NFL free agency began March 10 with the legal negotiating window, and we've already seen a ton of offseason action -- including a few surprising moves. Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, DK Metcalf, Davante Adams, Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Joey Bosa and D.J. Reed are among the biggest names who have changed teams via free agent signings and trades.
ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder is grading the biggest signings and trades of the offseason, putting each deal into perspective for teams and players. To determine each grade, Walder is evaluating moves based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, compensation, player value/age and the context of a team's short- and long-term outlooks. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it's a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team's chance to win the Super Bowl, either this season or in the future?
Follow along as Walder evaluates and grades each move, with the most recent grades at the top. We've already tackled 74 deals.
coverage:
Best available free agents | Top 100 rankings
Free agency awards | Biggest winners, losers
Overreactions | Kiper's mock draft of Round 1
Jump to a notable deal:
Diggs | Winston | Kupp | Hargrave
Bosa | Hopkins | Jones | Holland
Ward | Sweat | Tunsil | Williams
Cowboys add QB Milton in trade with Patriots
Cowboys get: QB Joe Milton III, 2025 seventh-round pick
Patriots get: 2025 fifth-round pick
Cowboys grade: A-
Patriots grade: C
Milton turned a single-game performance in a meaningless Week 18 contest against the Bills into the backup quarterback job in Dallas and a little draft capital for the Patriots. And you know what? I dig it for Dallas.
In that game, which had no playoff implications for either team -- the Patriots had been eliminated, and the Bills were locked into the No. 2 seed -- Milton completed 22 of 29 attempts for 241 yards and a touchdown. He had a 23% completion percentage over expectation, along with a rushing touchdown. That amounted to a 72 QBR, a number that sells his performance short because it includes a fumble on a handoff that was credited to Milton. He displayed his arm strength but also some touch along with several eye-opening off-platform throws.
The Cowboys have made multiple trades over the past 12 months that show -- in my opinion -- the team is clinging to its previous draft priors too strongly. No deal better demonstrated that than the trade for wide receiver Jonathan Mingo last season, but that could have been a factor in the team's trades earlier this offseason for cornerback Kaiir Elam and linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. This is the opposite, though -- the Cowboys have quickly updated their prior in the face of limited information.
It's not a rash choice, however. The Seahawks once paid a small fortune to sign free agent passer Matt Flynn essentially off a single-game performance. (In fact, in that case Seattle had a slightly larger sample from previous seasons that should have mitigated their interest.) This is not that: The Cowboys are surrendering just a late fifth-round pick and receiving a seventh-round selection. They're also getting three cheap years of team control in return.
If the Patriots were going to move on from Milton, I thought they would get more than this. He was a sixth-round pick a year ago and -- even with all the caveats of the circumstances of his one game -- surely his stock has gone up since then, right? Instead, they got back only close to what they paid for him. Several teams will surely use a fifth- or sixth-round pick on shaky QB prospects later this month.
Milton will become the Cowboys backup (with Cooper Rush now in Baltimore) and is presumably a higher variance backup than other options. But he also has higher upside than other options.
For New England, perhaps new coach Mike Vrabel felt Milton's performance was a mirage and preferred the higher floor of the recently signed Joshua Dobbs as his backup option. Even if that's true, I still would have expected them to get a little more value for Milton. And in the absence of that, I'd rather roll the dice on him developing further.
Patriots sign WR Stefon Diggs
The deal: Three years, $69 million ($26 million guaranteed)
Grade: B
The Patriots finally added a wide receiver for quarterback Drake Maye.
Entering the offseason, New England's receiver group looked as if it were one of the weakest in the NFL. Until Tuesday, it remained so. A week ago, my colleague Mike Reiss wrote that "Mack Hollins or Kayshon Boutte project as the No. 1 options at this point," which inspired little confidence.
Enter Diggs, who brings much-needed ability to that receiver room. He does not appear to have been the Patriots' first choice, nor should he have been. In that same story, Reiss noted the Patriots made a big run at Chris Godwin. The Patriots were also in on DK Metcalf, but he didn't want to come to New England, per NBC Sports Boston. Both of those receivers would have made more sense because they are younger and could feasibly have helped for multiple years. But neither worked out, which put the Patriots in a bind. They still needed a receiver, and there was no perfect option available.
Diggs has been a good player, no doubt. But how good will he be in 2025 at age 31 coming off a torn ACL sustained Oct. 27? Diggs' yards per route run dipped to 2.0 this past season, his lowest mark since 2018. But there are some reasons that have me less concerned.
First and foremost, Diggs' receiver tracking metrics were strong. He posted a high 83 open score (in line with most of his recent seasons) and 74 overall score (tied for second highest among wide receivers) over the eight games he played. Second, he was playing in a Texans offense that deeply regressed in 2024. And third, Diggs played in the slot -- where he has historically been less productive -- 43% of the time last season after never eclipsing 30% in his four seasons in Buffalo. The Patriots can play Diggs wherever they want since he's by far their best receiver.
Still, this looks like an expensive contract for a 31-year-old recovering from a torn ACL. But I agree with my colleague Bill Barnwell in that I want to see the real terms of this deal and that there's a pretty good chance this is really just a one-year commitment. Diggs seemed to wear out his welcome in Buffalo, but he fit in just fine in Houston from what we know. And, again, there's almost no world in which he'll stay four seasons in New England as he did in Buffalo.
Also, what else were the Patriots going to do? After missing out on better options, New England made this choice instead of heading into the draft with effectively nothing at wideout for their blooming second-year quarterback -- which was the worst of all their options. While I'm normally critical of contracts for veterans who are likely to be gone by the time the team is a contender, it would be worse to let Maye have no one to throw to as the Patriots try to develop him.
Giants sign QB Russell Wilson
The deal: One year, $21 million ($10.5 million guaranteed)
Grade: C
A few days ago I complimented the Giants for signing Winston. I felt (at the time) it meant they were opting out of the Aaron Rodgers sweepstakes. I thought it was solid that they landed Winston for only $4 million per year. While they're surely out on Rodgers now, the second part of the Winston analysis is no longer applicable.
Getting Wilson for one year at $10.5 million (because that's what I assume the deal will ultimately be) isn't that wild in a vacuum. But who were they fighting to pay that much to Wilson? And much more importantly -- why?
Read more here on this huge quarterback signing, as we break it down from all angles and size up who won the deal.
Giants sign QB Jameis Winston
The deal: Two years, $8 million
Grade: B+
The Giants either believed they had fallen out of the running for Aaron Rodgers or got tired of waiting around for him to make up his mind. Either way, they're better off signing Winston -- or any of the other bridge quarterback options -- than trying to bring in the 41-year-old Rodgers in an attempt to save Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen's jobs.
The last time Winston was a full-time starter for an entire season was 2019, when he infamously threw 33 touchdown passes and 30 interceptions. He started 10 games over the ensuing four seasons in New Orleans, amassing a 52.8 QBR, before signing with Cleveland in 2024.
He took over as the Browns' starter after Deshaun Watson tore his right Achilles in Week 7. The Browns went 2-5 in Winston's starts, but he played OK and was an improvement over Watson. Winston was benched after throwing three interceptions against the Chiefs in Week 15, and the Browns turned to Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappe for the final three games of the season.
Winston's 55.6 QBR last season ranked 19th in the NFL (placing him between Bo Nix and Bryce Young), though other metrics were less kind. Interceptions continued to be a problem. He threw 12 in 2024, resulting in a 3.7% interception rate that was second highest among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks, ahead of only Anthony Richardson. Winston's minus-1.2% completion percentage over expectation ranked 24th. His sack-to-pressure rate of 26% was fourth highest.
To be fair, Winston was not in the most favorable of circumstances. He played only 11% of his snaps with the lead, contributing to a low 20% play-action rate. Only 37% of his yards came after the catch, the lowest among all qualifying quarterbacks. If nothing else, Winston will provide more excitement than Giants fans have seen in years. From 2020 to 2024, the Giants averaged 6.8 air yards per pass attempt, the lowest in the NFL. Winston -- fueled by a high rate of intermediate throws -- averaged 8.7 air yards per attempt this past season, the third highest in the NFL.
Both in a vacuum and including salary, I would rather have had Jacoby Brissett over Winston as my bridge quarterback to pair with a rookie, assuming the Giants select a quarterback at some point in the upcoming draft. But the Giants could have done a lot worse than this signing, in large part because they got Winston on a cheap contract. At $4 million per year, Winston is in the same compensation realm as Andy Dalton, Joshua Dobbs, Mason Rudolph and Kenny Pickett. I'd much rather have Winston than the latter three, and I find him comparable to Dalton.
This was not a team ready to sign Rodgers in hopes of making a playoff run, but it could have erred by signing a bridge quarterback to a nontrivial contract (see Gardner Minshew, 2024). If you're going to sign a player such as Winston to hold the line until a younger option is ready, then it makes sense to sign him to a small deal so that money can be spent elsewhere.
Don't get me wrong: This signing showed the Giants' weak quarterback hand, as they aren't guaranteed to get a top-flight signal-caller with the third pick in the draft. But there were paths they could have taken that might have derailed their future. Signing Winston to this contract doesn't do that.
Saints sign WR Brandin Cooks
The deal: Two years, $13 million
Grade: D
I'll spare the full rant about the Saints financial situation and their pursuit of mediocrity (read the Chase Young and Justin Reid writeups below if you want that). Here's a quick summary -- the Saints shouldn't be spending cap space now (thus hurting their future championship chances), especially on a veteran receiver who will not help their present championship prospects.
Yes, the Saints badly needed another wide receiver on the depth chart alongside Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Prior to signing Cooks, the receivers behind Olave and Shaheed included Bub Means, Kevin Austin Jr., Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Dante Pettis. Cooks provides the Saints experience and has been productive in the past, but he's 31 and clearly in decline.
Cooks, who missed seven games due to a knee injury in 2024, hasn't recorded 700 or more receiving yards in a season since 2021. He recorded 2.3 yards per route run in 2020, but that number has declined every season since, from to 2.1 (2021) to 1.7 (2022) to 1.3 (2023) to an abysmal 0.9 this past season. His overall score in ESPN's player-tracking-based receiver scores has also dropped every season in that span, starting from a 67 in 2020 (well above average) to a 33 in 2024 (well below average).
Even given that decline, $13 million over two years for Cooks is not particularly expensive. And even though the Saints shouldn't be spending money, it's not that much money at least (not nothing, either, though). But because I think the Saints ought to be rebuilding, signing someone such as Cooks means they are paying him money to use up another one of their scarce resources: playing time.
Cooks' snaps this season could go to players who might develop into future contributors and help when New Orleans is closer to having championship aspirations. Plus, if I'm reading OverTheCap.com's chart correctly, this signing should negate a projected 2026 compensatory pick -- another thing a team in the Saints' position shouldn't do.
Texans sign OT Cam Robinson
The deal: One year, $14.5 million
Grade: B+
The Texans' offensive line looked pretty shaky before offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil was traded to Washington. After Houston dealt its longtime left tackle, it was clear the team needed reinforcements somewhere -- even if the Texans believe 2024 second-round pick Blake Fisher is ready to step up and take a starting role.
I've been critical of Robinson for years, but he's an experienced left tackle who gives them flexibility without breaking the bank at all. Robinson has long been a below-average pass protector -- this past season was the first in which he played at least 100 snaps and his pass block win rate was near the 89% average for tackles (he was at 88%). He has an 83% PBWR for his career. His 70% run block win rate last season ranked seventh worst among tackles but was still higher than his career average.
Houston now has three potential tackles for two spots -- Robinson, Fisher and Tytus Howard. The Texans can now afford to see how Fisher looks in the summer and use that information to decide how to proceed, quite possibly bumping one of the three to guard (Howard has plenty of experience there). Not that this offensive line is in good shape. Beyond the three tackles, the Texans are probably looking at some combination of Laken Tomlinson, Juice Scruggs, Jarrett Patterson and Ed Ingram in the interior.
But Houston is better off with Robinson than without, and the other options out there were very limited. As shaky as the win rates make Robinson out to be, he's a far better and safer option than Chiefs tackle Jaylon Moore, who is surprisingly making more money than Robinson. This is a limited commitment for Houston but one that could help bridge a gap on the offensive line. It's a move well worth making.
Patriots sign C Garrett Bradbury
The deal: Two years, up to $12 million ($3.8 million guaranteed)
Grade: B-
When the Patriots released veteran center David Andrews last week, it wasn't clear who would replace him. Now there seems to be a favorite, if not an answer, as Bradbury is signing with New England after being released by the Vikings on Monday.
With Andrews limited to just four games last season due to shoulder surgery, Ben Brown took most of the team's snaps at center, while Cole Strange and Nick Leverett got a little work, too.
Bradbury has never lived up to his draft selection (18th overall in 2019), but he provides a lot more center experience than Brown or Strange and probably a better short-term outlook than them, too. Last season, Bradbury recorded a 94% pass block win rate (average for a center) and a 67% run block win rate (below average). He has been below average in both categories in his career. Brown had a slightly lower PBWR than Bradbury last season and a slightly higher RBWR. But again, Bradbury has far more experience.
Raising the floor for the Patriots offensive line is good. The team isn't a contender right now, but it is trying to build around and support rookie QB Drake Maye. I don't think Bradbury is much of a needle-mover, but there's probably more confidence he won't be a total weak link than any of New England's other center options.
And while we don't know the final details of the contract, it's clearly not expensive. All else being equal, if I were the Patriots I would rather have signed Andre James -- a free agent after being cut by the Raiders -- but James might have cost more, too (not that the Patriots are short on cap space).
