Russell Wilson's Hall of Fame trek took a Mile High detour over the past two years with the Denver Broncos, casting a pall over the 35-year-old's NFL future.
But he might get what he's never had in 12 seasons: The chance to become an NFL free agent.
Wilson's five-year, $242.6 million contract -- which he signed before the 2022 season and runs through 2028 -- has hung over the Broncos franchise, and both parties appear headed toward a boiling point.
Week 17 set the stage: Broncos coach Sean Payton benched Wilson for Jarrett Stidham, and Wilson told reporters that the team approached him earlier in the year about his $37 million injury guarantee (his 2025 salary) that would trigger if he could not pass a physical by the fifth day of the 2024 new league year. Sources say the Broncos asked Wilson to defer the guarantee by one year.
Wilson also told reporters that the Broncos threatened to bench him for the rest of the season if he declined. He did, then notified the NFLPA, which took a grievance to the NFL management council.
With $39 million already guaranteed for 2024 whether Wilson is on the team or not, the Broncos have been forced to look at the big-picture ramifications of the deal -- and Wilson's place in that picture.
That $37 million of 2025 money becomes guaranteed in full on March 17, leaving Denver with a decision on whether to cut Wilson, absorbing an enormous dead cap hit but escaping the contract -- eventually.
They could always ask Wilson to return for next season, but most around the league agree that's unlikely. An outright release gives Wilson the chance to sign wherever he wants, deepening the intrigue for an already star-studded free agency class.
ESPN spoke to several league executives and sources about the Wilson dynamic in Denver, where both sides go from here, and where Wilson might end up.
How Wilson got here
Several league execs and scouts gave the same answer when asked what went wrong for Wilson in 2023:
Sean Payton.
"Sean never liked him as the guy from Day 1 and went out of his way to make that known," a veteran AFC personnel man said.
But Wilson's problems in Denver began far earlier than Feb. 6, 2023, Payton's first official day on the job. The Broncos and Wilson struggled to find an offensive identity throughout his first season in 2022. Wilson wanted more ownership of an offense after coming from Seattle, which leaned on the running game and play-action throws.
The Seahawks recognized Wilson's brilliant playmaking but also limited his throwing volume. Wilson averaged 29.9 passing attempts per game in 10 years with Seattle, below some of the league's top passers. The "Let Russ Cook" movement never truly took off for that reason. As the thinking went, Wilson was great ... when under control. A wide-open passing attack led to mistakes.
In 2022, newly hired coach Nathaniel Hackett and his staff tried to embolden Wilson, who expressed ideas for the Broncos' offense that the quarterback thought would lead to success. But the offense proved an amalgam of concepts without cohesion, such as "throwing plays against the wall to see what stuck," as one source with direct knowledge of the situation recalled.
Wilson also was considered less mobile in 2022 -- he acknowledged before the 2023 season that he had trimmed down from the previous season -- and sources said he sometimes had trouble communicating the lengthy playcalls of Hackett's offense.
All of this resulted in a paltry 38.8 QBR, which ranked 27th -- ahead of Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield. His 16 touchdowns marked a career low.
Hackett was fired after a 4-11 start, with Wilson drawing his share of criticism for the way it unraveled in his short tenure. To his credit, Wilson spent the offseason slimming down and appeared eager to learn from Payton, whose former team, New Orleans, was on Wilson's original trade request with Seattle years earlier.
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But the fit was always curious. Wilson is an instinctual thrower who thrives on broken plays. League scouts and execs say that Payton prefers a timing-and-rhythm thrower who plays the position more predictably and can dice defenses from inside the numbers.
It was telling when Payton and the Broncos gave Stidham a two-year, $10 million contract with $5 million guaranteed early in free agency. Payton spoke glowingly about Stidham at the NFL owners meetings in late March, calling him an "important signing" for Denver with the ability to "become an NFL starter" because of his intelligence.
Months later, Payton said in an interview with ESPN's Seth Wickersham that he had suggested it was time for Wilson to focus less on Russell Inc. "Will you f---ing stop kissing all the babies?" he'd said to Wilson. "You're not running for public office."
Wilson improved his play in the 2023 season with 3,070 yards, 28 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, helping Denver out of a 1-5 hole with a five-game winning streak to reenter the playoff race. As opposing coaches saw it, Payton simplified things for Wilson, giving him half-field reads with an available checkdown based on coverage and the freedom to use his legs to extend plays.
His efficiency came at the expense of his trademark playmaking. Wilson threw for 454 fewer yards than in 2022 despite attempting five more passes. His 6.8 air yards per attempt were the lowest of his career and ranked 37th among 48 quarterbacks with at least 100 passes -- behind the likes of Kenny Pickett, Easton Stick, Sam Howell and Jones.
The notion that Wilson wasn't Payton's style -- coupled with the specter of his guaranteed money due over the next two years -- overshadowed any strides made on the field.
"That's why it feels like the benching of Wilson was more of a football decision than a business decision," an NFC exec said. "Wilson and Payton were like oil and water."
Added an AFC exec: "I think ultimately Sean wanted his own guy at QB. His system is very extensive and usually takes years before a QB is truly comfortable."
