The 2023 NFL trade deadline is behind us, which means the next significant opportunity for major player movement will be the 2024 offseason. And if you think teams aren't already thinking about that, you're wrong.
In fact, the offseason is a little more than two months away for some franchises. Even the best ones have only have 3½ months to wait. Six teams -- the Saints, Chargers, Dolphins, Bills, Cowboys and Broncos -- currently project to be over the 2024 salary cap, and the 49ers are very close to being a seventh. And while the Bears, Patriots, Commanders and Raiders have comfortable cap space, they could all see significant changes in their decision-makers this offseason (or in the case of Las Vegas, already have).
All of this means there will be player movement -- trades, releases, pay cuts and decisions not to re-sign -- that surprise us. You can't predict surprises (if you could, they wouldn't be surprises), but we can look ahead, analyze cap and contract situations and come up with at least a few potential eyebrow-raisers that might come as a shock to people who have other things to do with their time besides dig in on NFL contracts all day.
So that's what we did here in this early-November, post-trade-deadline exercise -- looked ahead to the offseason and tried to predict some not-so-obvious "move-ons." I'm not saying all of these guys are getting cut, traded or whatever. I'm just looking at contracts, rosters and other circumstances and picking out what's possible. And in most cases, these players and teams could decide to part ways based on circumstances that don't necessarily have to do with how much they like each other.
Let's dive in on this partial list -- a snapshot, if you will -- that points to 14 players whose respective teams might surprisingly choose to move on next spring, listed in no particular order.
Jump to a player on a team:
CLE | DAL | DEN | GB | IND | KC
LAC | MIA | NO | SF | SEA
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
The Saints currently project to be about $70 million over the 2024 salary cap. This is ludicrous, of course, and the next-worst situation is the Buffalo Bills at about $29 million over the cap. But this is how the Saints live. They're like a struggling family with massive credit card debt -- they have the bills paid for this year, and they'll worry about next year when it gets here. Their front office, especially cap specialist and assistant GM Khai Harley, are absolute masters of working restructures and clearing massive amounts of cap space season after season. Most teams think it's a really tough way to live, but it's how the Saints roll, and it seems to work for them.
I say all of that as a disclaimer, because of course it's possible they find a way to keep Kamara on next year's roster despite their cap issues. They do that sort of thing all the time, pushing bigger cap issues into future years, and there's no reason to think they wouldn't do it again. But Kamara is scheduled to earn $12.8 million next season in salary and bonuses in a market that doesn't seem to want to pay running backs a dime more than necessary. He's scheduled to earn $25 million in 2025, but none of the 2024 or 2025 money is guaranteed. Frankly, the 2025 number is a pure fantasy -- a made-up number put in there at the time of signing so the player could claim a higher average annual salary than what he'd actually earn.
So effectively, Kamara, who turns 29 next summer, will have one more real year left on his deal after 2023. The Saints drafted Kendre Miller in the third round (which is generally not a great sign for an expensive incumbent running back in his late 20s), and Jamaal Williams' $3.15 million 2024 salary is guaranteed, which means Kamara's backup has guaranteed money next year while he doesn't. All of this adds up to a keep-an-eye-on-it situation with Kamara, who is averaging 3.7 yards per carry, has caught 39 passes and has three total TDs over five games this season.
The Saints' cap woes are such that Kamara isn't the only veteran to watch. Tight end/quarterback Taysom Hill, linebacker Demario Davis and safety Tyrann Mathieu are among others whose deals don't look like they can stay the same if the Saints are to get under the 2024 cap. Kamara just happens to play a very vulnerable position, and designating him as a post-June 1 cut would save New Orleans $11.8 million in cap space.
Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns
Cooper, 29, is still playing on that very straightforward $20 million-per-year deal that the Cowboys gave him in March 2020. That got too expensive for Dallas once it drafted CeeDee Lamb and prompted the team to trade Cooper to Cleveland. The deal runs through 2024, though none of Cooper's $20 million salary in 2024 is guaranteed. The Browns restructured the deal when they got him in March 2022, which means they have a little bit of dead money if they cut him next spring. But they'd also save $12.5 million on next year's cap if they cut or trade him, and they'd save $20 million if they made him a post-June 1 cut.