Chargers sign G Mekhi Becton
The deal: Two years, $20 million
Grade: A-
By signing Becton, the Chargers were able to upgrade their running game. And in waiting patiently for the guard market to come to them, they were able to get him to sign a contract at a good price.
Los Angeles ranked 10th in EPA per designed running back carry last season but were only ranked 25th in yards before contact (2.2) on running back carries. And they were 26th in the same category when looking at only interior runs (2.0).
Enter Becton, who can be a quick upgrade at guard.
A 2020 first-round pick by the Jets as a tackle, Becton was a successful reclamation project for the Eagles in 2024. A year ago, he signed a one-year deal with Philadelphia for under $3 million and the Eagles turned him into a guard, where he became an asset. Becton recorded a 92% pass block win rate (average) and a 72% run block win rate (above average) in Philadelphia.
Coincidentally, Becton's pass block win rate was identical to Chargers guard Trey Pipkins III -- whom Becton will presumably replace in the starting lineup -- to the tenth of the percentage point (91.8%). But his run blocking was significantly better than Pipkins' below-average run block win rate of 67.3%.
There is some risk. Becton has only played guard for one season, and it's reasonable to wonder how he'll do when separated from Eagles run game coordinator and offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland. He was also playing next to Lane Johnson, which had to help.
But this is well worth it for the Chargers at these terms. While Aaron Banks and Will Fries received $19.25 million and $17.6 million annually, respectively, Becton comes in far cheaper at $10 million per year. And I don't think our outlook for Becton ought to be much different than for either of those players. Plus, if the team releases Pipkins due to signing Becton, it will save $6.75 million in 2025 cash it otherwise would have spent.
Broncos sign LB Dre Greenlaw
The deal: Three years, $31.5 million ($11.5 million fully guaranteed)
Grade: B+
The Broncos signed two ex-49er defenders -- Talanoa Hufanga and Greenlaw -- with health questions, betting on their upside if both stay healthy. Greenlaw's health concerns are even more pronounced, as he tore his left Achilles in Super Bowl LVIII and then played in just two games this past season before a calf injury forced him out.
The 27-year-old Greenlaw is a well-respected linebacker outside of his health concerns. His most impressive numbers are in coverage. Greenlaw recorded a remarkably consistent 0.6 to 0.8 yards per coverage snap in every season (0.8 is average for linebackers) prior to 2024 while maintaining negative target EPA in each of those seasons.
If I'm Denver, which lost Cody Barton to the Titans in free agency, I'm willing to make this gamble. Quarterback Bo Nix finished 18th in QBR last season, suggesting he might not be a quarterback Denver can count on winning because of, but one the Broncos might be able to win with (at least for now). The latter involves the rest of the roster being dominant, so making a move like this -- counting on Greenlaw to add to an already strong defense -- makes sense. If Greenlaw and Hufanga stay healthy, Denver might have an elite defense, the kind that could buoy Nix and bring immediate success.
The move also comes with future upside. If Greenlaw is able to stay healthy in 2025, the Broncos have him for the following two seasons at a reasonable salary (especially when considering that Jamien Sherwood and Nick Bolton received $15 million per year this offseason). If not, this could turn into a one-year, $11.5 million deal for Denver -- not horrible.
This is not trivial money for an off-ball linebacker who suffered a major injury. But, given the circumstances of Denver's situation and the upside if Greenlaw stays healthy, I'm on board.
Vikings trade for RB Mason
Vikings get: RB Jordan Mason, 2025 sixth-round pick
49ers get: 2025 fifth-round pick, 2026 sixth-round pick
Vikings grade: B-
49ers grade: B
Though the Vikings re-signed Aaron Jones this offseason, running back had been one of very few positions that looked like a draft need for Minnesota. No longer -- they now have Mason, too.
Mason, who recently received a second-round tender from the 49ers as a restricted free agent, is coming off a very nice year for San Francisco in relief for an injured Christian McCaffrey. In 12 games last season, Mason recorded 789 rushing yards on 153 carries (5.2 yards per carry), along with a very limited role in the passing game (11 receptions for 91 yards).
His advanced rushing metrics were stellar. Mason recorded 1.4 rush yards over expectation per carry, per NFL Next Gen Stats. On a per-carry basis, that made him better than Isaac Guerendo (0.9), Patrick Taylor Jr. (0.5), McCaffrey (minus-0.2) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (minus-1.2) on the 49ers. His 207 total rush yards over expectation -- despite playing only 12 games -- ranked sixth best among running backs in the NFL and ahead of players like Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving and Jonathan Taylor. (Mason, 25, was placed on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain in early December.)
The cost here isn't much. The draft capital is the equivalent of a late fifth-round pick when put together, and $7 million guaranteed for a running back is not totally trivial. But I would much rather pay $7 million for Mason than, say, $5 million for Najee Harris. And Mason pairs well with Jones because the veteran can take on the receiving work. Plus, Minnesota built some upside for itself by signing Mason to a two-year deal.
But are the Vikings better off spending the equivalent of a late fifth-round pick plus $7 million guaranteed on Mason or just using a late fifth-round pick on a rookie running back in a deep class? The financial cost of pick No. 160 that Minnesota gave up (a mid-fifth-rounder) is $4.5 million over four years, per OverTheCap.com. That's much cheaper. Of course, Mason will probably be more effective for Minnesota than the average fifth-rounder. A rookie, though, comes with more team control and lower guarantees, and he would be under contract during his peak years -- the first couple of NFL seasons. I'd rather roll the dice in the draft given the circumstances above, but I don't really have a problem with a fairly small investment at a position of need -- especially for a player who played well last season.
For the 49ers, doing nothing would have meant being on the hook for $5.3 million for Mason on the restricted tender. I would not have blinked if they went that route; McCaffrey is obviously an injury risk, and Elijah Mitchell signed with the Chiefs. Again, Mason played well last season! Instead, the team now has Guerendo, Taylor and Israel Abanikanda backing up McCaffrey. The Niners may be fine with Guerendo as their No. 2, or they might figure they can bank on the above -- a deep running back class, a history of late-round picks or undrafted free agents having success at the position and cheap compensation for those young players.
Seahawks sign WR Cooper Kupp
The deal: Three years, $45 million
Grade: C
Seattle's offensive makeover this past week -- swapping out Geno Smith for Sam Darnold, cutting Tyler Lockett and trading DK Metcalf -- resulted in a need at wide receiver for a team that, apparently, was not rebuilding.
The Seahawks' solution? Kupp, at $15 million per year.
The upside is obvious. At his peak in 2021, Kupp had an all-time great wide receiver season, catching 145 passes for 1,947 yards while accumulating a ridiculous 3.2 yards per route run. It's a memorable season for good reason ... but he hasn't approached those heights since. That season remains his only Pro Bowl campaign.
In the three following seasons, Kupp has been somewhat productive on a per route basis, delivering 2.5, 2.0 and 2.0 yards per route run in 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively. Those are far cries from the 2021 number, however, and they've come with struggles to stay on the field. In those three seasons, Kupp played nine, 12 and 12 regular-season games, respectively. Kupp will also be 32 next season.
ESPN's player tracking-based receiver scores tell a clear story of a receiver in decline. Kupp's overall score was an 85 in 2021 and has dropped every year since to 23 last season. Similarly, the most important trait -- open score -- has dropped from 76 in 2021 to 37 in 2024. He has been known for his blocking, which presumably was appealing to the Seahawks in their potentially run-heavy system under Klint Kubiak.
There are some questions of fit with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle's emerging star receiver. Last season, Kupp aligned as a wide receiver just 38% of the time -- Smith-Njigba did it only 20% of the time. Maybe it will be fine, but Smith-Njigba was one aspect Seattle's new offense had going for it, and I'd hesitate to put his production at risk.
Giving Kupp $15 million per year feels rich. Just how rich depends a lot on the structure and guarantees, which we don't know yet. It's possible this could be a one-year deal that pays less than $15 million. It's also possible this could guarantee Kupp more than the $20 million he was slated to make on his old deal. Those details will be important, but I'm working under the assumption that the result will be pricey.
The counterargument is that the Seahawks, after all of their transactions, have tons of cap space. They must spend it somewhere and where else are they getting this kind of receiver upside? And if Joshua Palmer is worth $12 million per year ... why can't Kupp be worth $15 million? But what do the Seahawks think their timeline is now? Doesn't a 32-year-old receiver only help Seattle if it's trying to contend right away? And if so, wouldn't the Seahawks rather have Metcalf (they would have had the money)?
Like any deal for an older star, there is upside. But based on age and fit, I think the odds are against Kupp returning value on his contract for Seattle -- though a lot of that will depend on the contract specifics.
Cowboys signing Edge Dante Fowler Jr.
The deal: One year, $6 million
Grade: B+
At first glance, you might say a team signing Fowler this offseason is paying for an outlier sack season. The 30-year-old journeyman recorded 10.5 sacks with the Commanders in 2024, just the second double-digit sack season of his career. But Fowler is a better pass rusher on a down-to-down basis than one might think.
Not only did he record a 21% pass rush win rate at edge last season (eighth-best), but he was also at 29% in a smaller sample in 2023. He hasn't usually been that productive, but he has a 19% pass rush win rate at edge since 2017 (as far back as the metric goes), which is above average for a pass rusher.
Also -- it's really not that much money! If the Cowboys had forked over, say, the Harold Landry III contract (three years, $43.5 million with $26 million guaranteed), I would have had an issue. But a one-year, $6 million commitment (with incentives up to $8 million) to fill a need? That seems fine. I would much rather bring Fowler back to Dallas for $6 million than, for example, sign Leonard Floyd for $10 million (what Atlanta paid).
Texans trade for G Ingram
Texans get: G Ed Ingram
Vikings get: 2026 sixth-round pick
Texans grade: C-
Vikings grade: B+
Interior pass protection was a major issue for the Texans in 2024. In trading for Ingram, Houston hopes the former second-round pick will provide a low-cost solution at one guard spot. I'm skeptical the Texans will achieve that.
Ingram had a 90% pass block win rate this past season in nine starts before he was benched in favor of Dalton Risner. Ingram's PBWR ranked 54th out of 64 qualifying guards in 2024, one spot ahead of then-Texans guard Shaq Mason. Ingram's run block win rate (71%) was middle of the pack, but clearly Minnesota wasn't happy with his performance. Risner was an instant pass protection upgrade, with a 94% PBWR (10th best) in Ingram's stead.
Ingram could be just a depth player for the Texans, as they signed Laken Tomlinson in free agency, have Juice Scruggs on the roster and could still make more moves in free agency or the draft. There are several guards left on the free agent market, including Teven Jenkins, Mekhi Becton and Brandon Scherff.
On one hand, this is a relatively low-cost move for Houston. On the other, it's not nothing! The Texans not only surrendered a sixth-round pick, but they are taking on the most expensive year of Ingram's contract -- he's set to make $3.2 million in cash this year.
This is almost like found money for Minnesota. It signed Will Fries as a free agent, and depending on how the rest of the offseason shook out, Ingram might not have been a lock to make the Vikings' roster. Now, they get a sixth-round pick instead of having to make that decision.
Titans sign DL Dre'Mont Jones
The deal: One year, $10 million
Grade: C
As I've been grading these deals, I've looked back at past contracts as comps. And as I was thinking about the expensive defensive tackle market this year, I've thought about the 2023 offseason, when two free agents that I liked quite a lot -- Jones and Zach Allen -- changed teams.
If we adjust for inflation, Allen signed with Denver for almost $19 million per year in 2025 money and Jones with Seattle for more than $21 million in 2025 money. One of those deals worked out. Jones very much did not.
After breaking out with a 16% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle in 2022, Jones' pass-rushing efficiency dropped mightily to 8% in 2023. Seattle then mostly had Jones on the edge this past season. That didn't work, either, as he registered an 11% pass rush win rate from the edge, which is well below average. His run stop win rates have mostly been just below average at both spots over the past few seasons.
I'm all for one-year deals because they limit risk, but this one doesn't do it for me. When looking at Jones' career, that 2022 season seems like a blip. It's not the worst risk because he's only 28 and because the Titans have a lot of money to spend and it has to go somewhere. And interior players (if that's where Tennessee chooses to play him) have been commanding big money this offseason.
But if I were Tennessee, I would rather have spent more money on a bigger-ticket edge rush or defensive tackle (especially edge, considering deals for that position have been affordable) than sign Jones to this contract.
Panthers sign RB Rico Dowdle
The deal: One year, $3 million
Grade: A-
If you told me before free agency that Dowdle had signed with Carolina and nothing else, I'd prepare to be quite critical. This is a team that burned a second-round selection on Jonathon Brooks in last year's draft then signed Chuba Hubbard to an extension during the season. Why bring in another free agent running back?
It turns out that there was a good reason: They got a bargain!
Dowdle recorded 61 rush yards over expectation last season for the Cowboys, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That's more than Aaron Jones (plus-41), Najee Harris (minus-3) or Javonte Williams (minus-83). Dowdle caught 39 passes for 249 yards (1 receiving yard over expectation) and was a shade above average in pass block win rate for a running back. But those are solid numbers -- certainly better than those of Harris or Williams. Yet Harris got a couple of million dollars more, and Williams got Dowdle's same contract from Dowdle's old team.
The Panthers are spending this offseason, which means they might not be spenders next offseason. As a result, they might give Dowdle some run this season, let him walk in free agency and pick up a late-round compensatory pick for him. This deal is cheap enough that they can think about that type of thing.
