Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season sure felt like a return to normalcy after so many surprises in September. The Lions and 49ers scored a bunch of points. The Patriots and Jets did not. The Falcons and Saints played a weird and sloppy game. Joe Flacco was dicing defenses from the pocket. Welcome back, 2023 -- we missed you.
Every Tuesday, I'll spin the previous week of NFL football forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean for what comes next. We'll take a first look at the consequences of "Monday Night Football," break down a major trend or two, and highlight some key individual players and plays.
There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun. Let's jump in.
Jump to a section:
The Big Thing: The Jags' tumble
All-Film Team: Quarterly callouts
Mailbag: Questions from ... you
Second Take: Are the Chiefs in trouble?
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 4 stats
Monday night multicast
The Big Thing: The fall of the Jaguars
Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous Sunday of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season?
In the middle of the 2022 season, the Jaguars were 2-6. It wasn't great, but it wasn't awful. They were only one year into coach Doug Pederson's tenure and still recovering from the abject disaster of the 2021 Urban Meyer season. You remember? He kicked his own players during warmups and called his assistant coaches losers. Nightmare stuff.
So 2-6 under Pederson wasn't really all that bad. The team was young and still discovering its identity. The Jaguars had lost five consecutive one-score games, but you learn a lot about yourself in losses like that -- namely, how to clean up the little stuff and execute when the chips are down. This is my opinion, but at the time, it was also Pederson's opinion. Here's what he said in his postgame news conference after they fell to 2-6:
"We just keep plugging. We just keep plugging away, and we keep practicing and we keep learning and we keep teaching, and we keep scratching and fighting. ... I truly believe that good things are going to happen for this football team. We're sitting here after eight games, not where we want to be, obviously, but to every man in there, nobody is going to hang their head. Nobody is going to feel sorry for us."
Pederson was right. The Jaguars went 7-2 down the stretch, won the AFC South title at 9-8 and then executed one of the biggest postseason comebacks in NFL history, climbing out of a 27-point hole against the Chargers in the wild-card round. Pederson's message to the team at halftime of that historic rally was much the same as it had been when they were down 2-6 midseason: "I went in and told the team, 'One play at a time. Chip away. Defense, you're starting the second half -- get us a stop. Offense, we got to score every time we touch the ball.' I knew we could get back into the football game."
That win was 20 months ago. It might as well be 20 years.
The 2024 Jaguars are 0-4. They surrendered a second-half lead over the Dolphins in Week 1, gave the 1-3 Browns their only win in Week 2, were embarrassed in prime time by the Bills in Week 3 and gave up another second-half lead in Week 4 against the division-rival Texans. They are the only winless team left in football.
But this team has been in a hole before, right? Pederson has pulled Jacksonville out of bad spirals; quarterback Trevor Lawrence has willed the team to unlikely victories. But these Jags sound nothing like those Jags. Here's part of Pederson's news conference after the loss to the Texans: "As coaches, we can't go out there and make the plays. It's a two-way street."
No more "just keep plugging." No more "chip away." The steady hand at the wheel in 2022 has let go so that it can point a finger at someone else: the players.
And it's very clear Pederson is pointing the finger at Lawrence above all others. He spoke explicitly about Lawrence's execution during his Monday availability, saying, "We missed Christian [Kirk] early in the third quarter, second play. We missed him on a deep -- I mean, we maybe score, I don't know."
Here's the deep post Pederson is talking about, and he's 100% correct: Kirk is open, and Lawrence misses him. And Lawrence has been missing too many throws this season. He has an off-target rate of 20.9%, which is the highest of his career, and an NFL Next Gen Stats completion percentage over expectation of minus-12.9%, an astonishingly low number. Rookie Zach Wilson was at minus-13.9% with the Jets in 2021, and second-year Wilson improved to minus-12.2%. Carolina's Bryce Young was at minus-8.1% last season and was at minus-11.4% this season before he was benched. That's the company Lawrence is keeping right now.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 1, 2024
Now, the funny thing is that despite his misses, Lawrence is still winning on the deep ball. He has always been an aggressive thrower, willing to attack downfield windows and hunt big plays at the expense of easier completions and high-percentage targets. On throws of 20-plus air yards, Lawrence is 7-for-16 for 222 yards and a score; that's fifth in EPA per dropback and 11th in success rate. The downfield accuracy for Lawrence hasn't really been a problem.
