Each NFL team's offseason is filled with small moves and marginal personnel decisions. Sometimes, that series of small moves will build a winner. But a big, bold move -- like a trade or a high draft pick -- can dramatically improve talent at an important position or change the overall direction of the franchise.
Below, I suggest a bold move for each team to make this offseason. Some of these are realistic and others are more far-fetched, but each would provide a significant change. What should the Bears do with Justin Fields? And which teams should trade for Fields? Which teams should trade their high draft pick for more picks and players? Where should the top free agents sign? Who should fire their head coach? All of these and more are included.
Moves are suggested for each team independently of the moves suggested for other teams, which is why you might see certain players suggested as trade or free agency targets for multiple franchises.
And as always, I use my DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric, which takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. It is explained further here.
Let's get started with the AFC East.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Trade WR Stefon Diggs
Diggs' arrival in Buffalo in 2020 was a big reason Josh Allen took the leap and became an elite NFL quarterback. It was important for him to have a No. 1 receiver to work with. But at age 30, there are questions about whether Diggs is still that kind of No. 1 receiver.
Diggs' 2023 production declined from an average of 89 to 70 yards per game. In advanced stats, he dropped from third to 45th in receiving DVOA among qualified receivers (50 or more targets). Particularly notable was a drop in the average depth of target from 11.2 yards to 10.3 yards. He was still drawing targets like a No. 1 receiver, but he was getting them on shorter routes and doing less with them.
An even bigger warning sign might be his decline in the second half of the season. In Weeks 1-9, Diggs had 14% DVOA with a 72% catch rate and an average depth of target of 11.3 yards. From Week 10 onward, Diggs had minus-21% DVOA with a 59% catch rate but an average depth of target of just 9.7 yards. Usually, shorter passes mean a higher catch rate. Not in Diggs' case and not since the start of November.
The question is what the Bills can get for Diggs. He's probably not going to garner a first-round pick. Teams know his age and that he's in decline. There has never been a receiver who went from over 1,400 yards to under 1,200 yards and back to over 1,400 yards at age 30 or older. The closest was Reggie Wayne in 2010-2012, who went 1,355 to 960 to 1,355 again at the age of 34.
The Bills would have to trade Diggs after June 1 or else he will cost them more on the salary cap. A post-June 1 trade would save them $19 million on the salary cap with $8.8 million in dead money.
Miami Dolphins
Cut K Jason Sanders
A kicker as a bold move? Hear me out. Sanders is one of the top 10 kickers in the league in terms of average salary per year. His 2020 All-Pro season stands out, but he has has hit only 80% of his field goals in the three seasons since. The Dolphins are about $52 million over the cap, and they need cut candidates to whittle that down. That means going past the obvious cuts such as Emmanuel Ogbah and Jerome Baker.
A post-June 1 cut of Sanders would save $3.8 million on the cap with just under $750,000 in dead money. Then the Dolphins can find a kicker near the end of the draft or even on the college free agent market who would command a much smaller contract.
New England Patriots
Draft WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and wait on a QB
The obvious move for the Patriots is to draft a young quarterback, such as Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels (LSU), with the No. 3 overall pick. Analytically, that's the right move. But it's not the boldest move. The boldest move would be to draft the surer thing, the Ohio State receiver, and combine him with a veteran caretaker quarterback available in free agency and then gamble on a lower-round passer.
The perfect caretaker veteran quarterback? Jacoby Brissett -- who was a Patriots third-round draft pick back in 2016. Brissett has made a career of surprisingly reasonable performances, with his best year coming with the 2022 Browns. And who was offensive coordinator of those Browns? None other than new Patriots coordinator Alex Van Pelt!
With Brissett throwing to Harrison, the Patriots can then use a lower-round pick on a passer to develop behind Brissett. Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) might be an option in the second round, or Spencer Rattler (South Carolina) in the third or fourth round.
New York Jets
Fire Robert Saleh and hire Mike Vrabel
The head-coaching carousel has stopped for 2024 and all 32 teams are now set. Or at least, it seems that way. The musical chairs stopped without a place for former Titans coach Mike Vrabel, whose firing was a bit of a surprise.