Wilson's on-field outlook, 2024 fits
Many around the league view Wilson as a mid-tier starter, believing he rehabilitated his career in his first year under Payton, though a few see him as slightly below mid-tier.
"He actually played well during their midseason winning streak," an AFC personnel man said. "He's still a good quality starter. He can still make all of the throws, still mobile. Honestly, his skills haven't declined that much. It's more about the fit as a person. His teammates seemed to like him there."
Others see a functional but declining skill set, good enough for Wilson to earn one of 32 starting jobs but not enough to rediscover his Seattle self.
"Physically Russ is declining as his deep ball, mobility and overall accuracy are fading," an AFC personnel director said. "I think his career arc is unique because he's basically an older version of his younger self in Seattle. He needs a strong running game and defense once again to be a serviceable starter."
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The 2022 and 2023 seasons each saw at least 60 passers play snaps because of injury or benchings. Mac Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, Desmond Ridder, Kenny Pickett, Sam Howell and Josh Dobbs are among 2023 Week 1 starters who either got benched or didn't regain their jobs upon returning from injury -- Wilson is better than those quarterbacks.
"Still an instinctual thrower, still has arm talent to throw the ball downfield," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "Still a good enough mover. Has always thrown a good deep ball. It's just if you ask him to throw the ball 35 times a game, he's probably going to struggle. That's just not who he is."
League sources see several logical fits for Wilson, who could thrive in an offense that schemes clearly defined throws off play-action and the running game.
Don't be surprised if Wilson, should he become a free agent, is intrigued by Minnesota, assuming Kirk Cousins doesn't re-sign with the Vikings (a big question). Kevin O'Connell comes from the Sean McVay passing tree that maximizes quarterback efficiency. Wilson would have plenty of weapons in a group that includes Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison.
Mayfield is a free agent, and if Tampa Bay can't reach a new deal with him, the Bucs would make a lot of sense for Wilson. Tampa offensive coordinator Dave Canales was on Seattle's offensive staff throughout Wilson's 10 years there, and the two maintained a close relationship. In Canales' two years as Wilson's quarterbacks coach, Wilson was efficient with 66 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.
The Bucs and Mayfield are open to extension talks, so the Wilson discussion might be a moot point. But Wilson could be an intriguing option for them.
The Atlanta Falcons are the proverbial "quarterback away" from contending. They have several intriguing players on offense and could go the veteran route, depending on whom Atlanta hires as head coach. There are other potential sleepers: Pittsburgh, which is between quarterbacks and might not be completely sold on Pickett; and New England, which probably needs a veteran and a draft pick for the position.
The top three teams in the NFL draft -- the Bears (No. 1), Commanders (No. 2) and Patriots (No. 3) -- all appear interested in quarterbacks in 2024. That fact, and the potential for trades that would move quarterback-needy teams up the board, would likely limit the number of suitors for Wilson. The Broncos are scheduled to pick 12th and have a limited amount of draft capital to move up the board for a top name, such as Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.
What to do with the contract
The Broncos insist they have not decided on Wilson's long-term future with the franchise. But since most around the league aren't buying the notion of him returning, his imminent departure would leave Denver with two primary options:
Designate him as a post-June 1 release, setting up the Broncos to incur dead cap hits of $35.4 million in 2024 and $49.6 million in 2025.
Try to swing a trade, which would soften the dead cap blow a bit.
The second option would be incredibly tough to pull off. Wilson's contract is far from desirable, especially for teams that can just wait for Denver to release him.
Here's a scenario that many teams have pondered: Once he's presumably released before the fifth day of the new league year, Wilson could sign somewhere for the veteran minimum, effectively sticking Denver with all but $1 million of a $39 million bill of guarantees baked into 2024. Perhaps interest from several teams or the chance at a multiyear deal changes the equation, but the $39 million is offset against what he signs for with a new club.
And as several league execs pointed out to me, Wilson won't command anything close to that $39 million from a new team, so it might not matter much what he actually signs for when he finds a new franchise. Plus, agreeing to a low salary would help his new team build the roster around him.
It all matters to Denver, of course. That's why creative scenarios could come into play. One veteran NFL agent floated this idea: the Broncos could offer a trade to prospective teams on a sliding scale of draft compensation. For example, if Team X agrees to pay $25 million of the $39 million, the Broncos would perhaps throw in multiple mid-round picks. It's like a larger-scale Brock Osweiler trade.
But multiple league execs say that process would be messy because of the significant money tied to bonuses and not just base salary. How does a new team pay a tab on money that has already been paid? Plus, giving up draft picks for the right to trade a franchise quarterback isn't exactly a precedent Denver would want to set for the rest of the league.
After a messy exit, would Wilson -- who has a no-trade clause and the chance to be a free agent for the first time in his career -- be inclined to help the Broncos by approving a deal?
"I don't think he'll do Denver any favors," one salary cap expert with an NFL team said. "Why would he? He can wait this out and essentially pick his new team with a golden parachute coming."
Perhaps most importantly, Wilson can reset his NFL future on his terms, hand-picking a team based on fit and flexibility.
Just a guy looking for a place to cook.