We're in the stretch run of the 2023 NFL season and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Week 14 slate. But just in case you need last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues and can be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out, including player props. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine the winners
Will Myles Garrett be unstoppable against the Jaguars?
No defensive player in the NFL lines up closer to the line of scrimmage on pass plays than Garrett. He is 3 inches closer, on average, than the next-closest player (Denver's Jonathon Cooper), according to data from NFL Next Gen Stats. Garrett often seems to get into his three-point stance later than his teammates and has the fastest pass rush get-off in the NFL, with an average of 0.66 seconds to cross the line of scrimmage.
Where Garrett lines up is only part of the equation, but he maximizes that part of his pass rush more than anyone. (He has been flagged four times for a neutral zone infraction or being offside.) And on Sunday against the Jags, Garrett's quick jump will be a threat to either a less-mobile Trevor Lawrence (high ankle sprain) or backup C.J. Beathard, who has taken sacks at a higher-than-average 8% clip in his career.
Can Buffalo's slumping ground game take advantage of the Chiefs?
Kansas City's defensive success is really just pass defense success -- the Chiefs rank 31st in expected points added per designed carry allowed. That should be good news this weekend for the Bills, who rank fifth in EPA per designed carry. The only problem is the unit hasn't been as strong lately and had negative EPA in each of Buffalo's past two contests.
If the Bills can get more out of their running game, that could ease the burden on quarterback Josh Allen against the feisty Chiefs pass defense and limit turnover risk in a critical game for both teams.
Can Malcolm Koonce help the Raiders beat the Vikings?
Thus far, it looks like the Raiders whiffed on Tyree Wilson, their first-round pick in April. But another player has emerged as a strong pass-rusher opposite Maxx Crosby in Koonce. The 2021 third-round pick has a 19% pass rush win rate at edge this season and is coming on lately, at 24% since Week 9 -- which ranks third in that span.
On Sunday, with Crosby facing Brian O'Neill, Koonce's role will be critical to disrupting Minnesota quarterback Joshua Dobbs. Koonce will face Christian Darrisaw, who is roughly average in pass block win rate.
Who will win a strength-on-strength run game matchup in Lions-Bears?
The Lions are running the ball well lately. Since Week 9, they have recorded 0.19 EPA per play there, best in the league. Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have been solid in terms of rush yards over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) for the season, at plus-73 and plus-51, respectively.
But Week 14 will be a test because the Bears have a strong run defense. They rank third in EPA allowed per designed carry this season -- and sixth since Week 9.
Will Jordan Love stay hot against the Giants?
The splits on the Packers quarterback between Weeks 1-8 and Weeks 9-13 (the current stretch in which Green Bay has won four of five games) are stark. Most notably, Love has jumped from a 47 QBR in that first stretch to a 75 in the second.
One notable change: His accuracy numbers have improved. Love's adjusted completion percentage and completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) have jumped from 63% and minus-6% to 72% and plus-1%, respectively. His turnover rate is down dramatically, too, from 2.7% of action plays to 1%. He's getting the benefit of more play-action (29% of dropbacks from Week 9 on, the third-highest rate among QBs), but it's clear Love is playing much better.
Though the Giants' pass defense is fine -- it ranks 13th in EPA per dropback this season -- Love's breakout makes the Packers solid road favorites over New York.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up -- and can start this week
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers (42.3% rostered)
Reed played around 47% of the offensive snaps in Week 13's game against the Chiefs -- despite a chest injury -- and had five targets. Regardless of whether Christian Watson misses the Week 14 game against the Giants because of a hamstring injury, Reed is likely to remain actively involved in the Packers' offense as a receiver and rusher. He scored 11 or more fantasy points in five of six games over Weeks 7-12, including two matchups with 18-plus. And the New York defense gives up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Noah Brown, WR, Houston Texans (40.4% rostered)
Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud has averaged 295 passing yards per game this season, and he is completing 60% of his throws 20 or more yards downfield. Brown is positioned to fill the void left by Tank Dell, who is out for the season because of a fractured left fibula. Dell had 10 or more targets in three of four games before Week 13. As a reminder, Brown broke out just a few weeks ago, scoring 51.5 fantasy points over Weeks 9-10. Even against the Jets' stout secondary, Brown is an intriguing flex option.
