We're on to the ninth weekend of the 2023 NFL season and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out, including some player props. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine the winners
Will Jonathan Taylor beat the Panthers in the receiving game?
While Taylor is still splitting Colts running back duties with Zack Moss, he is getting the bulk of the receiving work out of the backfield, running 38 routes over the past two weeks to Moss' 21.
That's a great sign for his production because the Colts play the Panthers this week, and Carolina runs zone coverage 69% of the time, the second-highest rate in the league. Running backs have recorded receptions on 9% of dropbacks against man coverage this season but 15% against zone coverage. Thus, Taylor -- who has 10 receptions in 2023 -- should have plenty of opportunity for catches in Week 9.
Can Micah Parsons get past the Eagles' star offensive tackles?
Because he has only six sacks this season, Parsons might be a little underrated by some. But he has been pretty special yet again. The star Cowboys edge rusher has a 33.8% pass rush win rate, which puts him on pace for the highest PRWR in the history of the metric (going back to 2017), just ahead of Joey Bosa's 33.7% in 2017. He also has an 18.1% pressure rate, second best since 2017.
But he'll have a challenge against the Eagles offensive tackles -- Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata -- on Sunday, and that may well determine the outcome of the Cowboys-Eagles game. Parsons plays both sides but has been lining up more frequently against the right tackle this year. That would put him against Johnson, who ranks fourth in pass block win rate among tackles (93.1%).
Will the Vikings need to rely heavily on Jaren Hall against the Falcons?
Though Minnesota traded for Joshua Dobbs at the deadline, coach Kevin O'Connell has said the team will start Hall, a fifth-round rookie, against the Falcons this week. But if the Vikings are hoping to make Hall's life easy with a heavy use of the ground game, that might not work.
The Falcons rank first in expected points added per designed rush allowed on defense and eighth in run stop win rate. And the Vikings have gotten a combined negative-98 rush yards over expectation from their running backs this season, third worst in the NFL. In other words, Minnesota is going to need Hall to put the ball in the air to score points against Atlanta.
Will receivers cost Kansas City against Miami?
I'm somewhat surprised by the Chiefs walking away from the trade deadline only with Mecole Hardman Jr. All the concern about the Chiefs' problems at wide receiver is very much real.
Here's the number that stands out the most to me: In our team receiver tracking metrics ratings for wide receivers only, Kansas City ranks last in catch score with a 9. It's actually the worst score by any team in any category when looking only at wide receivers. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes can make up for the receiver weakness against many teams, but Miami might not be one of them because the Dolphins bring their high-flying offense on the other side of the ball to Germany.
Could Kwity Paye's quicker first step cause problems for Carolina?
Paye, a 2021 first-round pick by the Colts, has been only OK in his NFL career with 13 sacks in 34 games and a pass rush win rate under 10% in each of his first two seasons. But he's improving his jump. Paye's pass rush get-off (time to cross line of scrimmage) has gone from a slow 0.96 seconds as a rookie to a roughly average 0.85 seconds in 2022 to a better-than-average 0.77 seconds this season.
Those are unusually strong improvements, and they have helped his pass rush win rate jump from 8% to 10% to 13% in each respective year. That 13% still isn't great for an edge rusher, but at least it's on the rise. Paye will mostly face a solid Taylor Moton on Sunday, but if he gets snaps on the other side, he would see the struggling Ikem Ekwonu -- and that could be Paye's chance to cash in for some sacks. He logged sacks in each of the first three games this season but didn't record a single one in October.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up -- and can start this week
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals (33.7% rostered)
Considering Sam LaPorta, Evan Engram and George Kittle are on byes, I'm surprised McBride's roster percentage is so low. Zach Ertz is out with a quadriceps injury, and McBride turned 14 targets into 25.5 fantasy points last week. That makes him just the fourth tight end since 2000 to get at least 14 targets in a game at age 23 or younger and the fourth to have 10 or more receptions and 95 receiving yards in a game in his first two seasons. With Clayton Tune under center, McBride is not in the best spot this week against the Browns -- but he's still a viable sleeper.
Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints (31.0% rostered)
Carr has dealt with injuries this season, but he has been very consistent recently and has a really good supporting cast. He has 15 fantasy points or more in each of his past four games. And now the Saints face a Bears defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.
Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints (26.7% rostered)
Chris Olave hasn't been on the same page with Carr, catching just 57% of his targets for 517 yards this season. That has opened the door for Shaheed, who continues to make the most of his opportunities. He's averaging just 4.8 targets per game, yet has delivered 1.9 fantasy points per target and leads the NFL in air yards per target (18.0). Against a Bears defense that has allowed the third-most passing yards per game, Shaheed is definitely on the sleeper radar.
