Even amid an NFL season that has been defined on offense by Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry dominating at running back, quarterback is still king. The Commanders, Vikings and Broncos are likely to make the postseason after making offseason upgrades at the league's most important position. Changes at quarterback can turn bad teams around quicker than anybody expects and help mold flawed teams into Super Bowl contenders.
And so, right around this time of year, the quarterback carousel begins to spin. There's turnover already happening in the 32 starting jobs because of injuries and subpar play, of course, but organizations both inside and outside the playoff picture are thinking about their Week 1 starters for 2025. Some changes to come are obvious, but others might depend on what the scouting department sees in next year's rookie class or whether certain veterans make it to the open market.
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Let's take a closer look at the teams that might be giving serious thought to making a change under center for Week 1 of the 2025 season. Most of these teams are out of the playoff picture, unsurprisingly, but some are locks to see their current quarterbacks on the field in January. And while a few are guaranteed to make changes, others still have tape to evaluate on their current guys between now and the end of the campaign.
The latter group might be the more interesting of the two, so I'm going to start with them (in no order). And it seems obvious to begin with a guy who might have made himself a lot of money Sunday. Sam Darnold's future might not be with the Vikings, but if he can string together a few more games like the one we saw against the Falcons, could Minnesota be facing a surprisingly difficult decision about its starter next season?
Jump to a team with QB questions:
Browns | Falcons | Giants
Jets | Panthers | Raiders
Steelers | Titans | Vikings
Teams that might make a QB change
Minnesota Vikings
What happened in Week 14: Sam Darnold went 22-of-28 for 347 yards with five touchdowns in a 42-21 victory over the Falcons.
You could forgive the Vikings for showing off in front of an ex. As Kirk Cousins struggled through another game with no passing touchdowns and multiple interceptions, the guy general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah signed as part of his plan to replace the longtime starter was showing off. Facing an Atlanta pass defense that has shown more pass-rush bite in recent weeks, Darnold had what was surely his best game as a pro, averaging more than 12 yards per attempt and throwing for five touchdown passes, both for the first time in his career.
With a 47-yard pass interference call added to the mix, Darnold approached 400 passing yards on the day. Outside of taking four sacks, he was nearly flawless. He averaged 0.25 expected points added (EPA) per dropback Sunday, both a career best, and it was the first game from his Vikings run to make it into his top 10. His performance against the Bears two weeks ago, when he went 22-of-34 for 330 yards with two touchdowns, ranks 13th. The only quarterback with a better QBR over the past three weeks than Darnold is division rival Jordan Love.
The full range of Good Sam moments was on display. Darnold's arm strength has never been in question, and despite being hit during a pass attempt on a play-action shot from midfield, he still got enough on a throw to find Jordan Addison more than 36 yards downfield before the second-year wideout did the rest. Although Justin Jefferson laying a cornerback to sleep downfield was delightful, Darnold's scramble to escape two rushers before hitting an open Jefferson on a 52-yard touchdown pass was equally as impressive and reminiscent of some of the spectacular moments with the Jets that created Darnold Hive in the first place:
DARNOLD JETTAS 52-YARD TD 🚨
— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2024
📺: #ATLvsMIN on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/ZywUjIuoD4
It's simply reflecting reality to suggest Darnold is also getting help from his offense. Addison had a spectacular day, adjusting to underthrown balls and making one-handed catches. Jefferson did an impressive job to bring in a low throw. Aaron Jones had his best game in recent weeks, both holding onto the ball and turning 13 carries into 73 yards and a late touchdown. Darnold was 7-of-8 for 119 yards and a touchdown off play-action.
The full gamut of coach Kevin O'Connell's tricks to both create space for Jefferson and use the gravity of his star receiver to create space for everyone else was also on display. On Jefferson's first touchdown, O'Connell used late motion from Jefferson out of the slot to guarantee outside leverage from the cornerback and then ran Jefferson through a couple of picks to create a throwing lane for Darnold. Later, he motioned Jefferson into the slot to draw attention and create a one-on-one with favorable leverage for Addison's out-breaking route, with Darnold hitting Addison for the second of his three touchdowns.
Two things can be true: O'Connell and the playmakers make life easier for Darnold, and Darnold is also playing extremely effective football in the context of this scheme. And while he takes sacks (8.9%) and throws interceptions (2.6%) at rates that aren't going to grade out very well by most metrics, Darnold also has had more great stretches this season than I would have expected. The 21-13 win over the Colts, when he was 28-of-34 for 290 yards with three touchdowns, two interceptions and a fumble, might go down as the quintessential Darnold performance during his time in a Minnesota uniform.