Or it might be worth having Dowdle inked at this rate just to flip him at the deadline. A bargain is a bargain, and there are ways the Panthers can turn that into a little value, even if they didn't need a running back.
Titans sign G Kevin Zeitler
The deal: One year, $9 million
Grade: A
A year ago, I wrote that the Lions signing Zeitler at a value price -- one year for $6 million then -- was one of my favorite moves of their offseason. Well, it's a new team but the same story, with the NFL overlooking Zeitler again because he's a temporary solution.
There's no question that Zeitler is old; he just turned 35. But he also is the best pass protector in this free agent guard class. And offensive linemen age much better than players at most other positions.
Zeitler ranked sixth in pass block win rate (94%) last season after ranking 12th the season before in Baltimore and 11th the season before that. That's reliability! His run block win rate (72%) was a little above average.
I understand that teams want to find solutions for years to come at this point of free agency, which is why younger players such as Aaron Banks and Will Fries got big money. But if I had to bet on whether one of Banks, Fries or Zeitler will be an above-average pass protector in 2025, I'm choosing Zeitler without hesitation! To get him signed for less than half the annual value of Banks (and without any guaranteed cost beyond this year) is so much better of a deal.
I like what Tennessee is doing for its offensive line, especially if it drafts Miami quarterback Cam Ward with the No. 1 pick in April. The Titans are prioritizing getting his protection right and doing a very good job of it.
Cowboys trade for LB Murray
Cowboys get: LB Kenneth Murray Jr., 2025 seventh-round pick (No. 239)
Titans get: 2025 sixth-round pick (No. 188)
Cowboys grade: C-
Titans grade: B+
With Eric Kendricks an unrestricted free agent and DeMarvion Overshown recovering from tearing multiple ligaments in his right knee, the Cowboys needed to add linebackers. In landing Murray, the Cowboys bring in a veteran who has 67 career starts between his four seasons with the Chargers and one with the Titans.
His numbers aren't ideal, though. Murray's 24% run stop win rate last season ranked fifth worst among off-ball linebackers with at least 300 snaps played. It was a career low for Murray, but he always has been below average in that category.
He showed some pass-rushing skills in Tennessee, with 11 pass rush wins and a 28% pass rush win rate -- a good figure for an off-ball linebacker. But that's a small piece of what he does. His nearest defender coverage metrics are about average, but the run-stopping numbers are a red flag.
The compensation on the trade is almost nothing, but that's not the issue. The problem is that Murray is due $7.5 million in cash this year. That's real money!
Quantifying linebackers is difficult, and clearly the Cowboys see something in Murray that our numbers do not. But from what I see, it's tough to justify paying that type of cash to Murray, let alone trading to do it.
As far as the Titans are concerned, I wonder if they were going to keep Murray on the roster. (He has no guaranteed cash due.) If not, they're happy to take a couple of pennies of free draft capital.
Steelers sign CB Darius Slay Jr.
The deal: One year, $10 million (fully guaranteed)
Grade: B
The Steelers ranked only 10th in EPA per play last season, but their ceiling is much higher than that on paper. They have an elite pass rush, and there's the potential for great things in the secondary, too.
At 34, there's no question Slay is an old cornerback. His yards allowed per coverage snap have crept up from 0.8 in 2022 to 1.1 in 2023 and 1.2 in 2024 (a shade higher than average), per NFL Next Gen Stats. Same deal with his target rate, which has climbed from 12% to 15% (a shade higher than average) to 17%. Playing opposite Quinyon Mitchell last season might have contributed to the higher target rate, though.
Despite the above, a team needing secondary help could do a lot worse than those numbers, and Slay probably gives the Steelers a pretty high floor given his consistently solid performance for more than a decade. There's something to be said for short-term commitments at cornerback, a position that is often volatile year to year. I'm sure at least one or two of the big multiyear cornerback deals handed out this offseason will look rough a year from now.
And the upside is that Slay is playing opposite Joey Porter Jr., a good young cornerback who has allowed 0.9 yards per coverage snap in his two-year career (but also has committed 27 penalties in those two seasons).
No matter who plays quarterback in Pittsburgh this season, the Steelers are going to need more from their defense. Signing Slay for $10 million is a low-risk way to help that cause.
Broncos sign TE Evan Engram
The deal: Two years, $23 million ($16.5 million fully guaranteed)
Grade: B
Quarterback Bo Nix has himself a new playmaker.
Engram was let go by the Jaguars after a down 2024 season in which he played only nine games because of a hamstring injury and a torn labrum. He compiled 365 receiving yards and only one touchdown. But assuming he can recover from that labrum injury, Engram should be able to help coach Sean Payton and Nix in Denver's offense.
Though Engram's raw totals last season weren't impressive, he maintained a decent 1.6 yards per route run off an exceptional 28% target rate. In 2023, he recorded 1.7 yards per route run and a 26% target rate. The route-running numbers don't jump off the page, but consider that 1.6 also equaled Joshua Palmer's yards per route run as a wide receiver, and he received a deal of $12 million per year from Buffalo.
Engram will turn 31 in December, so there is some age-based decline risk here. But Engram should be a clear upgrade over Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull, who ran the most routes at tight end for Denver last season. That's the most important takeaway.
DT Javon Hargrave signs with Vikings
The deal: Two years, $30 million ($19 million guaranteed)
Grade: B-
The defensive tackle deals have really stood out to me this week. I thought Milton Williams and Tershawn Wharton were overpaid. And then there were several deals for older defensive tackles this offseason that I didn't agree with. Grady Jarrett most notably comes to mind, but I didn't like the Jonathan Allen deal, either.
I see a difference with the Hargrave contract, however. Because the last time we saw Hargrave he was still quite effective. Even though his sack total dropped from 11.0 to 7.0 from 2022 to 2023, his pass rush win rate in 2023 and 2024 (he played three games last season) was 15% at defensive tackle. That's good! That number would have ranked fourth highest at the position last season, between All-Pro Zach Allen and Pro Bowler Leonard Williams.
There's still plenty of risk, though. Hargrave is 32 years old and is coming off a partially torn right triceps injury. But if I'm going to bet on an older defensive tackle, I'd rather it be a guy like Hargrave than someone like Jarrett who has already shown more signs of on-field decline.
Brian Flores now has some more talent to work with along his defensive line ... even if a lot of it is on the older side.
Cowboys trade for CB Elam
Cowboys get: CB Kaiir Elam, 2025 sixth-round pick (No. 204)
Bills get: 2025 fifth-round pick (No. 170), 2026 seventh-round pick
Cowboys grade: B-
Bills grade: B+
Elam feels like he has been a potential trade candidate for years but it has finally happened, as he's headed to Dallas.
For simplicity, let's boil the draft pick compensation down to one number. Since the fifth-rounder the Cowboys dealt was the first of their three compensatory picks toward the end of the round, then the Bills got the equivalent of a mid- or mid-to-late sixth.
In his three seasons since being selected with the No. 22 pick in 2022, Elam has made just 13 starts for the Bills, postseason included. Elam missed 14 games in 2023, some on injured reserve with an ankle injury but some as a scratch (though the injury might have contributed). Elam played in 14 games in 2024 (postseason included), and he played in 39% of the defensive snaps in those contests. He was inactive for two of Buffalo's three playoff games.
Over the course of his career, Elam has allowed 1.3 yards per coverage snap on a 16% target rate as the nearest defender -- higher than average on both but not outrageous -- per NFL Next Gen Stats. He has allowed 23.5 total EPA as the nearest defender in his career and has allowed a positive EPA (positive is bad for a defender) in all three seasons.
After three seasons in Buffalo, it was clear the Bills were not thrilled about having Elam on the field. Perhaps he'll be able to turn his career around in Dallas, but Buffalo seems fortunate to even get this much at this stage. Then again, a comp for this trade might be the 2023 deal for Jeff Okudah, when the Falcons dealt a fifth-round pick for the former first-rounder three seasons into his career.
Rams to sign DT Poona Ford
The deal: Three years, $30 million ($17 million guaranteed)
Grade: B
Ford, a veteran interior defensive lineman, can play both nose tackle and 3-technique and is coming off possibly the best season of his career with the Chargers. He has developed pass-rushing proficiency late in his career which means he can be an asset against both the run and pass.
He got attention for his pass-rushing breakout in the first half of the 2024 season, and through Week 11, he ranked fifth in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (though he fell off down the stretch and ultimately averaged a roughly average 9% PRWR). Actually, the win rates have been fond of Ford for a few years now -- he has been a little above average in pass rush win rate since 2021. He ranked 20th out of 67 interior defensive linemen in run stop win rate last season, too.
With the Rams, Ford will rotate in alongside Braden Fiske and Kobie Turner at what is a serious position of strength for Los Angeles. While in general I don't love paying for late-career breakouts (in this case for fear it was a Jesse Minter-induced blip), the price here is pretty solid compared to the rest of the very expensive defensive tackle market.
Falcons signing Edge Leonard Floyd
The deal: One year, $10 million
Grade: C
Last offseason, Floyd was coming off a nice year with the Bills in which he had recorded 10.5 sacks, a 16% pass rush win rate at edge and his fastest pass rush get-off (0.77 seconds) in years, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The 49ers signed Floyd to a two-year, $20 million deal. But while Floyd still recorded 8.5 sacks in 2024, his get-off reverted to back to his career norm, and his win rate dropped to 13%, below average for a starting edge rusher.
Atlanta's interminable search for an edge rusher is still going -- last summer's Matthew Judon trade was a flop -- and the team certainly needed help at that spot for 2025. And the Falcons are in less of an advantageous cap situation than your typical rookie contract QB team because they spent $90 million on one year of Kirk Cousins (or maybe $100 million on two years, if they keep him). So I can understand they weren't going to be in on the big-ticket edge rushers in this free agency class, especially with the position being such a spot of strength in this year's draft.
In Floyd they're opting for a pure Band-Aid -- someone who has a proven track record of getting sacks. It's a limited commitment, but they're also choosing a player who is on the decline and has a very limited ceiling. If the Falcons were good with giving Floyd $10 million, I ask where were they on Malcolm Koonce? Koonce got a one-year, $12 million deal to stay in Las Vegas but definitely has more upside than Floyd.
Chargers to sign RB Najee Harris
The deal: One year, $5.25 million
Grade: C+
Harris' contract ended up being cheaper than I thought it would be. And it's hard to be too critical of a $5 million deal given the current salary cap.
But I also don't think Harris adds much to the Chargers. What Harris has working for him is volume. It's why he's useful in fantasy football and puts up compiler rushing stats -- such as his 1,000-plus rushing yards in each of the past four seasons. And truly, it works in actual football, too. He has started and played every regular-season game of his career (68). That availability is remarkable.
But I don't think his numbers are much better than replacement level. There have been 32 running backs over the past decade with at least 1,000 carries and Harris' 3.9 yards per carry ranks 30th out of that group. He has had negative rush yards over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) in three out of four seasons. He put up big receiving numbers in 2021, when he had 74 receptions (!) but hasn't come close since, losing some of that work to Jaylen Warren.
To be fair to Harris, he has been better on the rushing side the past two seasons compared to his first two, though he still had minus-3 rush yards over expectation in 2024.
Ultimately the Chargers could do worse than Harris, but he's not elevating their rushing attack.
Colts to sign S Camryn Bynum
The deal: Four years, $58.5 million
Grade: B-
My colleague Matt Bowen ranked Bynum after Jevon Holland, Tre'von Moehrig and Talanoa Hufanga, but he was still No. 21 overall, ahead of Justin Reid. It seems the market agreed, as Bynum's contract slotted in just a hair behind the first three safeties and ahead of Reid. He moves from a very successful defense in Minnesota to join a Colts secondary that has nice potential when coupling him with cornerback Charvarius Ward.
Compared to the other top free agent safeties, Bynum played deeper. His average depth at the time of snap was 12.2 yards while Holland, Moehrig and Reid all had single-digit figures.
I think it's natural to have some concern that Brian Flores' creative defensive scheme makes it harder to evaluate Bynum outside of that system. But other than that, all indications are that the Colts are adding a talented safety in the prime of his career.
Bills to sign Edge Joey Bosa
The deal: One year, $12.6 million
Grade: B
In signing the 29-year-old Bosa, the Bills are hoping to fight against two separate and powerful forces -- injury risk and decline. Bosa has been able to play only 28 games over the past three seasons, though 14 of those came in 2024. But when he was when on the field, his numbers have not been like the Bosa of the past.
In those past three seasons combined, Bosa has 13.0 sacks (5.0 coming last season). In 2023, his pass rush win rate at edge was a below average 14%. It dropped in 2024 to 12%. That's a far cry from 2017, when Bosa was at 34%, the second-highest pass rush win rate at edge since the metric was introduced in 2017. He was at 25% in 2019 and 2020. The last time he was in that neighborhood was a five-game sample in 2022, when he hit 23%.
Yet, it's not impossible for him to get healthier and at least partially return to form. If he could manage to be something like what he was 2021, with a 19% pass rush win rate and 10.5 sacks, this deal would be a home run.
The median outcome is that Bosa disappoints and can't really help Buffalo. But the chances he turns in a big season are a lot higher than, say, Azeez Ojulari doing the same -- right? I think it's a gamble worth making given the one-year nature of the deal and the price.