Royce Freeman, RB, Los Angeles Rams (20.7% rostered)
Freeman is operating in a committee in the Rams' backfield with Darrell Henderson, but he has had 10 or more touches in consecutive games and finished with 10.4 fantasy points against the Cowboys in Week 8. The Rams now face a Packers defense that allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, and quarterback Matthew Stafford is nursing a thumb injury, which could mean more work for the run game. Los Angeles' offensive line ranks 11th in run block win rate, which only adds to Freeman's sleeper appeal.
Demario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots (14.6% rostered)
With Kendrick Bourne out for the season (torn ACL), Douglas should see more targets going forward. He is the only other receiver on the Patriots who consistently creates separation from defenders, making him a reliable fantasy option. He is coming off his second straight game with at least five targets and has a good matchup with Washington on deck. The Commanders allow the fourth-most passing yards per game.
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday's action
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts will rush for over 35 yards
Hurts has topped 35 rushing yards three times this season, and he has at least nine rushing attempts in five straight contests. In addition to the designed carries in the Eagles' playbook, Hurts might be forced to play outside of structure against Dallas. The Cowboys are likely to bring pressure, which means Hurts will look to escape the pocket and attack the edges as a runner.
Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson will catch at least five passes
Stevenson has five or more receptions in only three games played this season, but he will have opportunities as a checkdown target for quarterback Mac Jones against Washington. The Commanders have played split-safety coverage (Cover 2, Quarters) on 52.1% of opponent dropbacks this season, and that's where Stevenson can make himself available as an underneath outlet.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will run for a touchdown
Mahomes hasn't rushed for a TD since Christmas Eve last season against Seattle, but he has at least six carries in three of his past four games. I'm looking for Mahomes to find an open rush lane in the red zone here. He can create outside of structure, and with the Dolphins' back seven matching in coverage, he could tuck one and get into the end zone on the ground.
Commanders quarterback Sam Howell will throw more than 35 passes
Howell has attempted 94 passes in his past two games, and he has topped the 35-attempt mark in five of eight games on the season. Given the offensive structure in Washington and Howell's gunslinger mentality, we should expect a heavy volume day for the Commanders' quarterback.
Bengals receiver Tee Higgins will catch a touchdown
Higgins hasn't scored since he had two in Week 2, but I think he gets one Sunday night against Buffalo from the high red zone -- maybe on a back-shoulder throw from quarterback Joe Burrow. Higgins, who had at least six TD catches in each of his first three seasons, can be deployed from an inside alignment to work the seams against Cover 2, which we will see from the Buffalo defense.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
Regarding Stafford, a source told me on Friday evening, "Don't count him out." The Rams are leaving the light on for Stafford, who hasn't practiced at all this week. Typically, that's a clear signal that a player will be out. And yes, the Rams prepped backup quarterback Brett Rypien to play. But Stafford's thumb injury is improving, so the Rams want to give him more time in case he can perk up and start.
Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith is trending up for the Eagles game. He hasn't had a setback this week, participated in Friday's practice and is scheduled to do the same on Saturday. Most of the Cowboys' starting offensive line has missed at least some time this season, so this week is a chance to get all five starters in the lineup. Smith's backup, Chuma Edoga (ankle/knee), is also questionable.
The Browns have prepared for both of Arizona's quarterbacks -- Kyler Murray and Clayton Tune -- in case the Cardinals activate Murray, who is listed as questionable and is making the trip. But the feeling here is Murray playing would be a mild surprise. Facing one of the NFL's top defenses on the road would be a tough task for Murray in his first game back. This could be a scenario where Arizona gives Tune a one-game look and goes from there.
A few quick notes on Las Vegas' Aidan O'Connell and Minnesota's Hall, a pair of Day 3 rookie quarterbacks starting Sunday:
O'Connell impressed enough in the preseason that some in the Raiders building believed he should have been playing much earlier than Week 9. One high-ranking NFL evaluator who saw O'Connell's Week 4 start vs. the Chargers said O'Connell can see the field from the pocket and is accurate to the first- and second-levels of the field. "Not a creator, but I think he can definitely see the game, throws a catchable ball and has toughness," the official said.
It's worth noting that Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell did extensive work on the 2023 quarterback class, knowing Minnesota might need one with Kirk Cousins entering 2024 free agency. Clearly he was sold on Hall, who landed in the fifth round -- typically flier territory. The sense I got this week is that Minnesota's confident with him starting a game.