Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season is officially over, and it's never too early to start thinking about the 2025 draft, which begins on April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. So let's take a look at the projected first-round draft order for all 32 teams using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 20,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team's average draft position in the simulations.
Our preseason FPI predictions gave the New England Patriots the best chances of securing the first pick, but there has been a shift at the top of the projected board. Who's the new No. 1 after the start of the regular season? Which teams could land a top-five pick? Check out our full projections below, and check back every Tuesday for updates throughout the season.
1. Carolina Panthers (0-1)
Average draft position: 4.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 27.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 70.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 88.2%
2. New York Giants (0-1)
Average draft position: 6.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 15.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 54.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 79.1%
3. Denver Broncos (0-1)
Average draft position: 7.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 50.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 75.5%
4. Las Vegas Raiders (0-1)
Average draft position: 9.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 8.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 38.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 64.1%
5. Tennessee Titans (0-1)
Average draft position: 10.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 6.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 33.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 60.4%
6. Washington Commanders (0-1)
Average draft position: 10.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 29.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 54.9%
7. New England Patriots (0-1)
Average draft position: 11
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 27.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 53.7%
8. Arizona Cardinals (0-1)
Average draft position: 12.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 20.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 44.9%
9. Cleveland Browns (0-1)
Average draft position: 13.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 17.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 40.3%
10. Indianapolis Colts (0-1)
Average draft position: 13.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 18.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 40.9%
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)
Average draft position: 14.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 15.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 37%
12. Atlanta Falcons (0-1)
Average draft position: 15.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 13%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 32.1%
13. Seattle Seahawks (1-0)
Average draft position: 16.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 9.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 27.5%
14. Chicago Bears (1-0)
Average draft position: 16.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 9.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 27.5%
15. Green Bay Packers (0-1)
Average draft position: 16.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 27.4%
16. Los Angeles Rams (0-1)
Average draft position: 16.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 26.6%
17. Minnesota Vikings (1-0)
Average draft position: 16.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 25.5%
18. Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)
Average draft position: 17.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 26.3%
19. New York Jets (0-1)
Average draft position: 17.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 25.4%
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)
Average draft position: 17.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 22.6%
21. New Orleans Saints (1-0)
Average draft position: 18.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 19.9%
22. Los Angeles Chargers (1-0)
Average draft position: 18.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 19.9%
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)
Average draft position: 18.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 17%
24. Miami Dolphins (1-0)
Average draft position: 20.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14.4%
25. Baltimore Ravens (0-1)
Average draft position: 20.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 13.2%
26. Buffalo Bills (1-0)
Average draft position: 22.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 8.8%
27. Dallas Cowboys (1-0)
Average draft position: 22.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.3%
28. Houston Texans (1-0)
Average draft position: 23
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 7.4%
29. Detroit Lions (1-0)
Average draft position: 24.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.2%
30. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)
Average draft position: 24.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.4%
31. San Francisco 49ers (1-0)
Average draft position: 25.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.3%
32. Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)
Average draft position: 26.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.4%