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senior NFL national reporter- Jeremy Fowler is a senior national NFL writer for ESPN, covering the entire league including breaking news. Jeremy also contributes to SportsCenter both as a studio analyst and a sideline reporter covering for NFL games. He is an Orlando, Florida native who joined ESPN in 2014 after covering college football for CBSSports.com.
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senior NFL national reporter- Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.
Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and league insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are breaking down the biggest questions, latest news and notable buzz of the week. Plus, they picked out which teams are on upset watch and which players should -- or shouldn't -- be in your fantasy football lineups.
As we enter the final five weeks of the regular season, which division races will come down to the wire? Who will be on the Defensive Player of the Year ballot? And which teams could surprisingly be in the quarterback market come March and April? It's all here, as Dan and Jeremy answer big questions and empty their notebooks with everything they've heard heading into Week 14.
Jump to a topic:
Division races | DPOY | QB market
Upset picks | Fantasy tips | Latest buzz
Which division race will be closest by season's end?
Graziano: After the Jaguars lost to the Bengals on Monday night, the AFC South could be the surprise answer here. The Jaguars are in first place at 8-4, but they might have to play without quarterback Trevor Lawrence (ankle) this week, and their next two games come against AFC playoff contenders with tough defenses in the Browns and Ravens. Meanwhile, the Texans and the Colts are both 7-5 -- just one game behind the Jags -- and playing well. If the Jaguars slip up over the next couple of weeks due to injuries to Lawrence, receiver Christian Kirk and other key players, this could be a nail-biter.
Fowler: Maybe I'm just eager to see the Cowboys and Eagles face off Sunday, but the NFC East could come down to the final weekend between these two contenders. Despite Philly's 10-2 record, Dallas (9-3) has looked like the better team in recent weeks. The Cowboys have a tougher December schedule, though.
While other divisions might be deeper with more overall parity, the NFC East features the best head-to-head matchup. And the first game between these two was a classic. Whether Philadelphia, which is trying to be the first NFC East team to win back-to-back divisional titles since the Eagles did it from 2001 to '04, can regain its championship form over the final five weeks is a storyline to monitor.
Graziano: Yeah, a Dallas win on Sunday would surely make this a fun one to watch. The NFC South might not be fun to watch, but it's likely to be close down the stretch, with the Falcons, Saints and Buccaneers all trying to post the division's first winning record since 2021. I've kind of liked the Saints all along in this, but the New Orleans offense can't seem to get into a groove, and now quarterback Derek Carr is dealing with injuries again. Who do you like in the South?
Fowler: Is this one of those "wrong answers only" deals, because I'm not sure there's a right one for the weakest division in football. I'll take the Falcons. They have a one-game lead and four of their last five games are against teams with losing records. But the Bucs could make a move here. At full health, they could knock off all three of their remaining divisional opponents in head-to-head matchups.
Who are your top three picks for Defensive Player of the Year?
Fowler: Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett, Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt and Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland. This feels like a golden age for pass-rushers. Garrett, Watt and Dallas' Micah Parsons are all tracking for 15-plus sacks on the season, and each player terrifies opponents. Watt and Garrett have carried their respective teams despite lack of support from their offenses, and both will make massive plays late in games. But it feels like Garrett's year to come into his own as the premier pass-rusher.
Parsons should probably be in here, but his teammate -- Bland -- has shown a rare knack for crashing passing lanes and finding the end zone once the ball is in his hands. He has eight picks, including five pick-sixes.
Graziano: I'll go with Garrett, Watt and Parsons. Bland's interceptions are undeniable and likely to generate a lot of votes. But he got absolutely torched by the Seahawks last Thursday night, and I don't think he has the same play-to-play impact of these edge rushers. Garrett is having an absolutely dominant season for the Browns, who have had the league's best defense for most of the season. Parsons could even vault to the top of the list if he helps the Cowboys to a division title with a strong December/January finish. And Watt, like his brother before him, is always going to be in this mix.
Fowler: Time for a few sneaky candidates. Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton has been all over the field with two interceptions, three sacks and eight tackles for loss. And Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby is as relentless as any defender in the NFL.
Graziano: My honorable mentions go to Minnesota's Danielle Hunter and Jacksonville's Josh Allen. They could both be in line for big paydays, and the talented edge rushers each already have 13.5 sacks this season.
Which team could be a surprise participant in the QB market this offseason?