There are too many good head-coaching candidates on the market and too many last-chance coaches heading into the 2024 season. Why not just make the change now? The Jets could jettison a coach with an 18-33 career record in exchange for a coach who has already had success. Vrabel had winning records in four of his six seasons in Tennessee, including leading the Titans to the No. 1 seed in 2021 despite a myriad of injuries.
Losing Saleh would mean losing his defensive scheme, and that might hurt the Jets' defense that has been top six in DVOA for two straight seasons. But adding Vrabel should help both locker room management and game management. Vrabel might do a better job of managing Aaron Rodgers, and he's a much more analytically sound coach in games. In the past two seasons, Vrabel ranked sixth and ninth in aggressiveness index (reflecting how often he went for fourth downs), while Saleh ranked 21st in 2023 and dead last two years ago.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
Cut OT Ronnie Stanley
Once upon a time, Stanley was a first-team All-Pro, one of the best left tackles in the league. But that was five years ago. Stanley struggled last season for the Ravens, and they rotated him with Patrick Mekari. Stanley hasn't played a full season since that 2019 All-Pro year, and he ranked 38th in pass block win rate (87.2%) among tackles in 2023.
Cutting Stanley before June 1 would save $8.3 million on the salary cap but would leave $17.8 million in dead money for 2024. A post-June 1 cut would save $15 million with $11.2 million in dead money for 2024 and additional dead money in 2025.
There's no clear replacement for Stanley on this roster. Mekari is considered more of a swing tackle, a stellar backup but not a starter capable of protecting Lamar Jackson's blind side for 17 games. But the Ravens are probably going to need to find a replacement for Stanley this offseason, so they might as well get some cap relief while finding a more trustworthy left tackle.
Cincinnati Bengals
Draft a WR in Round 1
It's important for the Bengals' offense to have a trio of quality pass-catchers. Ja'Marr Chase isn't going anywhere, but their other top receivers are free agents. Cincinnati should be able to re-sign Tyler Boyd, or perhaps allow the 29-year-old to leave and replace him with 2023 rookie Andrei Iosivas. The bigger question is what to do about Tee Higgins, a No. 2 receiver who is good enough to be a No. 1 and wants to be paid like one.
There are two options here that involve drafting a wide receiver high in the first round. First, the Bengals could place the franchise tag on Higgins, letting their new receiver learn from the veterans for a year before Higgins leaves in 2025 and the new receiver takes his place. Or, given how successful most first-round receivers have been as rookies, the Bengals could allow Higgins to leave this offseason and replace him with the youngster.
Receivers available when the Bengals pick at No. 18 should include LSU's Brian Thomas Jr., Oregon's Troy Franklin and Michigan's Roman Wilson.
Cleveland Browns
Bring in competition for QB Deshaun Watson
It's pretty simple: The Watson trade has not worked out. The Browns' offense has been much, much better with other quarterbacks over the past two seasons. In 2022, Brissett had a 62.0 QBR while Watson had 40.4 QBR. Then last season, Joe Flacco had 48.3 QBR while Watson was below him at 42.9 QBR.
The Browns need to bring in competition and a backup plan in case Watson starts off 2024 playing subpar football again. They can go one of two ways with this: Use a second- or third-round pick on a young quarterback and let that player compete with Watson in camp, or bring back one of the veteran quarterbacks they've already had success with.
Flacco has expressed a desire to continue his career despite his age (39), and Browns fans would be happy to see him back. Brissett's 2022 numbers stand out when we look at his career, but the Browns might as well sign him to a cheaper deal and see if they can make the magic happen again. Any of these options would at least protect the Browns and keep them from wasting another strong defense with bad play from Watson.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Trade for QB Justin Fields
It's likely the Bears will draft a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick, and it's very likely they will trade Fields. Will he be an upgrade at quarterback for some teams? Maybe.
Fields did have a higher QBR than Kenny Pickett last season, 46.1 to 38.2, but that's primarily because of his rushing ability. As a passer, Fields just hasn't developed much in three years. His highlight plays are interspersed with too many run-of-the-mill failures, and he takes too many sacks. But the issue here is upside. Fields still has more upside than a lot of other young quarterbacks. If you could develop his passing, you would have a good NFL starter. And Fields' scrambling ability would be particularly important behind a Pittsburgh line that ranked just 17th in pass block win rate (57.6%) in 2023.