WR DeAndre Hopkins to sign with Ravens
The deal: One year, $5 million
Grade: B+
Hopkins probably does not have much left in the tank. The Chiefs indicated that when Hopkins was playing less than 50% of snaps at the end of the regular season and then only 28% of their offensive snaps in the playoffs.
But $5 million? In a world where Tutu Atwell gets $10 million? I'm on board.
(Side note: Atwell has ruined every wide receiver contract for me. Because my first thought is always, "Well, if Atwell is worth $10 million, then surely X is worth Y!")
There are some signs of Hopkins' demise being premature. He still posted a 70 open score in ESPN's receiver scores last season. Granted, it came with career-low (at least dating to 2017) catch and YAC scores. But the open score shows he still has something.
Though his playing time dropped off, the 32-year-old Hopkins also recorded 1.8 yards per route run last season between Tennessee and Kansas City. You could do a lot worse than that. Here are some receivers who had a lower yards per route run last year -- Jordan Addison, Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, Deebo Samuel Sr., DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer.
Some of those are stars with high volume, but the much-younger Palmer just got $12 million per year from the Bills. Either way, I'm more than good with rolling the dice on Hopkins as a depth receiver for Lamar Jackson for this little money.
Saints to sign S Justin Reid
The deal: Three years, $31.5 million ($22.5 million guaranteed)
Grade: C
You can basically copy and paste my analysis from the Chase Young signing for Reid.
Heck, I like Reid quite a bit at these terms. He has been a reliable safety for years and while other safeties are getting more buzz, they also are getting more money -- on less of a track record. Clocking in at $10.5 million per year makes Reid's deal quite a bit cheaper than Tre'von Moehrig's ($17 million per year) or Jevon Holland's ($15 million) and I'm not sure the difference between them is that vast.
Reid's yards allowed per coverage snap jumped to 0.9 this season (higher than his normal levels and higher than average for a safety), but those numbers are noisy and quite a lot of that yardage came on a 58-yard touchdown surrendered to Tre Tucker when Reid was beat but also tripped.
But the problem is that this deal is not made in a vacuum. It's made by the Saints, and we're back to their tight cap situation and the reality that money spent now means it can't be spent later -- when they could be closer to contention.
As of this writing, the Saints have $15 million in effective cap space this year and only $32 million next year, per OverTheCap.com. That number includes Davon Godchaux (whom they traded for on Monday), but not Young, Juwan Johnson (whom they agreed to re-sign on Tuesday) or Reid.
Next year, they'll be able to save $9 million against the salary cap by cutting Derek Carr and another $9 million when they cut Godchaux. But there aren't a lot of other pennies to scrape. And much of their 2026 cap will be spent on players such as Cameron Jordan, Ryan Ramczyk, Tyrann Mathieu and Demario Davis, many or all of whom will no longer be on the team at that point.
In general, spending future money to effectively gain cap space is not just fine, it's good. Because the cap goes up every year, it's almost like a negative interest rate environment. But there are limits and the Saints push them to try to maintain respectability, instead of pooling their resources into the future, when they could reset and once again push for a championship.
That's why I'm critical. The way they spend is ineffective in chasing a championship -- and that's the goal.
Cowboys to sign RB Javonte Williams
The deal: One year, $3 million
Grade: C
The Cowboys are fixed.
I'm kidding, of course. But the free agent-resistant Cowboys made a small move to (try to) fill their running back need. On the surface, paying $3 million for a running back is fine. But you're presumably trying to get a serviceable back out of that, and I'm not convinced Dallas did.
Williams averaged only 3.7 yards per carry and had minus-83 rush yards over expectation in 2024. Those are really rough numbers. His workload decreased as the season went on, and he recorded only 16 carries over Denver's final four games, including the postseason. Williams has had positive rush yards over expectation only once. That was in his rookie season of 2021, before his ACL tear in 2022.
One saving grace is his work in the receiving game: Williams recorded 52 receptions for 346 yards, and that's how he can bring value to the Cowboys. But even with that, he averaged negative receiving yards over expectation. So maybe pass protection is where Williams can truly help the Cowboys, as his 86% pass block win rate was above average for running backs.
I'm not going to be overly critical here because the opportunity cost is so low. But if I were the Cowboys, I wouldn't want to enter the season banking on Williams having a major role. I would be looking elsewhere -- the draft -- for another running back.
Edge Dayo Odeyingbo to sign with Bears
The deal: Three years, $48 million ($32 million guaranteed)
Grade: B
Odeyingbo, a 2021 second-round pick, recorded only 3.0 sacks this past season after posting 8.0 in 2023. The underlying metrics suggest the former Colt actually improved, though -- his pass rush win rate at edge jumped from 12% to 16%, the latter number being the equivalent of average for a starting edge rusher.
What intrigues me about Odeyingbo is not just that improvement but the fact that he has the versatility to rush from inside as well. Over the past two seasons, he has recorded a 14% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, a strong number because wins are less common in the interior. Though most of Odeyingbo's interior rushes have come in clear passing situations (when it's easier for a defender to win), it's an impressive number.
One can imagine this deal going a couple of ways. First, there's room for Odeyingbo to further improve. He took another step this past season after taking one the year before that -- who's to say he can't take another? If he does, this contract becomes an easy win and a value.
But there's a world where the Bears simply overpaid. That's something to be mindful of, but it's more of a concern with an older veteran who suddenly had a single outlier season. In this case, Odeyingbo has grown into a larger role, but he is still young. Though we might have seen his best, we don't know yet whether he's peaked or if he's on a track for further improvement.
If I could choose, I'd much rather have taken Malcolm Koonce at a lower salary, though his health is somewhat of an unknown. Odeyingbo fills an important need for Chicago, however, and likely at a decent cost. With a strong edge class in the upcoming draft, the position overall has become a bit of a value in free agency, so it makes sense to take advantage of that.
Vikings re-signing CB Byron Murphy Jr.
The deal: Three years, $66 million
Grade: C+
No defensive player in the NFL was targeted more times this past season than Murphy (117), per NFL Next Gen Stats. I don't love that, even though that number slightly exaggerates the issue -- Murphy's 17% target rate ranked only 10th highest among outside corners in 2024.
But there's good news. While that target share is more than Murphy has been targeted in the past, he has never been great at target deterrence and his results have been solid against that activity. Murphy has allowed between 1.0 and 1.2 yards per coverage snap in every season of his career, straddling the 1.1 average for corners, per Next Gen Stats). He has also experience both out wide and in the slot.
Minnesota plays a zone-heavy scheme and has had a ton of success -- the Vikings ranked third best in EPA allowed per dropback in 2024 -- with Murphy playing a big role. Murphy is coming off a season with great on-ball metrics (he had six interceptions and minus-21 EPA as a nearest defender), but I am wary of paying for that given how volatile those numbers can be.
I also think the price is a little high. I would rather have D.J. Reed or Charvarius Ward than Murphy, and yet both signed for cheaper contracts. Plus, while Murphy's nearest defender numbers have been consistent, they aren't amazing.
Panthers to sign S Tre'von Moehrig
The deal: Three years, $51 million
Grade: B-
If the Panthers are going to take the next step in 2025, they must get better play out of their defense. Carolina ranked 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback and 31st in EPA allowed per designed carry this past season.
Enter Moehrig, who could help on both fronts. The 25-year-old former Raider was a consensus top-two safety (along with Jevon Holland) in this year's free agent class after having arguably his best NFL season in 2024. Moehrig moved much closer to the line of scrimmage, which probably helped with his breakout. He played deep safety only 47% of the time in 2024 compared to 78% in his first three seasons, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
The Panthers will presumably deploy Moehrig in a similar way in hopes of him helping shore up their run defense. In coverage, Moehrig has five interceptions over the past two seasons. Though nearest defender numbers are awfully noisy for safeties, he allowed 0.4 yards per coverage snap this past season, better than the 0.6 average for safeties.
The price does seem a little high given that Holland cost a couple million per year less. But Carolina needed to add defensive talent and Moehrig was one of the best defenders available.
Broncos to sign S Talanoa Hufanga
The deal: Three years, $45 million ($20 million guaranteed)
Grade: B-
It has been a couple of years since Hufanga caught fire in 2022 and earned first-team All-Pro honors, but it's hard to forget the way he flew around the field delivering hits and disrupting offenses. It hasn't been great since.
He tore an ACL in November 2023, which cost him the rest of that season and the beginning of 2024. After he returned to action, an ankle injury cost him a game, then he tore ligaments in his wrist which cost him several more. Hufanga has played only 17 games over the past two seasons.
Now he's heading to Denver to pair with Brandon Jones, who excels at limiting explosives, to form a strong safety tandem that could work really well together. And they're playing behind a great defense with other stars such as cornerback Pat Surtain II, edge rusher Nik Bonitto and defensive tackle Zach Allen, which ought to give Hufanga freedom to make the high-flying plays he's known for.
On the fun scale, this signing is an A. But I can't help but think that the Broncos paid a market rate for a player who should have been more of a buy-low signing. Considering the injuries and that it has been two-plus seasons since he was considered elite, I'm not sure it makes sense that Hufanga got the same $15 million per year that other safeties, including Jevon Holland, received. That said, one can imagine this really working out and I have to think that upside (which kept my grade as high as it did) was awfully tempting for Denver.
Colts to sign QB Daniel Jones
The deal: One year, $14 million
Grade: B
Jones has moved into the bridge quarterback phase of his career. But this is a nice situation for him, as he gets to compete with Anthony Richardson for the Colts' starting job. I would think he has a real chance, too, considering Indianapolis already has benched Richardson (for Joe Flacco) once before.
In Jones, the Colts get a quarterback who has a 53.2 career QBR buoyed by a well-timed career season in 2022 in which he recorded a 62.9. Jones was not asked to do a ton that season, though, averaging a mere 6.0 air yards per attempt. His play has dramatically declined in the two seasons since, registering a 44.4 QBR in 16 starts.
Perhaps Jones turns out to be a better quarterback than Richardson, but he certainly doesn't have the upside. Richardson, the fourth overall pick in 2023, has a 47.0 QBR in 15 career starts. Of major concern is that Richardson has a minus-10% (!) completion percentage over expectation in his career.
As a bridge quarterback, Jones is a fine choice to raise the team's floor in the event Richardson does not develop. Jones doesn't have the upside Justin Fields does, but he's costing the Colts less than half what Fields is getting from the Jets in guaranteed money.
When comparing Jones' contract to past deals of bridge starters, the price tag seems a shade high but fine. It's better than the $15 million guaranteed the Raiders gave Gardner Minshew last year. I think backup-ish quarterbacks are underpaid as is, so I'm OK with $14 million for Jones. Other options could have included Jameis Winston or Jacoby Brissett, but there's probably a smidge more likelihood that Jones might be helpful beyond 2025 given that he doesn't turn 28 until May.
Texans, Eagles swap S Gardner-Johnson and G Green
Texans get: S C.J. Gardner-Johnson, 2026 sixth-rounder
Eagles get: G Kenyon Green, 2026 fifth-round pick
Texans grade: A-
Eagles grade: C
The Eagles have found their interior lineman rehabilitation project. After turning Mekhi Becton from a first-round letdown at tackle into a successful guard, it looks like the Eagles could now try a similar thing with Green -- a 2022 first-rounder -- since Becton is a free agent.
Green, who missed the entire 2023 season due to a shoulder injury, started 23 games between 2022 and 2024 for the Texans. Last season, he was benched as part of a Texans interior line that had difficulty protecting C.J. Stroud, and then he later suffered another shoulder injury that resulted in him landing on injured reserve. Green has an 88% pass block win rate and 67% run block win rate over his career, both below-average numbers -- particularly so with pass protection.
The Eagles didn't land Green for free, though. They had to flip Gardner-Johnson to get him. He will make about $5.6 million more than Green this season, but he's also a clearly better player as an established veteran, and he will fill a need for the Texans. Gardner-Johnson, who had six interceptions in 2024, can replace Eric Murray, who left Houston for Jacksonville in free agency. Murray played more in the box and more nickel corner last season for the Texans than Gardner-Johnson did for the Eagles, but that's a role Gardner-Johnson played earlier in his career. He has two years left on his contract and can be a helpful addition for Houston.
Vikings signing G Will Fries
The deal: Five years, $88 million
Grade: C
Any of these guard deals are going to look expensive ... because they are. But it's also the nature of a tight lineman market. If you want to get a quick fix at guard, it's going to cost you.
The Vikings opened the 2024 season with Ed Ingram at right guard before benching him in favor of Dalton Risner midway through the year. Risner was a significant improvement in pass protection over Ingram but has recorded below-average run block win rates in each of the past two years and is now a free agent. The Vikings opted to fill the void with Fries, a young guard who was putting together his best season last year before a tibia injury knocked him out after five games. Fries is likely an upgrade in the running game from Risner, but he had a 92% pass block win rate (average) last season, below Risner's 94% mark.
In a much larger sample in 2023, Fries posted a 91% pass block win rate and 70% run block win rate -- both right about average. This is a better deal than the Packers' move for Aaron Banks (probably, since we haven't seen the guarantees). I would rather have Fries than Banks, and the Vikings are getting him for $17.6 million per year as opposed to the $19.3 million per year that Banks received. On the other hand, this is a shade more expensive than Ben Powers' contract with the Broncos last offseason -- but Powers had better numbers at the time than Fries does now.
I still would rather try to find a cheaper short-term stopgap at guard, but given Fries' age (turning 27), there's at least a little upside here if he continues to ascend.
