The big issue in analyzing the Seattle Seahawks' signing of Matt Flynn to a three-year, $26 million contract is to find out exactly how much he can improve the Hawks' offense.
Some may think his addition will be a huge upgrade because of how well Flynn played against Detroit in Week 17 last year, but as was noted in a recent Insider article, his performance in that game has to be taken with more than a grain of salt.
Quoting the article:
- "As remarkable as his record-setting numbers in that game were, it's just as important to note that Flynn went 13-for-17 for 258 yards and four touchdowns on passes thrown at Alphonso Smith, Chris Harris and Chris Houston.
- "Context matters. Smith is so bad in coverage that Denver gave up on him after only one season, despite him being their top second-round pick in the 2009 NFL draft. Harris' history is no better, as his mediocre skills are a big part of why the Lions were his third NFL team in three years. While Houston has a much stronger metric history than those two, he was slowed by an injury that didn't show up until a few days before the Green Bay game.
- "In other words, the correct way to view Flynn's record-setting game is to say that it proves he can post dominant numbers if he is surrounded by very talented pass-catchers and faces a weak and injury-riddled secondary at home."
Grading Flynn on this performance alone might be akin to grading Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle's starting quarterback for most of the 2011 season, by his 13-for-16 for 190 yards and one touchdown performance against the Eagles in Week 13. Those numbers are great but they represent only one game.
The only other sampling at the NFL level we have of Flynn is the two-game stint he played during the 2010 season when Aaron Rodgers was hurt.
Flynn's overall numbers in those games were so-so: 39-for-63 for 428 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. That equates to an 84.6 passer rating, or slightly above the 82.2 league average for that season (according to pro-football-reference.com).
But check out Flynn's metrics by route depth in those contests:
The yards per attempt (YPA) totals are mediocre or worse at every depth level and the 9.0 vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) is especially poor.
Even more disturbing is the 4.5 percent bad decision rate (BDR). BDR measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover such as a dropped interception.
A BDR of 3 percent is considered to be unacceptable -- and Flynn was 50 percent higher than that in these contests.
Despite the small sample size, those numbers give some perspective as to where Flynn could end up. But how do Flynn's numbers compare with the totals posted by Jackson last season?
Jackson tallied a 9.3 VYPA and had a 3.8 percent BDR. If Flynn's 2010 totals are an indication of what he will bring to the table, he will not be an upgrade over Jackson.
The counterargument would be that Jackson's 2011 numbers are based on a much larger sample size and therefore are a much more likely indicator of his performance ceiling than Flynn's 2010 campaign.
True as that is at some level, Jackson's history suggests he also has a higher ceiling than what he displayed last year. For example, back in 2007, Jackson had a 2.3 percent BDR and posted quality totals in a variety of vertical sub-metrics.
This isn't to say that the Seahawks should stick with Jackson as their starter, but rather to note that there are multiple reasons to think the Seahawks could get a VYPA in the low-to-mid 10-yard range and a BDR of less than 3 percent with Jackson under center.
If Flynn merely equals those numbers, as his history suggests is quite possible, this will not be an upgrade for Seattle. He will have to top those numbers in order for this to have been money well spent by the Seahawks' front office.