NFL contenders' biggest weaknesses, playoff teams to avoid

Havrisik hasn't been better; the Arizona product went 15-of-20 on field goals and 19-of-22 on extra points. A 2-for-4 performance on point afters against the Giants led the Rams to cut Havrisik after the victory. They actually had Crosby on the practice squad at one point this season, but after cutting Havrisik, the Rams are going back to Maher for the final week of the regular season.

The only positive is that opposing kickers have landed only 85.7% of their kicks against the Rams, which is also 31st in the NFL. But unfortunately, preventing teams from succeeding on field goals and extra points is random luck; there's no reason to believe the Rams will be as successful at keeping kicks from splitting the uprights in the postseason. Having a good kicker, on the other hand, isn't luck. And right now, the Rams don't appear to have one.

Team to avoid: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I don't want to be cruel, but if Maher's going to be kicking for this team in the postseason, the last place he probably wants to be is Tampa Bay, where he missed four of five extra points in a blowout Cowboys victory in January 2023.

7. Philadelphia Eagles

Chances of winning Super Bowl: 1.9%
The Eagles' flaw: Pass defense

Frustrated Eagles fans might wonder why we're being so specific by picking one flaw. It was only a year ago that a defense with 70 regular-season sacks was about to light up the Giants and 49ers in the postseason. After an offseason in which the Eagles lost defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, top defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, both starting linebackers and both starting safeties, and then had one of the oldest defenses in football age by a year, anyone paying attention would have expected the Eagles' defense to decline from where it had been in 2022.

As one of those skeptics, though, I never expected the Eagles' defense to be this bad in 2023. Philadelphia is 29th in QBR allowed, nestled between the Bengals and Giants. The Eagles have allowed 34 touchdown passes, which is only one short of the rival Commanders for the most in the NFL. The Eagles turn average quarterbacks they've faced this season into a typical performance from Dak Prescott, who is going to be on the outskirts of the MVP discussion.

I believe Eagles fans could have seen a scenario where the secondary struggled, but the pass rush falling apart seems particularly ominous. The Eagles are 29th in pressure rate and 25th in sack rate over the full season. Things have gotten worse as the year has gone along; they are 30th in sack rate since Week 10, having taken down opposing quarterbacks just 11 times over the past seven games. They had nine sacks in a game last season.

If there's a comparable defense for these Eagles, I'd look at last season's Vikings. That Minnesota team had a solid front four, but if the pass rush didn't get home, it was too easy for teams to beat soft, passive coverage and take advantage of mismatches. Throwing short against the Eagles is like a seven-on-seven drill. Their 84.5 QBR against those throws is the worst mark in the NFL by nearly five points.

Frustrated by their disappointing play, the Eagles went to the rare in-season change of a coordinator in December, as they demoted Sean Desai and promoted former Lions coach Matt Patricia to the lead role. We've seen a move like this work in the past for a playoff team: Jim Caldwell was promoted from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator by the Ravens in December 2012 and then oversaw a stunning four-game performance by Joe Flacco, who led Baltimore to a Super Bowl.

Things haven't gotten off to a great start, as the Eagles have lost two of Patricia's first three games as defensive coordinator, including a 35-31 defeat at the hands of the Cardinals on Sunday. Since he took over the defense in the middle of the season, Patricia hasn't been able to install anything dramatically different. The most notable shifts have been the use of rookie edge rusher Nolan Smith as a linebacker behind a five-man front and, surprisingly, a move toward more zone coverage. Patricia's Lions had been the league's most man coverage-heavy defense in football before his firing.

While a schematic breakthrough probably isn't coming, the best hope for the Eagles might be the return of missing personnel. Cornerback Darius Slay has missed the past few weeks after knee surgery, but he should be back for the postseason. Slot corner Avonte Maddox just returned after missing most of the season with a torn pectoral muscle, though he struggled in his play. And linebacker Zach Cunningham has been sidelined for most of December, while Nakobe Dean has played just five games.