Is that time coming to an end? Logically, you have to think so. The Vikings are 11-2 and a lock to make it into the playoffs, but they appear to have a clear path for their future. After signing Darnold to a one-year, $10 million deal to serve as a hedge against missing out on a quarterback in the draft and as a potential bridge quarterback if their guy wasn't ready, they used a first-round pick on J.J. McCarthy, only for the rookie to suffer a season-ending knee injury during the preseason. Darnold has more than lived up to his price tag since.
The Vikings don't know what they have in McCarthy, but the one thing they can say with some confidence is that their quarterback-in-waiting will be cheaper. McCarthy will be entering Year 2 of a four-year, $21.9 million deal that will have a cap hit of just under $5 million next season. Darnold will be a free agent, and based on how he has played for O'Connell & Co., is likely to get a raise on his next deal. Teddy Bridgewater and Case Keenum have parlayed recent solid seasons into significant raises as free agents. Darnold has a better draft pedigree than either. It's not that wild to imagine him looking for something akin to the four-year, $160 million deal Daniel Jones signed with the Giants after a breakout season in 2022.
Minnesota will have more than $79 million in cap space next year per Spotrac, but the Vikings are also one of the league's oldest teams and have five starters hitting free agency this offseason, including their top three cornerbacks. And while it is thriving with Darnold under center, the defense has been the driving force for its victories, as the Vikings rank second in EPA per play on defense. They're 13th on offense. Would Adofo-Mensah prefer to stick with a low-cost solution at quarterback and invest to keep that defense playing at a high level?
My guess is yes, but this puts the Vikings in an interesting position, one that could hurt Darnold in the long run. They could let Darnold leave in free agency and pick up a third-round compensatory pick if he leaves, but that would be canceled out if the they spend enough in the open market. They could guarantee the pick by sitting out free agency or strictly signing players who were cut by their former teams, but those decisions would dramatically limit their potential player pool, which probably isn't worth a pick at the end of Round 3.
Franchise-tagging Darnold has to be a serious possibility. The Vikings wouldn't want him to sign the tag, but with Darnold hoping to land a multiyear guarantee, he probably wouldn't do so immediately. Minnesota could shop him in the hopes of landing a more significant haul, which would limit his ability to pick where he goes next. The Patriots did this in 2009 when they placed a franchise tag on Matt Cassel before sending him and Mike Vrabel to the Chiefs for the No. 34 selection in the draft.
If Darnold continues to play like this down the stretch and into the postseason, the Vikings would have to at least consider changing their plans. He ranks 16th in Total QBR, a reflection of both the highs and lows that have come with his first season. Getting trapped with a league-average starter on a market-value deal is a dangerous game for franchises, and we saw the Vikings grapple to build a Super Bowl contender around Cousins in a similar situation for six seasons in Minnesota. In a league in which teams almost always prefer the player they know to the unknown, though, would Minnesota really be willing to let Darnold walk out the door if he takes the team on a deep playoff run for the first time since 2017?
Likely 2025 starter: McCarthy
Carolina Panthers
What happened in Week 14: Bryce Young went 19-of-34 for 191 yards with a touchdown and an interception in a 22-16 loss to the Eagles.
What felt preordained after a dramatic benching in September doesn't feel quite as guaranteed now. When the Panthers took the 2023 first overall pick out of the lineup after an 0-2 start, it felt like coach Dave Canales and general manager Dan Morgan were signaling the end of the Young era in Carolina after just 18 starts. Nothing about his play had suggested he was capable of meeting the Panthers' expectations when they traded up to grab him, and he looked overwhelmed and overmatched.
Pushed back into the lineup after Andy Dalton suffered a thumb injury, Young has reclaimed the job and looked like a different passer. While he still might not yet be the player the Panthers were hoping would transform the franchise when they dealt away multiple first-rounders, the player we've seen over the past six weeks looks much more like an NFL quarterback than the passer who looked lost between 2023 and the beginning of 2024.
Facing an Eagles defense Sunday that had ranked second in the league in Total QBR allowed since Week 5, Young was going to be put to the test. And while his numbers weren't otherworldly, he answered the challenge. Spending much of the day running for his life, he battled throughout and made plays in adverse situations. After converting a third-and-11 and a fourth-and-7 late in the game, he should have completed a 97-yard drive to take the lead with a touchdown pass to Xavier Legette, only for the rookie wideout to drop the throw. Carolina's drive then fizzled out for a Philadelphia victory.
What has been so encouraging to see has been the return of Young's ability to improvise and extend plays. Quarterbacks need to be able to succeed within structure, but as an undersized quarterback without world-class arm strength, he was always going to need that ability to anticipate and create something out of nothing to thrive as a pro. Whatever internal clock or logic he has to create those moments felt lost and broken by the start to his pro career.
