Should your favorite team move up or down during the NFL draft? It's an inexact science. In my time covering the league, most research I've seen suggested that teams aren't skilled at picking between players at similar tiers, which has steered me toward the idea that trading down is best.
When I did a deep dive into this topic last year, though, I was surprised by the results. It's true that teams that trade up lose more often than they win, but when they're right, the players they land are successful enough to mostly make up for the times when they trade up and whiff. Between 2011 and 2023, in terms of expected value, teams collectively paid about the right price for what they got in return.
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While that's only one study, it seems more realistic to suggest there are scenarios in which trading up make sense. There are certainly types of trades that teams should avoid -- trading a third-rounder in next year's draft for a fourth-rounder this year is still a terrible idea -- but we need to apply more context to come to a conclusion about those moves. I'd argue that most teams should still lean more toward the trading down side of the equation, but each team's roster construction, draft capital and young core also matter in the discussion.
Let's apply some of that to the 2025 draft and answer the question I posed at the beginning: Which teams should be most interested in trading up in Round 1 on April 24? And which should be aiming to move down and amass extra selections? I've identified five franchises that should focus on trading down and three that should be most interested in moving up.
Jump to a team:
49ers | Browns | Commanders | Lions
Packers | Raiders | Seahawks | Vikings
Trade down: Cleveland Browns
The pick: No. 2
It will be tempting for the Browns to stay put. Even if the Titans take quarterback Cam Ward (Miami) at No. 1, Kevin Stefanski & Co. would be in position to draft Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) or their pick of the non-quarterbacks in this class. Team up edge rusher Abdul Carter (Penn State) with Myles Garrett? Add a once-in-a-generation athlete in Travis Hunter (Colorado)? Plug a hole at left tackle with Will Campbell (LSU)? It's easy to envision the Browns adding a player they'll love by staying at No. 2.
After the Deshaun Watson fiasco, though, the Browns are desperately short of significant homegrown talent on rookie deals. The mass of picks the organization enjoyed from their various trade downs during the tanking years have mostly graduated to second contracts or left the organization. With no first-round picks and just one second-round pick between 2022 and 2024, they have one clear starter from their last three drafts in slot cornerback Martin Emerson. Wideout Cedric Tillman flashed at times last season, and offensive tackle Dawand Jones was excellent as a rookie before struggling last season, but there's just not a lot of cost-controlled talent on this roster.
The Browns were the league's fourth-oldest team last season on a snap-weighted basis. With Watson's $46 million salary weighing them down for the next two years, they aren't in position to go on free agent spending sprees. The only deal they've handed out for more than $5 million per season is defensive tackle Maliek Collins' two-year, $20 million pact. The combination of what they paid to get Watson and what they paid Watson on a new contract leaves them in a bind.
If the Browns want a quarterback and think Sanders is their man, they probably need to take him at No. 2. The Giants (No. 3), Raiders (No. 6) or Jets (No. 7) could also justify drafting him in the top 10. For whatever skepticism there is surrounding Sanders, there appears to be a significant drop-off in the eyes of teams between Sanders and the next-best quarterbacks in this class. Considering what average veteran starters such as Derek Carr are getting paid, Sanders doesn't have to project to be a superstar to hint at more surplus value than any other non-quarterback in this draft.
It might be painful to miss out on players perceived to be sure things at the top of the board, but there are no guarantees with any prospects. Consider the 2020 draft, when the Nos. 2 and 3 overall picks were players who were perceived as elite prospects at their respective positions in edge rusher Chase Young and cornerback Jeff Okudah. The Commanders and Lions passed on the ability to draft (or trade their picks to a team who wanted to draft) quarterbacks Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa in the process.
If the Browns aren't targeting Sanders, they need to add more picks, especially in the top 100 selections. They have the most draft capital of any team by Chase Stuart's model heading into April, but I'd argue they could use even more. Spreading some of that capital across additional picks would be a wise move given how they need to recover from the Watson deal.
Trade down: San Francisco 49ers
The pick: No. 11
Likewise, the 49ers find themselves in a difficult predicament as a result of their trades and a quarterback contract. They are much happier with Brock Purdy than the Browns should be with Watson, but they're about to give him an even larger deal in terms of average annual salary. My estimate last summer was that San Francisco would pay Purdy $65 million per year on a new contract. Anything less would be a generous discount from the guy who has been the most underpaid player in football over the past three years.