Veteran imports such as Bradley Roby and Shaquille Leonard haven't looked good in the lineup, so the Eagles need to get as many of those vets back as possible to give Patricia's defense any hope of thriving. The Eagles also could try increasing the workloads of top defensive linemen Josh Sweat and Jalen Carter in the hopes of having their best players on the field more often.

Team to avoid: San Francisco 49ers. A lot of teams want to avoid the 49ers, of course, but we saw Brock Purdy pick the Eagles' soft zones apart for 314 passing yards and four touchdowns in a 42-19 win over Philly last month.

6. Detroit Lions

Chances of winning Super Bowl: 2.2%
The Lions' flaw: Beating pressure

Given time to throw, Jared Goff is one of the smoothest quarterbacks in the game. His 77.3 QBR without pressure this season is the third-best mark for any quarterback, and it's nothing new. Goff was fifth in that category in 2022. His ability to work through his progressions and deliver an accurate ball is not in question at this point of his career, and he can be lethal working the middle of the field when nobody gets in his face.

Everyone is worse when they get pressured. The average passer sees their QBR drop by more than 42 points, as they post a 66.8 QBR without pressure and a 24.7 mark with the defensive line bearing down. The best quarterback in the league under pressure this season is Dak Prescott, and he has mustered only a 60.9 QBR. Even a below-average quarterback with pass protection is better, by ESPN's metric, than a superstar with a defensive lineman in his face.

All that said, Goff simply melts down. His 8.8 QBR under pressure is 26th in the league, which ranks below the likes of Mac Jones and Zach Wilson. The 68.5-point QBR difference between how Goff has performed with and without pressure is also the largest for any quarterback. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he has the second-worst completion percentage over expected (CPOE) under pressure and has thrown eight picks on just 135 pass attempts under duress. That interception rate is more than twice the league average for pressured quarterbacks.

Could it be a one-year fluke? Maybe. Since 2016, though, 25 quarterbacks have thrown at least 2,000 NFL passes. Goff is 15th out of those 25 signal-callers in QBR without pressure, but he drops to 22nd out of the 25 when opponents do get home with their pass rush. Anyone who has watched Goff play during his time with the Rams and Lions probably has seen him make mistakes and struggle when he doesn't have consistent pass protection.

The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the league on paper, but left tackle Taylor Decker and even right tackle Penei Sewell have gotten beat at times over the past two months. The Packers game on Thanksgiving stands out as a notably rough game for both players. The normally excellent duo has combined to allow eight sacks over the past seven games. Decker, in particular, has struggled with bull rushes and larger linemen outmuscling him of late.

Team to avoid: Dallas Cowboys. Lions fans might feel like they should have beaten the Cowboys after the controversial scenario on Dallas' 2-point play near the end of the game last week, but Detroit was outplayed by Mike McCarthy's team for most of the contest. The Cowboys lost a fumble through the end zone for a touchback and were in position to seal a win late before a questionable tripping call on Peyton Hendershot. The Lions can beat anybody on their day, but there are far more comfortable matchups for the Lions in the NFC.

5. Miami Dolphins

Chances of winning Super Bowl: 3.8%
The Dolphins' flaw: Red zone defense

The return of Jalen Ramsey in late October transformed the Dolphins' defense. The Dolphins were 31st in opponent QBR through the first seven weeks, but after Ramsey returned for Miami's win over New England, they were the league's best defense by QBR over the ensuing eight games. Last week's shellacking by Baltimore dropped the Dolphins from first to second from Week 8 onward, but even with one disastrous performance, improving from 31st to second in opponent QBR tells you a lot about how impactful Ramsey has been for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

The one place Ramsey hasn't been able to make a difference and keep the Dolphins' defense thriving is in the red zone, where the Ravens went 5-for-5 in scoring touchdowns Sunday. While the Dolphins have allowed only 22 trips inside the 20-yard line over the past five games, 15 of them resulted in touchdowns. That 68.2% touchdown rate is the fifth-worst mark in the NFL.