Graziano: Well, what would constitute a surprise? Would the Giants be a surprise? The Falcons? I think either of those teams could go looking for better solutions than what they have right now, but maybe they are too obvious.
I could say the Rams or Saints, too, but Matthew Stafford and Carr have fully guaranteed salaries of $31 million and $30 million, respectively, in 2024. The Jets will likely have Aaron Rodgers back for another season, so anything they do at QB would be focused on 2025 and beyond. And Arizona will probably hang on to Kyler Murray at this point. I don't know. Maybe Seattle?
Fowler: Yeah, Seattle feels like a team to watch, depending on how the rest of the season shakes out. Geno Smith's guaranteed money is up after 2023. But that doesn't mean the Seahawks want to move on. Smith is a capable starter coming off an impressive 334-yard game against Dallas, and his $31.2 million cap hit next season is respectable for NFL starters.
But if Seattle decides to go young at QB, that would place Smith's future into question. The Seahawks have spent the past two years building the strength of the overall roster for the post-Russell Wilson era. Soon enough, that could include drafting a quarterback high in Round 1.
Graziano: Yeah, the Seahawks did look around at the QBs in the 2023 draft when they had the No. 5 pick from the Wilson trade with the Broncos. On that note, how about the Broncos here? Wilson has been largely fine (outside of Sunday's three second-half interceptions), but his numbers don't come close to justifying his salary. Is Denver going to want to keep paying top dollar for 199 passing yards per game?
Wilson has $39 million in guaranteed money next year, but if he's on the roster by the third week of March, his $37 million 2025 salary also becomes fully guaranteed. Making Wilson a post-June 1 cut would cost the Broncos $35.4 million against their 2024 cap. It's a heavy hit but better than committing $37 million in 2025 to a guy who's sitting at 20th in QBR with five games left in the 2023 season.
Fowler: The Raiders will likely have a new regime in place, which tends to result in quarterback changes. Fourth-round rookie Aidan O'Connell has shown some promise, but whether or not they stick with O'Connell, the Raiders must do something with Jimmy Garoppolo's contractual future. As part of a three-year, $72.5 million deal signed in March, Garoppolo is due $24.5 million in 2024 cash, including a guaranteed roster bonus of $11.25 million. Trading him would be ideal, but that market will not be robust. The Raiders can save $13 million on the cap with a post-June 1 release.
If Bill Belichick remains in New England in 2024 -- which seems like a big if -- Garoppolo would be a natural selection as a bridge free agent starter alongside a draft pick for a revamped QB room.
What's your top upset pick for Week 14?
Fowler: Rams (+7) over Ravens. Los Angeles is hitting a hot streak offensively. In their past three games with Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua all healthy and in the lineup together, the Rams averaged 33 points and 412.7 yards per game on the way to a 3-0 record. The Ravens' defense will be their toughest challenge yet, but every other AFC North team has had a highly unpredictable season, so maybe it's Baltimore's turn for a surprise.
Graziano: Bills (+2.5) over Chiefs. The teams in front of Buffalo in the AFC playoff race are all skidding for one reason or another, and it's time for the 6-6 Bills to hit the gas. They are coming off a bye week and facing a Chiefs team that just can't seem to get things together on offense. They went into Kansas City in the regular season last season and came away with a win, so they know they can do it. I think the Chiefs are in a zone right now where they're looking for answers, and now they have to face a Buffalo team that, frankly, given the standings, needs this game a lot more than they do.
What's your fantasy football call of the week?
Graziano: I know he was a disappointment against the Broncos, but I'd try Texans running back Devin Singletary again this week against a Jets team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs over the past four weeks. Teams have trouble throwing against the Jets' secondary, so they seem more inclined to lean on the run. Singletary has outperformed Dameon Pierce this season, and while the Texans might be inclined to use Pierce if they get close to the goal line because of his specific skill set, Singletary is the back they're more likely to lean on for the main rushing workload.
Fowler: Resist the urge to play Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott on Thursday night despite Rhamondre Stevenson's ankle injury. That's not a knock on Elliott, who has been solid this season. It's more about the fact that the Patriots' offense can't score -- and it doesn't feel like that's changing any time soon. New England has averaged 4.3 offensive points per game since Week 10, last in the NFL. And though Pittsburgh's run defense is leaky (1,452 rushing yards allowed), the Steelers will be ornery after an ugly loss to Arizona and looking to get back on track.
