Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value.
We have our full crew back this week, as Ben Solak makes his return to the lineup.
Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.
These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.
Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.
With that, let's dive into Week 9. As always, odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook. 
Note: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.
Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props
Game bets
Indianapolis Colts to cover -3.5 (Even) at Steelers
Bowen: The Colts are averaging a league-best 32.9 points. Balance in the call sheet. A game changer at running back in Jonathan Taylor. Plus, Daniel Jones can play as a point guard, with versatile pass catchers at all three levels of the field. Expect more points here against a Steelers defense that lacks team speed. Let's take the Colts to cover on the road.
Detroit Lions to cover -8.5 (-105) vs. Vikings
Solak: This is an excellent spot for the Lions coming off the bye, as Dan Campbell has covered 70% of his home games as the head coach of the Lions and 70% of his games with additional rest. Safety Brian Branch returns from suspension, as does fellow safety Kerby Joseph from injury, and cornerback Terrion Arnold, who initially looked as if he might lose his whole season to a shoulder injury, was back at practice this week. The Lions are getting healthier.
Who knows how many games we'll get to fade J.J. McCarthy as a starter, but a road game against a vitriolic divisional opponent feels like an easy spot. Vikings left tackle Christian Darrisaw was a full participant in practice, but he has been in and out of games as he struggles to return to full health. Against a strong Lions defensive front that forces opposing offenses to pass to beat them, I don't see much success for the Vikings' offense.
One final note: Jared Goff's Lions in four games against the Vikings and Brian Flores' defense: 31, 31, 30, and 30 points.
Seattle Seahawks alt line -6.5 (+170) at Washington
Solak: I expect a good amount of public interest on the Commanders' side as we approach "Sunday Night Football." Jayden Daniels is back, the Commanders' season is barely hanging on -- it's a clear desperation spot. But Mike Macdonald's Seahawks have been a wagon on the road, going 10-1 outright and 7-4 ATS, and they have a unique invulnerability to what the Commanders do on offense. Washington rips through opponents with a no-huddle offense, hurrying up on 65% of its snaps this season. But since Week 3, the Seahawks have left the same nickel defense on the field for 92% of their snaps -- easily the highest number in football. No-huddle offenses try to trap opposing defenses in bad personnel groupings and exploit matchups, but Seattle doesn't need to sub to have an elite defense anyway. This should be a banner day for the Seahawks offense as well, as Klint Kubiak's preferred style of passing (under-center play-action) has long been Dan Quinn's kryptonite. I like Seattle against the spread up to big numbers this week.
Chicago Bears-Cincinnati Bengals total points OVER 51.5 (Even)
Bowen: Let's play for a high-scoring game in Cincinnati. This Bengals defense, one that lacks impact players, is giving up a league-worst 31.6 PPG. And Chicago is really banged up in the secondary. Caleb Williams will have opportunities to create explosives in the pass game. Joe Flacco, too. And if he can't go because of a shoulder injury, I'll take the aggressive throwing mentality of Jake Browning. Plus, both defenses are giving up an average of over five yards per carry.
Denver Broncos-Houston Texans to go UNDER 39.5 total points (-110)
Solak: The Texans looked like a rejuvenated offense last week against the San Francisco 49ers, but they're going from playing a defense that is last in pressure rate to the defense comfortably in first. The only three games in which the Texans' offense has produced more than two points per drive have been against defenses that are bottom 10 in pressure rate: San Francisco, Baltimore and Tennessee. The Broncos will be without Pat Surtain II, but they still have a pass rush to protect their corner depth. I expect Houston to run the football heavily to try to slow that rush and for the Broncos to do the same on the other side of the ball. The Texans play with exclusively four-down fronts, which are exploitable for smart running game designers like Sean Payton. But Denver's offense flounders on the road so far with Bo Nix (1.86 points per drive relative to 2.35 points per drive at home when he became the starter). Two outmatched offenses with a heavy dose of carries spells an under. I don't think this line will move up if/when news breaks that Nico Collins (concussion) is active, but it might be worth waiting to see if you can get it at 40.
