Every NFL team now has at least eight games in the books, which means we've unofficially reached the midway point of the 2023 season. There's plenty of football to play, but for the most part, the teams to beat in each division have been identified, and the early candidates for Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Feb. 11 are in.
ESPN marked the occasion by talking to a number of NFL executives, attempting to gauge where insiders believe the division races are headed, as well as the two teams that will still be playing football in February:
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AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West | SBLVIII
Dolphins or Bills in the AFC East? Opinions vary
Both Miami, which fell to Kansas City, and Buffalo, which came up short in Cincinnati, looked average in marquee games with statement potential Sunday, raising questions about a division once lauded as arguably the game's strongest.
Miami has shown the ability to bully bad teams, averaging 39 points per game against .500-or-worse squads. That production dwindles against teams with winning records, where the Dolphins are 0-3 and averaging 17 points per game. The Dolphins are perceived as pretenders until they figure that out.
"They are like a Big 12 team -- they are a tough matchup and can put up huge points at any time, but the games they've lost aren't flukes either," an AFC executive said. "They've gotten beat by contenders in multiple years, so there's some truth to that narrative for now. But they have the personnel to figure that out, and you know Vic Fangio's defense should only get better as the year goes on."
Meanwhile, the Bills are shaky away from Buffalo, with a 1-4 record on the road.
One AFC scout says there are times when "everything looks hard on offense" for the Bills, who become overreliant on Josh Allen to make things happen in a spread-out system.
"But I still trust them -- they are well-coached, have good players and teams still have to play in Buffalo in December, which is always tough," an AFC executive said.
Added a veteran NFL scout: "They still need a No. 2 receiver. [Tight end Dalton Kincaid] appears to be that. Their safeties are old, losing [linebacker] Matt Milano was a killer and they don't run the football. They've got some issues." The good news: Allen and Kincaid are developing a strong connection. Kincaid has a 23% target share over the past two weeks. The Vikings are a great story. Joshua Dobbs running all over the Falcons without knowing the playbook after being traded to Minnesota five days earlier will forever live in 2023 folklore. And the Vikings' four-game winning streak is a testament to what coach Kevin O'Connell is building. But most people in the league don't expect the Lions (6-2) to fumble their NFC North lead. Detroit's offensive talent is as good as just about anyone's. "Could you imagine giving [Patrick] Mahomes Detroit's skill guys? They'd be scoring a gazillion points," an NFL personnel executive said. "Plus, they are solid all over, from the defense to the offensive line. Jared Goff has done a great job the last two years of protecting the football. I'm curious how they use both backs when David Montgomery returns. How do they use him with Jahmyr Gibbs together as the season progresses?" While Minnesota largely is not considered a contender, some people in the league have lamented the loss of what could have been with a Kirk Cousins-led Vikings. With Justin Jefferson possibly returning alongside Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, Dobbs will have plenty of targets. Cousins was playing at a top-10 level before his injury. The Vikings went 51-39-1 with Cousins under center since he joined the team in 2018. "With those weapons on offense and the offensive line playing better, they could have made a mini-run," an NFC exec said. "Especially with Justin Jefferson coming back. Most defenses under Brian Flores play a lot of man [coverage] and need time on task to develop that. And you're seeing them play better of late." Philadelphia's 28-23 win over Dallas on Sunday validated well-worn themes for both teams: Jalen Hurts and the Eagles simply know how to win, even ugly, and the Cowboys have a roster to compete with anyone ... even though such talent is often not enough. "They are close, but just can't seem to win those 'got to have it' games," one NFL executive said Sunday night. "But they will be a threat in January, no doubt. They have too much firepower on both sides of the ball." Especially if Dak Prescott can relocate his play of the past three weeks when he needs it. It's hard to find a hotter quarterback than Prescott, who has 950 yards, 8 touchdowns and 1 interception since Week 7. "It just feels like if CeeDee [Lamb] doesn't catch 14 passes, then they struggle to outscore teams," an AFC scout added. The Eagles are doing just fine with first-year offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, ranking in the top five of almost every statistical category. And Hurts' impact on winning is real -- he has won 12 straight against teams with winning records in the regular season. The only quarterbacks with longer such streaks since 1950 are Peyton Manning (2008-10) and Vinny Testaverde (1998-2000). But this year's average margin of victory (7.9 points) is a slight concern. "[The Eagles] still need to shore up the secondary -- you saw that last night -- but they are the toughest team to beat because of the way they dictate pace with their line play," an NFL personnel official said. "In close games, they can always close it out by running the ball or making plays on defense." The consensus before Sunday: The Ravens are a realistic contender. The consensus after Sunday, when Baltimore blew out another good team? "They are scary," an AFC executive said Sunday night. That's now a pair of 30-plus-point wins over good NFC teams over the past three weeks: a 38-6 drubbing of Detroit in Week 7 followed by a 37-3 Seattle sendoff to make Baltimore the clear AFC North favorite in the eyes of evaluators. While quarterback Lamar Jackson's growth as a passer under offensive coordinator Todd Monken is well-chronicled, it's the defense that channels those great Baltimore units of the past. Baltimore leads the NFL with 35 team sacks and ranks second in yards allowed (262.6 per game) under second-year defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. Couple