We're in the post-Thanksgiving stretch run of the 2023 NFL season and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Week 12 slate. But just in case you need last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the eleventh hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out, including some player props. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine the winners
Can the Panthers better protect Bryce Young against the Titans?
Young's rookie campaign is going about as poorly as possible. He has a 29.9 QBR, last among qualifying quarterbacks, and he has thrown nine touchdown passes and eight interceptions.
One factor out of his control, though, is his pass protection, which has gone from mediocre over the first seven weeks to awful in the past few. The Panthers rank last in pass block win rate since Week 8, and in that span, left tackle Ikem Ekwonu (72%) and center Bradley Bozeman (86%) rank last in the metric at their respective positions. That's something to watch against Tennessee, who is seventh in pass rush win rate (49%).
What are the potential draft consequences for Patriots-Giants?
Let's focus on the chances that these teams land a top-two pick, since that means they would be in position to draft either USC's Caleb Williams or North Carolina's Drake Maye, the consensus top quarterbacks in the upcoming draft. Here's what you need to know for Sunday's matchup:
If the Patriots lose, they will have a 38% chance at a top-two pick, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). If they win, it drops to 9%.
If the Giants lose, they will have a 47% chance to earn a top-two pick. But a win means an 11% chance.
In other words, this is a deeply significant game for the long-term directions of both franchises.
Can the Chiefs' passing offense get back on track against Las Vegas?
I didn't really expect to type these words this season. When I saw the following stat, I had to quadruple check it to make sure it was right: Since Week 8, the Chiefs are averaging negative-0.14 expected points added per dropback, which ranks 26th in that span. Yes, 26th in passing offense! The Chiefs!
Do I believe they'll get back on track? Well, they have Patrick Mahomes, so of course. And Sunday against the Raiders should be a get-right game for Kansas City. But the root cause -- the lack of receiving help beyond tight end Travis Kelce -- is a real concern for this team's Super Bowl aspirations.
Are the Buccaneers and Colts playoff contenders?
Somewhat bizarre for two teams FPI considers to be below average -- yes, they are. When this interconference matchup kicks off on Sunday, there will be plenty of playoff leverage on the line.
At 5-5, the Colts are a beneficiary of other AFC fringe contenders suffering injuries and/or bad losses, while at the same time getting sneaky-good play out of quarterback Gardner Minshew. His 62 QBR ranks 11th this season. Plus, they have the easiest remaining strength of schedule entering Week 12. The Bucs, meanwhile, have the advantage of playing in the weakest division in football. Winning the NFC South comprises the majority of Tampa Bay's playoff chances.
If the Colts win Sunday, they will have a 40% chance to reach the playoffs, per FPI. And the Bucs, meanwhile, would have a 43% shot with a win.
Is Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. an X factor against the Bengals?
The rookie didn't start a game until Week 7, but his coverage numbers are looking strong. Porter has the fewest yards allowed per coverage snap among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps (0.7), edging Riq Woolen and Jaylon Johnson. He also has allowed negative-13 EPA when targeted.
That's a great sign for a Pittsburgh team that probably needs its defense to ball out in order to win -- Sunday in Cincinnati and going forward.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up -- and can start this week
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (34.9% rostered)
Derrick Henry and Spears are splitting snaps, and Spears is very capable as a runner between the tackles and as a receiver out of the backfield. This season, he has averaged 7.6 touches and 1.0 fantasy point per touch. For the Titans, who are desperate to boost their offense, Spears' involvement is a good first step. Plus, the Panthers give up the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (26.8% rostered)
Otton caught four of five targets for 49 receiving yards against a stout 49ers defense last week. He also led the Buccaneers in routes run and played 95% of the offensive snaps, great signs for fantasy upside. Otton has a very favorable matchup Sunday against the Colts' defense, which gives up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Demario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots (24.5% rostered)
Douglas has a 21.5% target share since Week 7 and has scored 10 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games. In Week 12 -- regardless of whether Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe is under center -- Douglas will continue to be an important part of the Patriots' passing attack. And against a Giants defense that allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, he has a solid matchup.
Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints (23.7% rostered)
The Saints placed Michael Thomas on injured reserve (knee) this week. Shaheed's chance to shine could finally be here. Even though he has averaged only 5.0 targets per game this season, he has scored double-digit fantasy points in four games, including 18 or more in three. When targeting Shaheed, quarterback Derek Carr has a QBR of 88.8 -- top 20 among quarterback-wide receiver combinations with at least 40 attempts. We may see him rely more on Shaheed this week against the Falcons.
Gardner Minshew, QB, Indianapolis Colts (6.6% rostered)
The chemistry between Minshew and receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is undeniable. With the Buccaneers giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, this duo should make some noise on Sunday. Tampa Bay has recently given up big performances to C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy, and Minshew should capitalize -- especially with receiver Josh Downs set to return.
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday's action
Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter will have a sack
Carter has 4 sacks, 17 pressures and a pass rush win rate of 20% this season. And I see matchup advantages for him on Sunday against the interior of the Bills' offensive front. Look for Carter to get home to quarterback Josh Allen, using his ability to shed blockers and close in a hurry.
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud will throw for over 300 yards
Stroud has thrown for 300 or more yards in five of his 10 starts this season, and he has topped that number in three straight games. He also leads the league with 49 completions of 20 yards or more and now gets a Jaguars defense on Sunday that is allowing 254.4 passing yards per game, the fourth most in the NFL. I'll be looking for him to target the second and third levels from the pocket and make plays outside of structure.
Ravens receiver Zay Flowers will have five or more receptions
With tight end Mark Andrews down because of a left ankle injury, I expect quarterback Lamar Jackson to work the ball more on the perimeter, which sets up the versatile Flowers in a positive matchup against the Chargers' defense. Flowers has caught at least five passes in two of his past four games, and he can be deployed both inside and outside the numbers. The Chargers are allowing a league-worst 291.6 passing yards per game this season. The opportunity is here for Flowers as a multilevel target.
Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco will rush for a touchdown
Pacheco hasn't run for a score since Week 5, but he has seen a bump in volume, and I'm going with the good matchup against the Raiders. Las Vegas has allowed 10 rushing TDs this season, tied for the 10th-most in the NFL. Pacheco has totaled at least 13 carries in four of his past five games, including 35 over his past two. And the run game could be an answer for Andy Reid's offense in the second half to generate points.
Broncos safety Justin Simmons will have an interception
Simmons has an interception in two of his past three games, and he just had three pass breakups in the Sunday night win over the Vikings. The veteran safety is around the ball for a reason. Let's see if Simmons can bait Cleveland quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson -- who has thrown four interceptions in his two starts this season -- on Sunday. He can drive top-down on the ball and steal one.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
I talked to a source who expects Ravens wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (questionable, shoulder) to try to play Sunday against the Chargers. "I think he'll go," the source said. There's less confidence with cornerback Marlon Humphrey (questionable, calf). His status is still up in the air. Wide receiver Zay Flowers (questionable, hip) told reporters he's playing.
The Week 13 bye couldn't come sooner for Saquon Barkley, who has dealt with lingering effects from that Week 2 ankle sprain. He has had to manage pain with extra therapy for a while now. The fact he's missed just three games this season is impressive. "He's a warrior," said a team source, who stressed the injury is nothing structural, just a "bad sprain" that needs rest to heal. Barkley clearly hasn't mailed it in during the Giants' three-win campaign.
It wouldn't shock if Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes went right back to Marquez Valdes-Scantling this weekend despite his bad deep-ball drop Monday night. MVS feels horrible about it, but that was his first drop of the season, and the Chiefs would like to get him going after a slow start. In the Chiefs' equal opportunity receiver room, anybody can be featured on any week. No one has truly emerged, though Rashee Rice has made his case.
In Washington, coach Ron Rivera is expected to get the rest of the season before any changes might happen. "I think he's earned the right," a team source said. He hasn't called defensive plays since 2019 in Carolina. Rivera was confident in quarterback Sam Howell and the growth of the offense, but he thought he was pairing a young quarterback with a top-10 defense, because that's what Washington was last season. The falloff was disappointing.
In New England, people I've talked to wouldn't be surprised if quarterback Mac Jones gets the nod Sunday, though the whole situation still has an "anything is possible" feel. Bailey Zappe could certainly play regardless. That's been the feeling since last week. But I'm not so sure Zappe surpassed Jones in a major way this week. The Patriots have Will Grier as a wild card to play, as well.