2024 NFL quarterback market: 13 teams that could add starters

Most likely QB they'll pursue: I would be surprised if the Cardinals moved on from Murray, but if they do, it would be for a quarterback in the top 10 of the draft. Given that they can't ensure they'll land one of the big three if they finish outside of the top three picks, Murray might be able to ensure his future in Arizona by beating the Bears, Eagles or Seahawks down the stretch.

Atlanta Falcons

Current starter: Taylor Heinicke

What happened in Week 15: Amid awful conditions in Carolina, Desmond Ridder went 12-of-20 for 152 yards. He threw a touchdown pass but also threw a back-breaking interception near the goal line on a play in which nothing seemed to go right. The Falcons lost 9-7 to the lowly Panthers, fell out of a three-way tie with the Buccaneers and Saints atop the NFC South and then benched Ridder for Heinicke on Tuesday morning.

How has it gone in 2023? Not well. Ridder has led four game-winning drives in the fourth quarter, but he also has more turnovers (16, with 10 interceptions and six fumbles) than touchdowns (15, with 10 through the air and five on the ground). Six of those turnovers have come in the red zone, which has been particularly crushing for a team that ranks 27th in points per possession.

Ridder has been inconsistent at best. In October, after coach Arthur Smith dismissed criticism of Ridder as "toxic groupthink" from people who didn't understand film, Ridder was removed from a game to undergo a concussion evaluation, cleared the protocol but did not return to the field. Heinicke started the following week, but after he suffered a hamstring injury, Smith returned Ridder to the starting role. Now, after Ridder's latest performance, Smith is going back to Heinicke with the season on the line.

Contract for 2024: Ridder will be entering Year 3 of a modest rookie deal that would pay him just under $1.2 million. Heinicke could make up to $7 million. Neither player has any guaranteed money left on his contract, so the Falcons have total flexibility in moving on if they're so inclined.

Other internal candidates: The third quarterback is Logan Woodside, who threw three passes for the Titans in 2020.

Ties to any likely free agents: If Smith returns, one obvious option is deposed Titans starter Ryan Tannehill. Smith was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee when Tannehill arrived in 2019 and helped turn around the quarterback's career with a downfield play-action passing attack. Tannehill will be an unrestricted free agent, although the former college wideout is now 35 years old and didn't play well before losing his job.

Offensive coordinator Dave Ragone was the quarterbacks coach and then the passing game coordinator during Mitch Trubisky's run with the Bears. General manager Terry Fontenot, meanwhile, was the vice president of Pro Personnel with the Saints when they signed Jameis Winston in 2020. Much depends on whether the Falcons return the same staff that has been disappointing on offense.

Most likely QB they'll pursue: Given that the defense has been playing well and Fontenot has been aggressive in using first-round picks to add offensive playmakers, I would expect the Falcons to pursue a quarterback in the first round. FPI projects Atlanta to land the 11th pick, which would put it in position for someone from the second or third tier of quarterback prospects, such as Daniels, J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) or Shedeur Sanders (Colorado), if they enter the draft. Bringing in Tannehill as a bridge option and mentor wouldn't hurt.

Chicago Bears

Current starter: Justin Fields

What happened in Week 15: Another heartbreaking loss for the Bears, who led for most of the game in Cleveland until a preposterous Joe Flacco touchdown pass with 3:08 left tied what eventually would be a 20-17 Browns victory. Fields scrambled and threw a beautiful touchdown pass to Cole Kmet, but facing one of the league's toughest defenses, the third-year passer went 19-of-40 for 166 yards with a touchdown and two picks, both of which came on Hail Mary attempts at the end of halves. He was also tripped up on a critical fourth-and-1 carry in the second half after some questionable blocking on the edge by Darnell Mooney.

How has it gone in 2023? It has been more of the same. Fields has had incredible highs, but the lows have been very low, especially during an ugly start in September. He also has missed time with a dislocated right thumb that cost him a month of action.

Fields isn't surrounded by superstars, but after the Bears imported DJ Moore and invested in their offensive line, the hope was that he would take a leap. That hasn't happened. There have been signs of growth and a few spectacular moments, but he has posted a 42.5 QBR, down from 56.3 a year ago. He's averaging a career-low 6.7 yards per attempt and is taking sacks on more than 10% of his dropbacks. His offensive line still isn't great, but even when he hasn't been pressured, his 51.2 QBR ranks 26th among 29 qualifying passers.

