BALTIMORE -- Sunday's Week 9 Seahawks-Ravens matchup shaped up as a good one. First-place Seattle flying across the country to take on first-place Baltimore. A tough Seattle run defense against a typically tough Ravens rushing offense. Geno Smith against Lamar Jackson. Good litmus test for two good, evenly matched teams.
The problem was, nobody told the Ravens. For the second time in three weeks, they welcomed a first-place NFC team to Baltimore by absolutely dismantling them. After crushing Detroit 38-6 in Week 7, the Ravens beat the Seahawks 37-3 on Sunday, pushing them around at the line of scrimmage, making Smith's life miserable with their pass rush and rolling up 298 rushing yards against a team that came in allowing under 100 per game.
"We're just staying locked in," Jackson said. "Just playing every opponent the same way. Physicality, playing smart and defending what's ours. Defending our home turf. We've got guys that are hungry."
The win improved Baltimore's record to 7-2, good for first place in an AFC North in which every team has a winning record. The Ravens have won four games in a row, are 4-1 on the road and are outscoring their opponents by 13 points per game. What's more, five of their remaining eight games are at home. And to reiterate, they have beaten the first-place Lions and the first-place Seahawks by a combined score of 75-9 in their past two home contests. That's the kind of thing that might make some people ... well ... overreact. Let's judge some Week 9 takeaways as we hit midseason in the NFL.
Jump to:
Ravens as the AFC's top seed?
Dolphins flaming out in the playoffs?
Stroud in the MVP mix?
Eagles already won the NFC East?
Giants drafting a QB?
The Ravens will be the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs
If the season ended today, the Ravens would be the No. 2 seed. They have the same record as the Chiefs, and Kansas City would win the tiebreaker based on a better record in conference games. But the season does not end today, and while recent history tells us it's a bad bet to predict the AFC Championship Game will be held anywhere but Kansas City, the Ravens have to have your attention.
Baltimore has played three teams this season that entered the game with a winning record, and not only has it beaten all three, but it has done so by a combined score of 103-12. For the season, Baltimore is allowing 13.8 points per game. The last time the Ravens were this stingy in their first nine games was 2000 -- when they went on to win the Super Bowl.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
It won't be easy. And in fact, we'll be better equipped to answer this question 11 days from now, after the Ravens have played two key division games against the Browns and Bengals. If they win those two games -- at home against teams they've already beaten on the road -- they'll be firmly in command of the AFC North.
Their remaining road games are in Los Angeles (Chargers), Jacksonville and San Francisco, so not easy. But the Ravens look like the scariest team in the league right now. Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is on as good a roll as anyone in the league, and Jackson and the offense have taken to Todd Monken's system.
The Chiefs are playing really good defense, but even they would admit their offense hasn't been as explosive as we've become accustomed to. Right now, taking into account both sides of the ball, the Ravens are playing better football than anyone in the entire league. And as long as they can keep their quarterback healthy, there's no reason to expect that to stop anytime soon.
The Dolphins will flame out in the playoffs because they can't beat good teams
Yeah, it happened again. The Dolphins, who can look as unstoppable as any offense in the NFL when they're on their game, went up against a team with a winning record and lost. Against the Chiefs in Frankfurt, Germany, Miami fell behind 21-0, made it a game with a couple of second-half touchdowns but fell short, losing 21-14. Against teams with winning records this season, the Dolphins are 0-3 and average 17 points. Against teams that don't have winning records, they're 6-0 and average 39 points.
There are five games left on their schedule against teams that have winning records. Two are against the Jets, and they finish the season at home vs. the Cowboys, at Baltimore and at home vs. the Bills. At this point, each of the latter three teams seems likely to have a winning record by the time they see the Dolphins.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Until you show me you can do it, I have the right to think you can't do it. I like Miami. The Dolphins are a lot of fun to watch. I think it would be great for the league if coach Mike McDaniel and his high-octane offense were capable of making a real Super Bowl run. It'd be a heck of a week in Las Vegas. But they're just a very different team when the opponent is good than when the opponent is Denver.
And until the Dolphins prove otherwise, that dichotomy serves as evidence that they're a front-running team for which everything has to go right for them to win. There is time for the Dolphins to prove us wrong on this, but Sunday was their latest opportunity to do so, and they did not.
C.J. Stroud is an MVP candidate -- and will be for years to come
What an absolutely ridiculous performance on Sunday by the Texans rookie quarterback against the Buccaneers. He completed 30 of 42 passes for 470 yards -- the most passing yards ever in a game by a rookie -- with five touchdowns and no interceptions. After the Buccaneers scored with 46 seconds left in the game to take a four-point lead, Stroud led the Texans 75 yards on six plays in 40 seconds for the game-winning touchdown.