It has come back in recent weeks. For Young to do this on third-and-11 in the shadow of his own end zone in a two-minute drill? This is what we would expect from Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes:
Bryce Young SHEESH
— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2024
📺: #CARvsPHI on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/t2kW0MnfRx
That's also simply a difficult throw to make accurately as a passer is trying to separate from a defender at his legs. Young does an excellent job of quickly resetting his feet to make an accurate throw, something he struggled with in earlier in his run as a scrambler. His arm came in for criticism as unfit for NFL duty after the benching, but it looks much better with confidence and more consistent footwork in recent weeks. Last week, he made the golden standard throw for NFL quarterback arm strength, a deep throw from one hash to the opposite sideline. It wasn't Matthew Stafford, but he threw with enough anticipation and zip to get the ball onto David Moore's hands only for the wideout to drop the pass.
We're also seeing some promising growth from Young in terms of making the right decisions. Against the Giants in Week 10, one of Young's most successful plays probably was a mistake. Working off play-action, he got a one-on-one shot with Jalen Coker running a deep post against cornerback Deonte Banks with outside leverage and a deep safety facing the other direction. That's a clear opportunity to throw a deep shot for a potential long touchdown, but he turned down the throw, held the football, scrambled and eventually hit Legette with an inside-out throw for 23 yards. That's a perfectly fine alternative, but most coaches would want their signal-callers to take that shot downfield.
This week, in a key situation, Young made the right call. Facing quarters coverage on second down with 52 seconds left, the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner got the right look for the deep post and threw it immediately to Legette, who should have had a game-sealing touchdown. The pass might have been slightly overthrown, but it was certainly a catchable ball and should have given the Panthers an opportunity to take a last-minute lead with an extra point.
There's still some work to be done here. Young sailed a slot fade on third-and-3 to Adam Thielen against a blitz to produce a C.J. Gardner-Johnson pick. On a fourth-and-2 in the fourth quarter, he took a low snap and tried to work a slant to Legette for a first down, but his pass wasn't catchable. He was only 2-of-7 for 46 yards working outside the pocket Sunday, and given how often the Eagles made him scramble, he needed to create more in those spots to win this game.
Young's QBR since returning to the lineup ranks 15th in the league, which is a major upgrade on the player the Panthers seemed to have on their hands before the benching. It felt like a fait accompli they would move on from him after the season, but that's no longer the case. If the Morgan-led front office fell in love with a college prospect during their scouting process and think he's a better bet to be the franchise signal-caller, Carolina could make a move. Unless that's the case, though, Young is doing enough to prove he deserves another year as the starter. And this time, he should be able to make it through September without sitting.
Likely 2025 starter: Young
Cleveland Browns
What happened in Week 14: Jameis Winston went 24-of-41 for 212 yards with two touchdowns, two interceptions and a fumble in a 27-14 loss to the Steelers.
Coming off what was perhaps the quintessential Winston performance in his 497-yard, four-touchdown, two-pick-six loss to the Broncos in Week 13, perhaps it was inevitable that the 2015 first overall pick would be more muted. Facing a tough Steelers defense Sunday, he wasn't able to reach the same lofty heights we saw in the roller-coaster loss to Denver.
While Winston hit an early deep pass to Jerry Jeudy on a scramble drill for a 35-yard touchdown to give the Browns a first-quarter lead, it was his only deep completion of the day. The Steelers played split-safety looks on just under half of their dropbacks, and he went 9-of-18 for 65 yards against those shells. The Steelers basically dared him and the Browns to make their way downfield without taking any penalties or sacks, and that has been a losing formula all season. Throw in two missed field goal attempts from 38 and 43 yards by Dustin Hopkins, who is having a disastrous 2024 after an impressive 2023 campaign, and both a muffed punt and a taunting penalty from Kadarius Toney, and the Browns end up scoring 14 points on 12 possessions in yet another defeat.
Winston's most positive characteristic is that he's not Deshaun Watson. The fact that the offense has gone from being one of the worst in recent NFL history with Watson under center to 25th in EPA per play over Winston's six starts is a reflection of both his strengths and limitations. With the Browns continuing to lean heavily into the pass with him under center, he has been capable of making just about any throw, both good and bad. In the Broncos game, he followed a spectacularly precise out on third-and-11 for a key first down with a tragically misplaced out on the next snap that Ja'Quan McMillian returned for a pick-six.
At its core, Kevin Stefanski's offense has excelled with a quarterback who can thrive working the play-action and boot games to create completions and yards-after-catch opportunities. Like the McVay and Shanahan offenses, Stefanski's attack isn't quite as play-action or zone-heavy as it was five years ago, but the core concepts of moving linebackers, creating throwing lanes and manipulating coverages still apply.
