Let's break down what has gone right (and wrong) for the four NFL teams that have seen their 2023 postseason chances improve most dramatically. I'll be getting help from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), which projected each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs before the season and has done so again after each ensuing week.
Three of these four teams -- each of which is 5-2 -- are from the AFC, which shouldn't be a surprise, because the NFC has basically been chalk so far. Think about the preseason expectations there. The Cowboys and Eagles were going to be the class of the NFC East. The 49ers and Seahawks were the two best teams in the NFC West. The NFC South was going to be a chaotic mess, and the Lions were expected to leap past the Vikings after Minnesota's luck from a year ago in close games ran out.
Through seven games, that's basically what has happened. There are three teams within a half-game of one another in the South, and the teams most everyone expected to stand out in the NFC are doing so in reality. Before the season, the FPI projected the Eagles, Lions, Saints, 49ers, Cowboys, Seahawks and Falcons to be the seven playoff teams in the NFC. And after seven weeks, the FPI ... projects the same seven teams to make it to the postseason out of the NFC.
There have been more dramatic shifts in the AFC, which is why three of our four biggest risers reside there. With Aaron Rodgers out for the season, the Bengals off to a slow start, the Titans seemingly ready to give up and rebuild and the Chargers in a 12-round battle against themselves every week, the FPI has a different vision on that side of the playoff bracket. It starts with a team that finally appears set to win its first playoff game since 2000:
Subscribe: The Bill Barnwell Show
Jump to a team:
Dolphins | Jaguars
Lions | Ravens
Miami Dolphins
Preseason playoff chances: 52%
Current playoff chances: 93.8%
Difference: plus-41.8%
Even with the Dolphins struggling through a difficult loss to the Eagles on Sunday night, their 5-2 record atop the AFC East leaves them in prime position to claim their first division title since 2008. They still have a game in Germany against the Chiefs before their Week 10 bye, but their schedule clears out afterward. They get the Raiders, Jets, Commanders, Titans and Jets again over a five-week span, potentially with cornerback Jalen Ramsey back on the field. If they can win four of those five games and lock in nine wins, they'll be back in the playoffs.
Miami has exceeded expectations on offense this season, but part of the FPI's optimism about its postseason chances undoubtedly relates to what has happened in the AFC East. The Bills blew out the Dolphins in Week 4, but they've lost their best overall defender (Matt Milano) and best corner (Tre'Davious White) to season-ending injuries, while the Buffalo offense has averaged just under 20 points per game over the past three weeks. The Bills look vulnerable, and the Dolphins will like their chances in their Week 18 rematch.
The Jets are 3-3, but their ceiling is capped with Zach Wilson filling in for Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. And while the Patriots pulled an upset win over the Bills out of their hat last weekend, Mac Jones and New England have looked lost for most of their 2-5 start. What looked to be a division with as many as four great teams might have only one by the end of the season. The Dolphins have to hope they can have fewer injuries over the next three months.
While quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has stayed healthy, the team around him has been struggling to do so. The Dolphins were down three starting linemen for most of Sunday's loss, including star left tackle Terron Armstead, who has played just 78 snaps this season and is out indefinitely because of a knee injury. Ramsey, who was acquired via trade in March, is yet to play after tearing his left meniscus in camp, while fellow star corner Xavien Howard missed the Eagles loss because of a groin issue. Breakout rookie back De'Von Achane is also on injured reserve with a knee complaint, while third-year wideout Jaylen Waddle left the Eagles game because of a back injury before returning. Safety Jevon Holland entered the concussion protocol Monday.
As good as the Miami offense has been this season, we saw the impact of those injuries Sunday. The offensive line wasn't able to protect Tagovailoa, who was pressured on nearly 31% of his dropbacks. The running game never got going, as Raheem Mostert & Co. carried the ball 12 times for just 45 yards and the offense was rendered one-dimensional. Philadelphia wideout A.J. Brown had his latest big game, mostly at the expense of Kader Kohou, who was expected to play in the slot this season before moving outside once Ramsey went down. The second-year corner has been overwhelmed by star receivers in Miami's two losses.