He has thrown 14 touchdown passes and just one interception this season, and that ties him with Patrick Mahomes for the most touchdown passes ever before a player's second career interception. The Texans, predicted by many to be one of the worst teams in the league, are 4-4 and in contention for a playoff spot.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Why not? If the Texans can finish this season with a winning record and Stroud is playing like this, he's definitely going to show up on some MVP ballots.
More importantly, the first half of his rookie season has shown that Stroud belongs in the NFL -- it's not too big for him. The Texans' coaching staff, led by first-time head coach DeMeco Ryans and first-time offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, have shepherded Stroud into the league beautifully, and they aren't babying him. He was 7-for-10 for 214 yards and three touchdowns Sunday on throws that traveled at least 15 yards downfield.
It appears so far that the Texans hit a complete home run with the No. 2 pick in this year's draft, and as they build up the roster around him in the coming years, it's fun to imagine what's possible.
The NFC East race is over, and the Eagles have won it
In what might have been the highest-stakes rivalry game of the week, the Eagles outlasted the Cowboys at home 28-23 to move 2½ games in front of Dallas in the division. The Cowboys gave the defending division and conference champs everything they could handle, but in the end, their red zone struggles on offense did them in.
Dallas came up about a half-inch short of the end zone on a fourth-and-goal, and Dak Prescott later stepped out of bounds just short of the goal line on a 2-point conversion attempt that would have cut the lead to three points. The Cowboys worked their way into field goal range in the final two minutes, but because they were down by five, they had to go for it on fourth down, and they did not get it.
They got the ball back at their own 14 with 46 seconds left, and with the help of a series of Eagles penalties, got back into the red zone. But as usual, once they got there, they failed to score. A false start on first-and-5 from the 6. A sack on first-and-10 from the 11. A delay of game on third-and-21 from the 22. And then CeeDee Lamb came up just a couple of yards short of the end zone on the game's final play.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
It has been 19 years since anyone repeated as NFC East champions. You can tell me all you want that it'll happen eventually, but I'm going to reserve the right to believe it when I see it. Something weird always happens to prevent it, no matter how obviously superior the defending champ may be. So while I fully acknowledge that the Eagles are better than the Cowboys and should win the division, history still tells me to withhold my full endorsement.
There are some other reasons to think this thing isn't over, including the upcoming schedules. The Eagles go on bye in Week 10, and when they come back, they head into the teeth of a schedule gauntlet: at Kansas City, home vs, the Bills, home vs. the 49ers, at Dallas for a critical rematch and then home vs. Seattle. The Eagles are 8-1 and good enough to beat anybody, but that's a brutal stretch that actually started with an incredibly difficult win Sunday.
Meanwhile, Dallas licks its wounds but gets the Giants, Panthers and Commanders the next three weeks before a home game against Seattle and the rematch against the Eagles. The Cowboys face a tough December stretch (at Bills, at Dolphins, home vs. Lions), while the Eagles finish their season Giants-Cardinals-Giants, so the end of the schedule favors Philly.
But it's not impossible to believe the Cowboys can make up some ground ahead of the Dec. 10 rematch in Dallas. And obviously based on the way Sunday's game in Philly went, the difference between these two teams doesn't look massive. Stay tuned. It's the NFC East, after all.
The Giants will select a quarterback in the first round of next year's draft
The Giants' playoff victory over the Vikings was 10 months ago, but somehow it feels like it has been 10 years. A 30-6 loss to Antonio Pierce's Raiders on Sunday dropped the Giants to 2-7 for the season, and somehow that wasn't the worst part.
Starting quarterback Daniel Jones left the game with a right knee injury that's feared to be a torn ACL, and with backup Tyrod Taylor (ribs) already on injured reserve, that likely means Tommy DeVito or Matt Barkley the rest of the way at QB. If the season ended right now, the Giants would hold the No. 4 pick in the draft. But considering the injury situation, there aren't many teams with a bleaker second-half outlook than the Giants.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
What??? Don't you remember, Dan, that they signed Jones to a four-year contract back in March?
Of course I do, skeptical disembodied voice. But you know as well as I do that a "four-year contract" isn't always a four-year contract in the NFL. The truth about Jones' deal is that the Giants owe him $36 million in fully guaranteed money next season (gulp) but can get out of the deal after 2024 without owing him another dime. There's a $23 million injury guarantee for 2025, but even if he tore his ACL, it's hard to imagine Jones not being able to pass a physical by March 2025. So this is really a two-year deal, and Jones obviously is in jeopardy of missing the start of its second year.
Given the way NFL teams feel about the 2024 quarterback class, any team with a top-five pick would be doing itself a disservice if it didn't at least consider taking one. If the Giants -- who just had their seventh straight game with fewer than 20 points scored -- can get high enough to land USC's Caleb Williams or North Carolina's Drake Maye, then Jones' $36 million next season would be a small price to pay for moving into the future with a different guy at quarterback. Do not rule this scenario out.