By the time we get to this point in the NFL season, you think you know what you need to know about the 14 playoff teams. After all, we've seen each of them play 17 games while weathering injuries, quarterback changes, losing streaks, winning streaks, etc. So we feel pretty confident we know these teams ... but do we really?
The other things that harden over a 17-game season are incorrect assumptions. If a team develops a reputation, it can stick, even as evidence sneakily piles up in the background to dispute those claims. Add in the fact that a decent chunk of the audience is watching a lot more closely this time of year and might not have been paying attention to the trends and tendencies we track weekly throughout the NFL season, and you get some myths that need busting.
So each season on the eve of the NFL playoffs -- with some help from my friend and esteemed ESPN researcher Paul "Hembo" Hembekides -- I like to try to bust some of the myths you might have tricked yourself into believing about the playoff field. Here is one for each of the 14 postseason teams.
Jump to a team:
BAL | BUF | CLE | DAL | DET | GB | HOU
KC | LAR | MIA | PHI | PIT | SF | TB
NFC
1. San Francisco 49ers
The myth: Brock Purdy's numbers are inflated by the Niners' run-after-catch ability
Because of the reputation that 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has for making quarterbacks look good, anyone who plays QB for the 49ers would be at risk of being labeled a "system quarterback." Purdy is surrounded by supremely talented players such as Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. And the Niners were No. 1 in the league this season in yards after the catch (6.5 per reception).
Add in the fact that Purdy was quite famously the last pick in the 2022 draft, which suggests he had quite a few doubters coming into the league, and there's a narrative around Purdy's success that says anyone in his position could be doing the same thing.
Why it's a myth: Yes, the 49ers have great run-after-catch ability. And yes, Shanahan does a great job of scheming up plays that maximize it. But Purdy's not considerably more reliant on that than other quarterbacks. The 49ers are sixth in the league in receiving yards (4,577) and fourth in yards after the catch (2,189). To translate, they get 47.8% of their receiving yards after the catch. For comparison's sake, the Chiefs get 61.1% of their receiving yards after the catch. Is Patrick Mahomes a system quarterback?
QBR is a stat that directly measures a quarterback's contribution to plays that help the team win, and Purdy's 72.8 was the highest in the NFL this season. He also ranked seventh in air yards per pass attempt at 8.0. He might be well-suited for Shanahan's offense, but to call Purdy a system quarterback underrates what he has accomplished.
2. Dallas Cowboys
The myth: The Cowboys have a bit of a bully element to them
Dallas played seven games this season against the Giants (twice), Jets, Patriots, Panthers and Commanders (twice) and won those games by an average of 30.4 points. The Cowboys struggled more against better teams, and the margins in those games were not nearly as large. This leads to a perception that quarterback Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are good at beating up on bad teams but something short of elite when the opponents are the 49ers, Eagles, Bills, Lions, etc.
Why it's a myth: Sure, Prescott has better numbers against bad teams ... but that's the case for most quarterbacks. His QBR against teams with losing records was 80.7 this season, and it was 63.4 against teams with winning records. Big difference, sure, but 63.4 would still rank seventh in the league on its own. Prescott threw 19 of his touchdown passes in nine games against sub-.500 teams and 17 in eight games against winning teams.
Everyone inflates their numbers when they play bad teams, and they should. But Prescott's numbers against teams that have winning records -- 66.4% completion percentage, 17 touchdown passes to six interceptions, etc. -- are still excellent. There's no denigrating the season Prescott is having.
3. Detroit Lions
The myth: Jared Goff is a different player than he was in Los Angeles
The trade that sent Goff from the Rams to the Lions prior to the 2021 season won't likely be remembered as a Jared Goff trade. The Rams included Goff in that deal because they were getting Matthew Stafford, who would then quarterback them to a Super Bowl title in his first season with the team. The general thought at the time was that Goff would be a bridge quarterback while the Lions continued to search for their long-term solution.