The reliance on the downfield passing game is the far bigger issue. Lawrence is averaging 9.8 air yards per attempt, easily the highest number of his career. If it held for the full season, it would be the seventh-highest number for a quarterback since 2019. Meanwhile, the base passing game can't carry its weight to get to the shot plays. There are no layups, no easy buckets. The Jaguars have called almost half as many screens this season (6.5% of Lawrence's dropbacks) as they did in 2023 (12.5%). And 30% of Lawrence's passing yards have come after the catch. Since 2019, the league average is 46.7%. The Jaguars have a 20% success rate when throwing behind the line of scrimmage, which is just about the saddest thing I've ever heard.
But Pederson doesn't call up an easy completion behind the line of scrimmage to get to third-and-manageable, nor does he call a run play. As he says, "I'm not going to do that. ... I want Trevor. ... He's our guy; you got to put the ball in his hands, you got to continue to trust him; I'm going to continue to do that."
Here's another miss, coming on an intermediate out-breaking route to wide receiver Gabe Davis. Lawrence has the ball out before Davis breaks, but the pass is hot and high, and Davis can get only one hand on it. And now it's suddenly third-and-10.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 1, 2024
I'd argue that getting an easy completion on second-and-10 doesn't betray trust in your quarterback, but I understand why Pederson wants to trust Lawrence. It's better to get two shots at a completion beyond the sticks than play for a third-and-medium. And that's what's very frustrating about Pederson's complaints here about Lawrence's accuracy and execution: what happens on third-and-10 after the second-and-10 miss.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 1, 2024
It's a big completion from rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. It's not a perfect ball by any means, but a good one for a first down.
If we use this three-play sequence as a microcosm for how hot and cold Lawrence has been this season, then it's easy to see that blame belongs on Lawrence for missing too many throws. But good offenses can deal with their quarterback's bad games and worst misses and still find ways to move the football. Good teams play complementary ball. That isn't happening in Jacksonville at all.
The Jaguars' situational football is abysmal. They have 10 offensive procedural penalties on the season, and six of them have come in the red zone, which ties for the league high. They've scored on 9 of 14 red zone drives (only the Dolphins are worse), converted only 25% of their third downs (only the Browns and Broncos are worse) and look good on fourth down only because all four of their conversions came against the Bills -- three of them when they were already down three scores. By fourth-down EPA, the Jaguars are fourth worst in the league.
But that isn't just execution. Pederson can't point the finger at his players' failure in execution without accidentally pointing a few fingers back at himself. It is a poorly prepared team that constantly makes mistakes. It is a poorly constructed game plan that fails in the red zone and on late downs. And where there was previously faith in the team and its effort, there is now division and immovability. Pederson is not helping Lawrence; Lawrence is not helping Pederson. And it feels as if the two parties are entrenched, wondering when the other guys are going to fix their problems.
I'd say the Jaguars need a win just to wipe the slate clean. Take a glug of mouthwash and get the bad taste out of everyone's mouth. But we might already be beyond the point where beating the Colts (led by Joe Flacco?) at home in Week 5 heals all wounds. Pederson is taking a very public tough-love approach to Lawrence -- and maybe it'll work. Maybe Lawrence will become more accurate and consistent, hitting all the throws we know he can hit. But the idea that all of the Jaguars' problems will be fixed if Lawrence just hits a deep ball to Kirk ... well, that doesn't pass the smell test to me at all.
Even if Pederson deserves less blame than Lawrence -- which I think is a fair read of the Texans game but not a fair read of the 0-4 start in totality -- Lawrence is the $275 million man. Should the 2024 Jaguars never get off the mat, it will be Pederson's seat that gets hot, as he's far more fungible than the recently extended Lawrence.
