How many NFL players would return a first-round pick via trade?
I started thinking about this question last week, when I wrote my annual column consisting of trades that make sense for all parties involved. When I got to a swap for Minnesota's Danielle Hunter, I went back through history and found that single-season rental deals don't typically land first-rounders, even for talented edge rushers in or near the prime of their careers. As a player who is about to be a free agent and has a no-tag clause for 2024, Hunter was the definition of this kind of acquisition.
If Hunter wouldn't net a first-rounder, though, who would? Who would be worth two first-round picks? Three? Five? Seven? Ten? The vast majority of great NFL players aren't ever getting traded, but what would be fair value if they did? And how many players are actually worth first-rounders? About 13,000 words later, I found my answer: 102. That's roughly 6% of the league.
Because these players aren't going to be traded, I had to get a little creative with my logic. I treated salary cap charges and dead money as transferable in the way it would be in an expansion draft as opposed to the actual cap rules that apply when players get traded. We're considering what player value would look like in a vacuum as opposed to their specific spot on their specific roster.
The question I asked about every player was this: If an average team with an average roster had a hole at a given position, would history suggest it would trade an average first-round pick to acquire that player right now? I didn't consider whether the trading team would want to move that player, simply what his value would typically look like if that team did decide to make the trade. I did my best to use comparable deals from the past to inform those values while applying some common sense within the context of the modern league.
What I found, unsurprisingly, is that players who are valued as first-round picks are the ones you would expect. They typically play premium positions such as quarterback, edge rusher, wide receiver and left tackle. They're younger than 30 and either still on their rookie deals or just beginning new extensions. They've established themselves as standouts at their positions and still have several peak seasons to go.
I also had to consider players who were taken high in the 2022 and 2023 drafts who haven't yet proved themselves as stars. Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is off to a slow start after being the No. 1 overall pick, but there's no question a quarterback-needy team would still offer a first-round pick to acquire him. As we get toward the bottom of Round 1 in those drafts, a majority of the league would be less likely to offer a first-round pick to acquire that player, so unproven players in the first 10 picks are more likely to still yield first-round values than players in the 25 to 32 range.
It's important to keep in mind that NFL trades aren't about talent. They're about leverage. You need talent to have leverage, but positional value, age and contracts matter a lot more in trades than pure talent alone. Think about the Jalen Ramsey swap from March, when the Rams were able to land from the Dolphins only a third-round pick and a backup tight end for a Hall of Fame-caliber cornerback in his late-20s. As players approach and pass the age of 30, their résumés need to be spotless to still land a first-round pick.
OK, enough preamble. I've gone team-by-team and detailed the players who fit into different tiers, ranging from the players who would land multiple first-rounders to the guys who would produce a single first-round pick via trade. I've also included some thoughts on notable players who missed the list for each team.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Multiple first-round picks: QB Josh Allen. Even with Allen struggling through stretches of the past two seasons with injuries and subpar decision-making, his ceiling and ability to make just about any throw would be an easy sell for quarterback-needy teams if he ever hit the market.
One first-round pick: WR Stefon Diggs. We're already off to a complicated start. The Bills sent a first-round pick to the Vikings to acquire Diggs in 2020, but that was for a 26-year-old receiver on a team-friendly contract. Diggs turns 30 next month and is about to start a four-year, $96 million extension. I still believe teams would trade a first-round pick for him, but this isn't as obvious a deal as it would have been over the past several seasons.
Missing out: A broken leg and injured knee keeps LB Matt Milano off this list. He is one of the league's two or three best off-ball linebackers and is on a team-friendly deal, but he is now coming off a serious injury and will be 30 when he returns. CB Tre'Davious White's torn Achilles also limits his market, while a middling 2022 season from OT Dion Dawkins would probably limit his return to a second-rounder. I could see a case for DE Greg Rousseau (eight sacks in 2022) if he breaks out over the remainder of the season.