In terms of rookie contract performers, the Niners are lacking. They traded a total of eight picks to acquire Trey Lance and running back Christian McCaffrey, including three first-rounders as part of the ill-fated deal for the North Dakota State quarterback. The organization has recouped several compensatory picks as their executives and coaches have joined other teams, which has helped supplement their missing draft capital. They've acquired a couple of picks by trading Lance and running back Jeff Wilson, although they had two more outgoing as part of deals to rent edge rushers Charles Omenihu and Chase Young for a half-season.
The only player left on the roster from San Francisco's 2021 draft is cornerback Deommodore Lenoir, who signed an extension last year. Purdy was their only starter from the 2022 draft last season. Their nine picks in 2023 produced kicker Jake Moody and safety Ji'Ayir Brown, who was benched late in the year. The 2024 draft might project to be general manager John Lynch's best, with the 49ers adding a pair of promising midround picks in guard Dominick Puni and safety Malik Mustapha, while wideout Ricky Pearsall, running back Isaac Guerendo and corner Renardo Green showed promise. Brown and offensive lineman Spencer Burford could cycle back into the starting lineup in 2025, but that's more a product of the offseason subtractions than forcing their way into the lineup with their play.
While the 49ers are in a better position than the Browns, the massive outflow of talent this offseason lays bare the issues with their current roster. They're still going to try to compete while McCaffrey, offensive tackle Trent Williams and tight end George Kittle are around, but they need to build a new core around those veterans -- fast. They have serious needs along the defensive and offensive lines and at cornerback.
The good news? The 49ers have 10 picks in this draft, although they lost a fifth-round pick as part of an accounting mistake. Even with a full complement of picks, it wouldn't hurt them to drop down from No. 11 if there's an opportunity to add a Day 2 pick. If they can add multiple starters, they have a shot at righting the ship quickly in 2025.
Trade up: Detroit Lions
The pick: No. 28
The Lions, on the other hand, are in position to be aggressive. With a solid cap situation and excellent drafts under general manager Brad Holmes over the past few years, Detroit has plenty of cost-controlled talent on rookie deals. I count eight above-average-or-better players on rookie contracts who will start in 2025. Every team can always stand to add more talent on the bottom half of their roster, but the Lions are one of the deepest teams in the league.
What they have are two glaring holes, however. One is in a place that's usually a position of strength: guard, where they've moved on from Jonah Jackson and Kevin Zeitler in consecutive offseasons. Graham Glasgow will start at one spot, but Christian Mahogany and Colby Sorsdal are currently penciled in to compete for a starting role. The Lions could still try to address this with a free agent addition, such as Will Hernandez or a trade for someone like Browns standout Wyatt Teller, but it would be a serious surprise if they didn't add one starting-caliber guard before training camp begins.
Their bigger problem is at edge rusher, where they've struggled to find a secondary player on the other side of Aidan Hutchinson. Last year, they signed Marcus Davenport to a one-year deal, only for the oft-injured Saints draftee to go down after two games. They brought in Za'Darius Smith as a short-term rental after Hutchinson suffered his season-ending leg injury, but Smith was released earlier this month.
Davenport is back and Al-Quadin Muhammad was productive in a backup role, but the Lions have a massive need for a pass rusher. As happy as Holmes might be with early picks, such as running back Jahmyr Gibbs and safety Brian Branch, there's a reason teams prioritize players at the top of the positional spectrum: It's harder to find elite edge rushers than it is running backs or safeties. Does adding that edge rusher help Detroit over the hump in the NFC Championship Game against the 49ers in the 2023 season, or keep its defense afloat against the Commanders in the divisional round last season?
It's fun to imagine the Lions trading up to make an all-in move for top-ranked edge rusher Abdul Carter, but that's probably not realistic. Could they jump from No. 28 into the teens for Mike Green (Marshall) or Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M), though? This might be the time for Detroit to take a bigger swing on that second edge rusher next, especially with Hutchinson now eligible for what will surely be a significant contract extension.
Trade up: Seattle Seahawks
The pick: No. 18
General manager John Schneider has been busy reimagining his offense this offseason. After the Seahawks fired offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, they sent most of their highest-paid players on offense out the door with him. Gone are quarterback Geno Smith, wide receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf and guard Laken Tomlinson, with quarterback Sam Darnold, receivers Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and offensive tackle Josh Jones taking their place.