that pressure with Jackson's best supporting cast in years, and Baltimore looks poised for a breakthrough. "Baltimore is legit. Quietly, the defense always has been very respected, but to me the last 2-3 years it hasn't been as good," an AFC personnel evaluator said. "But this year's defense is matching up with just about anybody, and the new offense helps as well." Five of Baltimore's final eight games are at home, where Jackson is 16-2 in his regular-season career in November or later. But this is hardly a runaway division. In fact, Cincinnati might be better than last year's group, after resounding back-to-back wins over San Francisco and Buffalo. "They have an identity -- they can always rush the passer, and they have multiple elite playmakers that Joe Burrow utilizes well," an AFC exec said of the Bengals. "That always travels. And they seem to peak late in the year." After Sunday, four of the AFC's top seven records belonged to the AFC North, thanks to Cleveland's impressive defense and Pittsburgh's resolve. If the Browns can knock off the Ravens this week, their profile elevates. While Seattle is a threat, most NFL observers expect San Francisco to secure the NFC West soon enough. The teams are tied at 5-3. The 49ers' three-game skid shouldn't negate their Super Bowl aspirations. On offense, Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk have missed time recently. "Do you really panic when you have all of the guys [the Niners] have?" an NFL scouting official said. "They still have the best players. I think they know they need all of their pieces around Brock Purdy. When you start winning, you want to give your QB more, but then he struggles without his top guys. I don't knock him for that -- even the best need help. It doesn't make him less valuable, but that's the way the roster is constructed." One concern from an AFC official: "If they get behind and the QB has to throw a bunch, is he good enough to beat you? The last few weeks have been a struggle in that regard." Multiple people tied some of San Francisco's recent defensive struggles to losing two coordinators -- Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans -- to head-coaching jobs since 2021. That's a lot of change for new coordinator Steve Wilks and the defense to figure out. The 49ers didn't add a cornerback at the trade deadline but did add Chase Young, who will be motivated in a contract year. There's little doubt who engenders the most trust to win the AFC West. For as long as quarterback Patrick Mahomes, coach Andy Reid and tight end Travis Kelce form an all-powerful trio akin to Voltron, the answer is easy. But a few cracks in the foundation are showing. Kansas City's 17 turnovers are tied with the Browns for the league high. Last year, the Chiefs' 23 turnovers were tied for eighth most. And the Chiefs don't have a wide receiver on pace for 800 or more yards on the season, which would be a first since 2016 for the organization. Mahomes swears the Chiefs are close to putting it all together. Until then, he can rely on a top-shelf defense that hasn't given up more than 24 points all year. "They look like they are still figuring things out, and Mahomes has pressed a little," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "I always trust them to get right over the course of a season. But there feels like more uncertainty there offensively than in past years." The Chiefs had high hopes for Kadarius Toney, who has a paltry 109 receiving yards. "Rashee Rice will have to step up and be that guy," the evaluator said. "Has to." The Chargers are considered the biggest threat to Kansas City. "Dangerous but unpredictable" is what one NFL personnel man called them. The 6-2 Jaguars are sitting on a two-game lead in the AFC South coming off the bye. The remaining schedule is daunting with the 49ers, Ravens and Bengals on deck over the final six weeks. But Jacksonville proved capable in previous matchups with the Bills and Chiefs. After a 1-2 start, Jacksonville is the league's only undefeated team since Week 4. When evaluators forecast future playoff winners, they look for complete teams. And Jacksonville has just about every ingredient for a postseason recipe: top-10 quarterback, proven head coach with offensive pedigree, a talented arsenal of skill players and an opportunistic defense. The cornerback tandem of Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams is considered one of the league's most underrated. The defense ranks fifth in third-down rate and seventh in net yards allowed per passing attempt. "Jacksonville is a bad matchup for certain teams," a high-ranking AFC scout said. "Buffalo seems to be one. They always play them tough. Doug [Pederson] does a really good job with the offensive game plan. When you can't get pressure with four, it's hard, because he knows how to beat the blitz." The biggest threat to Jacksonville is, undoubtedly, Houston, which has intriguing receiving options for an ascending C.J. Stroud. The Texans are playing inspired football for first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans. "[Stroud] has been way better than I thought," an AFC executive said. "Really impressive. Proved me wrong." The only near certainty in the NFL's weakest division is that the Panthers aren't contending for a Super Bowl this year. But the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons have shown glimpses of playoff potential. The Saints are considered the safest bet of the group, now that Derek Carr looks more comfortable in the offense over the past two weeks. "Defense is sound, physical, big, offensive line very good, their running backs and wide receivers are dynamic," an AFC personnel man said of New Orleans. "QB is streaky -- they'd be a 12-4 team if he were more consistent in my opinion." The consensus after an informal survey for way-too-early picks: Ravens vs. Eagles. Philly vies for a third Super Bowl appearance in six years, while the Ravens would record their first appearance since the Joe Flacco-led Ravens got there in the 2013 season. Dark horse selections include the Jaguars and the Bengals. "Jacksonville should be in the conversation," an AFC personnel man said. And a separate NFL evaluator made this point about Cincinnati: "Love the Ravens, but if all things equal, two-minute drill, I'm taking Burrow over Lamar."
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