Giants signing S Jevon Holland
The deal: Three years, $45 million ($30.3 million guaranteed)
Grade: B+
Safety is perhaps the hardest position to quantify. So for this position -- more than any other -- I lean on qualitative observations from trusted sources like my colleague Matt Bowen, who had Holland as the seventh-best free agent available entering Monday and the top-ranked safety.
On Monday, a slew of non-Holland safeties signed new deals. Tre'von Moehrig received $17 million per year from the Panthers, Talanoa Hufanga agreed to a $15 million-per-year contract with the Broncos and Camryn Bynum landed $15 million from the Colts. So when I saw Holland also got $15 million per year -- yeah, it seems that price is popular with the position right now -- Tuesday with the Giants, I took notice. The best safety in the class for no financial premium relative to his peers? That seems like a good sign.
Holland is a versatile safety who played more center field in his first two seasons in the NFL (average depth at snap of 12.4 yards, per NFL Next Gen Stats) before creeping closer to the line of scrimmage in 2023 and 2024 (9.8), while mixing in some more nickel corner as well. For the Giants, he fills a need and critically adds talent (along with Paulson Adebo, who agreed with them Monday) to a defense that has a pretty excellent pass rush but needed help elsewhere. Holland will play alongside 2024 second-round pick Tyler Nubin, presumably replacing Jason Pinnock, who is also an unrestricted free agent.
Vikings signing DT Jonathan Allen
The deal: Three years, $60 million
Grade: D+
When the Commanders cut Allen, he had been scheduled to make $15.5 million in non-guaranteed money. My first thought when seeing his new deal with the Vikings: Why didn't Minnesota just trade for him? Dealing a conditional seventh-round pick for Allen's old deal would have probably been better than handing him this new contract, though we won't know that for sure until we see the guarantees and structure. I suppose one possible explanation is that Allen could have wanted a new deal had the Vikings (or any team) traded for him. But I'd also argue he should not have had the leverage to make that happen.
I don't love giving Allen $20 million per year, anyhow (although, again, we haven't seen the guarantees yet). Allen, 30, missed nine games last season with a torn pectoral muscle, returning in late December.
His play has also dropped off. After recording 16.5 sacks and reaching the Pro Bowl twice over 2021 and 2022, Allen has just 8.5 regular season sacks over the past two years (albeit in only 24 games). It's not just the sacks, though. In 2021 and 2022, Allen was a top-10 pass rush win rate defensive tackle; last season, he had an 8% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, below average for the position. His playing time dipped, too, from 79% of defensive snaps in games played in 2023 to 60% in 2024, in part due to the addition of rookie Jer'Zhan Newton.
I've underestimated the defensive tackle market this year -- it's somewhat surprising given the strong defensive tackle draft class -- but given the signs of decline, Allen does not fit the profile of a player I'd want to be spending on.
Giants signing CB Paulson Adebo
The deal: Three years, $54 million ($38.5 million guaranteed)
Grade: C
Although he fills a need for the Giants, Adebo received more annually than D.J. Reed, who was the No. 1-ranked cornerback on Matt Bowen's list (Adebo was No. 8). Adebo is coming off a shortened season after suffering a broken femur in Week 7. But his on-ball production has been very favorable over the past two seasons, as he recorded seven interceptions and a combined minus-49 EPA allowed as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Still, paying for unstable on-ball production has me awfully wary -- especially when Adebo's other nearest-defender numbers aren't so hot. Last season, albeit in a limited sample, Adebo allowed 1.6 yards per coverage snap (higher than the 1.1 league average) and was targeted 21% of the time (the highest target rate of any outside corner with at least 250 coverage snaps). Though that was likely in part due to the small sample, Adebo has had higher-than-average target rates every season of his career.
If I'm paying big money for a cornerback, I'd rather it not be someone who opponents have consistently try to throw at.
Saints re-sign Edge Chase Young
The deal: Three years, $51 million
Grade: D
The Saints need an intervention. Their affinity for shopping is out of control, and it is saddling poor New Orleans fans year after year after year with a team that might win nine games but has next to no shot at winning the Super Bowl. And every time the Saints make another ill-advised signing -- at this point, they are pretty much all ill-advised -- they kick the mediocrity-at-best can down the road once again.
As of this writing, before Young's deal hits the books, the Saints are $11 million over the 2025 cap -- and only $48 million under the 2026 cap. And that was before this deal, which presumably will be light in 2025 (and therefore more expensive in 2026 and beyond).
It doesn't really matter what you think of Young. I think he's not bad! He isn't even 26 yet! Once it became clear he was never going to be the player he was promised to be when he was the No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft, he settled into a role that will be useful for seasons to come. He isn't a star but can rush the passer a little, and that's worth something.
But again, it doesn't matter in this situation. Since the Saints constantly push themselves so close to the limit of what they can spend, they end up facing brutal choices like they had this offseason: Do they spend millions more on someone such as quarterback Derek Carr to make it easier for them to be cap compliant now (but harder later)?
This transaction is another example of that. As my colleague Katherine Terrell points out, the Saints would have had $9 million in dead cap had Young's contract voided on Wednesday. Instead, they will kick that can down the road too. Time and again, the Saints fail to take the obvious team-building action: Tear it down, trade away their veterans, stop spending. Then regroup, with assets, to make a real run at it. The Saints ought to have an ability to think beyond the season directly in front of them. And yet, they're here again.
Which brings us back to Young. As compared to the rest of the league, $17 million is not an expensive deal for an edge rusher of Young's caliber (and that's the only thing saving this grade from being an F). But when compared to Monday's edge rusher transactions, it's a bit expensive. Josh Sweat agreed to a contract of only $19 million per year, while Khalil Mack's deal netted $18 million and Haason Reddick's deal was for $14 million. But perhaps the edge market corrects next year and the Saints can flip Young's contract for a profit.
But there should be no lauding what the Saints did here, because they are doing what they always do -- spending future money when they shouldn't.
Panthers to sign DT Tershawn Wharton
The deal: Three years, up to over $54 million ($30 million guaranteed)
Grade: C
Every year I do this, there seems to be a position I overestimate and another that I underestimate. Nine or so hours into grading these 2025 deals, defensive tackle appears to be the position I underestimated. But even though the numbers at this position are higher than expected, I'm going to be critical because there are reasons to be wary of signing Wharton to a contract at this price point.
Wharton is coming off a career season in which he recorded 8.5 sacks between the regular season and the playoffs. But his 7% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle doesn't match the sack production and ranked 34th out of 47 qualifiers at the position.
And much like with Milton Williams, there are further mitigating circumstances. Wharton often played next to the best defensive tackle in football (Chris Jones) and was on a good team (Chiefs) -- which lead to favorable pass rushing circumstances. Jones soaked up double-teams (he had a 70% double-team rate while playing defensive tackle), while Wharton's 53% was lower than average. Wharton also had a below-average run stop win rate.
Is Wharton's contract worth this much in this pricey defensive environment? I'm not buying it.
Colts bring in CB Charvarius Ward
The deal: Three years, up to $60 million ($35 million guaranteed)
Grade: B+
In Ward, the Colts landed one of the top players in this strong free agent cornerback class. He's coming off what is widely considered a down season for him, mostly because of lower on-ball production. He had zero interceptions and allowed 12.7 EPA as the nearest defender over 12 games in 2024, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
The numbers don't look as bad on second viewing: Ward allowed only 1.0 yards per coverage snap and had a lower-than-average target rate (13%). Similar to what I wrote about with D.J. Reed, Ward has actually been remarkably consistent at a volatile position, allowing 1.0 yards per coverage snap -- which is better than average -- in five of his past six seasons (and the sixth was only 1.2).
It's always hard to invest big money on a cornerback, but if a team is going to do it, the best numbers to look for are multiple years of success on per-coverage-snap metrics (as opposed to paying for interceptions or pass breakups). Target rate and yards per coverage snap allowed are more stable than on-ball metrics such as nearest defender EPA. In that regard, Ward fits the bill.
We don't have the exact contract terms as of this writing, but with Ward's deal being worth up to $60 million over three years, I'll assume it will come in in the $16 million to $18 million range per year. Again, like with Reed, I would rather have Ward than Carlton Davis, who received $20 million per year from the Patriots.
Ward sat out three games last season after the death of his 1-year-old daughter and indicated after the season he probably would want a fresh start away from California. He now has that with the Colts.
Bears signing DT Grady Jarrett
The deal: Three years, $43.5 million ($28.5 million guaranteed)
Grade: D
The Bears know they're getting the 2025 (and 2026) version of Jarrett and not, like, 2020 Jarrett, right? He has long been a favorite player of mine, and from 2018 to 2020 or so, he was very much in the mix for the best DT not named Aaron Donald. But Jarrett has aged since then, and those times are long gone.
At his peak, Jarrett recorded a 21% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (in 2019). That number has dropped every season since to the point where he was at just 9% in 2024. That's still technically average for a defensive tackle, though that number includes run-stopping specialists -- which isn't Jarrett. So $14.5 million per year for him would be an overpay.
And what kicks this contract into "D-grade" territory is the $28.5 million fully guaranteed. It's not just Jarrett's age-32 season the Bears are signing; this deal ensures they're signed up for his age-33 season, too.
Raiders re-sign Edge Malcolm Koonce
The deal: One year, $12 million
Grade: A-
I'm surprised. I thought Koonce was going to be a hot name this offseason and land a pretty big deal based on his upside. But this could be injury related.
Koonce missed the entire 2024 season with a knee injury. But Koonce showed promise in 2023, with 8.0 sacks and a 17% pass rush win rate at edge (22nd best out of 50 qualifiers) in his first season as a starter. Koonce started 11 games that season after moving past first-round rookie Tyree Wilson on the depth chart.
Now, Koonce has a one-year, prove-it deal. And it's good for the Raiders that the rest of the league didn't have much interest. At best they get an ascending edge rusher on a bargain deal. At worst, it's only a $12 million commitment.
Packers to sign G Aaron Banks
The deal: Four years, $77 million
Grade: C-
Whew, that's a lot of money for Banks.
Listen, I'm the first to tell you that offensive line is important. But this is high-end money for a player who hasn't proved to be that yet. Banks is coming off his best season by our numbers, but even with that context, his pass block win rate (92%) ranked 38th out of 64 guards and his run block win rate (69%) ranked 46th.
By signing Banks, the Packers can move either Elgton Jenkins or Sean Ryan to center to potentially replace unrestricted free agent Josh Myers.
When adjusting for cap inflation, Banks' deal is on par with the extension All-Pro Quinn Meinerz signed with the Broncos this past summer and Jonah Jackson's free agent deal with the Rams last year. Jackson might be a reasonable comp, but that certainly looks like an overpay in retrospect.
The saving grace here could be structure, as we don't have the guaranteed money figures yet.
Eagles, Browns to swap backup QBs
Eagles get: QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, 2025 fifth-round pick
Browns get: QB Kenny Pickett
Eagles trade: A
Browns trade: D
A year ago, the Eagles traded for Pickett by giving a package that, by our draft pick calculations, was roughly equivalent to a borderline fifth- or sixth-round pick. Forty-three pass attempts later and now the Browns have given up a fifth-round selection plus Thompson-Robinson for a more expensive year of Pickett (he'll cost them $2.6 million in cash this year as opposed to a little under for $2 million for the Eagles last year). I don't see the logic.
The Browns need a quarterback, don't get me wrong. I just don't believe that the team -- which is highly leveraged against the cap and needs all the draft capital it can muster -- ought to be burning picks on someone like Pickett. The former first-rounder -- who ranked 20th in QBR his rookie season but dropped to 27th in 2023 before being discarded by the Steelers -- has plenty of equivalents who could surely be acquired without giving up a fifth-round pick (and Thompson-Robinson).
Cleveland's focus at quarterback surely is on the draft, and rightfully so. But the Browns probably could have done just as well, and maybe better (Kirk Cousins?!) without having to make this deal.
Cardinals to sign Edge Josh Sweat
The deal: Four years, $76.4 million ($41 million guaranteed)
Grade: B
The Cardinals entered the offseason with a massive need for an edge rusher who can get after the quarterback and plenty of cap space to work with. Sweat was the best available at the position, so this was always a potential match.
Sweat is coming off what was, in some ways, a down season for him. From 2021 to 2023, Sweat recorded a well-above-average 21% pass rush win rate at edge and recorded 27.5 sacks in that span, postseason included. In 2024, his win rate at edge dropped to 11%, though he had 10.5 sacks, including the postseason.
He had a huge Super Bowl (2.5 sacks) and could have been the Super Bowl MVP. And part of what he showed in the Super Bowl -- pushing the pocket to put Patrick Mahomes under duress (as opposed to going around a blocker) -- doesn't always show up perfectly in the win rates. Sweat's pass rush get-off (time to cross the line of scrimmage) was much slower this season, slowing from 0.73 seconds in 2023 to 0.85 seconds, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That might not sound like a big change, but it is.
Because of the numbers above, I was prepared to be somewhat critical of a Sweat signing. But the edge market has been much cheaper than I anticipated, and this isn't that much money when we compare it to past deals. After adjusting for cap inflation, Smith's $19.1 million APY value is roughly equivalent to Frank Clark's deal with the Chiefs in 2022 or Romeo Okwara's contract with the Lions in 2021. That seems fine, and there's some upside for the Cardinals. If he goes back to winning at the level he did prior to 2024 -- or keeps playing like he did in the Super Bowl -- then this signing is a bargain.