Just as I was when Meyer was ousted and Pederson was inserted, I'm confident a breath of fresh air could lead to a quick and significant improvement in the Jaguars' offense. There are fewer easy buttons in this offense than in any other leaguewide. Put some millennial Shanahan-ian scheme lord on the headset and offense will become so much easier in Jacksonville even if Lawrence is missing throws, because the margins for error will be so much wider.
I find myself thinking of Matthew Stafford in Detroit, constantly climbing uphill battles on poorly coached teams with poorly constructed rosters, until suddenly he was playing for Sean McVay in Los Angeles. Is Lawrence another talented top pick who has underwhelmed in bad circumstances before eventually blossoming in greener pastures? Just like Stafford, we've seen how easily Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield have been elevated on new teams, and Lawrence is remarkably more talented than both of them.
This should not be hard, and for the right coach, it will not be hard. That right coach was Pederson in 2022, but it doesn't sound as if it's Pederson in 2024. And if it isn't going to be Pederson ever, then it should be someone else's job in 2025.
All-Film Team: First-quarter acknowledgements
Once in a while, I'll update my All-Film List -- or, as it's better known, my list of "players who won't get season-long awards or All-Pro nods or anything but are still good."
Man, I miss when you could actually divide the season neatly into quarters. Then I could write something nice and nifty like, "We're a quarter of the way through the season. What a great time to check in on awards, rookies and whatever." Anyway, we're four weeks into a 17-week season, which is as good a time as any to update my All-Film Team. This is a list without qualification. Rookies can make it, veterans can make it and guys you've never heard of can definitely make it. It's meant to catch those players who might not be popping on counting stats or playing key positions on contending teams ... but are popping on the film.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams: Your favorite quarterback's favorite quarterback. The Rams are 1-3, but they'd be 0-4 -- heck, they'd be relegated to the Pac-2 -- if not for Stafford, who has been lights-out this season under constant duress. There isn't a QB in the NFC playing better ball than Stafford (it isn't close), and only a couple in the AFC are.
Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings: The Packers wanted to move on from the aging Jones a year early, and boy were they a year early. Jones looks as spry as ever in Minnesota, where the Vikings are wisely managing his touches with a healthy dash of Ty Chandler (who also looks good). Jones remains one of the best pass-catching backs in the league for his vision and elusiveness.
Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders: As a longtime Jakobi Meyers fan and big Brock Bowers guy, I thought Tucker would average one target per game this season for a healthy 45 air yards a pop. Not so. Tucker has caught 12 of his 15 targets over the past two games and scored both a receiving and a rushing touchdown. He's my sort of speedster -- fast, but still a little stocky and really tough. He doesn't shy away from contact.
Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers: Everyone loves Jennings, the dirty-work WR3 of the 49ers who picks up key blocks and the occasional third-down target. But the 2024 version of Jennings, who's making fingertip grabs deep downfield and snapping corners off with routes? I didn't know he had this in him. Good on the 49ers for securing him with an extension this offseason.
Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers: Legette totaled six catches on 10 targets for 66 yards and a score in the Panthers' first game without Adam Thielen. But more importantly, the routes looked crisp and his hands looked excellent. He's a walking big play on every touch, but if he can reliably separate, watch out.
Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers: I was big on Luke Musgrave entering the season, and Packers fans told me he was the second-best tight end on his team. I'm here to eat my crow. Kraft has been a devastating blocker and reliable pass catcher with great YAC juice. He looks like the next George Kittle.
Spencer Brown, OT, Buffalo Bills: A lot of teams take the toolsy, small-school tackle in the middle rounds; few teams actually develop the guy. Kudos to the Bills, who rode some early ups-and-downs from their 2021 third-round draft selection and are now reaping the fruit of their patience. Brown has learned how to play light and balanced despite his enormous 6-foot-8 frame, and he hadn't given up a pressure all season until he ran into weirdly elite edge rusher Kyle Van Noy on Sunday night.
Charles Cross, OT, Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks fans have their complaints about Cross, who has been struggling with health since the beginning of the 2023 season. But when Cross is 100%, he's one of the smoothest young pass protectors in the league. More telling than anything is how this new offensive staff uses him: The Seahawks don't keep a lot of additional pass protectors in, and when they're sliding the line, it's frequently away from Cross. He's winning on an island right now.
