For a second year in a row, the Chicago Bears hold the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. It sets up one of the biggest decisions leaguewide this offseason: Should Chicago trade the pick and stick with quarterback Justin Fields, or trade Fields and draft USC's Caleb Williams (or another top QB prospect) to take over under center?
It's a tough call, especially considering what Chicago could land in a deal. Last spring, the Bears ultimately dealt the top selection to the Carolina Panthers, acquiring a plethora of draft picks and a true No. 1 receiver in DJ Moore. One of those picks was the Panthers' 2024 first-rounder, which ended up becoming this year's first overall selection after Carolina's 2-15 season. And while scouts loved Bryce Young -- who went No. 1 in 2023 -- Williams is getting "generational prospect" buzz, further complicating the decision. He could potentially change the Bears' trajectory. But Fields has also flashed, and considering the Bears went 7-10 last season, they could use more draft picks to keep building their roster.
The top selection has been dealt 13 times since 1967, and at least five teams currently slotted in the top half of Round 1 need a new signal-caller. Will a team fall in love with Williams, North Carolina's Drake Maye or LSU's Jayden Daniels and offer Chicago a package too good to turn down? Or will it be Fields on the move as an upside play, while the Bears change course on offense?
With the help of people in the NFL, draft analyst Field Yates came up with three hypothetical offers for the top pick and three hypothetical offers for Fields. Bears reporter Courtney Cronin then weighed in on each from Chicago's perspective and ultimately made the call on which scenario would make the most sense. What could the Bears really get in return for the No. 1 pick or Fields, and which avenue is the better path?
Jump to:
Working through the decision
Offers for No. 1 overall
Offers for Fields
What the Bears most likely do


Why the Bears have a huge decision ahead
Cronin: Simply put, the Bears are preparing for their most important offseason in decades. In 2023, they went from a 2-7 start to finish 7-10, and tangible progress was felt inside and outside Halas Hall. That growth is the main reason the Bears opted to stick with coach Matt Eberflus but chose to restructure the majority of the offensive staff ahead of a pivotal third year in the franchise's rebuild.
"We're making strong progress," general manager Ryan Poles said in January. "We're doing it the right way. It's built on a solid foundation. It's not a house of cards."
But now the Bears' offseason to-do list starts at quarterback. Chicago is the first team of the common draft era (since 1967) to earn the No. 1 overall pick one year after trading it. The team passed up Young and eventual Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud last year -- can it really afford to trade the draft's top selection again and miss out on Williams? It's a question the Bears will continue to pore over for months, weighing the top prospect against Fields, a 24-year-old passer entering his fourth season. Fields was 23rd in QBR last season (46.1), and he threw nine interceptions over 13 games. He has 40 touchdown passes and 30 interceptions since getting drafted at No. 11 in 2021. Williams, meanwhile, has thrown 93 touchdown passes and 14 picks over three college seasons (two at USC, one at Oklahoma).
Plenty of Fields' teammates have made their cases for sticking with him. We've heard team president and CEO Kevin Warren offer support of Fields, noting he's "glad he's on the Chicago Bears" and that the quarterback "just needs to make sure he has the support around him." And during his season-ending news conference, Poles praised Fields for getting better last season, stating his belief in as a leader. But Poles also mentioned the "unique" situation that Chicago faces, with pick Nos. 1 and 9 this year -- the first time in 21 years that the Bears have two first-rounders.

Potential offers for the No. 1 overall pick

Washington Commanders
Yates' trade package: No. 2 pick, 2024 second-round pick (No. 40), 2025 first-round pick
Poles knows the only reason Washington would move up from No. 2 would be if it is enamored by one specific quarterback prospect in this class. And it would create a natural tax that Washington must then pay. Now, I'm dubious that new Commanders GM Adam Peters (and new coach Dan Quinn) would want to pay this price, especially because I see three excellent quarterbacks available. Washington could easily stay put and take Maye or Daniels at No. 2. So Washington would have to see Williams not only as the best prospect in this year's class but also the kind that seldom comes around. But if the Commanders fall in love with Williams' game, it's a possible move.
It's also worth noting that they hired Kliff Kingsbury as their offensive coordinator; he spent the 2023 season on USC's staff working with Williams. I would describe this offer as "the cost of doing business" for a team that had 21 interceptions (tied for second most, all from Sam Howell) and 6.6 yards per attempt (seventh lowest) last season.
One more note: The second-rounder here would be Washington's later pick. The Commanders have the No. 36 selection and the No. 40 selection, which actually came to Washington via the Montez Sweat trade deadline deal. Here, the Commanders would be sending it back to Chicago.
Cronin's Bears spin: We keep hearing the Bears would need "historic" draft compensation to move off the No. 1 pick. To me, the dream scenario would be in line with the haul the Dolphins got in 2021 from the 49ers, who moved up from No. 12 to No. 3 to take QB Trey Lance. Miami picked up three first-round picks and a third-rounder.
I know the Commanders would be moving up only one spot, but given the perception that Williams is in a tier of his own compared to the other QBs in this stacked draft class, I think they would have to either come to the table with more draft capital or add a player like WR Terry McLaurin in the package for Chicago to be swayed. If the Bears move back to No. 2, they would also need to be enamored by Maye or Daniels.