Could they extend Cooper to knock his cap number down and keep him? Sure. He has been a very good player for them -- he was 12th in receiving last season with 1,160 yards, and he has 478 in seven games this season -- and there's no reason other than money and age to even think about it. But when you're paying your quarterback $46 million per season fully guaranteed and can barely get him on the field, you end up having to confront some tough choices elsewhere on your roster. The Browns project to be tight to the cap in 2024, and there's no moving on from Deshaun Watson.
Chris Jones, DT Kansas City Chiefs
Jones is an illustration of what the Chiefs' salary cap life is about to be over the next several years. Consider that he's eligible for free agency at the end of this season, the two sides couldn't come to an agreement on a contract extension this past offseason, and it would cost the Chiefs more than $32 million to franchise him in 2024.
Again, could the Chiefs conceivably work something out to keep their best defensive player in the fold beyond 2023? Sure. But they couldn't do that this year, instead agreeing on an incentive-loaded one-year pact in September, and Jones' leverage is only going to be higher next offseason with that untenable franchise-tag number staring them in the face. He is currently tied for 16th in the NFL in sacks (5.5) and tied for ninth in pass rush win rate on the interior (15.0%).
Jones turns 30 years old next July, and if he's going to get one more big payday, it might have to come from a different team.
Tyron Smith, OT, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys' first-round draft pick in 2011, Smith turns 33 in December. Dallas first extended him on an eight-year deal in summer 2014, and ever since that day, the Cowboys have been able to restructure and/or extend Smith's extremely team-friendly contract to get more cap space out of it. Smith, who is 26th among tackles in pass block win rate (88.9%), has been the gift that keeps on giving.
But it might now all be coming to an end. Smith's contract voids at the end of this year, and the Cowboys have to carry a $6 million cap charge for him in 2024 whether he's on the team or not. Again, he is about to be 33 and has had a tough time staying on the field in recent years. The Cowboys also drafted Tyler Smith in the first round in 2022 to replace him (in what my inner 14-year-old still thinks they hoped would be a Dread Pirate Roberts situation, where they just go from one Ty Smith to another and figure nobody would notice).
Who knows if Tyron Smith will even want to keep playing after this season. But with a replacement being groomed and massive extensions on the horizon for Lamb, Micah Parsons and Dak Prescott, he might be playing out the final months of his stellar tenure in Big D.
Multiple candidates from the Los Angeles Chargers
Four players fit from the Chargers here, and I could see Los Angeles moving on from one or two of these stars for various reasons:
Keenan Allen, WR
Mike Williams, WR
Joey Bosa, OLB
Khalil Mack, OLB
The Chargers have big cap problems after this season, currently projecting at about $29 million over the number for 2024. Depending on how the rest of their season goes, we could be looking at potential changes in decision-maker roles and a retooling of the franchise's future around quarterback Justin Herbert. The four guys listed above are key contributors and cornerstone-type players, but sometimes that's not enough to keep you around.
Look at Allen, the 31-year-old mainstay who's still delivering at a high level and is perhaps Herbert's most trusted target (643 yards and four TD catches this season). It's hard to imagine the Chargers without him, but he's owed $23.1 million next season (none of it guaranteed), and they did just select wide receiver Quentin Johnston in the first round of the 2023 draft. Williams is owed $20 million next year (non-guaranteed), just turned 29 and is out for the rest of this season with an ACL tear. Can the Chargers really keep both pass-catchers? And wasn't the Johnston pick a sign that they don't think they can?
On the defensive side, the guarantees on Bosa's deal run out after this season. He's owed $22 million in 2024 and $25.36 million in 2025. Those aren't bad prices for a high-end edge rusher at all, but Bosa missed 12 games last season with a groin injury, and he has been in and out of the lineup this year with health issues. Mack, meanwhile, is seventh in sacks this season with 7.0, but he turns 33 in February and is scheduled to earn about $23 million next season. That money is not guaranteed.
Oh, and add in Austin Ekeler, 28, a running back who's eligible for free agency after this season and has been public about his dissatisfaction with his (and other running backs') contract situations. The Chargers have a lot of tough choices to make with their high-profile players and could look much, much different in key spots around Herbert in 2024 and moving forward.