Erik McCoy, C, New Orleans Saints: McCoy is a fairly well-known name as centers go, but I don't think folks realize just how well he was playing before his Week 3 groin injury. I would have called him an easy first-team All-Pro player had he kept that up. There are a few centers in the league who look great on the hoof -- Tyler Linderbaum, Creed Humphrey -- but McCoy is just as prolific on the run while carrying guard-size length and weight. The Saints' running game should be OK without him, but wait to see the bump once he returns.
Mekhi Becton, G, Philadelphia Eagles: It's no secret that Becton is good when he's healthy, or that Eagles offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland can develop with the best of them. But I am continually impressed by Becton in the running game, where he has taken to a complex Eagles scheme with aplomb. Becton's tackle-like length and size really helps him in pass protection, too. He settled in quickly in Philly after a disappointing stint with the Jets.
Will Fries, G, Indianapolis Colts: What do you know about Fries? He's probably the most obscure name on my list, but Fries won the starting guard spot to start the 2023 season, played solid ball, saw the Colts draft multiple offensive linemen in the 2024 draft and brought his game up to another level in response. He is tall for a guard (6-6) but does a wonderful job staying balanced and low against shorter, squatter interior rushers. His length is a huge advantage when climbing to the second level, too.
Gervon Dexter Sr., DT, Chicago Bears: One of my preseason X factors, Dexter has been all the Bears hoped for and more. He's consistently winning his one-on-one pass rushes from the inside, and perhaps most importantly, he's winning his rushes fast. That early pressure creates clean-up opportunities for the rest of the Chicago pass rush. Dexter has a great box score right now (three sacks, nine pressures), and I'm not sure even that accurately encompasses just how disruptive he has been early.
Travis Jones, DT, Baltimore Ravens: Last season, it was Nnamdi Madubuike who made headlines -- and received the big contract -- in the Ravens' DT room. Madubuike is still great, but the next time you watch the Ravens, watch big No. 98 just walk opposing guards backward at will. Jones has unreal stopping power, even among NFL nose tackles, and he has started to work that strength into successful pass rushes this year, too. I'd put Madubuike and Jones up against just about any tackle duo in the league.
Boye Mafe, Edge, Seattle Seahawks: There were just enough Mafe flashes last season to be interested in what new coach Mike Macdonald might get out of him in 2024. But I did not have the highly explosive and versatile outside rusher that Mafe has become anywhere near my bingo card. Mafe has a time to pressure of 2.62 seconds, which is about as fast as you'll see for a high-volume edge rusher -- but he's not sacrificing good plays against the run with that upfield aggressiveness. If he keeps this up, he'll have a 10-sack season for sure.
Keion White, Edge, New England Patriots: White isn't a perfect fit for every defense, but he's exactly what the Patriots have always prioritized at the position. He is huge and heavy-handed, so he's a challenge to run at on early downs. On passing downs, he can win from the outside by pushing the pocket but is most devastating when knifing inside and winning against heavier, slower linemen. White can play out of control at times, but the physical toolkit is exciting stuff.
Frankie Luvu, LB, Washington Commanders: I wasn't totally sure about Luvu in a Dan Quinn defense, as he was best as a hybrid rush LB in Carolina. But Luvu has spent most of his snaps at off-ball linebacker and has looked excellent. He slips downhill against the run with the best of them, taking on blocks better than the average undersized off-ball linebacker of the modern NFL. And when he blitzes, he's unsurprisingly disruptive. Washington's defense is far from perfect, but it has some playmakers -- and Luvu is one of them.
DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Dallas Cowboys: If you're going to be an undersized 'backer in the NFL, you'd better be so fast and tackle so well in space that you can make up for shaky between-the-tackles play. That's exactly what I'm seeing from Overshown, who can absolutely fly to the football when running sideline to sideline. I'm not sure the cover instincts are there yet -- Overshown is only a second-year player who sat out his rookie season -- but if they come with reps, he looks like a splashy playmaker.