But Goff has played well under Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and has Detroit atop its division for the first time in 30 years. He could be in line for a big extension this offseason.
Why it's a myth: A look at the numbers tells us that Goff has been pretty much the same quarterback in Detroit that he was in Los Angeles.
He averaged 263.4 passing yards per game as a Ram, and he has averaged 255.4 as a Lion. His yards per attempt (7.5 as a Ram, 7.3 as a Lion) are about the same, and he takes sacks at a nearly identical rate (5.0% of L.A. dropbacks versus 4.9% with Detroit). His completion percentage is up a bit, from 63.4% to 66.5%, and he throws interceptions at a lower rate (on 1.6% of his passes versus 2.3% when he was a Ram). His QBR as a Ram was 52.1, and as a Lion, it's 57.0.
Goff actually did more winning as a Ram, but that's not necessarily a fair comparison because he wasn't asked to help engineer a ground-up rebuild there the way he has in Detroit. But he has basically been the same player he was in Los Angeles. And I don't think that's an insult. If anything, we probably underrate how good he was in L.A.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The myth: Baker Mayfield throws the ball only to Mike Evans
The indefatigable Evans, who has played in the NFL for 10 years and has never failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards in any of them, has had a vintage season. His 1,255 yards this season were the third most in his career. His 13 touchdowns tied for his second-highest total. And his 79 catches were also the third most he has had in a season.
It seemed there was hardly a week when you'd be watching RedZone and not see some long Mayfield pass to Evans for a touchdown. When one of your star receivers has 13 touchdown catches and the other (Chris Godwin) has two, it might seem like you're overly reliant on one pass-catcher.
Why it's a myth: Mayfield has not targeted Evans at a significantly higher rate than he has targeted Godwin. Evans had 136 targets and 79 catches this season, while Godwin had 130 targets and 83 catches. Evans averaged 16.2 yards per catch to Godwin's 12.6, which explains the difference in yardage. And Evans' 19 end zone targets ranked third in the league, which could help explain the touchdown numbers. Godwin had 11 end zone targets, which was tied for 15th.
That 13-2 touchdown difference doesn't accurately reflect the extent to which Mayfield has tried to make big throws to Godwin. So don't overlook Godwin as a factor in the postseason.
5. Philadelphia Eagles
The myth: The Eagles have a fearsome pass rush
Again, this column is for people who might just be tuning into the NFL as the playoffs start and remember the Eagles team that collected a league-leading 70 sacks in the 2022 regular season. The Eagles returned Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham from that edge rush group and added Nolan Smith in the first round of the draft.
Despite somehow failing to get a single sack in the Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs, the Eagles looked poised to build on that 2022 success heading into 2023. And they ended up finishing this season with the league's sixth-ranked pass rush win rate.
Why it's a myth: Well, the Eagles also finished the regular season with 43 sacks, placing them right in the middle of the pack. And that sixth-ranked pass rush win rate was 47.4%, way down from the 52.7% that led the league in 2022.
One of the consequences of this drop-off in pass rushing was an opponent QBR of 55.5, which was the third-highest figure in the league, behind Arizona's and Washington's. The Eagles' defense -- and particularly their pass defense -- looks like a major Achilles' heel as the playoffs begin.
6. Los Angeles Rams
The myth: Cooper Kupp is over the hill and not the Rams' top receiver anymore
The raw numbers bear this out. Fifth-round pick Puka Nacua just set NFL records for catches and receiving yards by a rookie. He has been an absolute miracle of a pick, leading the Rams with 105 catches and 161 targets, not to mention 1,486 yards.
Kupp missed the first four games of the season due to a hamstring injury and went over 100 yards in each of his first two games back, but he crossed the century mark in only two games since then. Kupp is 30 years old and has battled injuries over the past couple of years, so it wouldn't be a surprise if he was slowing down and being usurped by the eye-opening rookie.