Commanders trade for OT Tunsil
Commanders get: OT Laremy Tunsil, 2025 fourth-round pick
Texans get: 2025 third-round pick, 2025 seventh-round pick, 2026 second-round pick, 2026 fourth-round pick
Commanders grade: B- (would drop if he signs a new contract)
Texans grade: B
The Commanders are not messing around with quarterback Jayden Daniels' rookie contract window. Apparently not satisfied with Brandon Coleman as their left tackle, the Commanders swung for one of the league's most established tackles in Tunsil.
Tunsil is coming off a season with a 93% pass block win rate (10th best) and a 75% run block win rate (39th). He also led the entire NFL in penalties regardless of position with 19. When doing research for my 100-player MVP story, I got more positive feedback from folks in the league on Tunsil than those numbers would suggest, and I ranked him as the 72nd most valuable player in 2024. Tunsil is consistent, with a 92% or 93% pass block win rate in each of the last three seasons over 48 regular-season games.
The appeal for the Commanders is obvious, as Tunsil makes their offensive line better. By our numbers, Coleman was very solid for a third-round rookie, with above average pass and run block win rates. Tunsil should raise the floor, though.
Does he raise it enough? Maybe? But I'm not totally convinced because this is a significant package going back to Houston. According to our draft pick calculations, a mid-second-round pick and a mid-third-round pick are worth approximately the same as one mid-first-round pick when added together. This is worth a shade less than that because the 2025 third-round selection is late in the round but still, this is serious trade compensation.
Picks can seem abstract, but they represent surplus value that teams have to be careful not to squander. On the flip side, there's an argument teams flush with cap space like Washington must make trades like this in order to get their money invested in good players.
The other piece of good news for Washington is that Tunsil's contract is a value for the Commanders if they leave it alone. He is currently slated to cost them $21.35 million over each of the next two years. That's only a shade more per year than what Dan Moore Jr. just got from the Titans -- and Tunsil is better than Moore. If the Commanders sign Tunsil to a new deal, I would drop their grade, as the value of what they received would be reduced. Tunsil will turn 31 before the season starts, but tackles do tend to last much longer than other positions.
As for Houston, this is a tough pill to swallow because Tunsil was the strength of an otherwise weak offensive line. The interior of the offensive line struggled to protect C.J. Stroud and the running game lacked consistency. So, the timing of this is odd.
However, this is solid return for Tunsil. If one took the numbers I mentioned above, without the qualitative adjustment, getting a second- and third-round pick for him would be pretty good.
But those premium picks have significant surplus value. And I think it's possible that that surplus value exceeds the value of Tunsil's contract. The timing is rough considering the state of the offensive line and the fact that Houston is also in a rookie quarterback window. But I don't hate it.
Patriots to sign DT Milton Williams
The deal: Four years, $104 million ($63 million guaranteed)
Grade: C
Everyone -- myself included -- spent the 2024 season saying, "Milton Williams is underrated!" He is underrated no longer.
In his breakout 2024 season, Williams recorded 5.0 sacks and a 14% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, sixth best at the position in the regular season. He then added 2.0 sacks in the Super Bowl as the cherry on top.
There are some causes for concern, though, when handing out $26 million per year. The first is that he's coming off his best-ever season. I don't have a huge issue with this, as his pass rush win rate has improved every season and he's at the point of his career where a breakout could occur. But he also hasn't been a full-time player, playing only 47% of possible snaps this past season.
He was also on a defensive line with Jalen Carter, Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith Jr., meaning there were plenty of clear pass-rushing opportunities and his high-quality teammates could have helped set up Williams for success. Williams had a 50% double-team rate while playing defensive tackle, which ranked fourth-lowest among qualifiers at the position.
Williams' $26 million per year puts him in the same category as Javon Hargrave's contract with the 49ers in 2023, and Derrick Brown and DeForest Buckner's contracts with the Titans and Colts in 2024, after adjusting for cap inflation. That's a bit of an overpay.
Granted, New England had money to spend, and it has to spend it in hopes of upgrading its roster during Drake Maye's rookie contract window. But this deal is a little rich.
Seahawks to sign QB Sam Darnold
The deal: Three years, $100.5 million ($55 million guaranteed)
Grade: B-
Just days after jettisoning Smith -- who went from Jets bust to their reclamation-project QB -- the Seahawks have signed another in Darnold. And they didn't have to invest too much to get him, either.
The optimistic view is that the Seahawks landed Darnold for less than the Buccaneers paid to sign Baker Mayfield and quite a bit less than the Saints paid to sign Derek Carr for in 2023 in terms of per-year averages after adjusting for cap inflation. The pessimistic view is that this could pretty easily be a one-year, $55 million deal (we haven't seen the exact structure of the deal yet), which would be notable if his play goes south in 2025. That $55 million guarantee is a lot less than, say, Daniel Jones received with the Giants two years ago, and the contract is cheaper overall than I was expecting.
Read more here on this huge quarterback trade, as we break it down from all angles and size up who won the deal.
Jets to sign QB Justin Fields
The deal: Two years, $40 million ($30 million guaranteed)
Grade: B
Heading into free agency, Fields was the quarterback that I was most intrigued by because of his untapped potential. If I'm a team with a quarterback vacancy, that's the type of player I want.
I've been a Fields skeptic in the past. From 2021 to 2023, Fields ranked 31st, 15th and 23rd in QBR, respectively. In limited time with the Steelers last season, Fields recorded a 50.8 QBR that would have ranked 23rd had he qualified -- one spot behind teammate Russell Wilson.
There have been signs of improvement, though. Fields has been infamously poor at sack avoidance, but his sack rate has steadily crept down from 10.3% and 12.5% in his first two seasons to 9.6% in 2023 and 8.3% in 2024. Similarly, his accuracy has also improved. After posting a minus-4% completion percentage over expectation in his first two years, that number improved to plus-1% in the past two seasons.
Of course, not being able to take the starting job from Wilson is a red flag, as is the fact that he was available for only a sixth-round pick via trade last year.
The price is more than I thought it would be, which is why the grade isn't higher. The most likely result is that the Jets burn $30 million for one season of Fields. But even if that scenario comes to pass, I still make this move if I'm the Jets, because it means 2025 has quarterback upside without them having to force a draft pick on a QB to get it.
Lions to sign CB D.J. Reed
The deal: Three years, $48 million
Grade: A
Almost every time I write about cornerbacks, I'm compelled to include a note about how volatile players at the position are. But the 28-year-old Reed is an exception, a consistent player year in and year out and, in my view, a long underrated player. I liked it when the Jets signed him three years ago, and I like this signing by Detroit.
Here are Reed's yards allowed per coverage snap from 2022 to 2024: 0.6, 1.0 and 0.8, respectively. That's three straight seasons better than average (1.1) in the category relative to other outside corners. Dating to his time in Seattle, Reed has been better than average in five consecutive seasons.
He also averaged a 13% target rate in his three seasons in New York, slightly lower than average despite playing opposite Sauce Gardner!
Those are strong numbers and exactly what the Lions need. I'd rather have Reed than Carlton Davis III, and the Lions got him for cheaper than what the Patriots paid Davis.
Patriots to sign CB Carlton Davis III
The deal: Three years, $60 million ($34.5 million fully guaranteed)
Grade: C+
If it all works out, the Patriots could have one heck of a cornerback pairing with Davis now opposite ascending star Christian Gonzalez. That's surely the vision the Patriots had in mind in handing Davis a $20 million per year contract.
Davis is certainly considered a good corner, but I'm not sure his stats quite back up that price tag. At minimum, I'd have chosen D.J. Reed or Charvarius Ward among the available free agent corners.
Davis allowed 1.4 yards per coverage snap last season in Detroit, which is higher than average for an outside corner (1.1), per NFL Next Gen Stats. While he did have minus-11 EPA when targeted, those on-ball numbers have virtually no stability from year to year. And while all cornerback metrics have year-to-year volatility, Davis has allowed 1.3 yards per coverage snap over his career and he has been targeted 18-19% of the time in each of the past three seasons, which is higher than the 14% average for outside corners. Davis had one year with better-than-average numbers (0.8 yards per coverage snap, 14% target rate) but that was in 2021.
Nearest defender numbers are far from perfect, and Davis was part of a good defense in Detroit last season, but that isn't an ideal track record in coverage when handing out $20 million per year.
Titans to sign OT Dan Moore Jr.
The deal: Four years, $82 million ($50 million guaranteed)
Grade: A
We don't know who will play quarterback for the Titans in 2025, but that person will have better pass protection with Moore now on the team.
Moore is coming off a nice season in which he put up career highs in both pass block win rate (93%, 11th best out of 66 qualifiers) and run block win rate (76%, 23rd best). Offensive line can be a place where players take longer to develop, so I'm inclined to invest in Moore's improvement.
That becomes easy to do when considering who else was available on the tackle market. Cam Robinson isn't as good as Moore as a pass protector, Jaylon Moore is unproven and has worse numbers, and Jedrick Wills Jr. has several question marks attached to him. To me, Moore was the one to go with and $20.5 million per year is not top-tier tackle money at all.
Last season, Titans tackles JC Latham (88%) and Nicholas Petit-Frere (82%) ranked 40th and 64th in pass block win rate among tackles. If Latham, their first-round pick in 2023, develops the Titans could have a really nice pair of tackles, which is crucial for setting a quarterback up for success.
WR Chris Godwin re-signs with Buccaneers
The deal: Three years, $66 million ($44 million guaranteed)
Grade: A-
Not only did the Buccaneers get Chris Godwin back -- they got him back for pretty cheap.
Godwin was clearly the best wide receiver available in a wideout-thirsty market when the negotiation period started Monday. He wasn't around for long though, returning to the Buccaneers for only $22 million per year. Considering Tee Higgins isn't available, that DK Metcalf cost $30 million per year and a second-round pick and that Davante Adams cost $23 million per year, the Bucs getting Godwin back at this price is a bargain. Having a second playmaker for Baker Mayfield to target beyond Mike Evans is crucial for the health of the Tampa Bay offense.
Godwin comes with some risk, of course. He just turned 29 years old and is coming off an ankle injury that limited him to only seven games in 2024. But he's also coming off his best season since he tore his ACL at the end of the 2021 season, increasing his yards per route run from 1.8 in 2022 and 1.9 in 2023 to 2.5 in a limited sample in 2024. Godwin posted a career high 68 in ESPN's Open Score in 2024. He was worth bringing back, particularly at this price.
Patriots to sign LB Robert Spillane
The deal: Three years, $37.5 million ($20.6 million guaranteed)
Grade: B+
Mike Vrabel has his new linebacker.
Linebacker was expected to be a deep position in this free agent class, but many of the best were off the board when the negotiation period starting at noon ET on Monday. Zack Baun, Jamien Sherwood, Nick Bolton and Ernest Jones IV all re-signed with their old teams by the time the Patriots were able to agree to terms with a linebacker.
While Dre Greenlaw was arguably the highest-upside player remaining, Spillane was the most reliable given Greenlaw's injury history. Spillane's 39% run stop win rate ranked 21st among off-ball linebackers last season. He had a 43% pass rush win rate (!) and recorded 17 pass rush wins, sixth most among off-ball linebackers. And he allowed 0.6 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats, sixth among linebackers with at least 300 coverage snaps.
Spillane is a good player, though older than you think at 29. This deal is not cheap, but I think I would rather have Spillane at this price than Bolton, Sherwood or Jones at theirs.
Commanders signing DT Javon Kinlaw
The deal: Three years, $45 million ($30 million guaranteed)
Grade: C-
A year ago, I was critical of the Jets' signing of Kinlaw, but he did produce the best season of his career. He recorded 4.5 sacks in New York, along with a 10% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (15th best, slightly above average) and 35% run stop win rate (19th best, slightly below average). Both were career highs.
To me, Kinlaw -- who mostly played 3- or 4-technique for the Jets but occasionally played nose tackle -- isn't a needle-mover who justifies this level of financial commitment (especially the $30 million guaranteed!). This is particularly true for the Commanders, who already have Daron Payne and Jer'Zhan Newton.
Bengals re-signing DT B.J. Hill
The deal: Three years, $33 million ($16 million guaranteed)
Grade: C+
While their big-ticket players --Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, Trey Hendrickson -- all await new deals or trades, the Bengals have now spent a little on the periphery, signing tight end Mike Gesicki before free agency and bringing Hill back.
The 29-year-old Hill is a solid player, but his pass rush metrics dropped off last season. He had three sacks, but his pass rush win rate at defensive tackle fell to 5%. That put him 43rd out of 47 qualifying defensive tackles, but his 37% run stop win rate ranked 11th-best at the position. Our numbers have never quite liked Hill as much as his reputation. He fills a need for Cincinnati at an important position, but I would have redirected this money elsewhere.
Bears sign center Drew Dalman
The deal: Three years, $42 million ($28 million guaranteed)
Grade: B-
The Bears entered this offseason with openings at both guard positions and center. Less than an hour into free agency, all three jobs have been filled after they traded for both Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and signed Dalman.
An ankle injury limited Dalman to nine games with the Falcons last season, but his numbers were solid. His 95% pass block win rate would have ranked ninth at center had he qualified while his 67% run block win rate was a little below average. He becomes a reliable anchor in the middle of a line designed to protect quarterback Caleb Williams.
If you think Dalman is in the second tier of centers just below Creed Humphrey or what Jason Kelce was when he retired, then this is fine. If not, then Chicago paid a bit of a premium. If it were me, I wouldn't have dished out big money on all three interior spots, though this transaction is better than the Jackson trade by a mile.
