NFL Week 12 latest buzz, fantasy tips and upset predictions

• Commanders coach Ron Rivera did not help his already shaky job status with the six-turnover loss to the Giants on Sunday. Even before that game, some people in the building had openly wondered whether change could come during the Week 14 bye. Washington plays at Dallas on Thanksgiving and hosts Miami on Dec. 3. It will be heavy underdogs in both. While I've talked to people who think team owner Josh Harris might not want to make an in-season change, falling to 4-9 would cement a fourth consecutive losing season without a winning record for Rivera. That's tough for any coach to overcome.

• As Dan mentioned earlier, Lamar Jackson has noticeably improved his leadership for the Ravens. "He's evolving," a team source said. "There's a different air about him, with better communication." The Ravens have given Jackson what he needs: A five-year, $260 million extension after a rocky year of negotiations and a new playcaller (Todd Monken) to embolden the quarterback. Those factors help.

People with the Ravens, however, have noticed Jackson's personality coming out more with the new offense. He has been more aggressive checking into plays he likes, which helps coaches discover more about him and his preferences. The new offense is up nearly 33 yards per game from last season, which Baltimore hopes gives it a new edge come playoff time. One area Jackson must address before then: cleaner fourth-quarter play. Since the 2021 season, he leads all quarterbacks in fourth quarter or overtime turnovers (12).

• Two beneficiaries of the Steelers' firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada: Running back Jaylen Warren and wide receiver George Pickens. You don't have to be a football savant to know Warren should average more than eight carries per game and Pickens should get more than seven targets per game. Steelers interim playcaller Mike Sullivan knows how to target his top options. In 2016, as the Giants' offensive coordinator, star Odell Beckham Jr. logged a career-high 169 targets.

• I was told that Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (knee) playing Friday vs. the Jets would be at least a mild surprise. Achane reaggravated the knee injury that put him on injured reserve at midseason, and though there's no major damage, the Dolphins have been cautious with him.

Graziano's notebook:

• As of Tuesday morning, the Patriots still weren't sure who would start at quarterback this week against the Giants. The plan, such as it is, was to see how practice goes and make a decision. They had a walk-through Monday in which reps were split evenly between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe, but Jones was always first. They practiced Tuesday, will practice Wednesday, then take Thursday off for Thanksgiving and practice again Friday.

As of Tuesday, it felt like the most likely outcome was that Jones would get another start but that Zappe would be ready to come in if Jones' issues (such as failing to keep his eyes downfield when he spots the rush) show up early. The thought is that, once Jones' problems start to show up in a game, he hasn't shown the ability to correct them during the game. So if that happens, a switch could be made much sooner than it has been in the past.

Of course, it's also possible Jones looks lousy in practice this week and Zappe gets the start. Either way, the Patriots know they're in a tough spot at quarterback and likely will lean toward whichever decision they think makes them less likely to commit game-altering turnovers.

• When the Colts signed linebacker Shaq Leonard to a five-year, $98.25 million contract extension in 2021, they considered him a cornerstone of their future as one of the league's true "closers" on defense. He missed 14 games due to injuries last season, and his playing time in 2023 had been reduced for injury reasons as well as the improved play of fellow linebacker E.J. Speed. The Colts waived Leonard on Tuesday. They still have to pay him the remainder of his guaranteed $15.7 million salary for this year (so, $6.106 million) unless another team claims him on waivers.

At that number, and with about $55.4 million owed to him over the next three seasons (albeit not guaranteed), it's practically impossible to imagine another team taking on that contract. If he clears waivers, certainly some team is likely to take a chance on him. He's only 28 years old and was among the league's best linebackers a couple of years ago. Even if he hasn't been the same since the injuries set in, he could still help a team.

• The Leonard move is a reminder of something to watch for the post-trade deadline. Teams will waive veterans with big contracts who they've decided aren't part of their future in the hopes that another team might take the contract off their hands. This happens especially on teams that are out of the playoff race. They rarely get lucky enough that a team does claim the big contract they're unloading, but it's worth a shot if it has younger players it has been trying to get into the lineup.

• I would expect the Bengals' offense (obviously) to be less productive without Joe Burrow at quarterback. Burrow's ability to move in the pocket and extend plays -- and make the throw at the end -- is uncommon, and the inexperienced Jake Browning will not be the same. Still, the Cincinnati coaching staff believes Browning, who has been with the team since 2021, can operate all facets of the offense and that it won't have to alter its game planning or playcalling with Browning in the game.

If Ja'Marr Chase (or Tee Higgins, when he comes back from his injury) are on your fantasy teams, I might advise holding on and seeing whether the drop off in production isn't as serious as you fear. If you have Joe Mixon, I'd expect a little more of a workload. But at least at the start, my understanding is the Bengals plan to try to run their offense as usual.