The hopes that new coordinator Vic Fangio would unlock a top-10 defense after arriving have mostly been unfounded. The Dolphins rank 23rd in expected points added (EPA) per play. Fangio has been able to create pressure, as his defense ranks third in pressure rate and fourth in sack rate, but the problem has been what happens behind those pressures.
As an example, when the Ravens pressure opposing quarterbacks, they're allowing passers to post a 3.4 QBR, which is the league's best mark for a defense. When the Dolphins get pressure, opposing quarterbacks are still managing to post a QBR of 45.8, which is the fourth-worst mark. When the Ravens get pressure, they turn quarterbacks into civilians dropped into an NFL game with no warning. When the Dolphins get pressure, quarterbacks play like 2023 Russell Wilson. There's a big difference.
When Miami doesn't get pressure, it ranks 27th in QBR allowed. This secondary just hasn't been able to hold up without Ramsey. Pressure is great -- and it makes every defense play better -- but the Dolphins have to hope Ramsey returns and fixes what ails the defensive backfield. The good news is he is ahead of his rehab schedule and has a shot at returning before the Week 10 bye, which would get him on the field for the game against the Chiefs.
You don't need me to tell you that the offense has been good, with the 70-point outburst against the Broncos representing some of the most exhilarating game tape you'll ever see from a football team. The addition of what Kyle Shanahan called "cheat motion" to what already was the league's most active motion package has helped unsettle defenses and create more space for Tyreek Hill, who is on pace to blow away the single-season receiving record and finish with 2,190 receiving yards.
Two other improvements on what the Dolphins were doing on offense in 2022 have driven their leap forward. One is their performance in the red zone. They were good inside the 20 last season, ranking 10th in conversion rate. In a league in which offenses were converting just over 56% of their trips into touchdowns, the Dolphins were at 60%.
As Nate Tice noted earlier this month, offenses are struggling leaguewide in the red zone this season. Teams have converted just 53.5% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, the worst mark we've seen since 2011. It's even more meaningful, then, that Miami has converted a league-best 77.8% of its trips into touchdowns. The only other team above 68% is the Bills. I'm not sure the Dolphins can count on converting nearly 80% of their trips inside the red zone into scores over the remainder of the season, but it also seem like coach Mike McDaniel has a new concept producing a walk-in touchdown every week.
The other new addition is one that seems like it was there a year ago, but I can confirm that it wasn't: big plays on the ground. As explosive as the Dolphins were through the air in 2023, they had just one run of 30-plus yards, which tied them with the Bucs and Commanders for the fewest of any team.
As you might have noticed, that has been rectified in 2023. The Dolphins already have seven runs of 30-plus yards in seven games, giving them three more than any other team. Achane has four of those seven, producing the sort of stat line you see when the video game difficulty level is too low; he's averaging 12.1 yards per carry. No one can keep that up over a full season, but Achane already is one of the league's most explosive players and a threat to take any carry to the house. The Dolphins will welcome him back when he returns from injured reserve next month.
If the Dolphins can't keep up their red zone success or their big plays on the ground, we might see the offense slow down in the second half again. The hope will naturally be that an improved defense with Ramsey helps counter that decline. As it stands, even if they aren't quite as stunning on offense, they might be well positioned to take the AFC East simply by being the last team left standing.
Baltimore Ravens
Preseason playoff chances: 60%
Current playoff chances: 91.5%
Difference: plus-31.5%
I addressed the Ravens' defense at length Monday, when I ranked them as the league's third-best defense after their lopsided victory over the Lions in Week 7. They aren't going to sustain their incredible performance in the red zone over an entire season, but coordinator Mike Macdonald's defense has been impressive enough outside the 20-yard line to continue playing like one of the NFL's top units.
With that in mind, I'll focus more on the offensive side of the ball here. The Ravens delivered one of the best performances of the season Sunday, scoring touchdowns on their first four possessions of the game. By EPA per play, they had the fourth-best offensive performance of the season, trailing games by the Dolphins (against the Broncos), 49ers (beating the Cardinals) and Bills (a blowout victory over the Dolphins).
Much was made over Lamar Jackson's move into a new offense under former Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken. So far, it's hard to argue against the idea that replacing Greg Roman with Monken has been a massive success. Jackson is playing the best football we've seen from him since his MVP season in 2019, and he's better as a passer now than he was then.