Over the season, the Dolphins have allowed 67.3% of trips inside the 20 to result in touchdowns, which is the fourth-worst mark in the league. If we instead use EPA per play as our measure, the Dolphins are the league's sixth-best defense on a snap-by-snap basis outside of the red zone but its fourth-worst inside the 20.

The good news for the Dolphins is that red zone performance tends to regress toward the mean. Defenses that are great outside the 20 and subpar in the red zone usually see their red zone performance improve over time. Last season, the Chiefs ranked 14th in EPA per play outside the red zone but 28th inside it. They allowed touchdowns in the red zone more than 67% during the regular season, but that dropped to 54% in the playoffs. Limiting the Bengals (1-for-3) and Eagles (3-for-5) inside the 20-yard line probably won the Chiefs the Super Bowl.

Fangio's defense just got standout safety Jevon Holland back from a pair of MCL sprains, but the injuries are piling up elsewhere. Xavien Howard was carted out of last week's game with a foot injury, and the star corner will miss the AFC East decider against the Bills this week. Jaelan Phillips is out for the season with a torn Achilles, and he was joined on the sideline last week by fellow edge rusher Bradley Chubb, who tore his ACL in garbage time and will miss the remainder of the season. Counting on the Dolphins to be a top-five defense without these playmakers -- inside or outside the red zone -- is increasingly difficult.

Team to avoid: Buffalo Bills. Gulp. The Bills have been the league's second-best offense inside the red zone this season, converting 65% into touchdowns. They've also tied for the fourth-most trips inside the 20 for any team, meaning they get into the red zone nearly as often as any NFL team. When these two teams played in Week 4, the Bills went 5-for-6 in the red zone. The Dolphins will need to stop that from happening again this weekend if they want to retain their spot atop the AFC East.

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4. Kansas City Chiefs

Chances of winning Super Bowl: 4.2%
The Chiefs' flaw: Catching passes

Isn't it bizarre that we've come to a point where the biggest concern about the Chiefs is their ability to sustain a viable passing attack? Patrick Mahomes is throwing the shortest average pass in the NFL and ranks 28th in the league in QBR on deep throws, and his wide receivers can't catch anything underneath.

With a Marquez Valdes-Scantling drop against the Bengals as the latest culprit, Chiefs' wide receivers continue to let opportunities literally slip through their hands. The numbers I wrote about earlier this season haven't shifted much; Andy Reid's wideouts are dropping 7.5% of the passes thrown in their direction, the worst mark for any NFL team by a comfortable margin. With one Mahomes-less game left to go before the playoffs, it seems likely that the Chiefs' wide receivers will finish with the worst drop rate in a single season for any team over the past decade.

Earlier in the season, I wasn't as concerned about the offense, in part because tight end Travis Kelce was still maintaining his prior levels of efficiency. At the risk of angering Taylor Swift fans, I regretfully have to inform the public that Kelce's performance has declined. Over the first half of the season, Kelce was averaging 2.64 yards per route run, which was the ninth-best mark for any player in football and even better than the 2.44 yards per route run he averaged during an incredible 2022 campaign. But since Week 10, he has averaged 1.61 yards per route run. That's a reasonable figure, but it's in line with what players like Tucker Kraft and Evan Engram are producing over the same time frame. Owing to heavy focuses in coverage, Kelce is also getting targeted on 20.4% of his routes, down from 28.5% a year ago.

I would expect the Chiefs to boost Kelce's snap rate from the 80% range he has been in for most of the regular season to north of 90% during the postseason, but he hasn't been the All-World tight end we know and love for two months. The Kelce of the first half was on pace for a 114-catch, 1,194-yard season. The second-half Kelce prorates out to 87 catches for 940 yards.

Jerick McKinnon was able to become a valuable part of the offense as a receiving back during the second half of the season in 2022, but he is on injured reserve with a groin issue, and it's unclear whether he'll return for the playoffs. Reports before last week's game suggested that Richie James and Justyn Ross could see expanded roles alongside rookie Rashee Rice (who missed practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury), but James and Ross combined for one catch and 6 yards on 19 offensive snaps against the Bengals.