Justin Simmons, S, Denver Broncos
It feels odd to include a guy who just won AFC Defensive Player of the Week, with an interception, a fumble recovery and two tackles against the Chiefs. But while the Broncos didn't unload any of their big contracts at the trade deadline, there's certainly a chance they look to do it in the offseason. Simmons turns 30 this month and is scheduled to earn $14.5 million (non-guaranteed) next season in the final year of his contract. Denver would incur a minimal $3.75 million in dead money and save that $14.5 million if they cut or traded him.
There are a lot of these kinds of decisions to be made next offseason in Denver, where the Broncos currently project to be over the cap and are saddled with a massive hit from the Russell Wilson deal. But Simmons' contract -- along with those of guys like Garett Bolles and Courtland Sutton -- are among the most vulnerable.
DeForest Buckner, DT, Indianapolis Colts
Still one of the top game-wrecking interior defensive linemen, Buckner is certainly a candidate for an extension. He has four sacks and two forced fumbles in 2023. But the Colts are running a different defense than they were when the team acquired him from the 49ers, and he does turn 30 in March. Plus, Buckner is scheduled to earn a non-guaranteed $20.25 million in 2024, which is the final year of his contract. The dead-money hit for moving on would be just $2.5 million.
The Colts are fine on 2024 cap space and have a quarterback on a rookie contract in Anthony Richardson, so there isn't a screaming financial reason to move on from Buckner for cap relief. But such a move is there for them if they decide to do so for scheme or other reasons.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
The Packers are middle-of-the-pack in projected 2024 cap space, but Jones turns 29 in December and is having trouble staying on the field this season with a hamstring injury. He has only 29 carries over four games. We know the Packers were poking around on Jonathan Taylor when he made his offseason trade demand, too.
Jones will have one year left after this season on a deal he had to rework this past offseason to avoid being cut. The Packers would save $11.45 million next year in cap space if they made him a post-June 1 cut.
David Bakhtiari is the most obvious cap-saving move for Green Bay, but his circumstances are different and well-publicized. Moving on from Jones would be a future-focused decisions and one more piece of evidence that it's tough for a running back in these salary cap streets.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
The 2020 first-round pick is in the middle of a huge season (10th in receiving at 620 yards and averaging 17.7 yards per reception) and has a fully guaranteed $14.124 million coming in 2024 on his fifth-year option. The reason he's listed here is that the 49ers are currently projected over or right up against next year's cap and are already paying out big money to Deebo Samuel at the wide receiver position. And that's not to mention top-of-market money at tight end, left tackle, linebacker ... basically everywhere but quarterback.
Aiyuk will surely be a candidate for an extension, but so will a lot of guys in San Francisco. And since none of the big wide receiver extensions we thought might happen this past offseason got done, it's hard to forecast what will happen to that market once the likes of Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Michael Pittman Jr., Tee Higgins, et al. get their deals. The Niners won't be able to afford to keep everybody, which means Aiyuk could potentially be a trade candidate in the offseason if an extension doesn't happen.
Terron Armstead, OT, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins look pretty capped out for 2024, and a Tua Tagovailoa extension looms on their horizon. Armstead will be 33 years old when training camp starts next season, and he's signed for three more years. Of his $13.25 million salary in 2024, $5 million is already guaranteed, which could be an impediment to moving on. His 94.1% pass block win rate would also rank third among tackles if he qualified.
But he's been having injury issues (knee) and the Dolphins -- like the Niners -- face difficult cap decisions next offseason. Armstead could be a surprise candidate for a trade or a post-June 1 cut, though the latter would force the Dolphins to pay that $5 million in guaranteed money.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Seattle isn't in the worst cap shape, but it could use some help on that front -- and the way quarterback Geno Smith's contract is built, he'll either be in line for another extension very soon, or the Seahawks will be looking for a replacement. So there are expenditures coming that make you wonder at least a little bit about a 31-year-old wide receiver who's scheduled to make $17 million in non-guaranteed salary and bonuses over the next two seasons.
Seattle did use a first-round pick this year on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has been getting more and more playing time. And the Seahawks owe DK Metcalf $31 million over the next two seasons.
Lockett has been one of the most reliable and underrated performers in the NFL at his position and a vital asset to Russell Wilson and now Smith for years. But it's possible he could get caught in a cap crunch if the Seahawks' rookie receivers (Smith-Njigba and the surprising Jake Bobo) continue to show they can play.