Jackson is setting career-high marks in just about every passing rate statistic. This is his best season in completion percentage, completion percentage over expectation, yards per attempt, success rate, interception rate and off-target rate. He's also getting rid of the ball faster than ever before. The elite numbers for a quarterback start with 7 and 8, and the only other quarterback in the league who is completing more than 70% of his passes and averaging more than 8.0 yards per attempt besides Jackson is Tua Tagovailoa.
The Ravens are actually running the ball slightly more often on early downs in 2023 than they were last season, having dropped from 12th in neutral pass rate to 15th. They haven't morphed into the Chiefs, but the way they produce on offense has changed dramatically.
Jackson is thriving as an intermediate passer. On passes traveling 10 to 20 yards in the air, his 96.7 QBR is both a career high and the NFL's best mark. He's completing nearly 80% of those throws, averaging more than 14 yards per attempt, and has an off-target rate of just 5.1%, all of which lead the league. He's also completing nearly five of these passes per game after averaging 3.5 per game from 2019 to 2022. On Sunday, he went 7-for-7 on these passes for 151 yards, seven first downs and a touchdown.
While there's some overlap between these two categories, Jackson also has been unstoppable as a play-action thrower. He's averaging a career-high 10.0 yards per dropback with play-action so far, up from 7.7 yards per dropback from 2019 to 2022. He has yet to take a sack on play-action this season. The only quarterbacks with a better QBR incorporating a play fake are Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes.
Jackson has thrived on play-action despite some decline in Baltimore's rushing attack. The Ravens rank 11th in success rate when running the ball, down from fourth over the previous four seasons. In part, that's because they have taken Jackson out of the designed run game outside of the red zone. From 2019 to '22, he averaged 5.4 designed runs per game across the first 80 yards of the field. (Those numbers don't include scrambles.) He was very efficient on those runs; his 7.4 yards per carry over that stretch on designed runs was the best mark for any ball carrier.
This season, Jackson's averaging just over half as many designed runs per game outside of the red zone as he had in years past. He's still averaging more than 6.0 yards per carry on those runs, but the move to presumably help keep Jackson fresh and available through the entire season has some short-term impact on Baltimore's rushing effectiveness. Those runs are being handed to less efficient backs.
As we saw Sunday, Jackson is still a threat to run inside the red zone. He has 11 carries inside the 20-yard line this season after averaging just under 18 per season over the prior four campaigns. He has scored on five of those 11 carries, including a fourth-down conversion against the Lions. And he has scrambled a league-high 32 times, 10 more than any other quarterback. He's on pace to rack up 78 scrambles for 454 yards, both of which would be career highs.
The hope was Jackson would take a leap forward after the Ravens added playmakers to their offense. He has done so, but the only significant impact made by the new receivers has been from Zay Flowers. The rookie first-round pick and tight end Mark Andrews have been the focal point of the offense, sharing nearly 48% of Jackson's targets. Flowers has three drops in seven games, but his ability to get open against man coverage and create after the catch has been clear. He's averaging a healthy 2.2 yards per route run, which ranks 24th in the league. Andrews is just ahead of him in 23rd.
The other receivers? They're here, too, but they haven't been difference-makers. Odell Beckham Jr. has missed time, but the $15 million man has averaged 1.6 yards per route run, which is just behind the likes of Drew Ogletree and Evan Engram leaguewide. Rashod Bateman is running wind sprints down the field at 1.2 yards per route run. Nelson Agholor has been more efficient than either Beckham or Bateman and probably deserves to get more playing time, although history tells us he won't continue to catch 81% of his targets. Beckham and Bateman living up to expectations would be one way for this offense to grow even further.
Another would be to eliminate sloppy play. The Ravens have the league's ninth-highest drop rate. They've fumbled 13 times, a figure topped by only the Jaguars so far. The game against Detroit was unsurprisingly the Ravens' cleanest game of the season: The receivers dropped only one pass, and Baltimore fumbled only once, when Jackson fumbled an exchange and handed the ball to the Lions. If the Ravens can avoid mental mistakes, their offense has top-five potential over the rest of the season. And if the offense plays at or near that level, they would be the league's most complete team.