Dru Phillips, NB, New York Giants: To play the nickel in the modern NFL, you've got to be the most overconfident, fearless little guy on the field. Phillips, a third-round rookie who walked into the starting job in camp, is exactly that. He sticks his face in the fan against the run and has a great nose for screens and misdirection, especially when you consider how green he is in this role. He has been excellent on blitzes, too. Rookie mistakes will come, especially in coverage, but this is exactly the sort of makeup you want in a modern slot defender.
Riley Moss, CB, Denver Broncos: The Broncos walked into the season with an elite outside cornerback in Pat Surtain II, a great nickel corner in Ja'Quan McMillian and uncertainty at the last cornerback position. They wanted Moss to fill that spot; he was a 2023 third-rounder who couldn't break the starting lineup last season after missing time in the summer because of injury. Four weeks in, Moss is all they wanted and more: physical at the catch point, great as a tackler and able to find the football. He has been tested a ton by opposing quarterbacks, too, and he's answering the call.
Zyon McCollum, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: McCollum emerged at the 2022 combine as a 6-2 corner with elite jumps, great agility drills and a blistering 40-yard dash, but he was a late-round pick as a raw prospect out of a small school (Sam Houston). Under Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay, McCollum has gone from special-teamer to the first CB off the bench to entrenched starter. And he's playing great ball. I can't believe how good his eyes and feel for routes are given his lack of experience and billing as an all-tools player. McCollum is playing like a Pro Bowl pick right now.
Elijah Molden, S, Los Angeles Chargers: Can a player be a guilty pleasure? I know Molden is a smaller defensive back and probably never will be an impact starter because of the limitations on his range and catch-point disruption. But listen ... he is good. He's just good. He is very instinctive, always assignment-sound, tackles better than you'd think for a smaller player, and can play man coverage in the slot in a pinch. He's a true coach on the field, and for a thin secondary like the Chargers have, he's a big help.
Calen Bullock, S, Houston Texans: In the world of NFL safeties, there's a small group of "has true sideline-to-sideline range" and then there's a massive understory of "can play deep middle but probably won't impact plays outside the numbers" options. Four games in, and I think the Texans rookie is in the first, rarefied group. Bullock's long speed was on display on a chase-down effort against Tank Bigsby -- what ended up being a 7-point tackle in a one score game -- but he's getting to deep routes consistently as well. If you can find a true center fielder, it changes your defense, and I think the Texans have one.
From y'all
The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime -- but especially on Monday each week -- to ask a question and potentially get it answered here.
From Alex: "So the Eagles are clearly on a dangerous trajectory. The way I see it there are three major problems with this team: 1) QB carelessness with the football, 2) the head coach, 3) the defense (there are like eight possible subheadings for that one). Of the three, which do you think is the easiest/most realistic to address, and which do you think can't be helped until the offseason? Bonus Q -- final Birds record? Thanks, I'll hang up and listen."
I think the defense is the easiest to be addressed, and that it will be addressed. The coverage issues will likely remain all season, given the questions at linebacker and the current play of Darius Slay Jr., but this front is playing better, especially along the interior. The Eagles won't be an elite defense, but they'll be better than they were for the first month. (It might be time to start force-feeding Cooper DeJean some snaps, though.)
I don't think you'll see the head coach change until the offseason, and I don't think you'll see the quarterback stop turning the ball over anytime soon. Eagles end the season 10-7.
From Jeremy: "I am not sure if this is the right person or mailbag for this question, but I am wondering 1) if Tory Taylor were to win Rookie of the Year, would it be Offensive ROY or Defensive ROY, and 2) is there any legitimate avenue/argument for him to actually win it? If he's by far the best punter in the league his rookie year, no other rookie could make that claim for their respective position."
Jeremy, this is absolutely the right person and absolutely the right mailbag.
I think a punter would win Defensive Rookie of the Year, even though he is technically on the field when his team possesses the football. Punting is generally considered a defensive act -- you are trying to make it harder for the other team to score -- and Taylor obviously does an excellent job of that.
Here's the thing, though: Taylor is getting gassed right now. His long of 66 yards is not even top 10 in the league. The league averages 42.3 net yards per punt, and he's at 42.0. You can't fool me, Bears fans. I have the stats.
