Twelve of the 14 NFL playoff teams are in action on wild-card weekend and look to advance to the divisional round. How can each team get it done? We mapped out game-planning keys to victory.
We focused on personnel matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies and what we see on the game tape to come up with one crucial issue for all 12 teams this weekend. Additionally, we included game projections from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Here's how every team can win and move onto the next round of the playoffs.
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PIT-BUF | GB-DAL
LAR-DET | PHI-TB
(7) Green Bay Packers at (2) Dallas Cowboys
When: Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
ESPN BET: DAL -7
FPI prediction: DAL, 73.6%
How the Packers can beat the Cowboys
What's the plan to limit Dallas receiver CeeDee Lamb? Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry will have to get creative to limit Lamb's playmaking ability.
Yes, the Packers can use cornerback Jaire Alexander to travel in coverage against Lamb when they play man-free -- as long as Alexander suits up after rolling an ankle in practice this week. And Barry can use Cover 2 to cloud Lamb's perimeter alignments or play 2-Man to disrupt his release, with a safety waiting over the top.
But to really challenge Lamb, you need defensive answers when he's in the slot. This season, Lamb has caught 65 passes out of the slot for 894 yards and eight touchdowns. This is where he can work the middle of the field, stretch the seams and use his catch-and-run ability to create big plays. Green Bay can bracket him in man coverage with a safety cutting the inside routes, and it can also match and carry to deliver Lamb to the safeties.
How the Cowboys can beat the Packers
Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn runs multiple fronts, and he can create interior pass-rush matchups for edge rusher Micah Parsons. He can set up Parsons to rush inside, using both alignments and stunts. That's a matchup advantage for Dallas on passing downs, with Parsons playing as a stand-up nose tackle or 3-technique, while also using twist stunts opposite of the protection slide to give him that inside path to quarterback Jordan Love.
Parsons registered a league-best pass rush win rate of 35.4% this season, and he finished the regular season with 14.5 sacks and 71 pressures. By attacking the interior of Green Bay's pass protection schemes, Parsons will play a difference-making role on Sunday in Dallas.
(6) Los Angeles Rams at (3) Detroit Lions
When: Sunday, 8 p.m. ET (NBC)
ESPN BET: DET -3
FPI prediction: DET, 53.9%
How the Rams can beat the Lions
I'm expecting the Rams to lean on play-action concepts with quarterback Matthew Stafford. The play-action pass game is a foundational aspect of Sean McVay's offense, and Stafford will use his aggressive throwing mentality to attack coverage on leveled high-to-low reads. Over his past three games, Stafford has a QBR of 88.3 on play-action throws, completing 21-of-25 passes for 307 yards. He has been decisive with the ball here, throwing with velocity and touch.
On Sunday night, these concepts could manipulate the Detroit linebackers, forcing them to settle and take the underneath bait. That would open voids for Stafford to target wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The Lions defense gave up an average of 314.8 passing yards in their past four games, so look for L.A. to target the middle of the field and work the ball to the boundary on flood concepts, with McVay using the play-action game on early downs.
How the Lions can beat the Rams
Run the ball out of 11 personnel. I really don't believe this needs to be complicated. Yes, we will see the staple throws from quarterback Jared Goff on in-breaking concepts, but the Lions have the ability to control the run front with three wide receivers on the field. That means volume for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Lions averaged 83.2 rushing yards per game out of 11 personnel this season, and the Rams' defense allowed 4.9 yards per carry against 11 personnel.
Detroit can get to downhill zone and gap schemes here, while also attacking the perimeter. It will move defenders off the ball and create daylight for the backs.
(7) Pittsburgh Steelers at (2) Buffalo Bills
When: Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
ESPN BET: BUF -10
FPI prediction: BUF, 76.6%
How the Steelers can beat the Bills
If I were the Steelers, I would focus on hammering the ball inside the tackles. Running back Najee Harris has seen at least 26 carries in each of his past two games, and backfield mate Jaylen Warren gives this Steelers run game juice. Pittsburgh has developed a late-season identity on offense by running the ball downhill. It allows the Steelers to shorten the game and dictate tempo. In their final two games of the regular season, they averaged 124.5 rushing yards when running between the tackles. That means some inside zone, power and trap -- old-school stuff.
The Steelers will have opportunities against the Bills' front, too. Buffalo has allowed an average of 4.6 yards on rushes between the tackles this season, which ranks 30th in the league.
How the Bills can beat the Steelers
Buffalo has to target the middle of the field in the pass game. Quarterback Josh Allen will probably see more zone coverage looks from the Steelers, so working the ball to the middle of the field makes sense. This allows Allen to stay on schedule in the quick game, throwing the stick routes, crossers and middle-of-the-field Hi-Lo. Those are defined concepts where Allen can read it with speed.
Plus, this creates catch-and-run opportunities for receiver Stefon Diggs, receiver Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid. In his past two games, Allen has completed 75% of his passes on throws inside the numbers (8.2 yards per attempt). I believe this puts Allen in a position where he can throw with rhythm on both play-action and dropback concepts, especially as Pittsburgh allowed 8.0 yards per pass attempt between the numbers this season (tied for sixth highest).