The huge runs that made Fields a human highlight reel each week last season haven't been back. He averaged a league-high (for quarterbacks) 76.2 rushing yards per game last season and had seven runs of 30 yards or more. No other quarterback had more than two such runs. This season, he is down to 48.8 rushing yards per game, in part because he doesn't have a single run of 30-plus yards.

The best thing that has happened to the Bears over the past few months involves what has happened in Carolina. The Panthers are 2-12 and are about to send their first-round pick to Chicago as part of the Bryce Young trade from April. Between their own first-rounder and Carolina's selection, the Bears have a 94.9% chance of landing one of the top two picks, which would afford them the ability to either find a replacement for Fields or surround him with multiple first-round picks in the years to come.

Contract for 2024: Fields is owed $3.2 million guaranteed in what will be the final year of his rookie deal. The Bears (or whichever team acquires Fields) will need to make a decision this spring on his fifth-year option, which would guarantee him a projected $22 million for 2025. If he stays, Chicago would likely pick up the option in advance of negotiating a longer-term deal.

Other internal candidates: Undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent came off the bench and led the Bears to wins over the Raiders and Panthers. He posted a better QBR than Fields, in part because he completed passes more often and took sacks at one-third the rate of his counterpart. On the other hand, he threw six interceptions in 4½ games and ran for only 23 yards per contest. Nathan Peterman is also on the roster, although he'll be a free agent after the season.

Ties to any likely free agents: Coach Matt Eberflus was the defensive coordinator with the Colts when Jacoby Brissett was thrust into the starting lineup after Andrew Luck's retirement in 2019. It's possible the Bears could add a new backup to either mentor a rookie or provide a higher floor when Fields misses time, but they wouldn't be in the market for a significant veteran addition to start.

Most likely QB they'll pursue: Maye or Williams. Trading Fields likely would land the Bears a top-40 pick to replace the one they sent the Commanders for Montez Sweat. If Fields was a no-doubt franchise quarterback, this would be a tough choice, but the ability to add a better prospect at a cheaper cost is an opportunity the Bears can't afford to miss.

Denver Broncos

Current starter: Russell Wilson

What happened in Week 15: Presented with an opportunity to confirm their playoff bona fides and establish a stronghold in the AFC wild-card race, the Broncos were torched by the Lions in Detroit. The 42-17 final score might actually undersell how dominant the Lions were in victory. Wilson went 18-of-32 for 223 yards and a touchdown pass, although he lost a fumble on the opening drive to cost the Broncos a red zone opportunity. There was also a flashpoint of tension after an offensive offside penalty, a pair of near-scores eventually yielded a field goal and coach Sean Payton shouting at Wilson, with Payton refusing to reveal what the two discussed after the game.

How has it gone in 2023? Wilson's somewhere between the downfield bomber we saw in Seattle and the broken quarterback we saw in his debut season with the Broncos. Payton has clearly put a mandate on Wilson to get the ball out underneath when he sees something open, leading to an offense where Wilson is averaging just 6.6 air yards per attempt, which ranks 27th in the league. You can thrive in an offense throwing short passes -- Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow are two of the three quarterbacks who have thrown shorter average passes than Wilson -- but Wilson has virtually no intermediate game.

Despite major investments in linemen Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey last offseason, Wilson has been pressured on more than 39% of his dropbacks this season, ahead of only Fields. His propensity for scrambling can result in pressures late in his dropbacks, but the Broncos have too many plays blown up by immediate pressure on Wilson because someone either makes a mental mistake or blows a block. Wilson was able to run away from those mistakes in the past, but the 35-year-old isn't as mobile as he was during his peak years in Seattle.

On the whole, Wilson has an even 50.0 QBR, which ranks 20th. He's 16th in adjusted net yards per attempt and 21st in EPA per dropback. Regardless of what number you use, pegging Wilson as something around an average quarterback seems fair.

Contract for 2024: Well, the Broncos aren't paying Wilson like an average quarterback. Wilson's five-year extension is for an average of $48.5 million per season, and given that the Broncos acquired Wilson with two years left to go on his existing pact, those seasons haven't even started to come off the books, even while the Broncos have already paid Wilson $34 million more than what they would have owed him on that Seahawks deal.