Winston has been good there. He ranks ninth in the NFL in QBR since taking over on play-action, mostly because he's averaging 12.5 yards per attempt when he uses a play-fake, the second-best mark over that stretch. With the Browns unable to block the Steelers up front for most of the game, though, he was only 3-of-5 for 17 yards on play-action, which basically forced him to live in the quick game and dropback universes. Winston was 11-of-16 for just 55 yards and a pick throwing within 2.5 seconds of the snap, which isn't where he wants to be. He's at his best attacking downfield, as he did for Bruce Arians in Tampa.
Anybody would be better than Watson, and after he ended his disastrous season by tearing an Achilles in October, the Browns were essentially given an out for moving on from him as their full-time starter. (They'll still be paying him $92 million over the next two years, but that's a sunk cost and not enough to justify keeping him on the field.) We've seen this offense move the ball with Joe Flacco under center last year and, at times, with Winston this season. Those are two veteran backups with dangerous interception habits, but they're also players capable of getting hot for stretches of time. Darnold, conspicuously, fits that archetype.
Again, though, the financial and team-building considerations have to come into play here. The Browns will roll over plenty of cap space into 2025, but they're going to be paying Watson $46 million each of the next two years. They have contributors to pay on defense and need to rebuild their offense, where they'll likely be replacing starting tackles Jack Conklin and (the already-benched) Jedrick Wills Jr. and veteran running back Nick Chubb. This feels more like a situation in which Cleveland will look for a lower-cost option under center and hope to find a long-term replacement for Watson in the 2025 draft. ESPN's Football Power Index projects them to land the seventh overall pick in April.
Likely 2025 starter: A rookie quarterback selected in the 2025 draft
Pittsburgh Steelers
What happened in Week 14: Russell Wilson went 15-of-26 for 158 yards with two touchdowns in a 27-14 victory over the Browns.
Wilson seems to be the ideal fit for what the Steelers want to do on offense. Going back to his time in Tennessee, coordinator Arthur Smith was able to revitalize Ryan Tannehill's career by leaning heavily into play-action and downfield passing, taking a guy who was a salary dump in a trade and turning him into a yards-per-attempt all-star capable of challenging the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
The Steelers have aspirations of making the same trip this season, and Wilson's helping them get there. Since entering the lineup in Week 7, his Total QBR ranks 20th, but the throws he's hitting are the ones Smith & Co. want to hit. He ranks fourth in QBR on deep passes (throws traveling 20 or more yards downfield) and is hitting 2.5 of those throws per game, more than any other passer. He was only 1-of-3 on those throws Sunday, but he was 3-of-5 for 61 yards in the intermediate (range of 10 to 19 yards). He also drew a pass interference call on Greg Newsome for 16 yards and had a 26-yard fade to Mike Williams called back for offensive pass interference.
The other key factor the Steelers need to get from their starting quarterback is mistake-free football. Mike Tomlin's teams typically haven't had the offensive firepower to win shootouts, but they're entirely capable of winning games with their defense and special teams. They've been one of the league's best when they win or tie the turnover battle and one of its worst when they lose it.
Justin Fields actually was doing a spectacular job of avoiding interceptions and turnovers before he was benched, but he had fumbled six times and was taking sacks on 8.3% of his dropbacks, which was well above league average. Unless the Steelers thought Fields was capable of running a sub-1% interception rate the rest of the way, they had to be concerned he would end up making too many mistakes for the offense to thrive.
Wilson has continued to take sacks at about the same rate, but he has a track record of maintaining a low interception rate and has thrown just three picks on 213 attempts. He has also fumbled just twice in seven games. Fields did more as a runner, of course, which helps make up some of the impact of those fumbles.
QBR sees the difference between the two passers as negligible: Wilson's 56.8 QBR isn't far off from Fields's 52.1 mark across a similar number of dropbacks. In the big picture, though, I'd argue Wilson's style of play better aligns with what the Steelers want to be and how they want to play on offense. Facing a Browns defense without its best wideout in George Pickens that already plays a ton of man coverage, the Steelers might have worried Wilson would struggle to find open receivers and take too many sacks or force the ball into impossible windows. Instead, he went 6-of-13 for 95 yards and a touchdown against man and took just one sack on 12 pressures.
Given that the Steelers are paying a combined $4.5 million or so for the combination of Fields and Wilson this season, it's hard to argue they're getting anything less than great value. Average-ish quarterback play for what Dak Prescott makes once every six quarters on his new deal is a bargain. Wilson is getting paid the vast majority of what he's owed this year by the Broncos, which allowed him to sign with the Steelers for $1.2 million.
What happens over the rest of the season might determine what the quarterback room looks like in 2025. Fields is a free agent and seemingly likely to move after being shunted into the backup role after a solid start. Wilson is now 36 and will be a free agent. If he wants to try to win another Super Bowl, the Steelers would surely be the best team in position to give him a chance to do so as a starter. Would he be willing to take a relatively modest deal to stay in that starting role?