(5) Philadelphia Eagles at (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
ESPN BET: PHI -3
FPI prediction: PHI, 57.3%
How the Eagles can beat the Buccaneers
I'd like to see Philadelphia create volume for running back D'Andre Swift. This Eagles offense is struggling to find rhythm and finish drives. What's the fix? Let's look at the run game with Swift, particularly behind that Eagles offensive front out of 11 and 12 personnel. In the head-to-head matchup with the Bucs in Week 3, Swift rushed for 130 yards on 16 carries, with four runs of 12 or more yards. The Eagles can get him going again with outside zone, inside zone and gap schemes behind a front that can control the outcome.
The Eagles can be very multiple in their run game with designed carries for quarterback Jalen Hurts and their run-pass option packages. But I think Swift needs 15 to 20 carries on Monday night for this offense to re-establish an identity that has been missing.
How the Buccaneers can beat the Eagles
Tampa Bay should be targeting the deficiencies of the Eagles' pass defense, which surrendered 252.7 passing yards per game during the regular season, second most in the league. Scheme matters, but this is also about the defensive personnel deficiencies that Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield can expose.
On the perimeter, Tampa Bay can isolate wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin against cornerback James Bradberry. On the tape, Bradberry's play speed has declined, and this will create opportunities at the second and third levels. Plus, Mayfield will have opportunities to work the middle of the field against linebackers who have limitations in coverage -- which also brings running back Rachaad White into the mix as a receiver. I expect Mayfield to play with an aggressive throwing mentality.
Saturday's games
(5) Cleveland Browns at (4) Houston Texans
When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
ESPN BET: CLE -2
FPI prediction: CLE, 50.5%
How the Browns can beat the Texans
Cleveland has to scheme deep shots for quarterback Joe Flacco. In the Browns' Week 16 head-to-head matchup with the Texans, Flacco dropped 368 passing yards on the Houston defense, with wide receiver Amari Cooper logging a franchise record 265 yards receiving. A closer look at the tape, however, tells us that Browns coach Kevin Stefanski put Flacco in position to drive the ball down the field on concepts that created isolation matchups and schemed voids against the Texans' core coverages.
Flacco logged five completions on throws of 20 or more air yards in that win and I expect Stefanski to dial up more of those shots in his quarterback-friendly system on Saturday, with Cooper and tight end David Njoku as the top targets. Houston allowed 34 of those deep throws this season, tied for the second most in the NFL.
How the Texans can beat the Browns
Give quarterback C.J. Stroud some passing game answers against single-high coverage. This season, Cleveland's defense has played single-high (Cover 1, Cover 3) on 75.1% of opponents dropbacks. We'll see a good dose of Cover 1 from the Browns on Saturday, with an aggressive secondary that challenges receivers.
Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik can set up Stroud against three-deep zone to let him rip the ball to receiver Nico Collins on defined second- and third-level throws. It's all over the tape. But Slowik will also need answers for man coverage. Can he get his receivers free access off the ball? I'll be looking for a lot of quick-strike passes and reduced formations/motion, with play-action and boots mixed in. Stroud's QBR versus man coverage this season is 38.8, which ranks 27th in the NFL.
(6) Miami Dolphins at (3) Kansas City Chiefs
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Peacock)
ESPN BET: KC -4.5
FPI prediction: KC, 52.6%
How the Dolphins can beat the Chiefs
Creating extra gaps and numbers in the run game will be crucial. This game is expected to have brutally cold weather, and coach Mike McDaniel's offense has to produce on the ground out of 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE).
In these two teams' first meeting of the season, in Week 9, Miami rushed for 82 yards out of 21 personnel (5.9 per carry). McDaniel can scheme gaps and advantages to the play side here using formation, shifts and pre-snap movement. While running back Raheem Mostert has been limited in practice this week (knee/ankle), the Dolphins can ride with De'Von Achane and Jeff Wilson Jr. Achane has explosive traits, and these schemed concepts would cause conflict for Kansas City's defensive run fits. And it should allow the Dolphins to build a strong complement to their pass game.
How the Chiefs can beat the Dolphins
Simply put, the Chiefs have to stick to defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's defensive plan for Miami receiver Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs will have a new installation on defense for this game, but the staple coverages we saw against Miami in Week 9 allowed the Chiefs to limit Hill's home run ability. Sure, Hill caught eight of 10 targets, but he also averaged just 7.8 yards per reception and didn't record a single catch of 20 or more yards.
Spagnuolo's defense played two-deep on 60.5% of coverage snaps (Cover 2 and 2-Man), with late rotation to get the safeties over the top and challenge releases. The Chiefs forced Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to throw the ball underneath or to the midlevels of the field. And I would expect a similar approach on Saturday, because you cannot let Miami turn this into a track meet on the perimeter. Explosive plays are game-changers.