We're headed into Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen pointing to five potential surprises and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking one team on upset watch. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Upset watch
Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Week 11 winners
Could Khalil Shakir YAC his way to a big game against the Chiefs?
The Chiefs' defense is tough to get past, but 53% of the receiving yards they allow come after the catch -- the sixth-highest rate in the league. That could be good news for Shakir, who has the second-most yards after the catch (YAC) of all wideouts this season (407).
He gets those extra yards for two reasons. First, looking at the 11 route types that lead to the highest percentage of yards after the catch -- including screens, drags, flats and hitches -- Shakir runs them at the highest rate in the league. Second, he has a 72 YAC score, per ESPN's receiver scores, meaning he generates more YAC than expected based on the situation at the time of reception. It could be a useful recipe against the Chiefs.
Can the Chiefs lean on another big receiving game from Kareem Hunt?
They might have to. Among outside cornerbacks with at least 150 coverage snaps this season, the Bills' duo of Rasul Douglas (12%) and Christian Benford (13%) has allowed the fifth- and eighth-lowest target rates this season, respectively. Only 51% of opponent targets have gone to wide receivers against the Bills, which is the second-lowest rate in the NFL.
What does that mean for Kansas City? Fewer targets for DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy, and perhaps more reliance on Travis Kelce and Noah Gray. But most of all, this points to a bigger day for Hunt, who had 10 targets and seven receptions a week ago. That's because the Bills allow a league-high 26% of opponent targets to running backs.
Does Will Levis have a chance against the blitz-heavy Minnesota defense?
Levis' numbers are poor in general. His 32 QBR is better than only Deshaun Watson. Levis has the worst turnover rate in the NFL (4.7%), and his sack rate (12%) is unacceptably high.
Those numbers get even worse against the blitz. His QBR drops to a 7 (worst in NFL), the turnover rate skyrockets to 7.3% (worst), and the sack rate jumps to a 17% (second-worst). No team blitzes more than Minnesota, with defensive coordinator Brian Flores sending extra heat 40% of the time. Good luck.
Can Jared Verse cement his Defensive Rookie of the Year case against the Patriots?
I don't know about clinching the award by Week 11, but this has the hallmarks of a potential statement game for the rookie. I wrote about Verse in this space before Week 2, hitting on how strong the early signs were from him. He has kept it up.
Verse's 18.8% pass rush win rate ranks 12th-best at edge (basically only behind superstars), and his 34% run stop win rate is third. He will draw the Patriots' Vederian Lowe, who has a below-average 86% pass block win rate at tackle on a struggling offensive line. Drake Maye has taken sacks on 7.5% of dropbacks, which is slightly higher than league average.
Can the Jets' ground game help them defeat the Colts?
If the Jets have any prayer at all for their ill-fated season, they basically have to win Sunday -- it's their most likely remaining victory, according to our Football Power Index. Considering the passing game's performance last week, the Jets could surely use help from their rushing attack. The only problem is their most common run (outside zone on 51% of plays) is defended particularly well by Indianapolis.
The Colts are allowing minus-0.25 EPA on more than 100 outside zone runs this season, which is best in the league. That success has come through a combination of defensive linemen bowling through their blockers, linebackers storming downhill to make a play and corners tackling on the edge. New York most likely will have to find another path to victory ... if it finds one at all.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up -- and can start this week
Audric Estime, RB, Denver Broncos (25.0% rostered)
He led the Broncos' backfield in snaps, touches and fantasy points against the Chiefs in Week 10. However, he's still sharing touches with Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. That means Estime is best viewed as a flex option behind a Broncos offensive line that ranks sixth in run block win rate. The Falcons' defense ranks 28th in run stop win rate (28.2%).
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots (14.4% rostered)
Maye has scored 15-plus fantasy points in three of his past five games. His rushing ability makes him a solid fantasy option, averaging 4.1 rushing attempts and 39 rushing yards per game. The Rams' defense has allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game (219.6). Don't sleep on Maye this week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, New Orleans Saints (9.4% rostered)
Valdes-Scantling may seem boom-or-bust after posting 25.9 fantasy points on just three receptions, but Derek Carr only attempted 25 passes against the Falcons during that big outing last week. Alvin Kamara led the team with six targets.
The Saints are clearly in need of wide receiver help, and Valdes-Scantling led the receiver group in routes run last week. Now he faces a Browns defense that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Jameis Winston, QB, Cleveland Browns (6.9% rostered)
The Winston revenge game against the Saints lost some of its luster after Dennis Allen's firing, but he'll still be motivated to put on a strong performance. Prior to the Week 10 bye, Winston averaged 43.5 pass attempts per game in Weeks 8-9. He should find success against a Saints defense that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (244.6).
Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills (2.1% rostered)
Dalton Kincaid will miss the matchup against the Chiefs after suffering a knee injury last week. Knox already has chemistry with Josh Allen, having caught 18 receiving touchdowns in the two seasons prior to Kincaid's arrival in Buffalo. Kansas City's defense, meanwhile, has struggled against tight ends, ranking second in fantasy points allowed per game to the position.
Bowen: Don't be surprised if ...
Josh Allen runs for a touchdown against the Chiefs
Allen scored a rushing touchdown last Sunday -- his first since Week 6 -- and he has now logged at least seven carries in three of his past five games. I think Allen will have to make plays outside of structure against the Chiefs' defense, so look for him to score on a second-reaction rushing attempt in the red zone.
Josh Jacobs rushes for over 100 yards against the Bears
Jacobs has topped the 100-yard mark only twice this season, but he has posted at least 18 carries in three of his past five games. With the Bears' defense allowing 133.0 yards rushing per game (24th most in the league), this feels like a volume day for Jacobs at Soldier Field.
Amani Hooker intercepts Sam Darnold
The Titans have recorded only three interceptions this season, which is 29th in the league. But Hooker has all three of them. Plus, Darnold's decision-making has declined; he has thrown five interceptions over his past two games. I think Hooker makes a play here.
George Pickens records over 100 receiving yards against the Ravens
In his three games with Russell Wilson as the Steelers' starting quarterback, Pickens has averaged 92 receiving yards per game and almost 20 yards per reception. Against a Ravens defense that's allowing a league-worst 294.9 passing yards per game, he will have opportunities to create explosive plays at the third level of the field.
Quentin Johnston catches a touchdown against the Bengals
Johnston has a touchdown reception in back-to-back games, and he has at least one in four of his past six. Against a weak Cincinnati secondary, I expect quarterback Justin Herbert to find Johnston in the end zone for the third straight game. The Bengals have given up 17 touchdowns through the air this season, which is tied for sixth most in the league.
Solak: Favorite upset pick for Week 11
Indianapolis Colts (+4) at New York Jets
It feels like the Cardinals game was finally the time for the Jets to roll over and give up on the season. Sure, they still have close to a 10% shot to make the playoffs, per ESPN's Football Power Index, but their defense looks like it has no fight left in it, and the offense simply isn't explosive enough to scare opposing teams.
A still-kicking Colts squad comes into town with Anthony Richardson back at the helm. I expect a heavy dose of the run game from Indianapolis, which should mow down the soft Jets defense. An improved Colts pass rush will also constantly put Aaron Rodgers in uncomfortable situations. Give me the Colts at MetLife Stadium.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
The Chiefs are slowly getting healthier. Though running back Isiah Pacheco (fibula) is out this week, he is hopeful to return to action in Week 12 against Carolina. It will depend largely on how much practice he can handle over the next week, but Pacheco prides himself on not needing much of a ramp-up period. When he's ready, he won't want to wait. And the Chiefs haven't totally ruled out a return for Hollywood Brown (shoulder) at some point. Kansas City coaches have been checking in with him, and the picture should become more clear over the next three to four weeks.
After sitting out two weeks, receiver Amari Cooper (questionable, wrist) is hopeful to play Sunday. Buffalo will see how he feels over the weekend, and it's not a slam dunk that he is active, but playing has been his goal. Cooper was seen catching passes Friday while wearing a cast.
Receiver Tee Higgins sitting out three Bengals games because of a quad injury wasn't ideal. But the way the Bengals saw it, sitting him for last week's Thursday night game gave him an extra 10 days to recover. Had that game been on a Sunday, he might have had a better chance to play. But waiting the extra 10 days ensured he would have a productive week of practice and be ready to play without a major ramp-up. The Bengals will need him for the stretch run.
Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken was describing the Ravens-Steelers rivalry when he added that the Ravens "owed them one" after playing poorly in a 17-10 loss late last season. This brings up a point that someone with the team told me this week: "When we commit to the run, we're tough to beat." Baltimore's running backs struggled in that loss last season, but when Derrick Henry gets 15 or more carries, the Ravens are 7-1 this season. When he gets fewer than 15, Baltimore is 0-2. It seems pretty clear who will get the ball in his first taste of the Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry this weekend.
With the Anthony Richardson experience restarting in Indianapolis, the two-week benching "definitely got his attention," according to a source close to him. "I do think he'll come out better for this. He knows how he responds is what's really important."
Part of the reason teammates publicly supported Richardson this week, via the source, is that he's a hard worker. That hasn't been an issue. But attention to detail has been one, according to coach Shane Steichen. And Steichen says Richardson has improved in that area in recent weeks. How the Colts structure Richardson's game plan to maximize success will be something opposing coaches are watching closely. How will they make the game easier for him?