After trading away Smith and Metcalf, the Seahawks have five top-100 picks with which to work: Nos. 18, 50, 52, 82 and 92. By Chase Stuart's draft chart, they have the eighth-most draft capital of any team, giving them all kinds of flexibility. They're the only one of the top 13 teams by draft capital to post a winning record last season, so they're closer to being competitive than most of the teams that have significant capital heading into April.
Schneider also has a clear mandate, at least from Seahawks fans: Fix the offensive line. The only player up front who should be guaranteed a starting role in 2025 is left tackle Charles Cross. Right tackle Abraham Lucas has been fine when healthy, but he has played only 13 games over the past two seasons because of various injuries. Seattle could add a veteran or two between now and the draft, but this is comfortably the worst offensive line in football.
Since 2011, Schneider has been about twice as likely to trade down as trade up, with the Seahawks moving down in the draft 17 times and up on nine occasions. Some of those trades up have been significant successes, as they moved up for Lockett in 2015 and Metcalf in 2019. My instinct is Schneider prefers to amass picks and take as many shots at the board as possible, but if there's an offensive lineman or two he loves in the first three rounds, he might need to consolidate picks and get guys who can immediately step into the lineup.
Trade down: Washington Commanders
The pick: No. 29
This one might feel like a surprise. The Commanders were last year's surprise contenders. Teams with a star quarterback on a rookie deal typically get aggressive and move up the board, since they can use free agency to supplement their roster and aren't as reliant on adding cost-controlled starters around their signal-caller. And frankly, after nailing their QB selection and getting plaudits for turning their franchises around, general managers often get a little cocky about their ability to nail critical draft picks.
Washington is in a bit of a unique spot. While Jayden Daniels starred as a rookie, it had the league's seventh-oldest team on a snap-weighted basis. Commanders fans might point out that imports like tight end Zach Ertz and linebacker Bobby Wagner were outliers impacting those numbers, but they're both back in starting roles for 2025.
The organization has a total of three starters to show from four drafts between 2020 and 2023: guard Sam Cosmi, running back Brian Robinson and safety Quan Martin. On top of that, first- and second-round picks such as edge rusher Chase Young, linebacker Jamin Davis, wideout Jahan Dotson, defensive tackle Phidarian Mathis and cornerback Emmanuel Forbes are no longer in the organization, so they aren't even taking up supplemental roles on the bottom of the roster.
General manager Adam Peters' 2024 draft class was much more promising, but one draft can do only so much. Furthermore, after trades for offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, cornerback Marshon Lattimore and wideout Deebo Samuel, the Commanders don't have picks in Rounds 3 and 4 of this draft. They're also down second- and fourth-round picks in 2026 as part of the deal for Tunsil. Per Stuart's chart, they rank 31st in draft capital in 2025 and last in 2026.
It's understandable why Peters wanted to add veterans to the roster, but the 2024 Texans showed how a team built around veterans and free agent additions can stagnate, even with a young star at quarterback. Picks at the bottom of Round 1 often draw trade calls from teams selecting at the top of Round 2 that want to move up. Peters would be wise to seriously consider those offers.
Trade down: Minnesota Vikings
The pick: No. 24
In his first couple of drafts, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah leaned into trading down and adding extra draft picks. In 2024, though, he went in the opposite direction. He traded up before the draft even took place, sending a pair of second-round picks to the Texans to add an additional first-rounder. He then moved up twice in Round 1, sending two picks to the Jets to move up one spot for quarterback J.J. McCarthy, then shipping three more to the Jaguars to jump ahead six spots for edge rusher Dallas Turner.
In all, by the Stuart chart, Adofo-Mensah traded away 10 picks and 73 points worth of draft capital. In return, he landed the 10th and 17th picks and sixth- and seventh-round selections. Those picks are worth 37.4 points. In other words, the Vikings paid nearly $2 for every $1 of draft capital they used. The difference between the two sides is more than the value of the No. 1 overall pick (34.6 points) in a typical draft.
Objectively, those moves are off to a worrying start. McCarthy missed the season with a knee injury, and while the Vikings couldn't have known their quarterback of the future would get injured, they're already down one year of the value provided by his rookie deal. Moving up one spot for him made sense, but the more curious move was to compound the predraft trade up by making a second deal to jump into the teens for Turner. The pass rusher had a quiet first season, with three sacks and five knockdowns on 300 snaps.