Los Angeles Rams first-half spread -7.5 (-105) vs. Saints
Bowen: Let's bet on the Rams to jump quick in this one with Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough making his first pro start on the road. Remember, this Rams defense ranks second in the league with 26 sacks, and they will use loaded fronts to create schemed pass-rush matchups. Add in some late safety rotation here (to cloud the looks for Shough), and I think L.A. can dictate the flow of this game from a defensive perspective, which also means positive field position for Matthew Stafford.
Two-team, 6-point teaser (-156): Buffalo Bills +8.5 vs. Chiefs and Detroit Lions -3.5 vs. Vikings
Bowen: Let's start in Buffalo, where we'll tease the Bills up six points to +8.5 at home against the Chiefs. With that spread, I'm in on Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady using a run-based approach. It will be a volume day for James Cook III, with scripted calls for Josh Allen to take his shots.
In Detroit, I feel good taking the Lions down to -3.5 points. J.J. McCarthy is making his first start since Week 2, and his tape showed inconsistencies before the ankle injury. The Lions' defense can speed up McCarthy's internal clock Sunday, and the offense can control the front. It's Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery in the run game, plus pocket throws for Jared Goff to schemed voids in pass coverage.
Seth Walder's defensive props
Tristan H. Cockcroft details why the Rams' defense is the top pickup this week and a must-start.
Prop bets will be added as odds become available.
Offensive player props
Daniel Dopp has Travis Kelce ranked inside his top-10 tight ends in Week 9 against the Bills.
Bijan Robinson to go OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-110)
Solak: There's a great opportunity to buy low on Robinson's receiving production. Before the Dolphins game, Robinson had at least five targets and at least 39 yards in four straight games; his last three games produced 106, 68 and 52 yards through the air. But in that Dolphins game, Atlanta didn't have Michael Penix Jr., who has been gangbusters for Robinson's receiving profile.
With Penix back in the saddle, we should like Robinson's receiving totals in general. Against a Patriots run defense that is stifling, I'm doubly interested in looking at Robinson's receiving totals, as the Falcons will funnel him designed passes if they're struggling on the ground. The weakness of the Patriots coverage group is their linebackers, whom Robinson will have no issues shaking in space.
James Cook III to go OVER 11.5 receiving yards (-120)
Solak: Cook has gone three games without a reception, which gives us a great buy-low spot. In four games against the Kansas City Chiefs as a starter, Cook has had at least three targets across the board and cleared 20 receiving yards in three of four. When alternate lines become available, I will look for 20-plus at +190 or better and 30-plus at +570 or better. The Bills' passing game has been less than its typically stellar self in recent weeks, and I expect an internal review will lead Joe Brady to get the ball into Cook's hands more intentionally. Even if he doesn't get the same volume he had in previous outings against the Chiefs, he has the explosiveness to turn one checkdown into a winning bet here.
Rome Odunze to score anytime TD (+110)
Bowen: After opening the season with at least one touchdown grab in four straight games, Odunze has gone scoreless over his past three. But Odunze is the clear No. 1 for Caleb Williams. So, let's take the positive matchup here against a Bengals defense that has given up 19 touchdown passes this season, the second most in the league.
Nico Collins to go OVER 60.5 receiving yards (-115)
Bowen: Collins (concussion) is trending toward a Week 9 return. I normally wouldn't take this bet against the Broncos' defense, but with Pat Surtain II -- the league's top cover corner -- out because of a pectoral injury, I like Collins to hit the over. Look for a lot of in-breaking targets and boundary isolation throws to Collins.
Travis Kelce to go OVER 46.5 receiving yards (Even)
Bowen: The Bills have been really good against opposing tight ends, giving up only 22 receiving yards per game. But I'm going with Andy Reid's ability to scheme Buffalo's zone-heavy defense (65.9% of opponent dropbacks), which can create leveled throws for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Plus, let's not forget about Kelce's ability to make himself available when Mahomes extends plays. Kelce has topped 48 receiving yards in five straight games, and he does it again in the best game on the Week 9 schedule.