The Broncos could designate Wilson as a post-June 1 release after the season and owe $85 million in dead money, spread over two seasons. They would be on the hook for $35.4 million in 2024 and $49.6 million in 2025. Denver would also owe Wilson $39 million in cash for 2024. I'm not sure if making that move would torpedo their chances of being competitive in the AFC West, but Payton would need to find a low-cost solution at quarterback and try to win with a different sort of roster-building philosophy.

Trading Wilson before June 1 would leave the Broncos with a staggering $68 million in dead money next season, unless Denver could convince the acquiring team to pay his $22 million option bonus. The acquiring team would owe Wilson $54 million over the next two seasons if it didn't pick up the bonus (and $76 million if it did), which seems exorbitant for a quarterback of Wilson's recent performance. At this point, Wilson's deal is realistically underwater. It should have negative trade value, but the quarterback market is irrational.

Other internal candidates: Payton signed former Patriots backup Jarrett Stidham to a two-year, $10 million pact last offseason. His first four snaps of the season came in garbage time against the Lions last week. Stidham is due $7 million next season, but only $1 million is guaranteed. Former Cowboys backup Ben DiNucci is the third-string option.

Ties to any likely free agents: A lot! Payton was in New Orleans for a generation, and while Drew Brees was his first-choice option, the Saints turned to the likes of Jameis Winston, Teddy Bridgewater and Trevor Siemian when injuries struck toward the end of Payton's run. (Bridgewater has already announced that he'll retire after the 2023 season.) There's also the presence of one Taysom Hill, who won seven of his nine starts at quarterback during the Payton era, although Hill is under contract through 2026 in New Orleans.

General manager George Paton, meanwhile, was the assistant GM with the Vikings when they signed Kirk Cousins. It's difficult to imagine a scenario where the Broncos have the cap space to both shed Wilson's deal and sign Cousins, but if they want to pursue a Saints-esque cap philosophy, they'll find a way.

Most likely QB they'll pursue: A developmental option behind Wilson. The most logical thing for the Broncos to do is move forward another year with Wilson and reevaluate in 2025, when the dead money on his contract would be easier to resolve. Payton needs to start preparing for that scenario now, so it would hardly be a surprise if the Broncos used a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on a quarterback prospect.

Las Vegas Raiders

Current starter: Aidan O'Connell

What happened in Week 15: You could say it went well. The Raiders dropped 63 points on the rival Chargers in what will go down as Brandon Staley's last game as the coach in Los Angeles. O'Connell was blessed with a few short fields, but he went 20-of-34 for 248 yards with four touchdown passes in his best pro start to date.

How has it gone in 2023? The Chargers win was the highlight of a disappointing year. The Raiders imported Jimmy Garoppolo to start under former Patriots coordinator Josh McDaniels, but Garoppolo was hurt when he signed his deal and never settled in Vegas. He threw nine interceptions on just 168 pass attempts, and after giving O'Connell and Brian Hoyer starts while Garoppolo was injured, McDaniels was fired. The team installed Antonio Pierce as head coach and logically made O'Connell its starter for the remainder of the season.

The dream game against the Chargers improved O'Connell's performance to adequate. While he has exceeded expectations for a typical fourth-round rookie thrust into a starting role, he's at or below average in every quarterback metric. O'Connell's 35.4 QBR ranks 33rd out of 43 quarterbacks with 100 pass attempts or more this season, just ahead of Garoppolo, whose 34.8 mark is 34th. He doesn't have NFL mobility, and pressure reduces him to dust; he averages 0.6 yards per dropback when pressured, which is 41st out of those 43 passers.

Contract for 2024: O'Connell will be in Year 2 of his rookie deal. Barring a stunning turn of events, the Raiders will release Garoppolo, who will end up making just over $35 million for six starts in a Raiders uniform. And $11.3 million of that figure is in a guaranteed bonus that comes due next season. Vegas will have nearly $29 million in dead money for Garoppolo spread over the next two years on its cap.

Hoyer is under contract next season and his $2.2 million is fully guaranteed, which was a nice little parting gift from McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler. The Raiders may choose to just cut Hoyer and eat the money, although the 38-year-old could serve as a player-coach as the No. 3 option.

Other internal candidates: Well, receiver Jakobi Meyers did throw a touchdown pass against the Chargers.

Ties to any likely free agents: It's tough to say, in part because we don't know who the Raiders will have running operations after the season. Pierce has gone 3-3 as the interim coach and doesn't have any significant NFL ties as a coach, given that he hadn't spent any time on the sidelines in the league before joining the Raiders.

