ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- Since selecting cornerback Pat Surtain II with the No. 9 pick of the 2021 NFL draft -- a pick general manager George Paton called a "no-brainer" at the time -- the Denver Broncos haven't really had to think about what they would do without him. Surtain has been one of the league's best and most durable players since entering the league. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year is a three-time Pro Bowl selection and a two-time first-team All-Pro.
But the Broncos will be without Surtain on Sunday against the Houston Texans (1 p.m. ET, NRG Stadium, CBS) and likely for several weeks after that, leaving them in largely uncharted territory. Surtain suffered a left pectoral injury just before the end of the first half of last Sunday's win over the Dallas Cowboys and is expected to miss multiple games. He had previously missed only two games in his career, one as a rookie in 2021 and then in Week 7 last season.
"That's a big deal," Broncos coach Sean Payton said this week.
Indeed, it is. Surtain is the backbone of a Denver defense that is on a record pace for sacks in a season (36) while ranking third in defensive efficiency (61.82) and fifth in yards allowed per game (281.4). He has 27 tackles and six passes defensed despite rarely being targeted by opposing quarterbacks.
Here's a look at several aspects of how Surtain's absence could impact the Broncos' defense.
How can the Broncos replicate his production?
Surtain has never played fewer than 902 snaps in a full season, and he has played more than 1,100 in two seasons. He had 457 defensive snaps this season prior to the injury, putting him pace for another 1,100-plus-snap year. And on most of those snaps the Broncos begin their coverage plan with him and work outward.
"Everything we do, how we decide when and how to move between our coverages, is based on Pat," Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said. "And he is always a priority for offenses ... that's a lot of focus from both sides."
His performance on those snaps is superb. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Surtain has allowed only two completions on throws of 10-plus air yards from the line of scrimmage this season. And considering how frequently he is matched up with an opposing offense's best receiver, Surtain provides the Broncos with comfort. He allowed a combined 35 receiving yards in man-to-man matchups this season against Calvin Ridley (0 yards), Ja'Marr Chase (8 yards), Garrett Wilson (4 yards) and George Pickens (23 yards).
Surtain has also allowed the lowest completion percentage on tight-window throws among cornerbacks with 225 coverage snaps (50%). He has allowed the second-fewest passing yards among cornerbacks with at least 34 targets (200), and he's one of four cornerbacks who have been targeted at least 34 times this season without allowing a touchdown.
Who plays at the CB spots now?
Payton has consistently said "the hardest thing defensively is to have enough cover people," which is something he has kept in mind when helping construct the Broncos' roster. It's why Denver made cornerback Jahdae Barron its first-round pick in this past April's draft and why it was intent on retaining cornerbacks Kris Abrams-Draine and Ja'Quan McMillian in the final roster cut to 53 players.
Riley Moss, who has started the past two seasons opposite Surtain, essentially becomes the Broncos' No. 1 corner now. Moss has already lived the life of a secondary's most-targeted player because of opponents' aversion to testing Surtain, so he won't shy away from added attention.
"I think [Moss] has the hardest job on our defense weekly," Joseph said. "Obviously, Pat is a great player -- he is the No. 1 corner in football. So, most of the concepts and most of the scheme for offense, it's going towards Riley. But [Moss] is competitive. He's not going to back off. It doesn't matter how the game's going. If he gets a penalty or two, he's going to compete and do his job and that makes Riley special."
Moss has been flagged eight times this season, including declined penalties, tied for third most in the league. That will bear watching for the NFL's most penalized team (83, including declined penalties) and defense (36).
Before Surtain's injury, the Broncos preferred to leave Barron and McMillian in their roles in nickel and dime packages (five and six defensive backs). Abrams-Draine went in for Surtain in the second half against Dallas, registering eight tackles.
Can Broncos be as aggressive in the pass rush?
Asked earlier this week if Surtain's absence would affect the Broncos' aggressiveness, Payton indicated that it was a significant factor. He added, "Especially when a large part of your plan is dealing with rotation and matchups. ... Then all of a sudden that one element goes away, it can be a little bit disruptive."
The Broncos will have had a week to work through their options before playing the Texans, whose offensive line is 28th in the NFL with a pass block win rate of 55.1% -- 20% worse than the league-leading Broncos. Despite that, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud hasn't been all that easy to sack. He has been taken down 15 times, which is tied for 14th with the Ravens' Lamar Jackson (who has played only four games to Stroud's seven) entering Week 9.
The Broncos lead the NFL with 36 sacks, 10 more than the next-best team, the Los Angeles Rams. They are on pace to break the NFL record of 72, set by the Chicago Bears in 1984. Denver also ranks fourth as a team in pass rush win rate (44.9%).
But the Broncos have done all that with the highest rate of man-to-man defense in the league behind that pressure -- 63.5% of their coverage snaps -- which was aided by having a lockdown corner in Surtain.
So will we see man or zone coverage now?
This might be where Surtain's absence has the biggest impact on the Broncos' decision-making. They are the only team in the league that has played more than 60% of its coverage snaps in man-to-man this season.
The Broncos also dot the league leaders when it comes to individuals who have played the most snaps in man coverage. Five of the top six players in that category are Broncos, consisting of four defensive backs (Moss, Surtain and safeties Brandon Jones and Talanoa Hufanga) and linebacker Alex Singleton. Moss leads the NFL in man-to-man coverage snaps with 188.
The Broncos haven't been as effective playing zone this season, giving up a slightly higher QBR to opposing passers there (38.7) than in man (32.7). But without Surtain, the ultimate man-to-man defender, they might be forced to play more zone defense.
Linebacker Dre Greenlaw's return -- he missed the first six games with a thigh injury and was sidelined against the Cowboys due to suspension -- could help. But there are offensive coaches in the league who have faced the Broncos this season who say Denver's defenders aren't as effective in off-ball situations.
"[Even] with Surtain in there, we just felt we had more options when they were in zone," an opposing coach said.