Keaton Mitchell, RB, Baltimore Ravens (32% rostered)
Mitchell's role in the Ravens' backfield is expanding, as he had 11 touches and earned 10.9 fantasy points in Week 12 while playing nearly half of Baltimore's offensive snaps. He has scored 10 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games despite sharing touches with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. The only team that averages more rushing attempts per game than the Ravens is the Browns, and as Baltimore comes out of its bye week to face the Rams, Mitchell can be relied on as an RB2.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens (29.5% rostered)
Likely caught four of six targets for 40 receiving yards back in Week 12, playing 73% of the offensive snaps. Although he didn't score a touchdown, it was an encouraging performance as he takes on the Ravens' starting tight end role with Mark Andrews out. Coming off the Ravens' bye, Likely faces a Rams defense that has given up fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. He's a TE1 and is available in most leagues.
Jake Browning, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (24.4% rostered)
While Browning won't replace Joe Burrow's swagger and statistical production in the Bengals' explosive offense with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, he stepped up with an exceptional performance Monday against the Jaguars, finishing with 26 fantasy points. This should give managers optimism moving forward with Bengals on their rosters. Browning is a very good streamer against a Colts defense that gives up the sixth-most points per game.
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday's action
Bills quarterback Josh Allen will run for over 35 yards
Allen has rushed for over 35 yards in two of his past three games. The designed carries and scramble attempts highlight his physical tools and second-reaction ability. I expect Allen to work the edges of the pocket against the Chiefs and use his legs in critical moments to pick up rushing totals. He'll need to make plays outside of structure in this one.
Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson will have an interception
Johnson's on-the-ball production has elevated over the past two games, as he has an interception and a couple of pass breakups. Look for the him to steal one here in Cover 2, where he can lie in the weeds to bait Detroit quarterback Jared Goff into a poor decision. Goff threw three picks when he faced this Bears defense in Week 11.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson will run for a touchdown
Jackson hasn't rushed for a touchdown since Week 7, but he has had at least eight carries in each of his past four games. Give me a designed rush here inside the 10-yard line, with Jackson attacking the perimeter on a counter scheme. The Rams have surrendered 11 rushing TDs this season, tied for 12th most in the NFL, and they have allowed five to opposing quarterbacks, tied for the second most.
Colts receiver Alec Pierce will have over 30 receiving yards
Pierce posted his best numbers of the season in the Week 13 win over the Titans, with three catches for 100 yards and a touchdown. He has now seen six targets in each of his past two games. Playing as a boundary target, Pierce can stretch the field, and he needs only one deep ball to hit this number against Cincinnati. After all, the Bengals have allowed 20 passing plays for more than 30 yards, third most in the NFL.
Chargers running back Austin Ekeler will run for over 55 yards
Ekeler has failed to rush for more than 32 yards in each of his past two games, and he has averaged 2.1 yards per carry (on 24 attempts) during that stretch. But I'm taking the run game matchup for Ekeler this week against a Denver defense allowing 5.2 yards per carry, the most in the league. Ekeler can get back on track here as a volume runner for the Chargers.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
While the Browns aren't saying which quarterback will start against the Jaguars, signs point to Joe Flacco getting the nod for another week. I'm hearing Flacco took a healthy share of first-team reps this week. But coach Kevin Stefanski hasn't made a definitive call between Flacco and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has been cleared from the concussion protocol.
The Jaguars aren't counting out Trevor Lawrence, and they felt like he threw the ball well in practice on Thursday and Friday despite him dealing with a right high ankle sprain. Jacksonville considers Lawrence more limber than most athletes and thus more durable. For example, some in the building thought he would miss around two weeks with a midseason knee sprain, but he didn't miss any time. So Lawrence, who's a game-time decision, has surprised his team by even giving himself a chance to play. And running back Travis Etienne Jr. (questionable, ribs) is trending in the right direction.
With Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (right forearm fracture) off the injury report and ready to return after missing three games, the Cowboys are figuring he'll be a big part of the game plan on Sunday night. Eagles receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith garner much attention, but Goedert is the consistent option over the middle who, in a way, makes Philadelphia's offense go. Dallas knows this and is planning accordingly.
This is a crucial five-game stretch for the Bears, who are quietly 4-4 over their past eight games after a disastrous 0-4 start. The smoke about coach Matt Eberflus' future is apparent in league circles. But the feeling among people with the team is that the Bears have improved, Eberflus' team has continued to play hard for him, he has listened to team leaders when they've expressed concerns and -- perhaps most importantly -- quarterback Justin Fields' play has been steadier since returning from his thumb injury.
And the Bears really want to beat the Lions this week after blowing a 12-point lead in Detroit two weeks ago (the Lions scored 17 unanswered points to win). The locker room is fired up for this game, and a win would do a lot for both the Bears and Eberflus.
Several questionable running backs are hopeful to play, including Jets' Breece Hall (ankle) and the Seahawks' Kenneth Walker III (oblique) and Zach Charbonnet (knee). Walker would provide a lift for Seattle after a three-week absence.