Team to avoid: Cleveland Browns. Jim Schwartz's defense has the league's best QBR against running backs and tight ends this season. Only the Panthers (of all teams) have allowed fewer receiving yards per game to backs and tight ends than the Browns. A matchup where Mahomes needs to throw to his wide receivers might not go well.

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3. Dallas Cowboys

Chances of winning Super Bowl: 11.9%
The Cowboys' flaw: Rush defense

The Cowboys are built to be bullies. They have a great passing attack that's designed to get Dallas ahead early in contests, or at the very least dare teams to chase them in shootouts. Once the Cowboys get a lead and make you one-dimensional on offense, it's curtains. Their pass rush is too dominant when they get to pin their ears back and go after the quarterback, and the secondary has too many ball hawks. If you toss the ball up 40 or 50 times, they will nab a pick or two.

If you get an early lead, though, you've got a shot. The Cowboys aren't as effective when they're forced into a dropback passing attack. More noticeably, though, the Cowboys struggle to stop the run. They're 31st in defensive success rate against the run, meaning opposing offenses stay ahead of schedule or pick up first downs or touchdowns on the ground at the NFL's second-highest rate. A team that doesn't have Leighton Vander Esch right now and uses 205-pound converted safety Markquese Bell as a starting safety most weeks doesn't want to be in a position to chase down ball carriers over and over again as the game goes along.

We've seen this pop up repeatedly in Cowboys losses. In Week 3, the Cardinals ran the ball 30 times for 222 yards and two scores, the 12th-most rushing yards by any team in a single game all season. The 49ers dropped 41 carries for 170 yards in their blowout win a couple of weeks later, albeit in a game where the Cowboys held Christian McCaffrey to 51 yards on 19 rush attempts. The Bills really sealed the image of the Cowboys, though, by racking up 266 rushing yards on 49 carries in their comfortable victory over Dallas in December, including a 25-carry, 179-yard performance from James Cook.

The Cowboys aren't the biggest team at the second and third level, but their issues on defense haven't really been about tackling. They're getting outmuscled at the line of scrimmage. Opposing rushers average 2.7 yards before first contact against the Cowboys, which is 23rd in the league. In their losses this season, that figure rises to 3.0, which is 29th. Without slowing down those backs, the Cowboys allow running backs to reach 15-plus mph at the eighth-highest rate of any NFL team, amounting to nearly 22% of opposing carries (NFL Next Gen Stats).

Team to avoid: San Francisco 49ers. Well, you've seen the two recent playoff games and the blowout loss earlier this season, right? The Niners convert 29.4% of their rush attempts into first downs, the NFL's second-best rate, and 46% of their runs result in successful plays for the offense by EPA, which is fourth best. McCaffrey's calf injury could complicate things, but Jordan Mason had 10 carries for a season-high 69 yards when these two teams played earlier this season.

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2. Baltimore Ravens

Chances of winning Super Bowl: 28.9%
The Ravens' flaw: Fumbles

The Ravens have been their own worst enemy. Their three losses have mostly come down to sloppy play and unforced errors. Some of that amounts to drops: The Ravens have a league average drop rate of 3.8% in their victories but a whopping 8.7% drop rate across their defeats, comfortably the worst mark in football. Ravens fans will be hoping to avoid a repeat of the 2019 playoff loss to the Titans, where Mark Andrews and the rest of the Baltimore receiving corps suddenly lost their ability to catch passes.

The other factor that has stood out for the Ravens in their setbacks? Fumbles. Baltimore has fumbled on about 2% of its offensive snaps, which is just over the league average -- but those fumbles have disproportionately appeared in losses. The Ravens have fumbled 13 times across their 13 victories, but they've fumbled eight times in their three losses. They held onto the ball against the Browns in Week 10, but they fumbled four times against the Colts in Week 3 and four more times against the Steelers in Week 5.