The problem with Fields is that you must decide immediately whether to extend him with a fifth-year option, and if he does develop, in two years you need to sign him to a big contract. But still, that upside is enticing. Pickett doesn't have the same panache.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
Trade for OLB Khalil Mack
Mack, who just turned 33, had 17 sacks last season for the Chargers and he would come with a huge contract. He has a $38.5 million cap number, and the Chargers are nearly $46 million over the cap for 2024. Trading Mack before June 1 would save them over $23 million in cap space.
The Texans, on the other hand, have $57 million in cap space. They also have the space to bring Mack in with starting edge rusher Jonathan Greenard hitting free agency. Imagine Mack playing opposite Will Anderson Jr., with opponents able to double-team only one of them. It probably wouldn't cost the Texans a very high draft pick while bringing a big addition to their defense.
Indianapolis Colts
Go big in the secondary
The Colts need to improve their defense. They ranked 20th in defensive DVOA and 25th in weighted defense in 2023, which means they played worse in the second half of the season. An excellent place to start that improvement would be the secondary.
The Colts need to start by locking up the best defensive back on the team, nickel slot corner Kenny Moore II, who hits free agency this offseason. He's a huge reason the Colts ranked third in DVOA covering slot wide receivers, as opposed to 25th covering outside wideouts. Moore was also second among all cornerbacks with 43 combined run tackles, and he made the average tackle after a gain of just 2.9 yards.
Then the Colts need to bring in some other teams' free agents. With $59 million in cap space, they have room to spend. It looks like the Colts are ready to hand the free safety job to Nick Cross after two years as a backup.
So, let's spend some money on a strong safety. Kyle Dugger of the Patriots is a promising young star, or the Colts could go after Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (Lions) or Chuck Clark (coming off an injury for the Jets). Then, the Colts should get themselves a veteran cornerback to play opposite the young JuJu Brents. Jaylon Johnson of the Bears led all corners in my cornerback coverage DVOA, and if the Bears can't re-sign him, a big contract will reel him in for the Colts.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Take playcalling duties away from OC Press Taylor
Taylor has been working for Doug Pederson since their days with the Eagles, and Pederson publicly gave Taylor his support after the season ended with the Jaguars missing the playoffs after starting 8-3. It's unlikely Pederson would cut Taylor off at the knees by taking the playcalling away from him.
But perhaps he should. The Jaguars ranked 14th in pass offense DVOA last season after ranking eighth with Pederson calling the plays in 2022. A team with Trevor Lawrence really should not be around the league average when it comes to passing the ball. The run offense DVOA also declined, going from 22nd to 26th. Pederson was hired in part because of his abilities as a playcaller -- and he needs to be using those abilities.
There's no question injuries played a part in Jacksonville's offensive decline, and Lawrence is responsible for many of his own turnovers. Still, it's more important for the Jaguars to win games than for Pederson to help his protégés build up better résumés by giving them the playcalling duties.
Sure, this probably won't happen -- but it would be bold.
Tennessee Titans
Sign WR Tyler Boyd
The Titans are set on the outside with DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks, but they need an upgrade in the slot. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had a surprisingly good receiving DVOA this past season, 9% over average, but doesn't have a standout career so far. He's a free agent and could leave Tennessee. Kyle Philips has struggled with injuries and has played 13 games in two seasons since the Titans drafted him in the fifth round of the 2022 draft. The Titans can do better.
A big addition would be Boyd from the Bengals. He did not have an efficient year in 2023, but it was just two years ago that Boyd ranked second in DVOA among all receivers with at least 50 targets. He had at least 750 receiving yards in five straight years from 2018 to 2022 and would be a strong target underneath while Hopkins and Burks draw the defense's attention.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Trade WR Jerry Jeudy
Jeudy has not lived up to his first-round draft status. Jeudy's best season was 2022, when he had six touchdowns and nearly 1,000 yards, but that's his only standout season in my advanced stats. He ranked 17th in receiving value by DYAR that season. He was 57th in 2023 and 66th and 86th in his other two seasons.
