LANDOVER, MD -- After dismantling the Commanders on Sunday to the tune of 157 yards and two long touchdown catches, Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill was asked if he thinks he's having the best season of his career. A lot of athletes, when asked a question like that, might say that's for the media to decide, or that we have to wait to see how the season ends before thinking about such things. But Hill, who is on pace for a record 2,098 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns, said yes.
The reason, Hill explained, was that he believes he had a productive offseason studying the Dolphins' offense and the mistakes he made while playing in it for the first time last season. He said he was able to come back this year more confident after reviewing the way he played in 2022 and that he understands the offense better this time around. And if that sounds scary, it's for good reason. The way Hill and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa operate together is spectacular.
Hill ran past his man and Tagovailoa hit him deep for a 78-yard touchdown to open the scoring Sunday. Then in the second quarter, Tua again went deep to Hill, who was one-on-one with his man downfield, turned inside, realized Tagovailoa had thrown the ball to the other side, managed to turn around in stride and caught the ball for a 60-yard touchdown. It was the kind of thing you just shouldn't be able to do -- not at that speed, not against fellow professional football players. But Hill made it look easy.
"I think Tua can be more aggressive in certain windows because he knows what Tyreek is capable of doing," Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said. "And I think Tyreek can be more aggressive because he knows what Tua is capable of."
The duo has the Dolphins sitting at 9-3 and in first place in the AFC as December dawns. There can be little doubt that the addition of Hill, via trade from Kansas City in the 2022 offseason, unlocked spectacular new capabilities for this Dolphins offense. And with Miami poised to finish off a special season here over the next month or so, it's worth opening the Week 13 overreactions column -- in which we judge some of the biggest potential takeaways off the slate of games -- with Hill.
Jump to:
Hill winning MVP?
Steelers missing the playoffs?
Cowboys to the Super Bowl?
NFC South looking for coaches?
Niners never losing again?
Tyreek Hill should win the MVP award
No receiver has ever won it, which is why it's a bold statement. Most Valuable Player is almost exclusively a quarterback award, with signal-callers winning 15 of the past 16. Offensive Player of the Year feels like the award Hill is more likely to win, and heading into Week 13, it was probably either Hill or 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey for that honor.
But now that Hill is less than 500 yards away from Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving yardage record (sitting at 1,481) with five games to go, there's a real question to be asked about whether OPOY is award enough for a player who's making this level of difference to his team.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Look, I'm well aware that this award is more likely to go to Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott or Brock Purdy or Patrick Mahomes or even Tagovailoa before voters make history by awarding it to a wide receiver for the first time. But while you can make strong cases for any of those quarterbacks, none has really distanced himself from the field so far. And it's impossible to watch the Dolphins operate their breathtaking offense without realizing Hill is the unicorn who makes it all possible -- via the spacing, the timing and the confidence the quarterback has in his receiver's impact on the defense.
If Hill gets to the end of the season with the record numbers, and if the quarterback pack remains as jumbled as it is so far, I really don't see anything wrong with giving Hill the MVP award. The "V" stands for "valuable," and what's become of the Dolphins since Hill joined them illustrates his value as clearly as it possibly could.
The Steelers are going to miss the playoffs
Nine penalties, an injury to starting quarterback Kenny Pickett, a James Conner revenge game and a pair of weather delays added up to a heinous 24-10 loss to Arizona in Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Steelers are 7-5 and still in playoff position. But while Sunday was the second straight game in which they gained more yards than their opponent, you likely remember that they didn't do that in any of this season's first 10 games.
The Steelers have faced a bevy of backup and/or substandard quarterbacks and have built their record on their ability to ugly-up the games and have one of their stellar defensive playmakers do something to swing it late. Sunday was a reminder that you can't always live like that.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Steelers get the Patriots in Week 14, so as long as they can find a way to score 10 points, they should be 8-6. But the surging Colts -- who have won four in a row and currently sit right behind the Steelers in those AFC playoff standings -- are on deck after that. Then the Steelers play the Bengals, an always-tough rivalry game even with Bengals QB Joe Burrow out for the season. And they finish the season with road games in Seattle and Baltimore.
It's not hard to imagine the Steelers going 2-3 or worse the rest of the way. That would result in yet another non-losing season for coach Mike Tomlin, but at 9-8, it surely wouldn't guarantee them a playoff spot. This is a Steelers team that has overachieved to get to where it is today. But Sunday's home loss to one of the worst teams in the league is a reminder that nothing comes easy for the Steelers, who are generally outmanned. You can't assume they'll beat anybody.
