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2024 NFL playoff picture: AFC, NFC seed projections, chances

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Are the Chiefs the scariest team in the AFC? (6:47)

Stephen A. Smith, Shannon Sharpe and Domonique Foxworth break down which team in the AFC is the scariest to face. (6:47)

We're through Week 5 of the 2024 NFL regular season, and although the postseason is months away, we're taking an early look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX.

Which teams are already in good shape? Which still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field? We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl. Here's everything you need right now.

Last update: Oct. 8 at 10 a.m. ET

Jump to a conference:
AFC | NFC

Projecting the AFC playoff field

Two teams in the NFL have a 90% or better chance to make the playoffs this season, and they both play in the AFC. The Chiefs lead at over 99%, while the Ravens are at 92%. The Texans have an 89% chance to make the postseason, and the Bills are at 88%. All four teams have at least 70% odds to win their respective divisions.

The Patriots sit at the bottom of the conference in playoff chances (2%), but the Browns are right there with them at 5%.


Projecting the NFC playoff field

The 5-0 Vikings have the best postseason odds in the NFC at 89%. The NFC North figures to remain a tight competition, though, with three teams above 50% to make the playoffs. Detroit is right behind Minnesota with a 75% chance to make the playoffs. And here's something we didn't expect: The Commanders have the third-best playoff chances in the entire conference at 70%, including a 48% chance to win the NFC East. The Saints now have a 40% chance to make the postseason after losing to Kansas City in Week 5.

The Panthers are at the bottom of the NFL in odds to make the playoffs, checking in with a slim 1% chance.


NFL playoff schedule

Jan. 11-13: Wild-card round
Jan. 18-19: Divisional round
Jan. 26: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)