There's only one weekend left of regular-season games in the 2023 NFL season, and 11 teams are still alive for five unclaimed playoff berths. The scenarios range from "must win" to "must win but also need some help" to "could actually still make it with a loss if things play out just right." A Week 18 victory would go a long way for all of the 11 teams, and five of them actually face "win-and-in" situations.
So we opted to map out how each team can get it done. Here is one big game-plan key to victory for all 11 franchises. We focused on personnel matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies and what we see on the game tape. Additionally, clinching scenarios and chances to make the playoffs from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) are detailed below for each team, which are listed in the order they will play this weekend. We kick things off with three playoff hopefuls in action on Saturday.
Jump to:
ATL | BUF | GB | HOU | IND | JAX
MIN | NO | PIT | SEA | TB
What the Jaguars need to do to win at the Titans
Game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 83.3%
Clinching scenario: Win OR Broncos loss + Steelers loss + no tie in Texans-Colts
Key to victory: Set the edges against the Tennessee run game.
The Jags will play their five-man fronts on Sunday to counter the Titans' outside zone schemes, and safety Rayshawn Jenkins will be a downhill hitter as a cutback defender. In the Week 11 win over Titans, this Jaguars' defensive unit held Tennessee running back Derrick Henry to 3.8 yards per carry, limiting his ability to find interior daylight and bounce the ball outside to the perimeter. Every defense needs to set an edge, and the Jags showed that on the tape.
If you allow Henry to get rolling -- which would allow the Titans to dictate tempo -- then this becomes a much different football game.
What the Falcons need to do to win at the Saints
Game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 10.4%
Clinching scenario: Win + Buccaneers loss
Key to victory: Use Bijan Robinson in the pass game.
In the first meeting with the Saints, Robinson produced 123 total yards. But I was more focused on the rookie running back's deployment as a receiver, where he caught three passes for 32 yards and a touchdown. There were even more opportunities on the tape, with Robinson releasing out of the backfield on choice routes. Atlanta has to hit those throws.
With Taylor Heinicke now under center for the Falcons, coach Arthur Smith can scheme for Robinson on high-percentage targets to get him the ball in space versus underneath defenders. That's where he can be an all-purpose playmaker in this matchup.
What the Saints need to do to win vs. the Falcons
Game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 23.7%
Clinching scenario: Win + Buccaneers loss OR Win + Packers loss + Seahawks loss
Key to victory: Isolate wide receiver Chris Olave against man coverage.
In the Week 12 head-to-head matchup against Atlanta, Olave produced 114 yards receiving, catching seven of nine targets. He did the majority of his work versus man coverage, running the deep overs, crossers and outs.
The Falcons played man coverage 87.5% of the time in that game, mixing Cover 1 and 2-Man looks. This is where Olave -- from both perimeter and slot alignments -- can win matchups on third down or create explosive plays over the top. He averages 2.6 yards per route run against man coverage, 13th-best in the NFL.
What the Buccaneers need to do to win at the Panthers
Game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 72.6%
Clinching scenario: Win
Key to victory: Heat up Carolina quarterback Bryce Young.
I would look for Bucs coach Todd Bowles to bring heavy pressure this Sunday after I watched the Week 13 Carolina-Tampa Bay tape. The Tampa Bay defense had a blitz rate of 54.3% and pressure rate of 40% in that game, while also producing four sacks.
The Bucs featured disguised blitzes that can create a four-strong, overload scheme with linebackers and defensive backs. And they used that pressure to speed up the clock for Young while also impacting his eye level in the pocket. Young completed 48.4% of his passes in that loss to Tampa Bay, finishing with a QBR of 18.4. And his 7.7 QBR against pressure this season ranks 28th out of 30 qualified quarterbacks.
What the Vikings need to do to win at the Lions
Game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 2.5%
Clinching scenario: Win + Packers loss + Seahawks loss + Saints loss OR Win + Packers loss + Seahawks loss + Buccaneers loss
Key to victory: Attack two-high coverage with receiver Justin Jefferson.
In the head-to-head game against the Lions two weeks ago, Jefferson logged 141 receiving yards on six receptions. It's all about the explosive plays here, with Jefferson manipulating man coverage and finding the voids against split-safety looks (both zone and man).
The Lions, who surrendered 411 passing yards in that game, played two-high coverage on 48.4% of quarterback Nick Mullens' dropbacks. Jefferson can run the seams, work inside on the dig routes or push to the corner versus Cover 2. And with Mullens' aggressive throwing mentality, Jefferson will see the ball on Sunday.
