Ranking 2011 prospects: Nos. 1-10

NFL'S TOP UNDER-25 TALENT:

PROSPECT RANKINGS: 1-10 | 11-25 | ORGANIZATIONAL RANKINGS

Want to be a great NFL organization? Find talent in places where other teams don't. It's one thing to find a great player in the first round of the draft, where talent is unquestioned and success is more a question of scheme and fit than anything else. When teams supplement success in the first round with great work on the final day of the draft and in rookie free agency, they create advantages up and down the roster that other teams simply can't compete with.

For the uninitiated, this list is not like the prospect lists you read about in the world of baseball. Because the top prospects in college football are stars on national television before they get taken in the first round of the NFL draft, there's not much utility in listing them here. Instead, we use a combination of statistics, measurables, context and expected roles to compile a list of under-the-radar players whom we expect to make an impact in the NFL, both in 2011 and beyond. To focus on these players, we limit the pool to guys who fit the following criteria:
• Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as a college free agent
• Entered the NFL between 2008 and 2010
• Fewer than five career games started
• Still on a rookie contract

Today we're bringing you the top 10 on our list; yesterday we brought you Nos. 11-25. On Thursday, we'll wrap up the series by ranking all 32 NFL teams by their under-25 talent.

10. Jordan Shipley, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Eighty-five players qualified for the leaderboard in our receiver statistics by being targeted on 50 passes or more. Of those 85 players, only one -- Austin Collie -- had a catch rate greater than the 70 percent figure put up by Shipley last season. Shipley's catch rate was actually slightly ahead of the other slot receivers he's often compared to: Wes Welker and Danny Amendola. He even posted the best DVOA of the three, along with the only positive receiving DVOA by any qualifying Bengals receiver. Shipley isn't going to be a star, but he's going to be a contributor on the next effective Bengals offense.

9. Lardarius Webb, CB, Baltimore Ravens
While Webb was expected to miss time recovering from a torn ACL, he made it back to the lineup in Week 2 and played the rest of the way as a nickel cornerback. Unfortunately, he was far from 100 percent, and it showed. Teams picked on him as the weak link in an already limited Ravens secondary, and while he responded with 10 passes defensed, he was also in coverage on eight plays that produced 20 yards or more. Another year removed from surgery, he should blossom into a starting-caliber cornerback on one of the league's best defenses.

8. Tashard Choice, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Choice is already fully-formed as a receiver and pass blocker. Unfortunately, he got lost in the shuffle in 2010 behind Marion Barber -- who will be released -- and Felix Jones, effectively disappearing from the lineup before returning in Week 13 with a 100-yard game against the Colts. You may have noticed his absence when fullback Chris Gronkowski missed the block that led to Tony Romo's season-ending collarbone fracture. With Romo's return, expect Jason Garrett to place a premium on keeping his quarterback healthy, which could mean more time for Choice in the lineup. Last year's 3.7 yards per carry average is really the product of small sample size; Choice's abilities are better represented by his 4.8 yards per carry career average.

7. Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets
Poised to take over as the lead back on a run-happy team after a great 2009 playoff run, Greene struggled to hold onto the ball in Week 1 (admittedly against the Ravens) and spent the rest of the season in a timeshare with LaDainian Tomlinson. Nobody doubts Greene's ability to run effectively with the ball in his hands, but with a quarterback as limited offensively as Mark Sanchez, the running back's role as a pass blocker and dump-off receiver is essential. Young backs often struggle with those dark arts before improving with time, so don't fret: Greene's still on pace to be a very good running back.

6. Geno Atkins, DT, Cincinnati Bengals
At first glance, Atkins doesn't look like a great prospect; he had three sacks in a full season while playing for a mediocre defense. With Atkins, though, it's the more subtle stuff that suggests he has serious potential. For one, Atkins is a defensive tackle. Getting even three sacks as a rookie is a positive sign. There's also a lot bubbling under the surface suggesting that his sack rate could rise, too. While preseason stats aren't consistently meaningful, he produced 4.5 sacks in five games. And during the regular season, Atkins led the team in our advanced pass rush metrics by a good amount. He had nine quarterback hits, four more than any other Bengals defender, while his 17.5 hurries outpaced the rest of the lineup by five. A great pass-rusher with the size to play inside in a 4-3 is rare indeed, but it looks like the Bengals have that in Atkins.