It's still too early to draw significant conclusions from those trades, and one of the reasons Turner wasn't able to crack the starting lineup was the success of Adofo-Mensah's free agent signings, with Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel having great seasons for the 14-3 Vikings. It would be wrong to call their 2024 anything but a success, even if they didn't get much from their first-round picks.
At the same time, Minnesota had the league's oldest team by snap-weighted age. And after trading multiple picks in deals for Turner and running back Jordan Mason, it doesn't have second-, fourth- or seventh-round selections in this draft. The Vikings have a league-low four picks and the least draft capital of any team by Stuart's model. Naturally, they will expect more out of McCarthy and Turner in their second seasons, but this team needs to add more young talent to its roster.
Trade down: Las Vegas Raiders
The pick: No. 6
The new-look Raiders have had an exciting offseason, highlighted by the arrivals of coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith, but there's a lot of work to be done. They went 4-13 a year ago, and while there are factors -- like their dismal fumble recovery rate and turnover margin -- suggesting they are likely to improve on their record in 2025, it's tough to see that regression toward the mean pushing them all the way into playoff contention in the brutal AFC West.
The problem that's been plaguing the Raiders for years is still their biggest weakness: a lack of young, homegrown talent as a product of dismal drafts and decision-making during the Jon Gruden and Josh McDaniels regimes. Including the picks traded for wideout Davante Adams in 2022, they had 14 first- and second-round picks between 2018 and 2023. One of those picks is going to start for the 2025 Raiders, and it's the first one: left tackle Kolton Miller, who turns 30 this year.
Miller is the only player left from the 2018 draft, and star pass rusher Maxx Crosby is the only guy left from 2019. There's nobody on the roster from the class of 2020. Edge rusher Malcolm Koonce is the only 2021 draftee here. There are four players from 2022, but the only starter is guard Dylan Parham. And the team's top two picks from 2023, edge rusher Tyree Wilson and tight end Michael Mayer, haven't been able to sustain regular roles in the lineup. The Tom Telesco-authored 2024 draft delivered a genuine star in first-round tight end Brock Bowers, but there's a missing generation of talent here.
While the Raiders traded a third-round pick to the Seahawks for Smith, that was the selection they received from the Jets as part of the Adams trade last season, leaving them with a full complement of their original picks and two additional sixth-rounders as compensatory selections. Unless they are in love with Shedeur Sanders and are in position to take him at No. 6, moving down and attempting to build through young players is the way to go. Carroll's early days in Seattle -- where the Seahawks benefited from having extra picks in each of his first three drafts -- are an example of how Las Vegas should be approaching its long-term vision with smart short-term decisions.
Trade up: Green Bay Packers
The pick: No. 23
The Packers certainly seem to have an interest in Raiders players, given that they've now signed running back Josh Jacobs and corner Nate Hobbs in successive offseasons. Outside of his forays into free agency, general manager Brian Gutekunst has rebuilt the Green Bay roster by leaning heavily into the draft. His team has as many as eight potential starters from its 2022 draft class alone. It has been the league's youngest team on a snap-weighted age basis in each of the past two seasons. This is a deep, talented team.
Do the Packers lack star power? Maybe. They haven't had a wide receiver top 800 yards since Davante Adams' final season with the team in 2021 or had a pass rusher hit double-digit sacks since Za'Darius Smith did it in 2020. The highest-profile seasons have generally come from their imports. Jacobs racked up 1,671 yards from scrimmage last season. Safety Xavier McKinney's eight interceptions led him to become a first-team All-Pro.
I'm not sure teams inherently need high-profile players or that there's anything wrong with the idea of building a roster around depth as opposed to selling out for top-end talent, but the best teams have a balance. The Chiefs have had a deep roster over the past few years, but they've had cornerstones to rely upon in key situations in quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce and defensive tackle Chris Jones, players opposing teams were terrified of stopping with the game on the line. Those guys typically either made the game-winning play or created enough gravity with their presence to produce an opportunity for somebody else. The Eagles were full of those guys on both sides of the ball last season.
If the Packers think there's somebody like that in this draft, especially at wide receiver or edge rusher, they should give serious thought to taking a bigger swing by sacrificing some draft capital. Gutekunst has traded up in the past for cornerback Jaire Alexander and quarterback Jordan Love, although he has also made moves up for safety Darnell Savage and wideout Amari Rodgers with less desirable results. The Packers have their own picks and could add more if they trade Alexander between now and draft day. Consolidating those might give them their best chance of landing a player who could take them to the next level.