The Ravens lost four of those fumbles, and the mistakes produced only six points for opposing offenses. But Jackson & Co. had their own drives ended by the turnovers. The Ravens didn't score on any of the drives in those games where they recovered their own fumbles, which is stifling and frustrating for an offense that scores at the NFL's fourth-highest rate.

Ravens fans will naturally hope that the four-fumble days are a thing of the past. Jackson had a habit of holding the ball far away from his body earlier this season, though he has rectified that. One of the fumbles was on a bad snap from backup center Sam Mustipher, while a second was by reserve running back Kenyan Drake; the latter player is no longer with the organization, while Mustipher has played 18 offensive snaps over the past 13 games behind Tyler Linderbaum. The players taking those snaps at running back and center may be less likely to make mistakes.

Even with the drops and fumbles, the Ravens have still led at the two-minute warning in their defeats, which means they came remarkably close to becoming the third team in league history to win their first 17 games in a season. Any team that comes up against Baltimore is going to be a little worried about its chances. The biggest threat to the Ravens might be the Ravens themselves.

Team to avoid: Cleveland Browns. The Browns have forced fumbles on 2.9% of opposing snaps, the highest mark for any defense. The Jaguars are just behind them at 2.7%, though they were the only team that fumbled when Baltimore traveled to Jacksonville earlier this month, with Trevor Lawrence losing both fumbles to set up 10 points for John Harbaugh's team.

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1. San Francisco 49ers

Chances of winning Super Bowl: 34.9%
The 49ers' flaw: Interceptions

Like the Ravens, the 49ers are so good that we have to focus on something that has strictly been a problem for them in losses as opposed to something that has ailed them throughout the season. In Brock Purdy's 12 victories this season, he has thrown two interceptions across 324 pass attempts. That's an interception rate of 0.6%. Quarterbacks obviously throw interceptions less often in victories, but Purdy's interception rate is less than half the league average rate of 1.4%.

In Purdy's four losses, though? He has tossed nine picks on 120 pass attempts, for an interception rate of 7.5%. Again, while interceptions happen more in losses than victories, his rate of picks in defeats is more than twice the league average rate of 2.9%.

Of course, there's a chicken-or-the-egg question here. The 49ers are more likely to lose because Purdy is tossing interceptions, as opposed to Purdy simply throwing interceptions in games that happen to be defeats. Three of Purdy's losses have come against the Browns, Ravens and Vikings, who have three of the four best defenses.

Do Purdy's interceptions come in bunches? He hasn't played long enough for us to really know, and I'm not sure that Purdy loses confidence or gets shaky once he has thrown a pick, but I do think there's something to that idea. It has less to do with confidence and more to do with game script.

During his career with the 49ers, Purdy has been blessed with a great defense and excellent playmakers. He has spent the vast majority of his career playing from ahead. Being in those situations allows the 49ers to present the threat of the run, work their play-action game and create opportunities for their receivers to run away from defenders after the catch.

When the 49ers are trailing and Purdy's being forced to drop back and throw in obvious passing situations, the game changes. We have only 108 dropbacks from Purdy in those situations as a pro, and his numbers haven't been terrible by any means -- but he has thrown four picks and lost two fumbles on those plays. It's very difficult to get back in games when you're turning the ball over once every 18 dropbacks.

We saw that in the Ravens game. Purdy didn't play terribly after a bad first interception, but the Baltimore defense had little trouble anticipating and jumping where he wanted to go with the football. He has gotten a reputation as a game manager because he posts low turnover rates most of the time, but anyone who has watched him closely would tell you that Purdy trusts his reads and receivers, and he is very willing to put the ball in danger, especially when the 49ers need to catch up. On good days, he makes throws like this one and they turn into touchdowns. On bad days, those are picks.

Team to avoid: Baltimore Ravens. This one seems a little obvious given how we just saw the Ravens dominate the 49ers in San Francisco, but Baltimore also has been the NFL's best starting team. The Ravens have the best first quarter (plus-66, tied with the Cowboys) and first half (plus-142) point differentials, making them the most likely team to get out to an early lead against the 49ers. And as we saw on Christmas, if the Ravens get that lead, watch out.