From Lucky: "Is the Commanders' early-season success similar to the Kliff Kingsbury's Cardinals early-season success? Is there a chance defenses find something and put up a lot more resistance later in the season?"
Excellent question, Lucky. It's true that Kingsbury's offenses tended to fade late in Arizona. By success rate: 44.9% in September, 46.8% in October, then 43.4% in November and 41.9% in December. There are a few late-season absences of Kyler Murray in that sample, but on film, it was clear defenses started to key in on the tendencies of Kingsbury's approach.
Two reasons for faith in Washington, though. The first is that Kingsbury had a year off, and presumably, he did some good self-scouting during that time. The second is the Commanders aren't a dome team like Arizona, so hopefully playing late-season cold-weather games won't drag down their end-of-year performances as much.
One big reason for concern: As Cam Taylor-Britt told us, this is a college offense. I say that completely and totally without criticism; not a pejorative at all. But it's clearly a college offense by design, structure, screen usage and run-pass option usage. And those offenses tend to lack the depth of NFL offenses over extended periods of time. We saw that with Kingsbury; we saw that with Chip Kelly. It's an uphill battle, for sure.
From James: "Am I a moron, or am I a genius? I've convinced myself that Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders is going to win NFL MVP. I've got myself a $50 ticket that will pay out $2,000 if it hits."
James, I love you man. Thank you so much for reading. You are a moron.
Second Take: The Chiefs are in actual trouble this time
ESPN's "First Take" is known for, well, providing the first take on things -- the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather the spot where I'll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.
For all of last season, I could not be persuaded to doubt the Chiefs. Did I love that their offense was less explosive than it had ever been under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes? Not at all. Were late-season losses to the Eagles, Packers, Bills and Raiders concerning? Absolutely. But I loved that defense, and as long as the offense had Mahomes at the helm, I was confident in the Chiefs' ability to win tight games.
This season, I am extremely willing to doubt the Chiefs.
The knee injury to receiver Rashee Rice is one of the biggest non-quarterback injuries I can remember. The Chiefs' wide receiver room was already widely thin, and their passing game was accordingly siloed. Rice's 37.2% target share was second only to that of Malik Nabers (Giants) in the NFL. The Chiefs were running the offense through Rice, and while they were happy to get an explosive play out of him here and there, the object wasn't chunk gains; it was just moving the sticks. Rice turned 46.9% of his targets into first downs or touchdowns, which is the seventh-best mark of any receiver this season. And through the first three games of the season, Rice had 15 receiving first downs. The next closest Chiefs were Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy with four apiece.
Let's take doomsday a step further. Through the first four weeks, Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco still leads the team in touches with 41 -- and remember, he has played less than two full games this season. Backup Carson Steele is second with 30, but he's averaging 3.8 yards per carry on his 28 rushes and 1.0 yards per reception on his two catches. Rice is third with 25 touches. Of the 194 touches the Chiefs' offense has distributed this season, 66 belong to Pacheco and Rice, the former of whom is out for quite some time (broken fibula) and the latter of whom is potentially out for the year (feared torn ACL but undergoing further testing). The fourth-highest touch getter for the Chiefs right now is Mahomes and his 17 carries.
There is simply nobody on the roster right now who can sustain volume. Kelce surely has a few throwback games in him, but he'll turn 35 later this week and cannot start taking on 10 targets per game. There have been exactly 24 games in NFL history of a 35-year-old tight end getting 10-plus targets, and never have there been more than four in a single season (shoutout to 2012 Tony Gonzalez and 2013 Tony Gonzalez).
Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine and Steele form a largely toothless backfield rotation. Any of those guys scare you in open space? Nope. What about Worthy? He's a field stretcher and gadget-play specialist, and Reid does not sound as if he's planning to funnel a huge chunk of additional targets through the rookie first-round receiver. And Hollywood Brown, the Chiefs' offseason signing, is on injured reserve, out for the season because of a shoulder injury without having played a single snap.
