We're heading toward the stretch run of the 2023 NFL season, and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Week 11 slate. But just in case you need last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the eleventh hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out, including some player props. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine the winners
Can the Chiefs stop the Eagles' ground attack?
The Chiefs have received plenty of deserving praise for their defense this season, but it's important to note that it has really been the pass defense that has excelled. Against the run, the numbers are actually pretty rough. The Chiefs rank 30th in opponent expected points added (EPA) per designed carry and 31st in run stop win rate.
That looks like a matchup problem to me! The Eagles rank seventh in EPA per designed carry and first in run block win rate. Philadelphia's best move might be to go run-heavy on Monday night with Jalen Hurts and D'Andre Swift.
Can the Commanders' defensive tackles step up against the Giants?
The Commanders' pass rush is a shell of what we thought it would be heading into the season. Yes, part of that is Montez Sweat and Chase Young getting dealt at the trade deadline. But the more concerning aspect going forward is that Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne have not produced.
Last season, the duo ranked ninth and 12th in pass rush win rate, respectively. This year, they're 26th and 42nd. The Giants don't have a great interior offensive line, so this week is an opportunity for the pair. If they were playing like they did last season, we'd be looking at Allen and Payne as potential game-wreckers for Tommy DeVito and the Giants.
Is Rico Dowdle in line for more work against Carolina?
For years, fans and fantasy managers alike prayed the Cowboys would give Tony Pollard more touches over Ezekiel Elliott, as Pollard had been the more efficient running back. Now, with Pollard as the top back, his rushing numbers have fallen off. He has minus-37 rush yards over expectation this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats (minus-0.3 per carry).
Meanwhile, Dowdle is a bit better at plus-9 RYOE (or 0.2 per carry). He is averaging 4.5 yards per carry to Pollard's 3.9. Of course, part of this could be that as workload increases, efficiency decreases, so there's no guarantee Dowdle would maintain his pace with more work. But it remains an interesting running back room to watch against the Panthers and going forward.
Can Riq Woolen make an impact against the Rams?
Woolen's rookie season was no fluke. After recording six interceptions and allowing an impressive 0.8 yards per coverage snap in 2022, he has followed that up with another 0.8 yards per coverage season thus far, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That's the best by an outside corner with at least 200 coverage snaps this year, narrowly beating out last season's Defensive Rookie of the Year, Sauce Gardner (0.9).
As such, Woolen is a big part of why Seattle's defense has been solid -- and why it could be a challenge for Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and the Rams' passing game.
Is Sam Howell's sack avoidance improvement a sign of what's to come?
The honest answer is I don't know because I'm surprised we're here in the first place. Howell ranks 12th in sack rate among QBs in their first two seasons of their career (min. 200 dropbacks) since 2001 at 10%. None of the other 11, if they reached 200 dropbacks in Years 3-plus, managed to have a lower-than-average sack rate for the rest of their career.
The stability of QB sack rates is why I've been so critical of Howell and concerned about his play, but his past three games have been truly encouraging. After racking up a 13% sack rate in Weeks 1-7, he has had just a 5% rate over the past three. His sack-to-pressure ratio dropped from 0.37 to 0.17, too. Howell has enough big-play ability that if he can limit the sacks -- against the Giants and going forward -- he has real upside.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up -- and can start this week
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers (39.5% rostered)
Doubs -- not Christian Watson -- has emerged as the Packers' most reliable receiver. In three of his past four games, he has scored 11.0 or more fantasy points and had five or more targets. Quarterback Jordan Love and his receivers have an excellent matchup against the Chargers at Lambeau Field on deck, too. Los Angeles' defense allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals (34.6% rostered)
With Kyler Murray back under center, the Cardinals' offense is on the rise -- which is good news for Moore. He had a season-high eight targets against the Falcons last week, the second most on the team. And last season, Moore averaged 11.6 fantasy points when Murray was under center. Arizona gets Houston this weekend.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (30.6% rostered)
Stafford is back from a right thumb injury, so it's imperative the Rams lean more on Kupp, Nacua, Tutu Atwell and the rest of their passing game. Stafford has averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game against Seattle since he has been with the Rams. And the Seahawks have allowed 173.7 rushing yards per game over their past three outings, which should open things up for him in the passing game. This is a fairly high floor, but I also believe Stafford has a much higher ceiling.