And would the Steelers be more ambitious? They have more than $56 million in projected cap space next year. If a more expensive option comes available, Pittsburgh would be in position to pursue them. Could it go after Sam Darnold? Would it consider trading for Kirk Cousins if the Falcons are willing to eat salary? Would it see Daniel Jones as a younger version of Wilson?
Wilson has done well and gone 6-1 as the starter, but I'm not sure he has done enough to keep the Steelers from looking elsewhere just yet. If the latest edition of Tomlin Magic ends with another blowout loss in the wild-card round, I suspect the Steelers will consider their options. If Wilson leads them to their first playoff win since beating Alex Smith and the Chiefs in the divisional round of the 2016 playoffs, though, Tomlin might want to run it back with the league's cheapest veteran quarterback.
Likely 2025 starter: A veteran who isn't on the current roster
Teams that will make a QB change
There's not as much to break down and debate with these teams, as it feels like their decisions have already been made. I'll cover what happened to them in Week 14 and why they've already made up their minds, starting with a team that managed to fall even further into disarray with another embarrassing loss Sunday:
New York Jets
What happened in Week 14: Aaron Rodgers went 27-of-39 for 339 yards with a touchdown pass in a 32-26 overtime loss to the Dolphins.
Well, this week, it wasn't the quarterback. In what clearly has already been a lost season for several weeks now, Rodgers delivered his first 300-yard game in nearly three full calendar years. This was something close to the version of him the Jets imagined when they built their team in his image over the past two seasons; the veteran was able to create in key situations with easy completions to Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson, who both posted 100-yard games.
Instead, it was a critical mistake from one of the many people the Jets have brought in to support Rodgers that cost them a victory. The Adams deal has generally been disappointing for the Jets, who sent a Day 2 pick to the Raiders to acquire the veteran wideout and have gotten mostly middling performance from Rodgers' beloved former teammate. In previous weeks, Adams has struggled with drops and pass interference penalties.
This time, it was a mental mistake. With the Jets in field goal range in a tie game with 1:14 to go, their offense melted down. Isaiah Davis lost 5 yards on first down on a bizarrely horizontal run call. A pressure by Calais Campbell around rookie left tackle Olu Fashanu produced a Zach Sieler sack on second down. Facing third-and-long and with the Dolphins using their final timeout after the sack, they needed to get back some of the yardage to create a manageable field goal and keep the clock moving.
They settled for one out of two. Rodgers decided to throw a back-shoulder pass to Adams, who picked up 14 yards. Crucially, though, Adams let the tackle from Kendall Fuller carry him out of bounds, stopping the clock. Had Adams fallen down in bounds, the Jets would have been able to run down the clock and kick a field goal to take the lead with 17 seconds left.
Instead, they kicked with 56 seconds remaining, which gave the Dolphins plenty of time to launch a game-tying drive. The Jets allowed a 45-yard kickoff return, and after two completions for 20 yards, Jason Sanders was able to hit a field goal to tie the game at 26. After a meaningless completion underneath by Rodgers sent the game to overtime, Miami won the coin toss and marched downfield for a touchdown, pushing New York into a tie with the Patriots for last place in the AFC East.
It has been clear for a while now that the relationship between Rodgers and the Jets has fallen apart. The expectations were too high, the sacrifices made to accommodate Rodgers too significant and the results unacceptable. He simply hasn't been good enough on a week-to-week basis, and as a now-41-year-old starter, it's hard to imagine he would be better at 42.
Would the Jets change their mind if he threw for 300 yards a few more times between now and the end of the season? That seems unlikely. They owe Rodgers $37.5 million for next year, none of which is guaranteed before the start of Week 1. They could theoretically try to force Rodgers to take a pay cut, but they need to reset their organization. Drawing a line underneath the disastrous two-year run with Rodgers in charge seems like the obvious call. With Wilson, Breece Hall and Sauce Gardner all coming due for new deals, the Jets need to spend money around their quarterback. That would seemingly point toward a cheaper option under center.
Likely 2025 starter: A rookie quarterback selected in the 2025 draft
New York Giants
What happened in Week 14: Drew Lock went 21-of-49 for 227 yards and an interception in a 14-11 loss to the Saints.
The Giants already have cut their 2024 Week 1 starter in Daniel Jones, and while there were contractual and performance reasons for moving on from the 2019 first-round pick, his backups haven't done much to convince the Giants that the problems rested with the quarterback. Tommy DeVito didn't do much in his lone start, while Lock has completed less than 52% of his passes and averaged 5.0 yards per attempt in his two starts.
Even that modest line overstates the effectiveness of the New York offense Sunday. Lock started 0-for-8, which included an intentional grounding penalty on a fourth-and-8 in Saints territory. The Giants didn't have a single drive top 30 yards through the first three quarters before finally getting things going in the fourth quarter, where Lock racked up 146 of his 227 passing yards. To his credit, he converted a third-and-9 and a fourth-and-10 in the final stanza with scrambles.