Of course, the solution is obvious: trade for somebody. On "Get Up!" on Monday morning, ESPN's Adam Schefter suggested Browns WR Amari Cooper as a great trade candidate for the Chiefs, and I agree. The Browns restructured his deal this summer to make him extremely tradable, and he still has the juice. I'm sure other receiver names will become more available as we get closer to deadline time, too. (Looking at you, Christian Kirk.)
But I have two hangups. The first is that we should be realistic about the ceiling of midseason additions. The history of the trade deadline shows far more marginal wins than it does franchise-changing moves. Chase Claypool did not succeed with the Bears, nor did Kadarius Toney find his footing with the Chiefs. Of the franchise-altering deals, we find most of them on the defensive side: Jalen Ramsey, Von Miller, Roquan Smith and Montez Sweat to name a few. The only big trade deadline splash to immediately change an offense in recent memory was the Christian McCaffrey deal during the 2022 season. Even as NFL stars increasingly use their leverage midseason and player movement ratchets up accordingly, the usual logic holds true: Most players who are really needle movers are not available for trade at the deadline.
But even if the Chiefs got a big fish on the line, like an Amari Cooper, my second concern would loom. Isn't the whole magic of Rice that he has developed this excellent chemistry with Mahomes, much in the way Kelce has over the past several seasons? Have we not celebrated Mahomes as a unique quarterback because of the way the Chiefs play basketball on grass, spacing the field, creating voids and feeling rather than perfectly executing their passing offense? I am extremely dubious of any receiver's ability to join the Chiefs midseason and immediately take on WR1 volume. That simply is not how Mahomes operates or how this offense is designed.
So the cavalry might come, but I'm not sure reinforcements are enough. The injury bug has bit the Chiefs at the worst time. Their defense is holding their water for now, but this is still the 21st defense by success rate. For as timely as they are on late downs and in the red zone, the Chiefs do not have the talent to win games week over week as the Browns' and Jets' defenses have done in recent years.
And I don't see a clean solution to the Rice absence -- not with Kelce starting to feel his age, not with Pacheco out for at least another month (and probably more) and not with the rest of the receiver room looking as it does at the moment. An aligning of the stars could get this offense ready for playoff time -- Kelce saving himself for a playoff run, Pacheco returning 100% healthy and/or a big hit on a trade acquisition -- but the Chiefs are going to lose a few games in the meantime. Don't look now, but everyone else in that AFC West division is 2-2. It's about to get dicey for Kansas City. I actually mean it.
Next Ben Stats
NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below.
25%: That's the percentage of Brock Purdy's passing yards that have come after the catch this season. It would be the lowest single-season mark since at least 2006 if that holds. The YAC God, Kyle Shanahan, has an offense that doesn't do anything after the catch right now.
It's hard to have yards after the catch when you're getting so many yards before the catch, though. Purdy's 10.4 air yards per attempt is a towering figure, as the 49ers are deploying a more traditional "run-run-shot play" offense in McCaffrey's absence. When McCaffrey was healthy, the 49ers would spread out the field, run some quick-game concepts, and let McCaffrey (and Deebo Samuel Sr. and Kittle) win underneath after the defense got stretched. At least 20% of Purdy's pass attempts came behind the line of scrimmage in his first two years as a pro.
This year, it's 8%. All of the underneath passing has been replaced with a diverse handoff game, which is catered to backup RB Jordan Mason's skill set; he's not much of a pass catcher. Meanwhile, Purdy is connecting on a huge number of deep balls and out-breaking routes to the sideline as his receivers win one-on-ones in isolation. I'm not sure this trend will continue, especially if and when McCaffrey comes back. But for right now, this offense is evolving once more under Shanahan's watchful eye.
131: That's how many rushing yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, the Ravens had against the Bills on Sunday night. It's the ninth-best single-game number since 2018. (Baltimore had 271 total rushing yards.)
Four of the 11 best games by rushing yards over expectation belong to the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. I find myself singing this refrain over and over again during Jackson's MVP seasons, and I was reminded of it again Sunday night: No quarterback -- save for Mahomes -- has a greater field-tilting gravity in the league than Jackson.