New England Patriots
Yates' trade package: No. 3 pick, 2024 second-round pick (No. 34), 2025 first-round pick
In the 2021 draft, the Patriots stayed patient and landed Mac Jones as the fifth quarterback off the board. But after two straight lackluster seasons from Jones, it's time for a reset. Much like the Washington offer, this would have to be motivated by New England not wanting to settle for the class' QB3.
The price to move to No. 1 is slightly steeper than the hypothetical Commanders offer because the Bears would of course be moving one spot further back. Whereas the Commanders' included second-rounder is No. 40, the Patriots would be giving up the No. 34 selection. It's a pretty big package, and the Pats would have to really like Williams -- or at least heavily prefer two of the signal-callers to the third one. But New England also needs stability under center as coach Jerod Mayo takes over, and it might not be happy to just land any of the top three guys.
Cronin's Bears spin: It's a new day for the New England front office, so I'd be asking for more from director of player personnel/de-facto GM Eliot Wolf if the Pats wanted to jump to No. 1. The early second-rounder at No. 34 could be a path to a top wide receiver -- maybe FSU's Keon Coleman -- but the Bears could also land Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 3 if they opted to bypass the QB group.
As was the case with Washington's offer, the pot would need to be sweetened by New England with an additional draft pick. The Patriots probably won't want to give up their first three, so I'm thinking at least a 2025 second-rounder has to be added to this offer, if not an NFL player. New England's most intriguing players -- such as tight end Hunter Henry and offensive tackle Trent Brown -- are pending free agents, though.

Atlanta Falcons
Yates' trade package: No. 8 pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2025 second-round pick, 2026 first-round pick, 2026 second-round pick
This deal is similar to the one Chicago received last year from Carolina, which makes sense because the Bears would be moving back to No. 8 here and moved back to No. 9 in that 2023 trade. Atlanta would be motivated by the idea that the team is a quarterback away from making a leap in the winnable NFC South. It was the NFL's weakest division last season, with its four teams combining for 27 wins, five fewer than any other division.
If new coach Raheem Morris is lukewarm on the free agent or trade options, the Falcons could make a big plunge. Surrounding Williams with receiver Drake London, running back Bijan Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts could form a really exciting offense.
Cronin's Bears spin: The Bears would have back-to-back first-rounders at Nos. 8 and 9, and they could use one of those picks on the top edge rusher available (because Atlanta won't be there to take one at No. 8 when a run could start at the position). I could see Chicago then trading back from No. 9 and adding an interior offensive lineman or receiver later in Round 1.
This trade offer also presents Chicago with an opportunity to stick with Fields in 2024 (and pick up his fifth-year option in May) and draft a QB somewhere in the first round who can sit for a year and develop. The additional first- and second-round picks in both 2025 and 2026 make this trade an intriguing option if Chicago is confident in Fields this season.

Potential offers for Fields

Pittsburgh Steelers
Yates' trade package: 2024 second-round pick (No. 51), 2024 fourth-round pick
While coach Mike Tomlin recently pledged support for quarterback Kenny Pickett, who was a 2022 first-round pick, I would not be going out on a limb by proclaiming the Steelers need to consider other options. Fields would provide a dynamic dimension to the Steelers' offense, and I'd be pursuing this aggressively if I were Pittsburgh. The Steelers ranked outside the top 20 in completion percentage (63.8%), touchdown passes (13), yards per attempt (6.8) and QBR (41.6) last season.
Cronin's Bears spin: When gathering reporting on potential trade offers for Fields two months ago, several sources around the NFL suggested something similar to this Pittsburgh package. The Bears could fill their pick void in the second round and add a third fourth-rounder.
Last year, we saw Poles trade up early in the fourth round (using 2023 fourth- and fifth-round picks) to land Roschon Johnson, who projects to eventually start at running back. Having an additional fourth-rounder would allow Poles the flexibility to package picks and move around the draft board like he did three times in 2023 and four times on Day 3 alone in 2022.