What the Packers need to do to win vs. the Bears
Game: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 63.7%
Clinching scenario: Win OR Vikings loss + Seahawks loss + Saints loss OR Vikings loss + Seahawks loss + Buccaneers loss
Key to victory: Change the defensive picture post-snap for Bears quarterback Justin Fields.
Look for Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry to major in zone against Fields, with plenty of disguised coverages, pressures and late secondary rotation. This season, Fields has thrown 11 touchdown passes and posted a QBR of 81.4 against man coverage. But his QBR drops to 26.4 against zone, with five touchdown throws and six interceptions.
You have to make him read it out post-snap and anticipate the zone windows, while also having defenders with eyes on the quarterback. The Packers must limit Fields' ability to create special plays when he leaves the pocket.
What the Seahawks need to do to win at the Cardinals
Game: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 27.1%
Clinching scenario: Win + Packers loss
Key to victory: Take the perimeter matchups with wide receiver DK Metcalf.
Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III will likely see good volume in this game against a sub-par Cardinals rush defense, but Pete Carroll's team should also attack the outside matchups with Metcalf. Seattle can take the space underneath when Arizona cornerbacks Antonio Hamilton Sr. and Starling Thomas V bail in zone looks, and then throw the verticals when you get press coverage.
Metcalf is averaging 17 yards per catch this season, and he has 19 receptions for 20 or more yards. I'd test the corners and take some shots to him on Sunday.
What the Bills need to do to win at the Dolphins
Game: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 95.0%
Clinching scenario: Win OR Jaguars loss OR Steelers loss OR Texans-Colts tie
Key to victory: Limit the vertical throws to Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill.
When the Bills beat Miami back in Week 4, they held Hill to three catches and 58 receiving yards, and the speedy wideout only had 12 yards after the catch. Buffalo played two-high coverage on 73% of Tua Tagovailoa's dropbacks, with a low blitz rate of 2.4%. The idea here is to disrupt the releases for Hill and cap the vertical routes with two safeties over the top.
Yes, the Bills will mix in some single-high man/zone on Sunday night, but leaning on the two-high shells would put them in a position to limit the explosive plays from this Miami pass game.
Game plans for Saturday's games
What the Steelers need to do to win at the Ravens
Game: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 21.6%
Clinching scenario: Win + Jaguars loss OR Win + Bills loss OR Win + Texans-Colts tie OR Broncos win + Jaguars loss + no tie in Texans-Colts
Key to victory: Stick with 12 and 13 personnel in the offensive game plan.
I really liked the Steelers' offensive script in the Week 17 win over Seattle, where they used a lot of two- and three-tight end sets. Pittsburgh logged 220 yards of total offense out of 12 and 13 personnel, resetting the line of scrimmage in the run game and deploying wide receiver George Pickens as a multi-level target for quarterback Mason Rudolph.
I would run it back this Sunday against a Baltimore defense that could potentially sit some key players. The Steelers have to maintain that physical offensive identity.
What the Texans need to do to win at the Colts
Game: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 48.5%
Clinching scenario: Win
Key to victory: Scheme defensive fronts for Will Anderson Jr.
Texans coach DeMeco Ryans will use alignment and personnel to scheme his fronts, deploying five-man surfaces and loaded fronts to get the pass-rush matchups he wants for Anderson.
The rookie edge rusher has seven sacks and 44 pressures on the season, and his pass rush win rate of 25.7% ranks third in the NFL. Look for Ryans to set up Anderson with edge one-on-ones versus Colts offensive tackles Braden Smith and Bernhard Raimann. These will be critical matchups for both clubs on Saturday night.
What the Colts need to do to win vs. the Texans
Game: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 51.6%
Clinching scenario: Win
Key to victory: Close the middle of the field.
In their first meeting with Houston back in Week 2, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud lit up the middle of the field, completing 20 of 26 passes for 257 yards on throws inside the numbers. Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik had plenty of answers for Cover 3 here, with Stroud hitting the schemed concepts. And Indianapolis played three-deep zone on 44.2% of coverage snaps.
Let's bring that number down in this rematch and run more Quarters coverage. That would allow the safeties to cut/drive on the in-breakers when Stroud targets receiver Nico Collins, with the underneath defenders playing to depth in their zone drops.