Jeudy might be attractive to a team that thinks it is close to a title and just needs an upgrade at wide receiver. The Broncos could get some draft value for Jeudy before losing him to free agency in 2025. His role in the offense could go to youngster Marvin Mims Jr., a returning Tim Patrick or a free agent who could be signed with a cheaper contract.
Kansas City Chiefs
Sign WR Mike Evans and draft a WR at No. 32
It's hard to critique the team that just won a second straight Super Bowl, but we all know that the Chiefs' wide receivers were a disappointment. That's the clear area where Kansas City can improve as it attempts to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls.
Start with the best player on the market -- and he just happens to have a ring of his own already. Yes, Evans will be 31 years old this year, but he's still playing at a high level. Evans ranked 23rd in DVOA among qualifying wide receivers last season and has 10 straight years with at least 1,000 receiving yards. And he's money in the red zone, with 13 touchdowns last season. Imagine Patrick Mahomes throwing to Evans on one side with Rashee Rice on the other side and Travis Kelce in the middle. It's enough for Chiefs Kingdom to already start planning another celebration.
And what to do about Evans' age? Well, start preparing for the inevitable by using that No. 32 pick on another wide receiver who can gradually step in over the next couple of years. Florida State's Keon Coleman has similar size and would make a perfect heir apparent to Evans.
Las Vegas Raiders
Trade WR Davante Adams and the No. 13 pick for the No. 4 pick and draft Marvin Harrison Jr.
Is Adams happy in Las Vegas? He says yes, but his role could change with a new coaching staff. It might make sense for the Raiders to move on from Adams and his big contract now that he's turning 32 this year.
So how about trying to replace Adams with coveted WR Harrison? A big trade up the draft board would help the Cardinals improve their receiving corps with Adams while also giving them the 13th overall pick to improve their league-worst defense from 2023. The Raiders would get perhaps the best receiving prospect in years at a rookie-contract salary.
Los Angeles Chargers
Trade OLB Joey Bosa
The idea seems wild. Why would you deal a star pass-rusher still at the top of his game? The answer is that the Chargers are secretly in a bit of a rebuild for 2024. The team is $45.8 million over the cap and will likely have to jettison important veterans such as wide receiver Mike Williams. New coach Jim Harbaugh might want to compete with his new team right away, but it makes more sense to take a year and build something great for the future.
So, deal Bosa and get a big package of draft picks in return. There are plenty of teams in the NFL that could use a top pass-rusher. For starters, look at contenders who did not do well in pass rush win rate last season. The Packers were 19th (40%), the Chiefs were 20th (39.7%) and the Lions were just 27th (35.8%). Imagine Bosa lining up across from Aidan Hutchinson on every passing down as the Lions seek to repeat as NFC North champions.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Cut WR Michael Gallup
Gallup has never quite come back from the ACL injury he suffered near the end of the 2021 season. Last season, he was the clear third among the Cowboys' main receivers. He ranked 59th in receiving DYAR out of 81 qualifying receivers. By comparison, CeeDee Lamb was third and Brandin Cooks was 28th after coming on strong in the second half of the season.
A regular cut of Gallup would leave a ton of dead money on the Cowboys' cap. But a post-June 1 cut would give the Cowboys $9.5 million in extra cap space with $4.4 million in dead money. That extra cap space would help the Cowboys, who are currently $20 million over the cap for 2024.
New York Giants
Extend WR Darius Slayton
We don't think of Slayton as one of the league's better receivers. In fact, most fans don't think of him at all. However, Slayton has put up strong advanced metrics for the past two seasons. He ranked 26th in DVOA among qualified wide receivers in 2023, the only Giants wide receiver with a positive rating. In 2022, he was even better, 16th in DVOA among qualified wide receivers.
Yet Slayton's standard stat totals are not so impressive because of the poor offense around him. This year, he had 770 yards and only four touchdowns. In 2022, he had 724 yards and only two touchdowns. The disconnect between Slayton's real value and the public perception might allow the Giants to extend him for a low price. Slayton would be an excellent No. 2 field-stretcher if New York could ever find a No. 1 wide receiver. A Slayton extension this offseason would also save the Giants $3.5 million on the salary cap.