The interim GM is Champ Kelly, who worked underneath Ryan Pace in Chicago as the director of pro scouting and assistant director of player personnel. Those Bears teams mostly revolved around Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, although Andy Dalton did spend the 2021 season in Chicago with limited results. Trubisky could be a bridge option to a rookie or backup to O'Connell.

Most likely QB they'll pursue: A lot depends on the final three weeks. If O'Connell plays well and Pierce wins the interim job, the Raiders might talk themselves into moving forward with the Purdue product for 2024 and re-evaluating after that season, which would probably mean signing a veteran backup like Trubisky. If not, well, what happens next depends on who the Raiders hire to take over the coach and general manager roles and how much leash they'd have to rebuild the organization.

Minnesota Vikings

Current starter: Nick Mullens

What happened in Week 15: The fourth in a series of starters for the Vikings this season, Mullens seemed intent on testing the laws of physics throughout Saturday's game against the Bengals. He threw two interceptions and could have easily had two or three more passes picked off. But he also went 26-of-33 for 303 yards and had the Vikings in position to win the game before a late Bengals drive to tie it in regulation, a stuffed sneak in overtime and an eventual game-winning field goal from Evan McPherson.

How has it gone in 2023? It has gone in every which direction. Kirk Cousins was playing excellent football before tearing his Achilles. Jaren Hall stepped in and immediately suffered a concussion before giving way to recent acquisition Joshua Dobbs, who led the Vikings to back-to-back victories. Dobbs lost two straight and then won a 3-0 nailbiter with the Raiders before being benched for Mullens, who spent time on injured reserve with a back injury.

Without receiver Justin Jefferson and with a rotating cast of quarterbacks, the Vikings should be toast. Instead, a defense that has made the single largest improvement from year-to-year of any unit in the league under Brian Flores has kept the Vikings in games. Since Week 4, the Vikings are sixth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed, which has them in the wild-card hunt alongside three other teams at 7-7.

Contract for 2024: Cousins and Dobbs are both free agents. Mullens is under contract for a total of $1.9 million, none of which is guaranteed. Hall, a fifth-round pick, will enter the second year of his rookie deal. The Vikings will eat $28.5 million in dead money when Cousins' contract voids if they don't bring the 35-year-old back next season, so they're more incentivized to sign him than most other teams.

Other internal candidates: Coach Kevin O'Connell went 4-of-6 for 23 yards in garbage time for the 2008 Patriots.

Ties to any likely free agents: Well, Cousins and Dobbs, obviously. O'Connell was the offensive coordinator in Washington as the Commanders cycled through various options, but the only veterans from that group still left in the league are Case Keenum and Josh Johnson. It seems inevitable that Johnson, the ultimate journeyman, will somehow end up playing for the Vikings before the end of the season.

GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah spent a significant amount of time in San Francisco, both before and during Jimmy Garoppolo's time by the Bay. He served as the director of football operations with the Browns while Baker Mayfield was having his best pro season, although Mayfield's time with Cleveland didn't exactly end on glorious terms. Keenum was also there as a backup, as was Mullens.

Most likely QB they'll pursue: A reunion with Cousins makes the most sense. The defense has taken enough of a leap forward to compete immediately, and the passing attack was absolutely humming before Cousins went down injured. With Cousins' path to a Kyle Shanahan reunion blocked by Brock Purdy in San Francisco and the Vikings not really in position to ensure landing a top quarterback prospect in the draft, a two-year deal with void seasons for cap purposes would make sense for the Vikings.

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New England Patriots

Current starter: Bailey Zappe

What happened in Week 15: Even a weakened version of the Chiefs was always going to be too much for the Patriots. New England led 10-7 for most of the second quarter, but the Chiefs scored 20 consecutive points to take control of the game. Zappe went 23-of-31, but he generated only 180 yards and threw a back-breaking interception to set up a Chiefs touchdown in the third quarter.

How has it gone in 2023? I've written at length about what has gone wrong with the Patriots, but a simple answer might be: bad. Mac Jones was benched on multiple occasions, with a two-interception performance against the Giants seemingly sending him to the bench permanently. Zappe has inherited the job and led the Pats to a win over the Steelers, but coach Bill Belichick was willing to cut Zappe before the season without worrying that he would lose the second-year quarterback on waivers. Even worse, he was right.