What else are you hearing this week?
Fowler's notebook:
• The sense out of Pittsburgh is quarterback Kenny Pickett could end up missing four weeks with that right ankle injury. I've talked to people who are at least bracing for that possibility. So Mitch Trubisky could have a four-game run to make something happen. If the four-week outlook holds, then Pickett would be back for the season finale at Baltimore on Jan. 7. With the Steelers' rocky offensive journey this season, how the team finishes will be anyone's guess. Coach Mike Tomlin's culture typically prevails in situations like this, but the Steelers will be tested.
• The Steelers are loosely planning to face quarterback Bailey Zappe on Thursday night vs. the Patriots. But they are also looking into Mac Jones and Malik Cunningham, just in case. The Patriots didn't get Cunningham involved last week but have been working on potential packages for him. He has thrown the ball relatively well in practices. What's clear is what's not clear in New England: They need a real solution at the position.
• Carr -- who is under concussion protocol and being evaluated for a rib injury -- is trying to get back in time for the Carolina game on Sunday but is looking like a long shot, at least early in the week, per a source. Accumulation of injury is becoming an issue. Carr has left three different games due to injury this season, including a sprained AC joint Week 3 and concussion protocol in Week 10. Backup Jameis Winston isn't certain whether he's starting vs. the Panthers but is prepared to play.
• I've talked to people around the league who believe the Panthers will go with a young offensive coach for their next head coach. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson (37) and Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson (36) fit that mold, as does Houston coordinator Bobby Slowik (36). Miami coordinator Frank Smith (42) isn't as young but is considered an ascending coach. There will be others, but there would be a level of shock in some league circles if owner David Tepper did not go offense. I don't get the sense that Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh would be in play here.
Graziano's notebook:
• The Jets' quarterback situation remains a murky mess, with no guarantee at this point who will start this week or whether that person will start the rest of the season. The sense I get from my sources is that the team is leaning toward going back to Zach Wilson. But the relationship between Wilson and the team obviously isn't fantastic given his most recent benching, and as the third-stringer the past couple of weeks, Wilson hasn't been able to get many practice reps. The Jets have Trevor Siemian, who relieved Tim Boyle on Sunday, as an option and just brought in Brett Rypien, who played in Denver under Nathaniel Hackett last year and knows the offense. So it's possible one of them could get the start this week. But at this point, it feels like Wilson is the most likely option for Week 14. Stay tuned on all of that.
• Some in the coaching community are wondering whether, if the Jets continue to lose and there continues to be chatter about behind-the-scenes dysfunction, that might be a sneaky spot to watch for a potential coaching change at the end of this season. There has been a feeling around the league that the fact that Rodgers got hurt in Week 1 would kind of give everyone a mulligan. And there's also an outside perception that Rodgers' influence in the building is so strong that the coaches he likes (Robert Saleh, Hackett) would be protected as long as he's planning to come back next season. But don't be surprised to hear some rumblings around those situations if the Jets continue to free-fall and end the season with four or five wins.
Multiple sources have pointed out to me in recent days that Jets owner Woody Johnson was still away serving as ambassador to the United Kingdom when his brother Christopher oversaw the hiring of Saleh, and that Woody could have other ideas if things turn very ugly. The offense has been an abject disaster without Rodgers. Would he go to the mat to save the job of his preferred offensive coordinator in Hackett, if ownership insisted on coaching changes? It's a question at least worth keeping in mind.
• The Eagles should be getting healthier in advance of this week's rematch against the Cowboys. Tight end Dallas Goedert, who has missed the past three games after fracturing his forearm, is aiming to return this week. It remains to be seen how much Goedert would be able to play, but the Eagles have believed all along that he could be back in time for this game. That's why they didn't put him on injured reserve, which would have required him to miss at least four games.
• The first dispute between the league and new NFLPA executive director Lloyd Howell could be over the sharp increase in fines being handed out to players for on-field violations this year, including lowering the helmet to initiate contact. One source said there have been twice as many such fines handed out this season as there had been at this same time last year, and players are looking for clarification as to why and what they're doing wrong. The league has made a decision to fine players for violations after the fact, even if the violation didn't result in a penalty at the time. If nothing else, the NFLPA could look into revisiting the fine schedule as established in the collective bargaining agreement so that the numbers are more reflective of the league's increased policing of on-field violations.