Why it's a myth: Stafford still looks for Kupp when it counts. In 12 games, Kupp had 19 red zone targets, which ranked among the top 10 in the league. He had eight end zone targets, only three fewer than Nacua, who played every game. And Kupp had 44 total targets in five December games, including one game with 10 and one with 12.
Nacua is a revelation, and young running back Kyren Williams has become a cornerstone of the offense. But don't make the mistake of thinking Stafford won't look for Kupp in big spots just because he's not the biggest star in the wide receiver corps right now. This guy was the Super Bowl MVP just two seasons ago.
7. Green Bay Packers
The myth: The Packers' offense is too young to make noise in the playoffs
Oh, the Packers are young, make no mistake about that. In fact, they are the fourth-youngest team to make the playoffs since the 1970 merger -- and youngest since the 1974 Bills -- with an average age weighted for playing time of 25.6, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Their 9-8 record and playoff berth is a whale of an accomplishment for Matt LaFleur and his coaching staff, and it does a great deal to dispel the myth that LaFleur's success was because of Aaron Rodgers. So good for LaFleur, and let's not underestimate him.
But Jordan Love is still a first-year starting quarterback, and literally every wide receiver and tight end he has in that offense is in either his first or second season. The Packers have to go to Dallas to play Prescott and the Cowboys in a wild-card game, and if they win that, they would have to go to San Francisco the following week. Tough sledding for the league's youngest team.
Why it's a myth: The Packers played six games this regular season against teams that made the playoffs. They went 3-3 in those games, with wins against the Chiefs, Lions and Rams. In those six games, Love posted a strong QBR of 62.9, completed 67% of his passes and threw 12 touchdown passes to four interceptions. He also averaged 264 passing yards per game in those six matchups.
The Packers' young offensive players have bought in and jelled together as the season has progressed, and they're as healthy as they've been all season. It'll be an uphill battle against the Cowboys, but don't expect the Packers to be overwhelmed by the playoff atmosphere.
AFC
1. Baltimore Ravens
The myth: This is the best team Lamar Jackson has ever had entering the playoffs
Jackson is the presumptive MVP of the league, and the supporting cast of receivers he has around him is generally thought to be the best he has ever had. Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor ... first-round picks all around. Even young tight end Isaiah Likely has performed at a level that has helped make up for the loss of old reliable Mark Andrews (left ankle) at that position.
The Ravens roll into the playoffs looking nearly unstoppable, having waxed the 49ers and Dolphins in a seven-day span at the end of 2023. And the defense under coordinator Mike Macdonald seems to be operating on a different level. Jackson's Ravens look poised to do what they weren't able to do the last time he won MVP in the 2019 season: make a playoff run.
Why it's a myth: Let's look at that 2019 season. Yes, this season's Baltimore defense is better. It allows a league-low 16.5 points per game and also led the league with a whopping 112.8 defensive EPA. But the 2019 defense was also quite good. It ranked third with 17.6 points allowed per game and fourth in defensive EPA at 51.8.
Where this season's team is less dominant, believe it or not, is on offense. We're splitting hairs here, but the 2023 Ravens scored 28.4 points per game (fourth), gained 370.4 yards per game (sixth) and posted a 75.4 offensive EPA (sixth) and 57.5 offensive efficiency (eighth). But the run-heavy 2019 version? That team averaged 33.2 points per game (first) and 407.6 yards (second), and posted a 200.7 offensive EPA (first) and 75.0 offensive efficiency (second).
This Ravens' offense might have more ways to beat you, but that offense was downright unstoppable (until, of course, the playoffs). Again, this is all nitpicking. These Ravens are great and a worthy Super Bowl favorite. But the 2019 Ravens offense was a juggernaut, so it'd be tough to say this is Jackson's best team. And having lost running backs J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell to season-ending injuries, this season's run game is at least a question mark -- hence the late addition of veteran Dalvin Cook, who might be able to give the Ravens something at the most critical time of the year.