Tyler Conklin, TE, New York Jets (16.6% rostered)
In consecutive games, Conklin has had six or more targets and scored 12 or more fantasy points. Over that period, only Garrett Wilson (25) had more targets than Conklin (14) on the Jets. Quarterback Zach Wilson also has his highest yards per attempt throwing to Conklin (8.6) among Jets pass-catchers with at least 10 targets. With New York as an underdog against Buffalo on Sunday, it should need to rely more on the passing game, too.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys (7.8% rostered)
Dowdle set season highs in rushing attempts (12), rushing yards (79) and fantasy points (13.9) last week against the Giants. With the Cowboys heavily favored against the Panthers on Sunday, there's potential for him to once again see increased snaps and touches. Plus, Carolina's defense ranks second in giving up fantasy points per game to running backs, having allowed 15 touchdowns to the position.
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday's action
Cowboys running back Tony Pollard will rush for over 70 yards
I know Seth and Eric both pointed to Dowdle, but I also see some upside for Pollard here. Yes, he has rushed for over 70 yards in only three games this season, and he hasn't hit that mark since Week 3 against the Cardinals. But I like the run game matchup against the Panthers' defense, a unit allowing 4.3 yards per rush this season. An explosive-play run would help here, too, and Pollard has the perimeter speed to make that happen.
Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon will have an interception
Stafford has thrown an interception in five of his eight starts this season, with multiple interceptions in two. This is where Witherspoon can cash in on Stafford's aggressive throwing mentality. The rookie corner has just one interception this season, but he has nine pass breakups. He's an urgent defender who is around the ball for a reason.
Dolphins receiver Jaylen Waddle will score a touchdown
Waddle has a touchdown in three of his past five games, and Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel will have answers to attack the Raiders' split-safety coverages on Sunday. This season, Las Vegas has played two-high coverage on 47.2% of opponent dropbacks. So I'm looking for a clear-and-replace concept, with Waddle running the deep in-breaker. There's open grass to attack after the catch there.
Bears receiver DJ Moore will have over 65 receiving yards
Moore failed to post over 60 yards receiving in each of his past four games -- but that was with Tyson Bagent starting at quarterback for the Bears. With Justin Fields healthy and slated to play Sunday against the Lions, Moore can be deployed as a volume target. Look for screens and quick-throw routes early to utilize Moore's catch-and-run traits, in addition to the vertical targets on the boundary. Remember, he had 230 receiving yards in Fields' last full game, a win over Washington in early October.
49ers edge rusher Chase Young will have a sack
In his first game with the 49ers last week, Young had a half-sack and two pressures in the win over Jacksonville. I think Young -- who has a pass rush win rate of 24.1% this season, eighth best in the NFL -- gets a sack against Tampa Bay out of a schemed front, which creates an edge one-on-one to close on quarterback Baker Mayfield.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (questionable, hamstring) is likely out for the Denver game. Minnesota wants him 100 percent healthy, and he still hasn't logged a full practice yet. The Vikings' Week 12 matchup is against Chicago on Monday, Nov. 27, giving him an extra day of prep.
Several other star receivers with the questionable tag around the league are pushing to play, including Keenan Allen (shoulder), Tyler Lockett (hamstring) and Garrett Wilson (elbow). Lockett isn't a slam dunk, but he has played through the hamstring issue for the past month, even through sacrificed practice time.
The Bengals are devastated but plan to regroup after Joe Burrow's season-ending right wrist injury. Jake Browning is the guy for now. "Joe gives us our best chance of winning football games, but moving forward, Jake's got us," wide receiver Tyler Boyd said. "We got to rally him up, and we got to rally around him. And make even more plays for him."
Added Browning: "I've got a lot of confidence in myself. I think I'm borderline delusional when it comes to optimism that, 'Hey, I'm going to be able to win the game.'"
AJ McCarron is the practice squad option, and Joe Flacco is considered the best free agent available. He has worked out for the Browns, but they haven't signed him yet. Perhaps Ryan Tannehill could be an option if he works out a release with Tennessee, because of his desire to play.
The Commanders are hoping their offense -- led by Sam Howell, the NFL's leading passer (2,783 yards) -- can get the team going during a tenuous time. Washington (4-6) has the Giants, Cowboys and Dolphins before a Week 14 bye. Without a positive uptick during that stretch, coach Ron Rivera will be going on a fourth consecutive losing season, which is tough to overcome.
But the Commanders are encouraged by the state of the offense under coordinator Eric Bieniemy. Receiver Jahan Dotson told me Washington "can be one of the best offenses in the league."