The latter set up what should have been a game-tying field goal by Graham Gano, but for the second time during Sunday's game, a field goal turned into a disaster for the Giants. Gano hit a 48-yard kick earlier in the game, only for the kick to be wiped off because of an unnecessary roughness penalty on lineman Jake Kubas. They were forced to punt. Gano's game-tying attempt was then blocked by Bryan Bresee, who leaped over the line to get a hand on a 35-yard try.
I would say the Giants are tanking, but sadly, they aren't. They're trying. This was a great performance by the New York defense, especially without star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, who is out for the season (elbow). Wideout Malik Nabers suffered a hip injury in practice Friday, but instead of sitting out, the rookie first-round pick played 69 of 74 offensive snaps. Coach Brian Daboll can point to that effort as proof that the team is playing hard for him in a lost season. Unfortunately, the other side can point to the first three quarters on offense as proof that playing hard doesn't mean playing well.
With the Giants projected by ESPN's Football Power Index to land the No. 1 pick in next year's draft, they could pursue a quarterback with their selection. I wonder if they're perhaps more likely to try to talk themselves into a veteran solution such as Sam Darnold, thinking they have enough with their pass rush and a true No. 1 wideout in Nabers to get the offense going. Ownership obviously wants to get the fans to forget about choosing Jones over Saquon Barkley. Winning is the easiest way to make that happen, and Darnold is 11-2 right now. Winning the back page shouldn't be important to the Giants, but it might be anyway.
Likely 2025 starter: A player who isn't on the current roster
Atlanta Falcons
What happened in Week 14: Kirk Cousins went 23-of-37 for 344 yards with two interceptions in a 42-21 loss to the Vikings.
What has happened with Cousins is bizarre. In the middle of November, he pieced together wildly efficient performances in back-to-back wins over the Cowboys and Buccaneers, going a combined 42-of-53 for 498 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions. Those aren't great pass defenses, but averaging more than 9.0 yards per attempt and completing nearly 80% of his throws plays well against any caliber of NFL defense. He did fumble three times across those two games, losing one, but he won NFC Player of the Week for one of those games.
Somehow, in the four games immediately following, Cousins has arguably been the league's worst quarterback. Sunday was his fourth game with no touchdown passes and at least one interception. This stretch has included a series of tough defenses, with games against the Broncos, Chargers and now the Vikings over the last three weeks, but he has posted a 44.7 QBR over the past month. That's 23 points worse than what he posted in that two-game stretch preceding this brutal run of interceptions.
A 44.7 QBR is bad, but it's hardly unprecedented for Cousins' career or the sort of performance that would necessitate an immediate benching. Switch to EPA per dropback and he ranks 29th. Bad, of course, but he's nestled in between C.J. Stroud in 28th and Jayden Daniels at 30th over that time frame, and nobody is calling for either of them to be benched. There's a disconnect between what we're seeing with our eyes and what the numbers seem to be suggesting.
In part, that's because most of this criticism surrounding Cousins is a product of the turnovers. Turnovers are bad, but they're only a handful of the throws he has made over the past month. And on all the other throws, he has mostly been fine. He's completing 62.4% of his passes and averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, which is perfectly reasonable for a veteran quarterback over a month's worth of games. If we remove the interceptions from everyone's numbers and solely measure their performance, he would ranked 22nd in QBR over that past month. Again, he's in between two stars in no danger of being benched in Patrick Mahomes and Stroud.
The interceptions count, and they've been awful, but what happens on all the other plays also matters in evaluating Cousins' aptitude for the job moving forward. When Hall of Fame quarterbacks such as Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger have fallen off late in their careers, their efficiency on a play-by-play basis declined across all pass attempts, not just interceptions. Roethlisberger averaged 6.2 yards per attempt over his final three seasons. Manning's interception rate spiked, but his completion percentage and yards per attempt both tanked dramatically. Cousins has been fine over the past month beyond that crippling touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Unsurprisingly, for a quarterback with zero touchdown passes over the past month, Cousins has been awful in the red zone: He's 4-of-16 for 21 yards with a pick and a league-worst 3.3 QBR. Has he been unlucky? A little, yes. Against the Saints, he had one pass that might have been a touchdown to Kyle Pitts knocked down at the line, while he was bumped during a throw to an open Drake London. A 33-yard pass to Darnell Mooney produced a throw to the 1-yard line, with the Falcons eventually converting for a rush touchdown. Cousins missed low and late on a throw to a wide-open Mooney against the Chargers on a pass that should have produced a touchdown, but I'd pin that more on him than bad luck.