Philadelphia Eagles
Cut S Kevin Byard and sign a young safety
Byard was an interesting midseason addition for the Eagles but ultimately wasn't much help as Philadelphia crumbled down the stretch. He's a good player, but he also can be used to get the Eagles some salary cap space. Cutting Byard would save the Eagles $13 million on the cap with only $1.4 million in dead money this year.
How to replace Byard? Well, it's a strong year for safeties on the free agent market, especially safeties who are still in their primes. Possible candidates for the Eagles include Antoine Winfield Jr. (26, Buccaneers); Xavier McKinney (25, Giants); and Kyle Dugger (28, Patriots).
Washington Commanders
Trade down from No. 2 pick
The Commanders need a quarterback. There are a couple of top quarterback prospects in this draft class. Therefore, the obvious move is for the Commanders to use the No. 2 pick on a quarterback. However, that's not the bold move. The bold move would be to trade down and accumulate more picks they can use to rebuild their whole roster.
Let's start with the easy trade down: one spot to No. 3 with the Patriots. We all want to believe that we can properly rank the best quarterback prospects, but we certainly learned from the 2023 season that the higher-rated quarterback going into the draft doesn't necessarily turn into the better quarterback in the NFL. So, if New England loves Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels, trade the Patriots the No. 2 pick, get a couple of lower-round picks and just use the No. 3 pick on whichever quarterback the Pats don't want.
Or, go bolder and trade down even further. There are several teams that need quarterbacks this year. Call up Denver, Atlanta or Pittsburgh. See what's the biggest package the Commanders can get for that No. 2 selection, with multiple picks both this year and next year to fill multiple holes. Washington can then use a lower pick that it gets back in trade and take a young quarterback who might not be the highest of the top prospects but could still compete with Sam Howell for the 2024 starting job.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
Draft QB Caleb Williams and keep QB Justin Fields
At this point, the debate among Chicago fans seems to be whether the Bears should draft Williams with the No. 1 overall pick and trade Fields for lower picks or keep Fields and trade the No. 1 pick for a huge haul of picks and players. But when deciding between Williams and Fields, we ask, why not both?
ESPN's Adam Schefter has pointed this out as a possibility for the Bears. The idea would be that the Bears are in a good enough position across the roster that they wouldn't want to take a chance with a rookie quarterback who could be great (playing like C.J. Stroud) but also could be terrible (playing like Bryce Young).
The Bears might have finished the season 7-10 but they were 11th in weighted DVOA, which gives more strength to recent games and lowers the importance of the early season. In particular, the Bears were eighth in weighted defensive DVOA. This could be the defense of a playoff team, and perhaps they want to go with the known (Fields) instead of the unknown in the hope it makes a playoff appearance more likely.
If Fields struggles in his fourth season, Williams will be there to come off the bench. If Fields plays well, the Bears can trade him for draft picks after the season. (This would require accepting Fields' fifth-year option for 2025, but let's assume they do that as part of this bold move.)
The Bears could even start Fields for two more years if he's unexpectedly great in 2024, and then get a compensatory pick when Fields leaves in free agency. No matter the choice, the Bears will eventually get value for Fields. They would just give themselves more options in the short term by having both quarterbacks on the roster.
Detroit Lions
Sign DT Chris Jones
The Lions are in great position this offseason as a division champion that also has cap space to improve. As a result the Lions will probably be tied to every major free agent who's available, especially on defense. There will be talk about a lot of veterans joining the Lions to try to break the curse and get them to the Super Bowl. But the best choice would be a player who already has won three of them: Jones of the Chiefs.
Jones ranked second in pass rush win rate (19.6%) among defensive tackles despite facing a higher rate of double-teams than anybody else in the top 20. Meanwhile, the Lions were just 27th in pass rush win rate (35.8%) and could use some help to take attention away from edge rusher Hutchinson.
The Lions could sign Jones and plug him right in as the 3-technique tackle with Levi Onwuzurike coming off the bench. Jones played a very high 73% of snaps in games where he was active last season, but everybody needs a breather every so often.