Chiefs sign OT Jaylon Moore
The deal: Two years, $30 million
Grade: D+
It was obvious to anyone who watched the Super Bowl that the Chiefs needed offensive line help. And since then, they have shipped out Joe Thuney, the elite guard who was turned into a Band Aid at left tackle. Ideally, 2024 second-round pick Kingsley Suamataia would be ready to step in at left tackle, but after a rocky rookie season there was no way they could enter 2025 with him their only option protecting Patrick Mahomes' blind side.
The Chiefs are taking a risk in signing Moore. He's Trent Williams' former backup and has 12 career starts, including five last season. He's played almost exclusively left tackle. That inexperience comes at a lower price tag -- something the cap-strapped Chiefs need. Still, $15 million per year is real money and more important, he's going to get crucial playing time protecting Mahomes.
But here's the bad news -- Moore's metrics are not good. It's a somewhat limited sample, but over the course of Moore's career he has an 83% pass block win rate at tackle and was at 81% last season. That would have been the third-worst mark among tackles last season. His run block win rate (77%) would have been above average, which helps, but a left tackle's primary job on the Chiefs is pass protection.
Buccaneers signing Edge Haason Reddick
The deal: One year, $14 million, ($12 million guaranteed)
Grade: B+
The Bucs had a major need for an edge rusher who could generate pressure and decided to roll the dice on Reddick. It's an upside play, and I think it's one worth making.
Reddick is coming off a lost season with the Jets in which he held out until Oct. 20 before playing 10 games. He recorded just a single sack and managed a wildly disappointing 12% pass rush win rate -- a dramatic departure from his past.
It's fully possible we were seeing the beginning of Reddick's decline. After all, he's 30 years old, which is the wrong side of the curve for an edge rusher. Or Reddick just wasn't in the place he needed to be to produce after missing the offseason, training camp and first seven weeks of the season. The latter scenario is plenty plausible.
The good news for the Bucs? They don't have to pay that much to find out -- only $14 million. And they're the sort of team that should make this risk. They've made the playoffs all three seasons under Todd Bowles but must have some breaks go their way to make a deep run.
If Reddick gets back to the player he was -- he was a 22% PRWR player with 11.0 sacks as recently as 2023 -- he'll be an absolute bargain for the Bucs.
Look at the key figures after DeAndre Hopkins agrees to a one-year deal with the Ravens.
Chargers re-signing Edge Khalil Mack
The deal: One year, $18 million (fully guaranteed)
Grade: B+
The Chargers may have released Joey Bosa, but they're running it back with Mack. After a 17-sack season in 2023, Mack's sack production dropped in 2024 to 6.0. However, he was part of a defense that had much more success than most could have expected, ranking seventh in EPA per play. Mack hasn't been a huge win-rate player for years, but he has a long history of being able to maximize his wins. His 13% pass rush win rate at edge in 2024 was below average but also barely below the 14% number he posted the previous year. However, Mack's play last season was generally very well regarded, and he was selected to the Pro Bowl for the ninth time in his career.
At age 34, Mack isn't the player he used to be -- but it's not like the Chargers are paying him like he's the player he used to be, either. For an aging star, $18 million for one year is plenty reasonable. That puts Mack in the ballpark of Uchenna Nwosu's deal with the Seahawks in 2023, DeMarcus Lawrence's contract with the Cowboys in 2022 and Jadeveon Clowney's one-year contract with the Titans in 2020 after we adjust for cap inflation. Those comps not only feel totally fine but also make Mack's contract seem, if anything, a little light.
And the Chargers really did need to either bring back Mack and/or bring at least one edge rusher in because Tuli Tuipulotu and Bud Dupree are not a good enough tandem for a team that ought to have deep postseason aspirations. The Chargers have a ton of cap space, so Mack does not even have to be the team's only move at edge rusher.
Saints trade for DT Godchaux
Saints get: DT Davon Godchaux
Patriots get: 2026 seventh-round pick
Saints grade: D+
Patriots grade: B
The Saints just can't help themselves from spending more money, even when they absolutely can't afford it. They are in a tight salary cap situation, are not Super Bowl contenders and likely won't return to being contenders until they clear themselves out of their financial mess. Spending more money -- Godchaux is due $5 million in salary and bonuses -- on a 30-year-old nose tackle is not going to help.
Godchaux's numbers took a dip last season. He has typically had above-average ranks in run stop win rate (36% from 2021-23), but that dropped to 26% in 2024, which ranked 61st out of 67 defensive tackles. However, his 18% tackle rate (percentage of his run plays he recorded a tackle or assist) was high among nose tackles. He offers nothing as a pass rusher, with a 1% pass rush win rate last season. Again, though, the numbers are almost irrelevant. At a time when the Saints can't afford to add salary, they certainly shouldn't be adding it for an older player with no time left on his deal.
The Patriots presumably felt like they wanted to go in a different direction at nose tackle and decided to take whatever they could get for him. Perhaps their view matched run stop win rate trends, or perhaps they simply want to get younger.
Patriots signing Edge Harold Landry III
The deal: Three years, $43.5 million ($26 million guaranteed)
Grade: B+
And here comes the Patriots' money. New England has a roster filled with holes, more cap space than any other team in the league and a good quarterback in the second year of his rookie contract in Drake Maye. The time is now to spend.
In comes Landry to reunite with new coach Mike Vrabel, and the Patriots hope he brings some sacks with him. Landry has recorded 19.5 sacks over the past two years, an impressive number given he played for a Titans team that won only nine games combined over those two seasons. The Patriots, meanwhile, ranked last in the NFL with a 4.7% defensive sack rate in 2024.
Landry's win rates have just been OK in recent seasons. His 15% pass rush win rate at edge ranked almost exactly average for a starting edge rusher in 2024. That's not ideal, but at this point he has also established himself as a player who can consistently get more sacks than his win rates would suggest.
Landry, who will be 29 next season, is a shade older than the Patriots might prefer, given how much work the team has to do to turn itself around. But rebuilding franchises don't get to choose who hits the free agent market, and the reason I like the deal is because it brings production in the door when it's badly needed -- and it does so at a reasonable price. Just over $14 million per year for an stablished starting edge rusher in 2025 is a good deal, and though someone such as Malcolm Koonce is younger and offers more upside, I suspect he's also going to cost more than this.
Rams signing WR Davante Adams
The deal: Two years, $46 million ($26 million guaranteed)
Grade: A
Three years ago, the Rams were seeking a second wide receiver to play alongside Cooper Kupp and they signed veteran Allen Robinson to a three-year, $45 million deal. It didn't go great. Fast forward to 2025, and they're trying the veteran free agent route again. With Kupp now headed for an exit from Los Angeles, the Rams are turning to Adams on a two-year deal to line up opposite Puka Nacua. And this time, I think it will turn out better.
Make no mistake: Adams is on the decline. He's 32 years old, and we often underestimate the rate at which age can erode a player's ability. Maybe I'm doing it right now. But Adams' decline is coming from such a high peak and the evidence is there that he's still a very good receiver. And in my view, he is a value at the price Los Angeles paid. Even in his down 2024 season, Adams averaged 2.1 yards per route run -- and he was catching passes from Gardner Minshew (with the Raiders) and Aaron Rodgers (in a dysfunctional Jets offense). That's still pretty good.
The advanced metrics suggest a similar story. His open score was 77 last season (via ESPN's receiver scores), down from a peak of 99 in 2020 but still well above average. (Adams' catch score dropped to a disastrous 5 last season, but it is more volatile from year to year, and I'd be less worried about age affecting his hands than his shiftiness).
Now put that player in a Sean McVay offense in which he can be the No. 2 option behind an exceptional Nacua, and there's a world where this could really work out, at least for a year. It makes all the sense in the world for the Rams, running it back with quarterback Matthew Stafford for another year with great offensive playmakers and an exceptional defensive line in place. I think the $23 million per year for Adams is going to age very well over the next couple of weeks. After all, if Tutu Atwell is getting $10 million these days, you better believe Adams is worth $23 million.
Steelers trade for WR Metcalf
Steelers get: WR DK Metcalf
Seahawks get: 2025 second-round pick, late-round pick swap
Steelers grade: B
Seahawks grade: C+
By the time Metcalf was dealt Sunday night, it wasn't a surprise that his Seahawks career was over. As much as many (myself included) disagreed with the direction the team was taking, Seattle was already well on its way to dismantling itself after trading quarterback Geno Smith to the Raiders in a shocking deal Friday.
The most surprising part of the Metcalf deal wasn't that it happened or the compensation. It was the destination. The Steelers are a bit of an odd choice to get aggressive at receiver for the simple fact that they don't have a quarterback. They're not the worst spot -- the defense always has the possibility of being elite, they have another solid receiver in George Pickens, the offensive line is decent enough and coach Mike Tomlin consistently squeezes the most out of the roster. They just, again, don't have a quarterback. Not yet.
Metcalf is coming off a down season in which his yards per route run dipped to 1.9, his lowest mark since his 2019 rookie season (though not by much). He has hovered between 1.8 and 2.3 yards per route in every year of his career. I think it's a reasonable time to buy the dip. Metcalf's open score via ESPN's receiver scores dropped to 63 in 2024, his lowest since his rookie season and a small drop-off from previous years. Where he really fell off was in his catch and YAC scores (21 and 38, respectively -- both career lows). But those tend to be more variant from year to year, and the fact that Metcalf was still getting open at a decent rate last season and is only 27 years old gives me confidence going forward.
He is a strange fit with Pickens, though. Both receivers ran go routes or deep fades 19% of the time last season, each ranking in the top 11 in the category among wide receivers with at least 250 routes run. Each also ran a high rate of corners and short fades. I don't think it's necessarily bad to have two receivers who can go deep -- both Metcalf and Pickens ranked in the top 13 in air yards per target -- but there is overlap here. It shouldn't be completely out of the question that the Steelers could try to move Pickens.
Considering Metcalf's relative youth, a second-round pick feels reasonable. He agreed to a five-year, $150 million extension as part of the trade, and a deal worth $30 million per year is perfectly fine. In fact, after adjusting for cap inflation, that's a cheaper per-year average than Metcalf's last deal in 2022. The Steelers had to give up a draft pick worth significant surplus value for the right to pay Metcalf in this case, though you have to consider the lack of alternatives if they wanted to add a wide receiver. Chris Godwin -- arguably the top free agent receiver -- is older, is coming off an injury and might make almost as much as Metcalf.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, now have the most 2026 cap space of any team. Congratulations? That's not really a good spot unless the roster has a ton of stars who are about to get paid. And instead, the Seahawks have stripped their offense almost bare. I'm grading this deal for Seattle under the current circumstances -- post-Smith trade. Overall, I would have rather simply kept both (plenty doable!), but the situation is different after the Smith deal.
Check out the stats behind Seahawks WR DK Metcalf being traded to the Steelers.
Still, given his age, I'd still rather have Metcalf than what Seattle got for him. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Metcalf would have formed a great pairing for a new quarterback. But at least it's a pick worth real value. And now there should be no mistaking this for a full-blown rebuild. The next move ought to be dealing Leonard Williams; the Seahawks have come this far, so what's the point of keeping him and letting a 31-year-old defensive tackle decrease his future value on the roster? And the team ought to be playing for upside at the quarterback position, perhaps taking swings in both free agency and the draft.
We'll see where Seattle goes from here, but it does have plenty of money and assets to maneuver toward the future vision.
Browns extend Edge Myles Garrett
The deal: Four years, $160 million ($123.5 million guaranteed)
Grade: C
Garrett gave the Browns an out. Had Cleveland traded him this offseason, it would have been perceived as Garrett forcing his way out (not that NFL teams ought to consider fan base reaction when making franchise-altering decisions). The Browns are a heavily cap-leveraged team -- the only team currently over the 2026 projected salary cap -- and are without a quarterback after Deshaun Watson re-tore his Achilles. Garrett is a 29-year-old future Hall of Famer. This is the time the Browns ought to have traded him for future assets. Instead, they signed him to an extension that averages $40 million per year.
To be clear, he is worthy of that contract. I don't think I really need to list Garrett's qualifications, but over just the past three years, Garrett has:
Finished in the top five in Defensive Player of the Year voting each season, including winning the award in 2023
Led the NFL with 44.0 sacks
Finished second to only Micah Parsons in terms of most total pass rush wins (215) and pass rush win rate (26%)
I understand the Browns' temptation to give him the extension and keep him in Cleveland. And there are worlds where this works out (which virtually all involve finding a quarterback quickly). But I think the Browns would have been better off if someone else gave Garrett this deal. Every year the Browns don't find that quarterback, Garrett's value decreases. Time comes for every player, and it will also come for Garrett.
Let's consider that alternate path, especially for the analytics-friendly Browns, who feasible could have been willing to rack up draft capital here. Say they traded Garrett this offseason for a 2025 second-round pick and a 2026 first-round pick (Cleveland should want that first-round pick to be in the future, where there's uncertainty and potential upside of it being an early selection). Then say they trade down from No. 2 this April in exchange for more future draft capital. Finally, say they do it again and end up in the back of the first round. Each of those trades could have netted a 2026 first-round pick. Suddenly the Browns would be staring at four 2026 first-round picks to jump-start their rebuild, allowing them to perhaps find a quarterback and select building blocks around him at the same time.
It sounds like fantasy football, but a scenario such as this was in the cards for Cleveland this offseason. That path, to me, is more likely to lead to success than the one the Browns have chosen.