There were more near-misses against the Vikings. A slant to London from the 2-yard line was batted down by lineman Jalen Redmond with the young wideout in position to score. Pitts wasn't able to outmuscle Theo Jackson on a throw to the sideline and then dropped a fourth-and-3 throw in garbage time that would given Cousins a pity score, but Andrew Van Ginkel also nearly jumped a screen for another one of his patented pick-sixes.
With the numbers saying what they say, I'd argue Cousins certainly doesn't look like he's even the player we saw earlier this season. There's little zip on his passes, so while he can throw deep, they're more lobs and rainbows than driven passes with real torque. He doesn't necessarily need to be that guy to succeed, but in tighter quarters near the red zone, perhaps it isn't a surprise that his throws don't have the zip to get where they need to go.
Sunday's two interceptions were more of the same. The first came on under-center play-action, a place in which Cousins was at his best in previous seasons. Here, he stepped up in the pocket at the end of his drop, began to throw, stopped himself, then tried to launch a throw from flat feet. His pass was wobbly and easily undercut by Josh Metellus. It was both a subpar pass and a throw into a window that wasn't really there. His second pick was a throw under duress against a free rusher and just simply overthrown.
Cousins' off-target rate has definitely gone up over the past month. Through the first nine games of the season, his 11.3% off-target rate was the third-best mark in football. That has jumped to 17.4%, which ranks 24th. That would seemingly hint at issues with his footwork and mechanics, neither of which should be a problem for a healthy veteran this late in his career.
Of course, while Cousins insists he's healthy, it's tough to watch him over this stretch and agree. Coming into the season after a torn Achilles last October, the Falcons hid him during the preseason and then lined him up in the pistol or shotgun for the entirety of Week 1 against the Steelers, who realized what was going on and teed off after halftime. The following week, against the Eagles, the Falcons cheekily had him under center for a stretch play handoff to begin the game, and when he led them to a comeback win with a late touchdown drive, the conversations about his health mostly faded away, even though his throws didn't look all that great at times.
Cousins has slowed down further over the past month. He has basically been hopeless against pressure, going 9-of-24 for 114 yards with two picks, eight sacks and a league-low 3.7 QBR. He's still spending a fair amount of time in the pistol, but on Sunday, he was only in that alignment for one snap and otherwise took 32 of his 36 dropbacks out of shotgun. The play-action attack he thrived with in Washington and Minnesota has already come out of the playbook. He has been the league's least frequent user of play-action among starting quarterbacks all season. I believe that's more a product of Cousins' immobility than coordinator Zac Robinson's philosophy.
All of this creates a difficult problem for the Falcons, who have to weigh both 2024 and 2025 concerns. They're still firmly in the race to win the NFC South, as they're a game behind the Buccaneers and would hold a potential tiebreaker after sweeping their division rivals. Three of their final four games are against the Raiders, Giants and Panthers, all teams they should be able to beat on the paper. Winning those three games would get the Falcons to nine wins and make them comfortable favorites to advance to the postseason.
Is Cousins their best hope of winning those games? His performance on the throws that aren't interceptions suggests he can still do enough, but I'm nervous watching him on a snap-by-snap basis. The decision not to go to Michael Penix Jr. outside of garbage time in a divisional race suggests the Falcons aren't sure their rookie first-round pick will be any better, although coach Raheem Morris might not have wanted to take Cousins out in Minnesota against his former franchise.
I'd give Cousins one more game against the Raiders, a team whose pass defense is below average by both QBR and interception rate. This has been a brutal stretch of opposing defenses, and given that he was dominating subpar ones immediately beforehand, I'd want to give him one chance to prove that the underlying performance beyond the interceptions is the real Cousins for the remainder of the season.
The Falcons also have a vested interest in wanting to prove that Cousins is still an NFL-caliber quarterback: They need to trade him this offseason. In addition to paying him $62.5 million this season, they are on the hook for a $27.5 million guaranteed base salary next season. If he is on the roster through March 17, Atlanta (or whichever team acquires him) would guarantee an additional $10 million roster bonus for 2026, bringing the total compensation to $100 million for two years of work.
If the Falcons bench Cousins, there's a real chance they have to eat money to trade him this offseason or just cut him outright to avoid triggering that additional $10 million bonus. If that happens, they will have paid him $90 million for one year of work. While that might only confirm Cousins status as a first-ballot Bag Hall of Famer, it would be an embarrassing piece of business for Atlanta.
The only reason the Falcons would be willing to tank Cousins' potential trade value would be if they felt like the quarterback was tanking the franchise's chances of making it to the playoffs. I'm not sure we're at that point, but we're also not that far off.
Likely 2025 starter: Penix
Las Vegas Raiders
What happened in Week 14: Aidan O'Connell went 11-of-19 for 104 yards and an interception before suffering a serious injury; Desmond Ridder finished up by going 12-of-18 for 101 yards in a 28-13 loss to the Buccaneers.