Green Bay Packers
Make waves at safety
The Packers' top three safeties from last season are all free agents: Darnell Savage, Rudy Ford and Jonathan Owens. That leaves just rookie seventh-round pick Anthony Johnson and a couple of stragglers who rarely played. This presents the perfect opportunity for the Packers to refresh the position with young free agents who can hold down things on defense for the next few years. The best addition would be 26-year-old Antoine Winfield Jr. if Tampa Bay somehow lets him leave, but other candidates include Xavier McKinney (25, Giants), Kyle Dugger (28, Patriots) and Jordan Whitehead (27, Jets).
Minnesota Vikings
Trade WR Justin Jefferson and reset
This would truly be a bold move because Jefferson is a great receiver. This suggestion is not to belittle Jefferson's abilities. He has ranked in the top 12 for wide receiver DVOA in all four of his NFL seasons, and he was in the top three for total value in his three healthy seasons (i.e. not 2023).
However, Jefferson's salary just ballooned to $19.7 million because of his fifth-year option in 2024, and it's going to be higher than that if the Vikings can sign him to a long-term extension. He is also making noise that he wants to know the team's future quarterback plans before he signs that extension. He probably wants Kirk Cousins back. Cousins had one of his best half-seasons in 2023, but giving him another long-term deal at age 35 might not be the best decision for Minnesota's future.
So why not just go for a total reset? Trade Jefferson for a couple of high draft picks. Use one of them to draft his replacement, the same way the Vikings traded away Stefon Diggs and used the pick they got in return to draft Jefferson. Perhaps that pick can be used on a young quarterback, or to trade up for a better young quarterback.
Meanwhile, shaving Cousins and Jefferson off the team's salary ledger will allow the Vikings to sign a number of free agents to improve other positions, building a team that's ready to compete once they figure out their quarterback situation (presumably with a youngster in either 2024 or 2025).
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Trade for QB Fields
This one is a little obvious, as a lot of analysts are "shipping" the Falcons and Fields together. Atlanta has the same issues with Desmond Ridder that the Steelers have with Pickett.
Fields had a higher QBR than Ridder last season, but it was close, 46.1 to 40.0. Fields still isn't great as a passer and takes too many sacks, but there's upside that Ridder simply does not have. Zac Robinson is a promising young offensive coordinator, and you wonder what Fields could do in a Sean McVay-inspired offensive scheme.
The problem with Fields is that you must decide immediately whether to extend him with a fifth-year option, and if he does develop, in two years you need to sign him to a big contract.
Carolina Panthers
Sign the best available WR
Young quarterbacks need a top receiver to help them develop. The Bears knew this when they asked for DJ Moore in last year's trade with the Panthers. Now the Panthers need to find a receiver to serve as Bryce Young's top target. It's hard to determine just how good or bad Young is without giving him more talent to throw the ball to.
We don't quite know who the best available wide receivers will be because of franchise tags, but someone like Higgins or Michael Pittman Jr. would be a huge addition to the Panthers' offense, and they should have the cap space to make that contract work.
New Orleans Saints
Trade CB Marshon Lattimore
Like Groundhog Day, the Saints are up against the wall once again. Over The Cap has them $83.7 million over the 2024 cap. Once again, there will need to be a series of cuts and restructures to make it just so the Saints can sign their rookie draft class. One controversial way to get some space might be to move cornerback Lattimore to another team.
Lattimore is still playing well -- when he plays. He had a minus-23% coverage DVOA in 2023, which ranked 17th among corners with at least 300 coverage snaps. However, Lattimore (who turns 28 in May) has dealt with injuries and played only 17 games over the past two seasons.
The Saints gave Lattimore an unusual contract restructure that makes a trade much more possible, converting most of his salary into an option bonus that will be paid in early September. Thus, the option would be paid by Lattimore's new team, not by the Saints in dead money.
Lattimore would still have a $30.4 million dead money hit if he's traded before the draft (i.e. for 2024 draft picks) but the Saints could also wait, trade him after June 1 and have just $13.4 million in dead money this year with $20.8 million in 2025. The Saints could then draft a young cornerback or perhaps move Alontae Taylor back to the outside.