Khalil Shakir to go OVER 51.5 receiving yards (-110)
Bowen: I'm betting on Shakir to post numbers after the catch against the Chiefs' defense. Over his past four games, Shakir is averaging 10.4 yards after the catch, and we know his route tree creates opportunities in space. Screens, unders, crossers. Shakir has topped 52 yards receiving in two of his past four games.
Kayshon Boutte to score anytime TD (+225)
Bowen: Boutte has at least one touchdown catch in three straight games, with at least one end zone target in two, and there isn't a quarterback in the league right now who is playing better football than New England's Drake Maye. With the plus-money on this bet, I'll take a shot on Boutte against an Atlanta defense that just gave up four touchdown throws against Miami last week.
Tory Horton to record 50+ receiving yards (+500)
Walder: Has Horton caught a single pass in either of his past two games? He has not. But just imagine if he did ...
Because seriously, if he did catch a pass, there's a pretty decent chance it would be way downfield. Fifty-five percent of Horton's routes are verticals, according to data from ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats, which is the third-highest rate among wide receivers with at least 100 routes run. That's a huge reason why my alternate receiving yards model tends to like Horton at the extremes. Any given reception could be a 40- or 50-yard catch. I've struggled all season in this category -- we were so close last week with Boutte at 80-plus receiving yards -- but am still firing and hoping to connect on a long shot of my own.
Field Yates, Daniel Dopp and Mike Clay evaluate Caleb Williams' fantasy matchup vs. the Bengals in Week 9.
Caleb Williams to go OVER 231.5 passing yards (-115)
Bowen: Williams has thrown for over 250 yards in three of his past five games, and it's tough to pass on this matchup against Cincinnati. Entering Week 9, the Bengals' defense is giving up 256 passing yards per game and 7.6 yards per attempt, which both rank 30th in the league. I expect Bears coach Ben Johnson to have pass-game answers Sunday.
Bo Nix to go OVER 20.5 rushing yards (-120)
Solak: Houston is always one of the worst defenses against QB runs. No team is giving up more yards per carry (6.7) than the Texans this season, and it's not as if they've played a particularly dangerous set of quarterbacks (Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence, Cam Ward, Cooper Rush, Sam Darnold and Mac Jones). In comes Nix, who is averaging 21.4 rushing yards per game, more than every quarterback on that list. He'll be involved in the designed running game to take advantage of the Texans' aggressive edge rushers but also will scramble quite a bit, as Sean Payton intentionally rolls him out to slow down the Houston pass rush. The Broncos are underdogs in this game, one that figures to be low scoring. The only games this season in which Nix has had fewer than 20 rushing yards have been big wins against the Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals. On a neutral script, we should get home.
Nix to go UNDER 34.5 pass attempts (-125)
Walder: My model simply sees this as too high of a line. It is a bit unusual. If we look at games in which the spread was between a pick 'em and +2.5 this season, in only six of the 38 occurrences has the pass attempts over/under prop been 34.5 or higher. Two of those were Patrick Mahomes games (the Chiefs are the most pass-heavy team in the league), and another was a Dak Prescott game (Dallas' porous defense leads to plenty of pass attempts for Prescott). The Broncos lean pass heavy, but I don't think they're on that level.
Plus, just looking at the matchup, I doubt the Broncos want Nix to pass this much. As good as their pass protection is -- they rank first in pass block win rate -- going against Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter is a different level of challenge that what Dallas presented. I wouldn't be shocked to see Denver wanting to limit the number of opportunities those two have to hit Nix.
Josh Allen to go OVER 0.5 interceptions thrown (+130)
Walder: There have been 114 games this season featuring a QB on an underdog team with an interception prop line. Only 10 of those 114 featured an over line of +105 or higher. None were above +120. Until now. Allen is an incredible quarterback, but he is not at peak form at the moment. He ranks just 13th in QBR, has a 1.7% interception rate (19th best) and a plus-1% completion percentage over expectation (14th best), per NFL Next Gen Stats. Given all that, +130 is too good to pass up. I make the fair price +102.