2. Buffalo Bills
The myth: Josh Allen isn't a great playoff quarterback
In spite of a bizarre up-and-down season, Allen's Bills finished with double-digit wins for the fifth year in a row and as division champs for the fourth year in a row. But Allen, whose teams are 63-30 in his regular-season starts, has a 4-4 playoff record and has been to the AFC Championship Game only once.
A lot is asked of Allen, to be sure, but if he's to join the pantheon of modern greats, it feels like some playoff success -- a Super Bowl appearance, at least, if not a win -- is an arrow he still needs to add to his quiver.
Why it's a myth: By most measures, Allen has actually been a better quarterback in the postseason than in the regular season.
His career regular-season averages include 241.5 passing yards per game, a 63.2% completion percentage, a 92.2 passer rating and 167 touchdown passes to 78 interceptions (2.1 ratio). He also averages 38.4 rushing yards in the regular season and has 53 regular-season rushing touchdowns (0.6 per game). In the postseason, those numbers go up to 291.8 passing yards per game, a 63.8% completion percentage, a 99.6 passer rating, 17 touchdown passes to four interceptions (4.3 ratio) and 52.1 rushing yards per game. (He has only two postseason rushing touchdowns, the slacker.)
It's not hard to remember the playoff game against the Chiefs in which Allen was downright heroic, and Mahomes still managed to go down the field in 13 seconds against the Buffalo defense to tie the game and eventually steal a win in overtime. The Bills have had their issues in the postseason, but Allen has absolutely not been one of them.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
The myth: If the Chiefs' receivers would stop dropping the ball, their offense would be just fine
The Chiefs lead the NFL with 38 dropped passes, three more than the second-place team in that category (Browns). If you filter just for wide receivers, the Chiefs still lead in drops with 25 -- seven more than the second-place Rams.
There's no way around it: Drops are a problem in Kansas City, where a once-mighty Mahomes-led offense dropped this season to 14th in points scored (21 per game), 11th in offensive efficiency (49.8) and 13th in offensive EPA (10.0). Mahomes' 7.0 yards per attempt were a career low, his 14 interceptions a career high and his 27 touchdown passes his lowest single-season total since 2019, when he threw 26 but played only 14 games. The feeling is that the receivers' erratic performance has been a drag on Mahomes and the entire offense.
Why it's a myth: Drops by the young wide receiver group aren't the Chiefs' only problem.
Mainstay tight end Travis Kelce is having the worst season of his career, failing to reach 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2015 and posting an average of 10.6 yards per catch (by far a career low). The Chiefs' tackles are the most penalized in the league; right tackle Jawaan Taylor has been flagged 19 times this season, including eight times for false starts and six times for holding, while left tackle Donovan Smith has been flagged eight times. The Chiefs are second in the league in passing attempts and 25th in rushing attempts, indicating an alarming lack of balance at a time when the passing game is as unreliable as it has been since Mahomes became the starter.
Even if the receivers all of a sudden started catching everything in sight, it's not as though all of the Chiefs' problems would be solved.
4. Houston Texans
The myth: The Texans have enough at receiver to cope with the Tank Dell injury
The star rookie wideout broke his left leg early in the Texans' Week 13 game against Denver and hasn't played since. In that game, Nico Collins went for 191 receiving yards and C.J. Stroud was 16-for-27 for 274 yards and a touchdown.
The Texans went 3-1 in Stroud's final four starts of the season after he missed two games while in the concussion protocol. Stroud had four touchdown passes and no interceptions in those games. And on the season, Collins went for 1,297 yards, while receiver Noah Brown averaged 17.2 yards on 33 catches.
Why it's a myth: Regardless of all that, the Texans' passing game does appear to miss Dell. Yes, there have been other wide receiver injuries, and yes, the Texans used backup quarterbacks in two of their final six games. But in Weeks 13 through 18, Houston had just 15 receptions of 20 or more yards -- a figure that tied for 20th in the league. Consider that from Weeks 1 through 12, it had a league-leading 54 such plays, including seven for touchdowns. Furthermore, the Texans had only one touchdown catch of 20 or more yards in Weeks 13 through 18.