It's painful, but there's no way for the Saints to avoid some cap pain this offseason. Depending on what happens in free agency, teams interested in Lattimore would likely include the Colts, the Lions and the Titans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Trade for QB Fields
What's good for the goose is good for the gander -- or rather, what's good for the Falcons is good for the Buccaneers. Sure, Tampa Bay could bring Baker Mayfield back at quarterback for a reasonable price. Last season, Mayfield had his best season since his rookie campaign in 2018. But how much do you trust that Mayfield will be able to repeat that season in 2024, especially if Evans departs in free agency? And do the Bucs feel like they're ready to build around Mayfield for the future?
Instead, what if the Buccaneers went with the player who still has the higher ceiling but also the higher floor? Trade for Fields and see if you can put him in a situation to succeed, just as you did with Mayfield last season. If you can unlock the talent, there's so much promise for the future. If you can't unlock the talent, well, you were probably going to need to get a new quarterback after a couple of years of Mayfield anyway.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Trade down in Round 1 to rebuild the defense
A lot of mock drafts have the Cardinals selecting Harrison at No. 4 overall, based on the idea that the top three teams will likely draft quarterbacks. It makes a lot of sense when you look at the Cardinals' roster, especially if Marquise Brown leaves in free agency. But the bolder move is to trade down, add more draft picks and do more to rebuild the defense.
Analysis of past drafts makes it clear that while the fourth overall pick is more likely to be a star than the players drafted later in the first round, the combined value of later-round picks in a draft trade is often higher than the value of a first-round pick that is given up.
The Cardinals already have two first-round picks thanks to last year's trade with Houston, and perhaps they could flip the fourth overall pick for either two first-round picks or a first-round pick and a second-round pick plus some future picks. With the extra picks, the Cardinals could completely rebuild their defense, which ranked dead last in the NFL in DVOA this past season. The Cardinals could use an edge rusher, an interior lineman and a cornerback. By dealing the fourth overall pick, they could probably grab all three in the first two rounds.
Los Angeles Rams
Use their first-round pick
That's it. That's the bold move. The Rams have not actually used a first-round pick since Jared Goff in 2016. This would be a great place to add to an offensive line that might lose two starters in free agency, perhaps by drafting a tackle prospect who could play inside at first and then move outside after a couple of years. Possibilities include Alabama's JC Latham, Oregon State's Taliese Fuaga and Oklahoma's Tyler Guyton.
San Francisco 49ers
Rebuild the offensive line
When it comes to the 49ers' roster, the O-line is the biggest problem. The 49ers had the best offense in the league despite ranking just 20th in pass block win rate (55.6%) and 23rd in run block win rate (70%). They had those rankings despite the presence of Trent Williams at left tackle. The pressure on Brock Purdy caused problems in the Super Bowl, particularly forcing him to throw the ball away repeatedly on important third downs.
No player on this line should be safe from change other than Williams. Right guard Jon Feliciano is a free agent, so that's the clearest place where the 49ers can upgrade. But right tackle Colton McKivitz ranked 50th among qualifying tackles in pass block win rate (85.3%), while Jake Brendel was 25th (91.4%) among centers. Through some combination of draft picks and free agents, the 49ers need to bolster the pass protection.
The perfect draft pick might be someone similar to former player Logan Mankins, who was considered a reach when the Patriots took him in the first round of the 2005 draft. Yes, teams don't normally want to take a guard or center in the first round, but the Patriots picked a player who made six Pro Bowls for them at a position where they had a need on a roster that didn't have a lot of other holes. That's the 49ers' roster right now.
Seattle Seahawks
Draft a QB in Round 1
Do the Seahawks want to prove this is a new age and the Pete Carroll era is over? Draft a quarterback in Round 1! Since the Russell Wilson selection in 2012, the Seahawks have drafted only one quarterback: seventh-rounder Alex McGough in 2018. Geno Smith has been much better than anyone expected, but it is time to start a long-term plan at the game's most important position.
The No. 16 selection might be too early to dip into the next level of young quarterbacks after the top three, so it would be even better for the Seahawks to trade back a little bit, get some extra draft capital and still land a young quarterback they can groom behind Smith. Perhaps they can stay local with Washington's Penix Jr.