Between Jones and Zappe, the Patriots have produced a 34.5 QBR this season. Only the Browns, Panthers, Giants and Jets have been worse. The Pats are 30th in points scored per drive and EPA per play, ahead of just the teams from New Jersey. Again: bad!

Contract for 2024: Jones will be entering the final season of his rookie deal, which will be for $2.8 million guaranteed. The Alabama product's fifth-year option for 2025 will be declined, either by the Patriots or whichever team has the rights to Jones by the May deadline. Zappe will be under contract for $985,000 before becoming a possible restricted free agent in 2025.

Other internal candidates: The Pats have had the likes of Matt Corral, Will Grier and Malik Cunningham on their roster, but after Grier was signed away from the practice squad by the Chargers this week, the No. 3 option is former BC Lions quarterback Nathan Rourke. In addition to his time in Vancouver, Rourke should be known for one of the greatest plays in preseason history. He broke four Cowboys tackles before throwing a touchdown pass as he fell down. He deserved an NFL opportunity for that play alone.

Ties to any likely free agents: The most notable one will be Garoppolo, who is likely to come free and spent the first three-plus seasons of his career in New England before being traded to San Francisco. Garoppolo is not the long-term future for Belichick, but as a bridge quarterback or short-term starter, it would be an obvious move for the Patriots. Of course, if Belichick's no longer the coach, whoever takes over will have different allegiances to quarterbacks from their past.

Most likely QB they'll pursue: I laid out various scenarios earlier this week, but with their odds of landing one of the top two picks in the 2024 draft up over 59%, the logical move would be for the Patriots to go after Williams or Maye, with Jones either serving as the backup or a trade candidate.

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New Orleans Saints

Current starter: Derek Carr

What happened in Week 15: It was Bizarro World in the Caesars Superdome. After a year of being infuriated by their team falling to pieces in the red zone, Saints fans saw the offense score touchdowns on each of their two trips inside the 20. They even added a score from the 23-yard line for good measure. Carr went 23-of-28 for 218 yards and three scores in a comfortable 24-6 victory over the Giants.

How has it gone in 2023? Week 15 was the exception to the rule of a frustrating season. Carr has been booed off the field by the home fans in multiple games, as he has struggled to find a rhythm with his receivers and has overseen an offense that has failed to score as much as a field goal on 10 of its trips inside the red zone this season. Only the Jaguars have been stuffed inside the 20 more often.

Carr has also left multiple games with injuries, but he has managed to start all 14 contests. His 92.5 passer rating feels solid, but he's averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt. He isn't getting much help from his receivers, who have dropped 4% of his passes and averaged just 4.6 yards after the catch, which ranks 26th in the league. An injured Carr has most often given way to Jameis Winston, who has a 57.4 passer rating on 47 dropbacks as the primary backup.

Contract for 2024: To fit Carr in under their perennially disastrous cap situation, the Saints gave him a $28.5 million signing bonus and guaranteed him a total of $61.5 million in base salaries. As a result, even if the Saints wanted to cut Carr after this season, they would be on the hook for $30 million in 2024 and $10 million more in 2025.

He also has a no-trade clause, so the veteran would need to approve any deal away from New Orleans. The Saints would avoid that $40 million in remaining guarantees by trading him, but they would still incur nearly $23 million in dead money on their 2024 cap. Unless he desperately wants out of New Orleans, though, his deal's not going anywhere until 2025.

Other internal candidates: Winston is a free agent after the season. Taysom Hill is on the roster next season, as is fourth-round pick Jake Haener, who was suspended for six games after violating the league's PED policy.

Ties to any likely free agents: The staff in New Orleans almost all dates back to the Payton era, so there aren't many outsiders who would have ties to other players. Bridgewater was once a beloved backup in New Orleans, but he's retiring after the season. Dalton was impressive with the Saints in 2022, although he's under contract for the Panthers next season.

Most likely QB they'll pursue: I would expect the Saints to bring in a veteran to give Haener competition for the backup job, but given Carr's contract situation, major changes are unlikely in New Orleans.

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Pittsburgh Steelers

Current starter: Mason Rudolph

What happened in Week 15: The second Mitch Trubisky era in Pittsburgh came to a very abrupt ending, as the former Bears starter was benched after a fourth-quarter interception against the Colts. The Steelers converted two short fields into 13 points to start the game, only for the Colts to roll off 30 unanswered points and hand Mike Tomlin's team its third consecutive defeat.