The Ravens don't have a huge lead in the AFC North, but there are fewer questions about them than there are about their competitors. The 4-2 Steelers have needed Mike Tomlin Magic to pull out several of their wins, including their 17-10 victory over the Ravens in Week 5. Kenny Pickett looked lost before a solid second half against the Rams last Sunday. The 4-2 Browns are facing an uncertain quarterback situation, while the 3-3 Bengals are two games back and down the tiebreaker to the Ravens in advance of games against the 49ers and Bills over the next two weeks.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have three of their next four games at home, and their lone road game is a trip to face the Cardinals this week. Coach John Harbaugh's team should be favored to win all four, and if the Ravens get to 9-2, they would be well positioned to compete for the top seed in the AFC. They'll want to bank wins now because they will face the Jaguars, 49ers, Dolphins and Steelers over the final month of the season. Jackson has been sidelined by injury in December each of the past two seasons. If he keeps this up and stays healthy, he could be playing for an MVP award and the top seed in the conference this winter.
Detroit Lions
Preseason playoff chances: 64.9%
Current playoff chances: 90.7%
Difference: plus-25.8%
The Lions, the lone NFC representative in this top four, are coming off a tough loss against the Ravens, but they have done enough to solidify their status as huge favorites in the NFC North. Coach Dan Campbell's team is two games ahead of the Vikings and even further ahead of the Packers and Bears, neither of whom look close to contending right now. The FPI gives the Lions a 74.8% chance of winning the North, making them the third-highest favorites of any team to win their respective division, behind the Chiefs and 49ers.
If I had been writing this column a week ago, it would have been easy to find places to effusively praise Detroit after its hot start. Now, one blowout later, that wouldn't ring quite as true. Of course, the Lions aren't as good as they seemed a week ago, and they're not as bad as they looked against Baltimore, either. Lamar Jackson & Co. didn't expose the Lions, but they did hit some weaknesses Detroit will need to clean up moving forward.
Let's start with the play-action game. Detroit allowed Jackson to go 11-of-15 with play fakes for 233 yards, the second-highest total for any quarterback in a single game using play-action this season. You could argue those numbers were inflated by an 80-yard catch-and-run by Gus Edwards on what might have been a broken play, but consider that the Lions also allowed the fourth-most passing yards in a single game with play-action in their loss to the Seahawks in Week 2.
Want to be confused? In the other five games the Lions have played this season, their pass defense has allowed a league-best 15.8 QBR against play-action attempts. In other words, they have been great against play-action except for two games, in which they were shredded for a 91.1 QBR. They're not going to allow 150-plus passing yards against play-action every week, but they have to hold up better when teams incorporate run fakes. They were lucky to avoid giving up a 92-yard touchdown against the Bucs, with a tipped pass instead producing a pick.
We're going to see teams try to manipulate and stretch Detroit's linebackers in the weeks to come. The key player is rookie Jack Campbell, who was a controversial pick when the team drafted him at No. 18 in April. Campbell has allowed a 138.5 passer rating in coverage so far.
The Lions have generally loathed to use Campbell on third downs, when he has taken 10% of his snaps, while fellow linebackers Alex Anzalone and Derrick Barnes are up above 19%. Sunday's game was the first time all season that Campbell played more than 61% of the defensive snaps, with the 23-year-old taking 54 of 60 snaps. The Lions didn't draft Campbell to sit him, but defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has to balance the desire to develop his first-round pick with the need to field the best possible defense. Teams are going to test Campbell even more.
When you think play-action, you think passes over the middle of the field. The bigger weakness for the Lions right now, though, is on the outside. They are allowing a 75.4 QBR on throws outside the numbers this season, which is the sixth-worst mark in football. Glenn almost always has his corners play off or bail in coverage and rarely has them try to jam or redirect at the line of scrimmage. That helps limit big plays but leaves space for curls and deep outs.
You can understand why Glenn has his defense playing that way. Detroit added three new cornerbacks this offseason, but two are already sidelined. Emmanuel Moseley played just two snaps before tearing his right ACL, while C.J. Gardner-Johnson tore his pectoral muscle and is out indefinitely. Rookie second-rounder Brian Branch has missed time, while Jerry Jacobs was out for the Ravens game. The only cornerback on the roster who has been healthy and starting all season is Cameron Sutton, who has lived up to expectations after joining the team from Pittsburgh this spring.
