We're through Week 11 of the 2024 NFL regular season and although the postseason is still roughly two months away, we're taking an early look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX.
Which teams are already in good shape? Which still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field? We used ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl. Here's everything you need right now.
Last update: Nov. 19 at 9:45 a.m. ET
Jump to a conference:
AFC | NFC
Projecting the AFC playoff field
The AFC is becoming more and more clear. The Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Texans are all just about locks to make the playoffs, while the Chargers are right there at 94%. The Broncos (51%) and Colts (33%) are the only other teams in the conference above 15% right now.
Division races in the AFC might not be super exciting down the stretch, either. The FPI believes the AFC West, AFC East and AFC South are all but decided. Keep an eye on the AFC North, though, where the Steelers lead at 65% to take the division title.
The Raiders, Patriots, Jaguars, Titans, Browns and Jets sit at the bottom of the conference in playoff chances.
Projecting the NFC playoff field
The Lions, Eagles and Vikings are the only NFC teams above 90% right now to make the playoffs, but the Commanders (89%) and Packers (88%) both loom. Those are all NFC North and NFC East teams, so what about the other two divisions?
In the NFC South, the Falcons hold the advantage at 73% to make the postseason and 71% to win the division, but the Buccaneers are lingering at 31% and 25%, respectively. In the NFC West, the Cardinals have the best chances, sitting at 63% to make the playoffs and 58% to win the division. However, all four teams in that division have more than a 10% chance to take the title.
The Giants, Cowboys, Panthers, Bears and Saints are all below 5% to make the playoffs.
Check out our NFL Playoff Machine
Simulate your own scenarios and check out the latest playoff picture: Try the 2024 NFL Playoff Picture.
NFL playoff schedule
Jan. 11-13, 2025: Wild-card round
Jan. 18-19: Divisional round
Jan. 26: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)