Think about what the Ravens do on offense. One of their eligibles is 300-pound fullback Patrick Ricard. They have no true WR1, let alone a primary pass catcher, given the struggles of Mark Andrews early this season. Their offensive line has multiple new starters. This should, by all laws of football and physics, be a bad offense. But with No. 8 on the field, you can get away with things other teams simply cannot. Throw in Derrick Henry and now you can really get away with that singular approach that many defenses, like the Bills, are not prepared to combat.
2.4: That's how many yards per pass attempt Denver quarterback Bo Nix had on Sunday against the Jets. It is the lowest figure in a win since 1965 (minimum 25 pass attempts).
There are too many good stats from the Broncos-Jets game to count. The non-Courtland Sutton receivers for the Broncos had a combined nine catches on 16 targets for 0 total yards. Yes, you read that correctly. Nix also had minus-7 passing yards in the first half, which is the fewest by a quarterback who had actually completed multiple passes in the first half since 1978, which is as far back as our data goes.
This is not good news for the Broncos, who are 2-2 in the most perplexing fashion of any team. What is good news is that the defense is 100% for real. The absence of linebacker Alex Singleton was not felt, as Cody Barton and Justin Strnad played great ball. The defensive line continues to rush as a cohesive unit, too, and the coverage on the back end is suffocating. The Broncos are going to play a lot of close games this season, and if the offense can get to even league-average levels, Denver will be contending for a playoff spot.
4-0: That's what the Packers' record would be if they could make a field goal.
OK, that's not totally true. They would have had the lead late against the Eagles if not for a missed 43-yarder in the second half, but it's still no lock they win that game. It was real against the Vikings, though. A continued lack of trust in Brayden Narveson informed all of the Packers' decision-making down the stretch. After Narveson missed consecutive 37- and 49-yard attempts in the first half, coach Matt LaFleur elected to go for a fourth-and-10 in lieu of a 51-yard field goal attempt and a fourth-and-8 in lieu of a 49-yard attempt. Two missed kicks and then two aborted field goal opportunities in a 2-point loss. That's a tough pill to swallow.
Sometimes kickers are bad; it happens. But it's particularly frustrating to have a bad kicker at this time, when kickers are nailing kicks at historic rates. On kicks of 49 or fewer yards, the league is 169-for-185 (91.4%). The only kickers to have missed multiple attempts under 50 yards are Tyler Bass (two) and Narveson (four).
Monday night multicast
Each week, we will pick out one or two of the biggest storylines from "Monday Night Football" and break down what it means for the rest of the season.
I love island games. Just one broadcast to focus on, watching for trends and making some memes. But a multicast sure is handy when one game becomes Mason Rudolph vs. Tyler Huntley -- especially when that other game is Geno Smith vs. Jared Goff.
What an absolute treat the Seahawks and Lions gave us -- and not just this year but over the years. Their past four meetings (three of which have featured Goff vs. Smith) have produced totals of 80, 93, 68 and 71 points for a combined 312 points. ESPN Research says that only one other head-to-head matchup has produced more total points over a four-game stretch. I can't tell what's more impressive: the 312 points or the fact ESPN Research can find that.
This was the Lions' first win over the Seahawks in the Dan Campbell era, but the story of the night has to be Goff pitching a perfect game. He was 18-for-18 for 292 yards and two touchdown passes. It was a record-setting night: the most pass attempts in a single game without an incompletion (and with 16.2 yards per attempt to boot). I love Goff acting surprised when Lisa Salters asked him about how it felt to go 18-for-18. "Oh, really?" he asked. For sure, man. You didn't know.
You can't tell me Goff and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson weren't well aware of who was calling plays on the other sideline. Mike Macdonald, the first-year coach of the Seahawks, dominated the Lions last year as the defensive coordinator of the Ravens. Detroit scored six points, and it took the Lions over three quarters to do it. A much different story this time, as the 2024 Lions had their first game reminiscent of the 2023 Lions on offense -- dominant from pole to pole.
Two final thoughts on Monday evening: I am still flabbergasted by Mike McDaniel's inability to coach around his backup quarterbacks in Miami, and I am still starry-eyed in the face of what Smith is achieving this season for Seattle.