I still think Detroit could stand to add a second pass-rusher behind superstar Aidan Hutchinson. While the 2022 No. 2 overall pick has developed into an elite player and leads the league with 32 initial pressures, nobody else on the team has more than 12. Glenn blitzes at the fourth-lowest rate in the league, so the Lions need to be able to get pressure with four if they're going to bother opposing quarterbacks. James Houston should be able to return from his broken ankle later this season, but he's likely going to be used as a situational pass-rusher.
When I wrote on Monday about Baltimore's defensive performance, I covered how the Lions were rendered a one-dimensional team and taken out of their play-action game by virtue of falling behind so quickly. Most teams shouldn't be able to do that to them, so I'm not very concerned that their offense is suddenly about to be exposed as a problem.
The X factor for the Lions moving forward has to be what they get out of their recent first-round picks. Jahmyr Gibbs scored his first touchdown in garbage time against the Ravens after being forced into the lead back role by David Montgomery's rib injury, while Jameson Williams, whom they traded up for in last year's draft, scored his first of the season on a spectacular catch against the Buccaneers.
Of the two, Williams' ascension into a regular role as the team's No. 2 wideout behind Amon-Ra St. Brown might be more important. The various injuries and suspensions Williams has dealt with since entering the NFL have kept him from getting into any sort of rhythm or building some much-needed rapport with quarterback Jared Goff. Sunday was the first time he was targeted more than three times in a game, but five of his six targets came after halftime. Williams also failed to bring in any of those passes, and he has caught just five of his first 21 pro targets. That will improve, but the Lions traded up for him expecting him to be their lead wideout. If he's that guy in the second half of the year, watch out.
The good news for Detroit is its schedule is very friendly, as the FPI pegs it as the eighth-easiest schedule through the remainder of the season. Nine of the Lions' remaining 10 games are against teams with losing records, with the Week 17 matchup against the Cowboys as the exception. Getting blown out by the Ravens might have stung, but beating a bunch of bad teams should quickly push that loss into the past.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Preseason playoff chances: 61.9%
Current playoff chances: 85.8%
Difference: plus-23.9%
Like the Lions, the Jaguars already carved out a comfortable lead in their division. At 5-2, they are a game and a half ahead of the surprising Texans, although Houston holds an early tiebreaker after upsetting the reigning AFC South champs in September. The Colts are 3-4 and are down quarterback Anthony Richardson for the remainder of the season, while the team that expected to give Jacksonville its toughest competition appears to be calling it quits. The 2-4 Titans are going to be without Ryan Tannehill for a stretch of time (ankle) and just traded veteran safety Kevin Byard to the Eagles for Terrell Edmunds and a couple of late-round picks, which could hint at more moves in Nashville.
The Jags are only 5-2 after surviving a late comeback from the Saints and a drop in the end zone by tight end Foster Moreau on a catch that would have pushed the game to overtime. Two weeks before, they held the Bills to seven points through the first three quarters of the game in London before allowing 81- and 75-yard drives in the fourth quarter; it took two touchdowns from Trevor Lawrence and the offense to hold on to what would eventually be a 25-20 victory.
Jacksonville's defense in the final quarter has been a concern. It ranks fourth in the NFL in EPA per play on defense during the first three quarters of the game, but it has dropped to 26th during the final 15 minutes of contests. One possible reason? A decline in the sack rate. The Jags sack quarterbacks 4.9% of the time through the first three quarters of their games, but they have just two sacks on 98 dropbacks in the fourth quarter.
The decision to draft Travon Walker ahead of Aidan Hutchinson last year is looking more and more like a major misstep. Hutchinson has been a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, but while edge rusher Josh Allen has had a breakout season with seven sacks in seven games, he hasn't received much help. Walker has 2.5 sacks and six knockdowns in seven games. Walker also has whiffed on 13% of his tackle attempts. It's too early to give up on him -- he can still be a good player without matching the player taken immediately after him -- but the Jags would have the league's best one-two pass-rushing punch if they were getting Allen and the 2023 version of Hutchinson on the field together.