How has it gone in 2023? Well, it was great in the preseason. From that point forward, the offense has been a mess. Kenny Pickett looked lost before getting injured, Najee Harris lost his role as the lead back, and offensive coordinator Matt Canada was fired. After Saturday, both of the team's top wide receivers have been subjected to criticism for not hustling in key situations. Diontae Johnson apologized to the team for not diving for a fumble, while George Pickens' explanation for choosing not to aggressively block a defender at the goal line was more curious: The second-year wideout simply wanted to avoid getting injured.

After offseason hopes that 2023 could be a breakout season, Pickett was essentially the same player he was as a rookie. The former Pitt quarterback is slow to process, holds onto the ball too long and doesn't reliably anticipate receivers coming open. He doesn't turn the ball over very often, which led to Pittsburgh's bizarre streak of winning games without outgaining their opponents, but Pickett has converted just 28.1% of his pass attempts this season into first downs. The only quarterback moving the chains less often has been Carolina's Bryce Young.

Contract for 2024: Pickett will be entering Year 3 of his fully guaranteed rookie deal. Trubisky has two years left on the extension he signed with the Steelers, but after his benching for Mason Rudolph, it would be a surprise if the 2017 second-overall pick was back with Pittsburgh in 2024. There's no guaranteed money remaining on his pact.

Rudolph, who hasn't been a regular for Pittsburgh since 2019, will make his first start in more than two years on Sunday. He's making the league minimum and is a free agent after the season. It's fair to wonder whether these final few games of 2023 represent Rudolph's last chance at sticking in the NFL.

Other internal candidates: Former Ravens and Cardinals backup Trace McSorley is on the practice squad.

Ties to any likely free agents: Quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan served as the offensive coordinator for the Broncos in 2018, and his starter there was Case Keenum. (If you haven't noticed, Keenum has connections with just about every coaching staff in the league.) He was also the offensive coordinator for the Giants during the Ben McAdoo era, when the backup for Eli Manning was current Seahawks starter Geno Smith. Smith isn't a free agent, but if the Seahawks make a change at quarterback, I wonder if the Steelers would consider trading for him.

Most likely QB they'll pursue: I would be surprised if the Steelers gave up on Pickett entirely, but stiffer competition for the 2022 first-round pick should be on the way. The Steelers can't afford to waste another season of T.J. Watt's prime on an offense that bumbles through games week after week. If they hire an offensive coordinator from outside the building to replace interim Eddie Faulkner, I wonder if the new guy will bring a quarterback to the Steel City.

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Seattle Seahawks

Current starter: Drew Lock

What happened in Week 15: Making his second start for an injured Geno Smith, Lock spent most of the game handing the ball off to Kenneth Walker III. Forced to throw in the fourth quarter, though, Lock went 8-of-14 for 112 yards, including a deep ball to DK Metcalf and the game-winning touchdown to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The resulting celebration between Lock and Smith was one of the best moments of the season. The 20-17 Seahawks win snapped their four-game losing streak and pushed Seattle firmly back into the NFC playoff race.

How has it gone in 2023? It has been a frustrating season. The Seahawks have talented playmakers, but when healthy, Smith has struggled for consistency from drive-to-drive. The completion percentage over expectation (NFL Next Gen Stats) and off-target numbers suggest Smith is still one of the most accurate passers in all of football, but he's also throwing passes at or behind the line of scrimmage at the sixth-highest rate in football.

On the whole, Smith has been about a league-average quarterback, but after an impressive 2022 and with the playmakers the Seahawks have at running back and receiver, there are Seahawks fans who expected more from him in 2023. I'd argue that the offensive line woes have been to blame for Seattle's struggles, but as Smith, 33, gets set to return from groin and shoulder injuries to start against the Titans on Sunday, the next three games may end up determining what things look like for the Seahawks next season.

Contract for 2024: Lock is a free agent, and after signing a one-year, $4 million deal with the team last offseason, it wouldn't be a surprise if he inked a similar deal again this time around. Smith, meanwhile, is owed $22.5 million next season, but none of that money is guaranteed until the fifth day of the league year in mid-March. If the Seahawks want to go in a different direction under center, they would have the flexibility to make a move.

Other internal candidates: The practice squad quarterback is Sean Mannion, 31, who started three different Week 17 games for the Rams and Vikings earlier in his career.