The excitement created by O'Connell's poised, mature performance against the Chiefs on Black Friday sadly gave way to more disappointment for the Raiders on Sunday, as the second-year quarterback was forced from the game in an air cast by a hit from Calijah Kancey. Coach Antonio Pierce and his organization suggested the hit by Kancey was late, but even if the NFL agrees during the week, there's not much to be done. It would be a surprise if O'Connell were able to return this season.
While O'Connell looked impressive against Kansas City and threw eight touchdown passes without a pick down a stretch last season, the fact the Raiders signed Gardner Minshew this offseason and then handed him the Week 1 job over O'Connell says a lot about where the organization stands on his future. O'Connell was briefly given the job in October before suffering a broken thumb, but it's tough to see the Raiders feeling much differently about the second-year pro now than they did before the season. The Josh McDaniels-Dave Ziegler regime that drafted O'Connell is no longer in the building, which usually doesn't help Day 3 picks in key positions who haven't locked down their jobs.
Minshew was benched two different times before suffering a broken collarbone in November. His season is over, and there's a decent chance he won't be back in 2025, given that only $3.2 million of his $12.5 million total compensation is guaranteed. The Raiders could try to force him to take a pay cut to stay with the team, but he threw more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (nine) during his nine starts in Vegas. Ridder, who will start for the remainder of the season if healthy, was a practice-squad addition in midseason.
The Raiders has a 15.8% chance of landing the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, per ESPN's Football Power Index, which would put them in position to draft their quarterback of the future. The idea of Deion and Shedeur Sanders in the bright lights of Las Vegas is too easy to imagine, but it's unclear who the Raiders might pursue with the top pick if they land it. Given their woes at quarterback, it seems likely they will have to give serious thought to using that selection on yet another signal-caller.
Likely 2025 starter: A rookie quarterback selected in the 2025 draft
Tennessee Titans
What happened in Week 14: Will Levis went 19-of-32 for 168 yards in a 10-6 loss to the Jaguars.
When Deshaun Watson no longer has enough pass attempts to qualify as eligible for the league's worst in rate metrics, Levis will take over the basement as the NFL's least productive quarterback. Levis' 34.7 Total QBR ranks 33rd, ahead of only Watson. He's also 33rd in EPA per dropback and 32nd in first-down rate, ahead of only Watson and Anthony Richardson. Levis has fumbled seven times in 10 games and thrown picks on 3.3% of his attempts. There are just too many negative plays here and not enough in the way of positive gains to offset those issues.
Levis' biggest problem is a disastrous 11.8% sack rate. Tennessee has just scored two touchdowns on 31 drives in which he has taken a sack this season. The only offense with more two-plus sack drives is the Bears, who have fired their coach and offensive coordinator this season.
Some of that is on the offensive line, but sack rates are a quarterback stat, and those passers have more say over their sack rate than some might believe. Levis took a brutal blindside hit from Josh Hines-Allen to end the first half Sunday before returning, and while that came with the Jags standout running right past first-round left tackle JC Latham, it also came in a Hail Mary situation in which Levis appeared to have no expectation or feel that Hines-Allen had blown by his left tackle. Frankly, he shouldn't have been surprised. Both he and the offensive line have been problems in terms of avoiding sacks all season.
It's a shame, because watching Levis when he's on has been more fun than you might think. Coach Brian Callahan has imported quarterback run concepts and even triple-option looks for Levis in key situations. The second-year pro has an extremely strong arm and makes some impressive passes; 54.8% of his attempts are considered precise throws that hit the receiver in stride near the torso, the 12th-best rate in football.
And frankly, he's not getting a ton of help. The offensive line has been woeful, with Latham and Nicholas Petit-Frere struggling at tackle and 2023 first-round pick Peter Skoronski not taking enough of a step forward on the interior. Calvin Ridley has been far too inconsistent; on Sunday, Levis hit Ridley on a boot for what would have been a key first down in the red zone with 1:20 to go, only for Ridley to run out of bounds for a short gain instead of turning upfield. Levis then wasn't able to link up with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in the end zone for a touchdown, handing the ball back to the Jags.
Tennessee's season was already over before Sunday but losing to a Jaguars team with Mac Jones under center and seemingly a lame-duck coach in Doug Pederson has to be a new low. Levis failing to lead a touchdown drive can't do much to help his chances of starting in 2025, although Sam Darnold also wasn't able to get into the end zone against the same defense in Week 10. There's no reason for the Titans to go back to Mason Rudolph down the stretch, but it would take an extraordinary finish from Levis down the stretch to justify bringing him back as the unquestioned starter in Week 1 of 2025.
Likely 2025 starter: A player who isn't on the current roster