The Cowboys can get to the Super Bowl without winning the division
Dallas opened Week 13 with a hard-fought victory over the Seahawks, improving to 9-3 and staying within shouting distance of first-place Philadelphia in the NFC East. The Cowboys play the Eagles in Week 14 at home, where they're 6-0 this season. Their problem is that the Eagles -- prior to Sunday -- spent the time since the first Eagles-Cowboys game beating the tough teams on their schedule. So after the Eagles got thumped by the Niners on Sunday, Philadelphia still holds a one-game lead on the Cowboys ahead of the big head-to-head rematch in Dallas.
The Cowboys seem bound for the playoffs regardless of whether they end up a division champ or a wild-card team, and with Prescott playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL over the past month and a half, they have reason to feel they can go on the road in the playoffs and win if need be.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
A division-champion Cowboys team would be a considerably better bet to reach the Super Bowl than a wild-card Cowboys team. Not only are they 6-0 in Arlington, they also average 41 points per game in home games as opposed to 23.7 on the road. Coincidence? Maybe. Opponent-driven? Perhaps. But think about the adjustments the Cowboys have made to their offense as the season has gone along. One of the key tweaks is the incorporation of more pre-snap motion, which means more pre-snap communication -- which is a lot easier to manage when you're at home than it is when you're on the road in front of a hostile, noisy crowd determined to disrupt your offense.
Yes, they played the Eagles tough in Philadelphia, but they didn't beat them. And if you're a Cowboys fan, are you really going to feel good about their chances if they have to go to San Francisco again in January? Week 14 is massive for Dallas. The Cowboys absolutely need to find a way to catch the Eagles and secure a home game or two in the playoffs if they want to make the Super Bowl for the first time in nearly three decades.
Every team in the NFC South will be looking for a new coach this offseason
Well, the Falcons won on Sunday, beating the Jets in a 13-8 barnburner to improve to 6-6 and maintain their hold on first place in the NFL's worst division. But they have allowed more points than they've scored this season. The Saints lost their third game in a row to drop to 5-7, while the Buccaneers outlasted the Panthers in a sloppy, rain-soaked mess of a game to improve to 5-7.
Carolina, now 1-11 and without its first-round pick, already fired coach Frank Reich last week. But in a division where no one has a winning record through 13 weeks, you have to wonder who, if anyone, should feel good about job security once this season is over.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
I feel confident that at least one of the other teams in the division will join Carolina in searching for a new coach at the end of this season. But all three? That feels like a bridge too far. One of these guys is going to win the division and host a playoff game after all. And while it wouldn't be unprecedented for a team to change coaches after such a season, it doesn't happen often.
Arthur Smith is 20-26 in two-plus seasons as Atlanta's coach and has not yet been to the playoffs. Dennis Allen is 12-17 in one-plus seasons as New Orleans' coach. Todd Bowles is 13-16 as Buccaneers coach, including a division title last season with a record of 8-9. Any and all of them could be vulnerable. But the number of potential head-coach openings we're estimating at this point exceeds the number of obviously qualified candidates to fill them. I think it's a stretch to imagine a whole division turning things over at those spots.
The 49ers won't lose another game all season
Call it a revenge game. Call it a statement game. Call it whatever you want. The 49ers went into Philadelphia on Sunday and took out whatever leftover frustrations they had about last season's NFC Championship Game loss. San Francisco beat the defending NFC champs 42-19 to win its fourth game in a row and improve to 9-3, making the Niners now one of three teams one game behind 10-2 Philadelphia in the race for the top seed in the NFC playoff field.
The 49ers are averaging 33.4 points scored and 13 points allowed in their nine wins. They had that three-game losing streak back in October when they scored exactly 17 every week and didn't have receiver Deebo Samuel or offensive tackle Trent Williams. But since those two returned for the Week 10 game in Jacksonville, the Niners have looked just about unstoppable.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Niners are going to have to get back up emotionally for a division game against an extra-rested Seattle team next week, and they still have a Christmas Day home game against the Ravens, who have blasted NFC playoff contenders Detroit and Seattle by the combined score of 75-9 in two games this season. And then of course there are the NFC playoffs, where in spite of Sunday's result the Eagles and others aren't going to roll over for them.
But if the 49ers can navigate those two remaining potential regular-season trouble spots -- Seahawks and Ravens -- and win the other three winnable games on their schedule, there's a good chance they go into the playoffs with the top seed in the conference, meaning they'd need to win only two home games to get to the Super Bowl. Who would they see once there? Who knows? Maybe the Chiefs, maybe the Ravens again, maybe the Dolphins in a sweet teacher/pupil Kyle Shanahan/Mike McDaniel matchup.
Over the past couple of years -- with one or two exceptions -- matchups between top teams in the AFC and NFC have gone the way of the AFC teams, including in the Super Bowl. But if the 49ers win out and reach Super Bowl Sunday in Las Vegas on an 11-game winning streak, they're not going to be intimidated by anyone.