player hit the cap for $55 million in a single season. Next year, we are projected to have eight. Cap's going up!
Six key numbers, stat edition
It's like Next Ben Stats, just in the middle of the offseason.
943 yards
Puka Nacua holds the record for most receiving yards in a rookie season with 1,486. Yet Minnesota's Justin Jefferson holds the record for most receiving yards through two seasons of a player's career (3,016), three seasons (4,825), four seasons (5,899) and five seasons (7,432). An absurd testament to early-career success and availability.
For context, Jefferson is 261 yards above second place in Year 2, 662 above in Year 3, 387 above in Year 4 (despite missing seven games) and 648 above in Year 5. To catch him in the Year 5 numbers, Ja'Marr Chase needs a cool 2,008-yard season.
Jefferson is already seventh on the list for receiving yards through six seasons, and he has played only five seasons. He'll take the top spot with a mere 943 yards, which would take just 10 games on his career average of 96.5 receiving yards per game (the best number in NFL history, so take your "17-game season" complaints and shove 'em).
1
That's how many times a 30-plus-year-old running back has rushed for at least 1,900 yards in an NFL season. It was ... well, it was last year, when Derrick Henry rushed for 1,921 yards on only 325 carries at 30 years old (5.9 yards per attempt is by far the best single-season mark of his career). Henry looked like the Henry of old after his final two seasons in Tennessee tailed off statistically, and now he's on a new extension with a year under his belt in Baltimore's system.
The record for the most rushing yards in an age-31 season belongs to Curtis Martin, who tallied 1,697 in 2004. As long as Henry keeps strapping them on, we can expect him to challenge the age milestones.
87%
That was the Commanders' fourth-down conversion rate last season. Read that again, because it's easy to wash over and fail to comprehend: 87% conversion rate. They went 20 for 23 on fourth down.
It's almost certainly the best fourth-down season in history. Two teams since 2000 have better conversion rates (2016 Cowboys and 2018 Chargers), but with far fewer attempts (nine and 10, respectively). By total EPA added (44.3), this was the most impactful fourth-down season this century. In fact, 23.7% of the Commanders' total points came on drives that included a successful fourth-down conversion, which is the fifth-highest number of the century.
These are significant numbers for the 2025 season because they scream regression. While it's reasonable to expect the Commanders to continue going for it on fourth down and converting at a decent rate (an excellent rushing quarterback is a big part of that), turning just five conversions into failures would have a huge impact on their win column. I can honestly say I am excited for the 2025 season because I want to see how Washington performs on fourth down. (I know, I'm a sicko!)
12
That's how many times Bucs receiver Mike Evans will have produced a 1,000-yard receiving season if he does it again this year. Remember, it took an extra effort in Week 18 to get him to his 11th straight season, the most to ever start a career. Jerry Rice also had 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons from 1986 to 1996, though he didn't have 1,000 yards in Year 1 like Evans did in 2014.
(Rice accumulated 14 total 1,000-yard seasons over his career, which is the record. Check back for my "100 things to watch in the 2028 NFL season" in a few years for an update on Evans' pace versus the all-time great.)
3
That's how many receivers could go over 1,000 career receptions this season. DeAndre Hopkins (984), Keenan Allen (974) and Davante Adams (957) are within striking range. It seems almost inevitable that Hopkins, currently the WR3 in Baltimore, will get there -- he needs to average less than one catch per game -- and Adams will certainly shag at least 44 balls if he stays healthy as the Rams' WR2. Allen is still a free agent, but he should get 27 catches if and when he signs with a team.
Only 15 players have over 1,000 career receptions, with Travis Kelce (2024) the most recent qualifier at 1,004. Before Kelce, we had not seen a player clear the mark since Steve Smith Sr. did it in 2016. It's been a minute!
3
That's how many players have strung together three straight seasons of 1,000 rushing yards -- Derrick Henry (duh), Najee Harris and Tony Pollard. Pollard did it in hilarious fashion with 1,007, 1,005 and 1,079 yards, but I was impressed by his performance as the 1A back in Tennessee. The Titans' offensive line may take another leap forward, with Dan Moore Jr. and Kevin Zeitler joining in free agency and Lloyd Cushenberry III coming off IR. Cam Ward is the exciting name, but the running game might be the story of the Titans' offense, especially early in the season.
10 key numbers, jersey edition
A very precise science ...
Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs is switching from 26 to 0, which I don't like. Wearing 0 is always cool, obviously. But don't fix what ain't broke! You were taking the league by storm in 26! I guess you don't want to fight Saquon Barkley for 26 dominance. But still, this is tempting fate.
Lions WR Jameson Williams is switching from 9 to 1. This is fine, because 9 was a fast number, but 1 is also a fast number, so Williams will remain fast. Imagine if he was wearing 22 or something.
On that note, Packers rookie WR Matthew Golden is wearing ... 22, which is appalling. He wore 2 at Texas.
Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore is going from 23, the number he has worn for eight years in the NFL, to 2, the number he wore in college. Scientists remain uncertain if this will return Lattimore to his collegiate athleticism.
Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd is switching from 33 to 0. This is one of the best improvements in jersey change history, and scientists are confident it will lead to a boost in Lloyd's play.
49ers WR Ricky Pearsall has changed his jersey number from 14 to 1, his college number. Those are good vibes. The last 49er to wear No. 1 was Deebo Samuel Sr., the career 49er who was just traded to the Commanders. Those are spooky vibes. Jury's still out on this one.
Saints QB Spencer Rattler is now wearing 2, which gives him a leg up in the Saints QB competition against rookie Tyler Shough, who is wearing 6 (an inferior quarterbacking number). Were Rattler still wearing 18, he'd have less of a lead.
Jason McCourty analyzes the strengths of Saints quarterback Tyler Shough and if he'll be ready to play right away with Derek Carr nursing a shoulder injury.
Falcons first-round rookie pass rusher Jalon Walker is wearing 11, and other Falcons first-round rookie pass rusher James Pearce Jr. is wearing 27. This will perplex and disorient your parents on game day. We have lost the old ways.
Seahawks LB Uchenna Nwosu gave up his number 10 to wide receiver Cooper Kupp in exchange for a donation to his foundation. Nwosu is now wearing 7, which is a high-value number. A lot of positions might want it in future jersey negotiations. I like where Nwosu's head's at here.
Giants rookie edge rusher Abdul Carter, after trying to pry two retired numbers from Giants legends in 11 (Phil Simms) and 56 (Lawrence Taylor), landed on 51. That's a sick edge rusher number and should have been the plan in the first place. Stop unretiring numbers!
Three more things (so I can get to 100)
Finish the mission.
We started last season with plenty of fearmongering about the onset of two-high coverages and the decline of the explosive pass. Maybe we'll do it again this September; maybe we'll do something else. The issue is simply the abridged NFL offseason, which includes diminished practice time and declining preseason participation. September football is sloppy football, and that won't stop anytime soon. Keep your takes holstered until October.
Everyone is too afraid, so I'll be the guy to say it: The Chiefs were 11-0 in one-score games last season, and they're not going to pull that off again. (Right?) The defensive depth chart is pretty rough as well. They're going to be worse in 2025. (Right?!)
I don't know, I'm out. The tank is dry. Saquon Barkley is good. There it is -- my final take. Thanks for playing.