Over the first 12 weeks of the season, Houston was fourth in the league in passing yards, third in yards per attempt, second in air yards per attempt and tied for seventh in passing touchdowns. In Weeks 13 through 18 in those same categories, the Texans ranked 22nd, 26th, 13th and 16th.
5. Cleveland Browns
The myth: The Browns can overcome Joe Flacco's interceptions
One of the great storylines of the season, Flacco has started five games for the Browns and helped them into the playoffs after the loss of Deshaun Watson (shoulder). The 38-year-old has thrown eight interceptions in those games. He has also fumbled four times, though he lost only one of them. The Browns are nevertheless 4-1 in those games, largely because of the 13 touchdown passes Flacco has thrown.
The Browns have perhaps the best defense in the league, and to this point, the upside of Flacco's big-play ability has been able to overcome the downside of his tendency to put the ball in harm's way. The Browns actually led the NFL in turnovers in the regular season with 37 but still went 11-6, in large part because they also tied for fifth with 28 takeaways.
Why it's a myth: There is no stat, outside of points, that has a greater impact on winning and losing in the NFL than turnovers. At some point, having a negative turnover differential has to catch up with Cleveland. The Browns were minus-9 in the regular season, better than six teams. Two of those six (Eagles and Chiefs) are in the playoffs, but the other four are the Patriots, Falcons, Vikings and Commanders, who are very much not.
The postseason field is filled with opportunistic teams that know how to take care of the ball. The Browns' first-round opponent, the Texans, had a plus-10 turnover differential this season. The Ravens, whom they'd likely face in the second round if they beat the Texans, had a plus-12. The Steelers were plus-11. The Dolphins were plus-2, as were the Bills. There's a good chance that every opponent the Browns face in the postseason will be a team that takes better care of the ball than they do. And at some point, that's going to cost them.
6. Miami Dolphins
The myth: The Dolphins have a top-level defense under first-year coordinator Vic Fangio
Miami won the Fangio sweepstakes last offseason, outbidding several other teams to hire him as its defensive coordinator after finishing 24th in the league in defensive efficiency and 21st in defensive EPA in 2022. This season, the Dolphins got up to 15th in efficiency (57.5) and 13th in EPA (25.9). They sacked opposing quarterbacks on 8.6% of dropbacks, second best in the NFL, after ranking 22nd in that same category at 5.8% in 2022.
Why it's a myth: The Dolphins' defense improved, but the unit that played most of this season isn't the one they'll be taking into the postseason. Their top two edge rushers, Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, are out with season-ending injuries.
Prior to his Week 17 injury, Chubb had 54 quarterback pressures this season. No other Dolphins player had more than 31. Chubb's six forced fumbles were the most in the league through Week 17, too. The Dolphins might be better on defense than they were this time last year, but they enter the playoffs at something significantly less than full strength.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
The myth: Mike Tomlin's defenses rise to the occasion in the playoffs
"Defense wins championships," the old saying goes, so this is the time of year you want to be playing your best defense. The Steelers are an organization known for defense, built on defense, famed for defense. And over Tomlin's first decade as their coach, their 8-6 postseason record owed itself to some signature defensive performances.
Why it's a myth: The Steelers have played three playoff games over the past six seasons, and they haven't packed their defense for any of them. They lost 45-42 to the Jaguars in the 2017 wild-card round with Jacksonville's Leonard Fournette rushing for 109 yards and three touchdowns. They lost 48-37 to the Browns in the 2020 wild-card round (falling behind 28-0 in the first quarter). And they lost 42-21 to the Chiefs in the 2021 wild-card round, a game in which Mahomes was 30-for-39 for 404 yards and five touchdowns.
One reason for the Steelers' current playoff struggles is that their defense hasn't shown up for a postseason game since they held an Alex Smith-led Chiefs team to 16 points in the 2016 divisional round.