Ties to any likely free agents: Quarterbacks coach Greg Olson has been all over the league. He served as the offensive coordinator under Jon Gruden for Derek Carr with the Raiders for four seasons, but Carr is under contract and has a no-trade clause. He also served as an assistant for the Rams, most recently in 2022, where he helped Baker Mayfield prepare for his late-season run in Los Angeles.

Most likely QB they'll pursue: Barring a disastrous end to the season, I think that the Seahawks should (and will) stay put with Smith for another season. GM John Schneider & Co. could choose to draft a developmental prospect behind Smith and Lock, although they'll be without their second-round pick after sending it to the Giants for Leonard Williams. They do have an extra third-rounder after an ill-advised trade by the Broncos to move up in last year's draft.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Current starter: Baker Mayfield

What happened in Week 15: In what was likely his best start as a pro, Mayfield threw the ball all over the field in a critical win over the Packers. He set career highs for passing yards (381), yards per attempt (13.6) and first downs (19). He threw four touchdown passes for just the third time in his pro career. The only blemishes on Mayfield's day were an early fumble and five sacks. I don't think he will ever have a better day as a passer.

How has it gone in 2023? Overall, the Buccaneers have to be pleased, given that they're paying Mayfield only $4 million before considering incentives. Mayfield is 17th in the league in QBR and 10th in EPA per dropback, and he has thrown 24 touchdown passes against eight picks. He has done that with no running game and without the presence of star center Ryan Jensen, who wasn't able to make it back from his knee injury.

Contract for 2024: Mayfield is an unrestricted free agent. The Bucs could theoretically franchise Mayfield if they insist on keeping him around, but with players such as Mike Evans, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Devin White also on expiring deals, a tag is unlikely. Backup Kyle Trask, who lost the quarterback competition to Mayfield in camp and has thrown just 10 career passes through three seasons, will be entering the final year of his rookie deal.

Other internal candidates: The third-string quarterback is former Rams backup John Wolford, 28, who started a playoff game for the Rams during the 2020 postseason before getting injured and giving way to Jared Goff. Wolford also started three games for an injured Matthew Stafford a season ago and has a 59.2 career passer rating on 104 attempts.

Ties to any likely free agents: Offensive coordinator Dave Canales spent the entirety of his NFL career up until this season working with the Seahawks, eventually taking over as their quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator. He has seen the best of Russell Wilson, so if the Broncos do decide to trade their starter and the Buccaneers are desperate for a solution, Canales would be able to give them the scoop.

Most likely QB they'll pursue: The Bucs are currently the favorites to win the NFC South, which would be a feather in Mayfield's cap after he was unceremoniously tossed aside by the Browns and Panthers. If Mayfield leads Tampa Bay to a division title and a home playoff game, it would be tough to imagine the Bucs letting him walk out the door in free agency after the season. A prospect to replace Trask on Day 2 of the draft seems plausible. If Mayfield struggles to finish the season, though, just about anything is on the table.

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Tennessee Titans

Current starter: Will Levis

What happened in Week 15: Levis looked all right when he actually had time to throw the football. While the second-round pick went 19-of-26 for 199 yards and had a rushing score in the loss to Houston, Levis threw an interception and was sacked seven times on 32 dropbacks by the Texans, who didn't even have top edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. active. Levis was sacked three times on two drives in overtime and appeared to suffer a leg injury on the final takedown, although Levis' comments afterward suggested that he avoided suffering something that will keep him out for an extended period of time.

How has it gone in 2023? The Titans have looked broken for most of the season. One of the few exceptions was Levis' first start as a pro, when he threw for 238 yards and four touchdowns in a win over the Falcons. After half a season at the helm, that performance looks like an outlier; while he attempts the deepest average pass in all of football, Levis is completing just 59% of his throws. He also has the third-highest rate of off-target throws for any quarterback.

Behind a dismal offensive line, Levis has also been sacked on 9.5% of his dropbacks, which is the fourth-worst mark in football. The other quarterbacks behind him are typically holding the ball for a long time, but Levis' average sack comes after just 4.1 seconds, which is the third-quickest rate for any passer in the league. I'm willing to put some of the blame there on ill-considered offensive line choices, but Levis probably can't survive in the long term taking sacks this often at the pro level.