Ravens re-signing OT Ronnie Stanley
The deal: Three years, $60 million
Grade: B+
The Ravens pretty much had to bring back Stanley. They might even be fortunate it didn't cost them a couple of million more to do so.
To be clear, there's plenty of risk here. Stanley has sat out 36 games over the past five seasons because of ankle, shoulder and knee injuries. Just because he is coming off his first season of playing 17 regular-season games does not remove that risk. That being said, Stanley -- a first-team All-Pro in 2019 -- stayed healthy in 2024 and made the Pro Bowl for the first time since that 2019 season. He ranked 12th in pass block win rate (93%) and 32nd in run block win rate (75%, roughly average) among tackles.
My grade is not because I think Stanley is a home-run signing in a vacuum. It's because the Ravens are in the middle of prime Super Bowl contention and the alternative -- entering Monday without a left tackle -- would have been awfully risky. Maybe they could have landed Cam Robinson or Dan Moore Jr., but Robinson is a much worse pass blocker than Stanley, and Moore is coming off a career-best season and free agency offers no guarantees.
Considering how thin the tackle market is right now and how important it is for the Ravens to protect Lamar Jackson, they had to get this deal done -- even with all the injury risk.
Raiders trade for QB Smith
Raiders get: QB Geno Smith
Seahawks get: 2025 third-round pick
Raiders grade: B (contingent on Smith's next contract)
Seahawks grade: C+
Las Vegas found its next quarterback in a very unexpected place. Pete Carroll, Tom Brady and the Raiders -- after missing out on Matthew Stafford, who decided to return to the Rams -- elected to forego a free agent market filled with question marks and make a deal for Smith, Carroll's old quarterback.
In a vacuum, getting Smith on his current contract for a third-round pick is easily worth it. But how high does he actually elevate Las Vegas? And what does this move do for Seattle, who is no closer to finding its QB of the future? Read more here on this huge quarterback trade, as we break it down from all angles and size up who won the deal.
Eagles re-signing LB Zack Baun
The deal: Three years, $51 million ($34 million guaranteed)
Grade: A
The Eagles signing Baun to a one-year, $1.6 million deal, converting him to off-ball linebacker and then getting a near-Defensive Player of the Year performance is one of the best transactions and development coaching jobs you'll see in the NFL. Now it's time for the Eagles to pay market rate (or in this case, perhaps less) for Baun. And he's worth it.
Despite only one interception, Baun allowed negative-26 EPA as the nearest defender in 2024, the best mark for a linebacker by a mile per NFL Next Gen Stats (next best was negative-11). He did that while allowing 0.6 yards per coverage snap, sixth best among linebackers. He ranked ninth in run stop win rate among off-ball linebackers with at least 10 starts (41%). And he forced five fumbles and recorded 3.5 sacks. He even recorded another forced fumble and two more picks -- including one in the Super Bowl -- in the playoffs. And he finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
So yes, heckuva year. The Eagles, who ranked second in EPA per play on defense this season, wanting to bring him back makes all the sense in the world.
On this grade, I get to cheat a little because I'm writing it a few days after the deal was signed. And in that span, more linebacker re-signings have come in -- and they are a little pricey. If Nick Bolton and Jamien Sherwood are getting $15 million per year, then giving Baun $17 million per year after the season he just had is a slam dunk.
And $17 million per year isn't a top-of-market deal. A reasonable comparison could be Tremaine Edmunds in 2023, who was coming off a breakout season (but not as good as Baun's 2024) and got what would be the equivalent of $22.4 million per year from the Bears. Not to mention Roquan Smith's deal in 2023, Fred Warner's in 2021 or Shaquille Leonard's in 2021, which would equate in the current salary cap to $24.8, $29.1 and $30.1 million deals annually. Baun at $17 million per year is a great price.
Texans trade for WR Kirk
Texans get: WR Christian Kirk
Jaguars get: 2026 seventh-round pick
Texans' grade: A-
Jaguars' grade: C+
Kirk was once the poster child for (what we thought was) NFL free agency overpay. Fast-forward a few years to Tutu Atwell landing a one-year, $10 million deal with the Rams, and suddenly Kirk's scheduled $16.5 million in cash -- which was apparently too rich for the Jaguars since they were preparing to release him -- looks like kind of a bargain?
Kirk's value is depressed because of injuries -- including a collarbone injury that cut his 2024 season short -- which have limited him to 19 games over the past two seasons. But his per-route numbers are solid. Over the past two seasons, he's averaging 2.1 yards per route run and 2.4 against man, which ranks 23rd and 19th, respectively, among wide receivers with at least 500 routes run in that span. Not bad! Over the past two years combined he has a 65 open score in our receiver tracking metrics (good), though poor catch and YAC scores (29 each).
Louis Riddick explains how Deebo Samuel will impact Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders' offense.
Houston had a real need at wide receiver with Stefon Diggs becoming a free agent and Tank Dell recovering from a serious knee injury that just required another surgery. Kirk played mostly in the slot in Jacksonville, but that's just fine working alongside Nico Collins (Diggs played from the slot 43% of the time last season). Meanwhile, the Jaguars must hang on to Gabe Davis and his $11.5 million in guaranteed money this season, but he's a downgrade as a WR2 behind Brian Thomas Jr.
It might seem odd to give praise to Houston, as it dealt a pick for a player who was about to be cut. But given the number of teams that need or at least could use a wide receiver, and how much cap space NFL teams have, in a couple of weeks I think we might look back at Kirk's contract as bit of a bargain that the Texans were smart to scoop up.
Raiders signing G Alex Cappa
The deal: Two years, $11 million
Grade: C
The Raiders jumped in early to make a move in what could be a tight guard market, signing Cappa ahead of free agency after he was released by the Bengals on Monday.
Cappa had an exceptionally poor 2024 season, ranking last among 64 qualifying guards in pass block win rate (85%) and 58th in run block win rate (65%). Though Cappa's numbers aren't usually that bad, he has never recorded better than a 92% pass block win rate in a season -- the benchmark for an average starting guard. Cappa entered the league as a third-round pick in 2018 by the Buccaneers when new Raiders GM John Spytek was there.
The good news for Las Vegas is that Cappa doesn't necessarily have to start. Jackson Powers-Johnson, Dylan Parham and Jordan Meredith return to the Raiders after having played guard this past season (Powers-Johnson can also play center, as he did at times in 2024). In exchange for $5.5 million per year, the Raiders gain veteran depth at guard, but Cappa's track record is rough.
Bears trade for G Thuney
Bears get: G Joe Thuney
Chiefs get: 2026 fourth-round pick
Bears grade: B
Chiefs grade: B+
It takes a willingness to be bold for the Chiefs -- who just lost the Super Bowl in part because they weren't able to adequately protect Patrick Mahomes -- to trade one of their best offensive linemen. But you know what? I think it makes sense!
In order to make the Chiefs jigsaw puzzle work, they were going to have to make some tough choices somewhere. In Thuney, they had an elite guard, but he is also a 32-year-old player with only one year left on his deal. To get a real asset in exchange for him now is good business, even if it stings. And that's especially true because the Chiefs -- who were $14 million over the cap on Wednesday morning before the deal, per Roster Management System -- needed to find cap savings somewhere. Dealing Thuney will free up $16 million in 2025 cap space. Presumably the Chiefs will work hard to sign franchise-tagged Trey Smith to a long-term deal. Smith is a very good guard who may not be quite at Thuney's caliber but is crucially only 25 years old.
Let's talk about whom the Bears are getting, because there's no question that Thuney is still an exceptional player. He has been a first-team All-Pro in each of the past two years (and was second-team the year before that) and the advanced numbers back up those awards. Thuney has led the league in pass block win rate at guard in every season since 2021. That's a nice player for Caleb Williams to have in front of him. The Bears, clearly, wanted to make it a priority to fill the gaps in the middle of their offensive line and protect Williams. While I am skeptical that anything other than Williams was the main culprit for his league-leading 68 sacks last season, good pass protection certainly goes a long way toward overall offensive success (not just sack avoidance), and that's something that Ben Johnson knows all too well.
I like today's deal much better for Chicago than yesterday's move for Jonah Jackson. Consider that the Bears are currently slated to pay Thuney -- maybe the best guard in football -- a little less than Jackson, who was benched last season. Yes, they're giving up more in draft capital, but still.
That draft capital is pretty significant ... a fourth-round pick for what is currently a one-year rental of Thuney. To be fair, Thuney's current cost is also a bit of a value, though. He'll cost Chicago $16 million this season while the top non-tag guard average is Landon Dickerson at $21 million per year. Then again, there's a good chance the Bears might want to make this a multiyear arrangement. And given the position he plays and the level he has played it, that's not wild. Offensive linemen can still have success well into their 30s.
Given Chicago's plethora of cap space, its need to develop Williams and the fact that Thuney is an elite player, I can get on board with this move.
Bears trade for G Jackson
Bears get: G Jonah Jackson
Rams get: 2025 sixth-round pick
Bears grade: D
Rams grade: A
The Bears are letting the Rams off the hook -- and paying a late-round pick to do it.
After signing a three-year, $51 million free agent deal with Los Angeles last offseason, 2024 went about as poorly as possible for Jackson. The guard landed on IR after Week 2, returned to play one game in Week 10 and then was promptly benched (he played again in Week 18 when the Rams rested starters).
Only $8.5 million of the $17.5 million owed to Jackson in 2025 is guaranteed, which -- in my view -- made him a candidate to be released or dealt on a restructured deal with the Rams eating some of the money (or attaching a draft pick). Instead, the Rams not only got Jackson's guaranteed money off their books, but they received a pick to do it!
At a different price, Jackson would have been a player I'd want to bet on. He had solid seasons in 2021 and 2022 with the Lions, with average to above-average run and pass block win rates in each of those seasons. He was worse in 2023, with his run block win rate dropping to a below-average 67%. But he still got paid in a hot guard market, then had his lost year in Los Angeles. Scheme change might have played a factor -- the Rams ran the heaviest duo scheme of any team in 2024, and Jackson came from the outside-zone heavy Lions.
But no matter the reason, Jackson's value is surely lower today than it was a year ago. The Rams paid just $16.5 million in cash for one season of Jackson in 2024. Now the Bears are going to pay a sixth-round pick and $17.5 million in cash for him in 2025?
The Bears are probably feeling somewhat desperate about their offensive line given that both of their starting guards and starting center from last season are hitting free agency. And quarterback Caleb Williams was sacked a league-high 68 times in 2024 (though I'd contend that figure is more on Williams than the offensive line). Plus, Jackson was successful in Detroit under new Bears head coach Ben Johnson.
But I still don't see how it makes sense for Chicago to overpay for someone else's mistake at this point of the offseason. The Bears forgot the "low" part of buying low on a contract.
Commanders trade for WR Samuel
Commanders get: WR Deebo Samuel Sr.
49ers get: 2025 fifth-round pick
Commanders grade: B
49ers grade: B+
Samuel is a unique player. At his peak, his after-the-catch skills were unparalleled. Over the past four seasons, Samuel has posted a league-high 87 YAC score -- 21 points higher than every other receiver in ESPN's receiver scores (Ja'Marr Chase is next best at 66). His exceptional yards-after-catch skills have masked his subpar abilities in other traditional receiver facets. (His open and catch scores have been below average in each of the past four seasons and declined in that span.)
Samuel's production has declined in recent years. And after posting an absurd 1,405 receiving yards on 3.1 yards per route run (along with 365 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns) in 2021, he hasn't approached those numbers. He's coming off a poor 2024 in which he recorded only 670 receiving yards on 1.8 yards per route run. It's not unreasonable to wonder if we will see Samuel, 29, come close to his peak again.
Considering San Francisco's plethora of wide receivers and the $17.6 million cap hit coming due, it was understandable that the team was looking to move on from Samuel, who had requested a trade. And Washington was a logical candidate to acquire him. It's time for the Commanders, flush with cap space and in Year 2 of the Jayden Daniels era, to push their chips into the middle of the table. And receiver is a clear position of need behind Terry McLaurin, particularly with late-season breakout Dyami Brown being an impending free agent.
Louis Riddick and Dan Orlovsky break down how Laremy Tunsil's move to the Commanders positively impacts Jayden Daniels.
Samuel appears to be a nice fit in Washington's offense; he provides another threat close to the line of scrimmage and can complement Daniels' running prowess. Washington's 4.6 expected YAC per reception last season wasn't amazing, but it was better than the 49ers' 4.3 (sixth worst). And 11% of Washington's wide receiver targets came on screens (third highest). You'd expect more next season with Samuel surely receiving many.
On the other hand, if the Commanders enter the season with Samuel as their No. 2 wide receiver, that will be a weakness -- and I will think less of this deal. I'll grade it under the assumption that the Commanders jumped at this opportunity with the intention to add another solid receiver later in the offseason (either in free agency or early in the draft). Many potential veterans could be available via trade or free agency, such as Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Davante Adams (assuming he's cut), Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs. But some of those players are far from guaranteed to hit the market and none is perfect.
That leads to a big question: Isn't $17.6 million and a fifth-round pick for one year of a No. 3 wide receiver a lot to pay? You bet. But the circumstances dictate the Commanders' aggression to add playmakers, and Samuel provides offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury the ability to add wrinkles to what was already a successful offense in 2024.
From San Francisco's perspective, the team has invested heavily in Brandon Aiyuk and Ricky Pearsall (and maybe could spend more on Jauan Jennings). The 49ers got a nice return for Samuel, whom -- absent a trade partner -- they might have released.