A huge positive for the Jaguars has been the improvements they've made addressing their biggest weakness from last season. The 2022 team had the worst defense in football in terms of QBR on throws to tight ends, with Travis Kelce famously picking their coverage apart in the AFC divisional round. This season, even with losing 2022 first-rounder Devin Lloyd to hand surgery for a couple of games, the Jags have the league's second-best QBR against tight ends. Linebacker Foyesade Oluokun, the team's big free agent addition, has continued to make his usual dozen tackles per game and has improved his passer rating in coverage by more than 16 points, with a pick-six against the Saints for good measure.
The most likely path to a great season for the Jags was supposed to be through a big season from the offense and Lawrence, who seemed to break through during the second half of 2023. We're not quite there yet. He is playing better than he did during an indifferent start to last season, but he's not playing as well as he did to close out that season, at least on a regular basis.
Subpar offensive line play hasn't helped. The Jaguars rank 29th in pass block win rate, ahead of only the Saints, Bengals and Patriots. Tackle has been a problem, as rookie first-round pick Anton Harrison has struggled for most of the season on the right side, while left tackle Cam Robinson was suspended for the first four games. Walker Little filled in there and was expected to move to guard after Robinson returned, but he suffered a knee injury early in the win over the Bills and has missed the ensuing two games. The Jags prevented Lawrence from being sacked in last Thursday's win, but the Saints also have one of the league's worst pass rushes, which makes that a little easier.
The preseason chatter about Calvin Ridley seemed to be with good reason after Week 1, when the former Falcons standout returned and caught eight passes for 101 yards and a touchdown. It hasn't quite been as smooth since. He had a 122-yard game in London, but his other five starts have produced 12 catches for 145 yards on 29 targets, for an average of 29 yards per game.
He had been banged up throughout that stretch, and Ted Nguyen has noted how coach Doug Pederson and the offensive staff have taken him and moved him into the X receiver spot in Jacksonville when he had been more successful as the Z wideout in Atlanta. That has meant more targets on the sideline as opposed to the middle of the field. In 2020 with the Falcons, about 37% of Ridley's targets were on passes between the numbers. This season, just eight of his 47 targets have shown up there, which amounts to just over 17%.
Getting Ridley more routes over the middle of the field might help on third down, where the Jags have often fallen apart. They rank 27th in third-down conversion rate, as an offense that ranks seventh in the NFL in EPA per play on first and second down drops to 31st on third and fourth down. Some of that is randomness that will regress toward the mean, but Lawrence doesn't have an option over the middle right now. He's averaging 4.1 yards per attempt on 29 third-down throws inside the numbers. Only Josh Allen has been less productive there.
The bright spot on the offense has been the play of running back Travis Etienne, but that's more a product of added volume than it is of superior performance. Last season, Etienne generated 234 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) across 220 rush attempts, per NFL Next Gen Stats. This season, he leads the league with 127 carries, but he has generated a total of only 5 RYOE. He posted one first down over expectation (FDOE) last season, but he already has five first downs below expectation this season.
It has been fun to watch Etienne score two touchdowns in each of his past three games -- and his receiving workload has increased after he was mysteriously a minor part of the passing game a year ago -- but the Jags might be better off taking some of the load off his rushing plate to avoid having him rack up 300 total carries. Rookie Tank Bigsby hasn't been inspiring so far, but Pederson could find a few touches per game for former Browns standout D'Ernest Johnson, who has just seven carries all season after he was signed in March.
In terms of making it to the playoffs, the Jags are in great shape. They have enough talent on both sides of the ball to win the South, and there are plenty of reasons to believe that a young team should get better as the season goes along, just as they did in 2022.
As for the hopes that they would compete with the Chiefs and the rest of the perennial Super Bowl contenders in the AFC? I'm more skeptical there than I was before the season. The Jags have really played only two complete games this season, and those were wins over the Falcons and Colts. The standouts on this team are good players, but they're all not at the level where they can single-handedly propel a side of the ball forward like the way Patrick Mahomes does in Kansas City or Hutchinson is doing for Detroit.
I'm willing to believe Walker and Ridley can grow into their expectations more consistently in the second half of the season, but I'm just a little less confident about those possibilities than I was before the season began.