The starter to begin the season was Ryan Tannehill, whose Titans career seems to have come to an end after he suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 6. Tannehill's numbers were down across the board before the injury, as the former Pro Bowler was completing 62% of his throws and had tossed six interceptions on 158 pass attempts. The Titans could have gone to Levis in Week 1, cut Tannehill and saved $27 million in the process, but they instead paid the veteran about $4.5 million per start in a year where he posted a 33.6 QBR. Tannehill's only appearance since the benching was serving as an emergency holder after punter Ryan Stonehouse suffered a season-ending injury.

Contract for 2024: Tannehill will be a free agent, while Levis will be entering the second year of his rookie deal, which will cost about $1.2 million.

Other internal candidates: The Titans still have 2022 third-rounder Malik Willis, though the Liberty product was benched as a rookie for Joshua Dobbs and has thrown five pass attempts this season. Willis has no more guaranteed money remaining on his deal, and the general manager who drafted Willis (Jon Robinson) has been fired, so his roster spot isn't secure for 2024.

Ties to any likely free agents: Offensive coordinator Tim Kelly spent three years in that role for the Texans, where he coached the combination of Davis Mills and Tyrod Taylor during the 2021 campaign. Mills is entering the final year of his rookie deal, while the itinerant Taylor will be a free agent. Tennessee's quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator is Charles London, who spent time as the running backs coach for the Bears during the Mitch Trubisky era and was the quarterbacks coach for the Falcons in 2022.

Most likely QB they'll pursue: Levis should have first crack at the starting job in 2024, but it would behoove the Titans to add a veteran passer in the scenario that Levis doesn't improve on what we've seen so far in 2023.

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Washington Commanders

Current starter: Sam Howell

What happened in Week 15: Ron Rivera cracked. After spending all season committing to Howell as the starter, the Commanders coach finally benched the second-year quarterback after an interception during Sunday's loss to the Rams, turning things over to overqualified backup Jacoby Brissett. Brissett immediately led two scoring drives, going 8-of-10 for 124 yards and sparking the first breakout game all season from star wideout Terry McLaurin.

Immediately after the game, Rivera said that Howell was pulled from the game to "protect" him, and that Howell would be back in the lineup against the Jets on Sunday. Oh well.

How has it gone in 2023? It has been interesting. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has leaned into the pass, so Howell has thrown a league-high 535 pass attempts. He also leads the NFL with 15 interceptions and 59 sacks, though his sack rate has thankfully come down as the season has gone along. After being sacked on 13.5% of his dropbacks through the first seven games of the season, he has seen his sack rate improve to 6.4% over the ensuing seven starts.

There are unquestionably things to like about Howell. He's tough and mobile. He has a legitimate NFL-caliber arm, and when he gets a chance to step into a throw, Howell can deliver some really impressive passes. If you put together a two-minute highlight reel of the best Howell plays from 2023, he looks like an above-average NFL quarterback.

Of course, there's more to the game than a highlight reel, and Howell's inconsistencies and inexperience show. Despite the big arm, he's only averaging 6.7 yards per attempt. He's also 19-of-60 on deep passes traveling 20 or more yards downfield, and his 64.6 QBR on those throws ranks 26th. Owing to Washington's defense and the heavy pass rate, nobody has more passing yards in garbage time (with a sub-5% win expectancy) than Howell.

Contract for 2024: Howell will be in Year 3 of his rookie deal. Even if he's pushed into the backup role, the 23-year-old will still be a relative bargain, as he'll make $985,000. There's a Gardner Minshew career path in the future for Howell, even if he's not the long-term starter in Washington. Brissett will be a free agent, and after more than half the league needed to turn to a backup at one point or another this season, the former Browns starter should attract more interest than he did in March.

Other internal candidates: The practice squad option here is Jake Fromm, who was last seen starting for the Joe Judge Giants in 2021.

Ties to any likely free agents: Just about everybody around the NFL expects Rivera to be let go by the team's new ownership group at the end of the season, so we won't know who holds ties to the Commanders until we actually see who ends up making decisions.

Most likely QB they'll pursue: It depends on which path the Commanders choose to take. It looks like Josh Harris and the new ownership group are embracing a much-needed rebuild, which would probably require the Commanders to be patient as they build infrastructure around a potential quarterback of the future. With Washington projected to land the fourth pick in the draft at the moment per ESPN's FPI, it could try to draft Daniels or another of the quarterbacks outside the top two. Trading the pick for much-needed draft capital, giving Howell another season and expecting to bottom out in 2025 might also be a longer-term strategy.