5. Danny Woodhead, RB, New England Patriots
Although he was bound to receive umpteen amounts of hype upon succeeding as a member of the league's best offense, Woodhead deserves to be noted as a wildly efficient player in an incredibly cheap backfield. Woodhead was second amongst running backs in receiving DVOA, and with three additional carries he would have led qualifying backs in rushing DVOA. The easy comp is Kevin Faulk, but Faulk was never this effective. A better statistical comp is Charlie Garner, whose career wouldn't be a bad return for a guy the Patriots picked up for nothing.

4. Jamar Chaney, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
Since Andy Reid took over as the main man in Philadelphia before the 1999 season, the Eagles have struggled to find useful, consistent linebackers to play in their famously aggressive defense. High draft picks like Matt McCoy and veteran acquisitions like Ernie Sims seem to fail with equal aplomb. Their new hope is Chaney, a seventh-round pick in the 2010 draft who took over at middle linebacker after Stewart Bradley dislocated his elbow. By the end of the season, the Eagles were talking about moving Bradley to the strong side and leaving Chaney in as an every-down linebacker. Truthfully, it's a mystery how Chaney fell to the seventh round. An undersized, speedy linebacker that's conversant with pass defense is something every team needs in a shotgun-friendly league. Although Philly will continue to rotate its other linebackers, expect Chaney to be a mainstay for the Eagles going forward.

3. Wallace Gilberry, DE, Kansas City Chiefs
If you're looking for a good rule of thumb when it comes to evaluating the potential impact of young defensive linemen, there's one simple rule: Sacks trump everything. If you can get to the passer as a young player, you will have a job in the NFL. It's that easy. And although Gilberry was an undrafted free agent who the Giants signed and quickly released, he's exhibited an ability to make plays as a pass rusher since the Chiefs signed him. After a 4.5-sack season in 2009, Gilberry contributed seven sacks, eight quarterback hits and 10 hurries for the Kansas City defense in 2010. In each category, that was behind only Tamba Hali for the team lead, despite the fact that Gilberry started just two games. The only issue for Gilberry is opportunity: At defensive end, he's playing behind two top-five picks in Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson, and he's probably too big to play outside linebacker in the 3-4. He could be a double-digit sack guy if he moves to a team that plays a 4-3, which could happen in 2012.

2. Morgan Burnett, S, Green Bay Packers
The Packers traded up to grab Burnett in the third round of last year's draft, and when starter Atari Bigby was placed on the physically unable to perform list to start the season, Burnett went straight into the starting lineup. He impressed before tearing an ACL in Week 4, which ended his season. He'll be healthy for the beginning of the 2011 season, and as a solid all-around player with great athleticism, he's going to get better with experience. With Bigby not tendered a contract and the best secondary in the league around him, Burnett should end up maturing into the next great Packers defensive back.

1. Jared Cook, TE, Tennessee Titans
Cook is a Jermichael Finley clone in terms of size and pedigree, with one pound and two slots in the draft separating them as far as measurables. The scary thing is that Cook is a significantly better athlete than Finley, putting up a 4.49 40-yard dash and 41-inch vertical leap at the 2009 combine, one year after Finley put up a 4.82 and had a 27.5-inch vertical. Like Finley, Cook was basically a shiny bauble with little use until his second pro season, although Finley broke out in training camp, whereas Cook was barely on the field before Week 11. Once Cook got his chance, though, he delivered.

Over the final seven games of the season, Cook produced 26 catches for 303 yards and his first NFL touchdown, including a 96-yard game against the Chiefs in Week 16. And this was with Kerry Collins and Rusty Smith at quarterback. With a full year as the starter ahead of him in 2011, Cook should be an occasionally dominant receiver as the No. 2 option in Tennessee's passing offense, running past safeties worried about Chris Johnson. He could become a regular Pro Bowler, beginning as early as this season.

Aaron Schatz is editor-in-chief of Football Outsiders, you can follow him on Twitter here. Bill Barnwell is a former writer for Football Outsiders who now writes for Grantland. You can follow him on Twitter here.