Atlanta Falcons
Yates' trade package: 2024 second-round pick (No. 43)
Atlanta is the only team we're mentioning as a contender for both options. That speaks to the desperate need of a quarterback upgrade, but considering a move from No. 8 to No. 1 in the draft would come at a massive cost, dealing for Fields might be the more attractive path. Fields played his high school football at nearby Harrison High School in Kennesaw, Georgia, and began his college career at the University of Georgia.
The Falcons would have contract control through at least 2025 -- Fields has a fifth-year option that can be picked up for 2025 -- and their exciting offensive playmakers would make this move a little more compelling.
Cronin's Bears spin: Like the Pittsburgh deal, Chicago would fill its void in the second round, picking just three spots behind where it was initially slated (the No. 40 pick went to Washington for Sweat). But unlike the Pittsburgh deal, Atlanta isn't offering a fourth-rounder, and drafting eight spots higher in Round 2 might not be worth losing an additional Day 3 pick.
Fields is an upgrade from Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder for the Falcons, and the offer for him should reflect that. But if there aren't many suitors in the Fields trade market, Atlanta might be able to get away with proposing only its second-rounder.

Las Vegas Raiders
Yates' trade package: 2024 third-round pick, WR Hunter Renfrow
A more straightforward offer of the Raiders' second-rounder (No. 44) was there for the taking, but let's have a little more fun. The Raiders are in clear need of a quarterback -- Jimmy Garoppolo was benched during the season, and Aidan O'Connell hasn't shown enough to be the only option under center for coach Antonio Pierce -- but their QB choices in the first round at No. 13 might be limited. Fields would give Las Vegas some stability.
And while Renfrow is likely otherwise a cap casualty for Las Vegas, he posted 103 catches and 1,038 yards in 2021, and could help Chicago on offense. The Bears' leader in slot receiver snaps last season was Darnell Mooney, a soon-to-be free agent. As part of the deal, I'd suggest a renegotiated contract for Renfrow. Let's say one year and up to $7 million with incentives (including $3 million guaranteed).
After the Raiders hired Luke Getsy (formerly the Bears' offensive coordinator) as their offensive coordinator, no other team has a better snapshot of what Fields brings than the Raiders. Getsy's opinion surely would influence the viability of a deal like this getting done.
Cronin's Bears spin: I'm not convinced a reunion of Fields and Getsy is realistic, and the fact that many of Fields' shortcomings ultimately fall on the OC who was tasked with developing him might make this a nonstarter. Heck, the Raiders hiring Getsy after he was fired by Chicago would lead you to believe that the organization sees Fields as the issue, rather than their new offensive coordinator. But even aside from that, the Bears still don't come away with a second-round pick in this scenario, unlike the offers from Pittsburgh and Atlanta.
Additionally, Renfrow's past two seasons have been similar in production to what Chicago has gotten from Mooney. The additional $21.5 million that the Bears just earned in cap savings by releasing Eddie Jackson and Cody Whitehair gives Chicago an estimated $55 million in effective cap space to upgrade at wide receiver in free agency, which includes the likes of Tee Higgins, Mike Evans and Michael Pittman Jr.


The Bears' most likely decision
Cronin: The Bears have built great teams in the past that have lacked the quarterback play needed to get far in the postseason. Poles knows from his experience in Kansas City that drafting the right quarterback can be all the difference for the trajectory of a franchise. The opportunity to alter the Bears' trajectory begins with his decision here, and while Fields has shown improvement in 38 starts, he still finished the 2023 season ranked in the bottom-third in nearly every passing category.
The Bears might love Fields' leadership and the flashes he has shown since this regime took over two years ago, but as one NFL general manager made clear to me, the lack of clarity around whether Fields is the long-term option in Chicago is all the clarity the Bears need to make their decision. They have to use the No. 1 overall pick on a quarterback and draft Williams this April.
As intriguing as the Falcons' offer for the No. 1 overall pick is, I wonder if Atlanta would be ready to mortgage its future to move up the draft board in such a deal. So based on the opportunity Chicago has to build a team around the top rookie QB in the draft, the Bears should take the most draft capital they can get in an offer for Fields. Looking at the offers here, that means accepting the Steelers' offer of second- and fourth-round picks in exchange for the 24-year-old quarterback.