How many NFL players would return a first-round pick via trade?
I started thinking about this question last week, when I wrote my annual column consisting of trades that make sense for all parties involved. When I got to a swap for Minnesota's Danielle Hunter, I went back through history and found that single-season rental deals don't typically land first-rounders, even for talented edge rushers in or near the prime of their careers. As a player who is about to be a free agent and has a no-tag clause for 2024, Hunter was the definition of this kind of acquisition.
If Hunter wouldn't net a first-rounder, though, who would? Who would be worth two first-round picks? Three? Five? Seven? Ten? The vast majority of great NFL players aren't ever getting traded, but what would be fair value if they did? And how many players are actually worth first-rounders? About 13,000 words later, I found my answer: 102. That's roughly 6% of the league.
Because these players aren't going to be traded, I had to get a little creative with my logic. I treated salary cap charges and dead money as transferable in the way it would be in an expansion draft as opposed to the actual cap rules that apply when players get traded. We're considering what player value would look like in a vacuum as opposed to their specific spot on their specific roster.
The question I asked about every player was this: If an average team with an average roster had a hole at a given position, would history suggest it would trade an average first-round pick to acquire that player right now? I didn't consider whether the trading team would want to move that player, simply what his value would typically look like if that team did decide to make the trade. I did my best to use comparable deals from the past to inform those values while applying some common sense within the context of the modern league.
What I found, unsurprisingly, is that players who are valued as first-round picks are the ones you would expect. They typically play premium positions such as quarterback, edge rusher, wide receiver and left tackle. They're younger than 30 and either still on their rookie deals or just beginning new extensions. They've established themselves as standouts at their positions and still have several peak seasons to go.
I also had to consider players who were taken high in the 2022 and 2023 drafts who haven't yet proved themselves as stars. Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is off to a slow start after being the No. 1 overall pick, but there's no question a quarterback-needy team would still offer a first-round pick to acquire him. As we get toward the bottom of Round 1 in those drafts, a majority of the league would be less likely to offer a first-round pick to acquire that player, so unproven players in the first 10 picks are more likely to still yield first-round values than players in the 25 to 32 range.
It's important to keep in mind that NFL trades aren't about talent. They're about leverage. You need talent to have leverage, but positional value, age and contracts matter a lot more in trades than pure talent alone. Think about the Jalen Ramsey swap from March, when the Rams were able to land from the Dolphins only a third-round pick and a backup tight end for a Hall of Fame-caliber cornerback in his late-20s. As players approach and pass the age of 30, their résumés need to be spotless to still land a first-round pick.
OK, enough preamble. I've gone team-by-team and detailed the players who fit into different tiers, ranging from the players who would land multiple first-rounders to the guys who would produce a single first-round pick via trade. I've also included some thoughts on notable players who missed the list for each team.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Multiple first-round picks: QB Josh Allen. Even with Allen struggling through stretches of the past two seasons with injuries and subpar decision-making, his ceiling and ability to make just about any throw would be an easy sell for quarterback-needy teams if he ever hit the market.
One first-round pick: WR Stefon Diggs. We're already off to a complicated start. The Bills sent a first-round pick to the Vikings to acquire Diggs in 2020, but that was for a 26-year-old receiver on a team-friendly contract. Diggs turns 30 next month and is about to start a four-year, $96 million extension. I still believe teams would trade a first-round pick for him, but this isn't as obvious a deal as it would have been over the past several seasons.
Missing out: A broken leg and injured knee keeps LB Matt Milano off this list. He is one of the league's two or three best off-ball linebackers and is on a team-friendly deal, but he is now coming off a serious injury and will be 30 when he returns. CB Tre'Davious White's torn Achilles also limits his market, while a middling 2022 season from OT Dion Dawkins would probably limit his return to a second-rounder. I could see a case for DE Greg Rousseau (eight sacks in 2022) if he breaks out over the remainder of the season.
Miami Dolphins
One first-round pick and change: QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle. A 25-year-old quarterback with Tagovailoa's production since the start of last season would typically be in the untouchable class and return multiple first-round picks, but there would undoubtedly be teams hesitant to deal for him because of his significant injury history. He would push into the two first-round-pick range if he stays healthy and productive over the remainder of the campaign.
The wide receivers are here for different reasons. With Hill, it's defense-breaking speed and elite production. The Chiefs got a first-round pick and four other selections when they traded Hill to the Dolphins in March 2022. Hill is now 19 months older, but he set career highs last season and is on pace for an NFL-record 2,306-yard season. If anything, his value has gone up from where it was before the last deal (though the Chiefs won a Super Bowl without him).
Waddle hasn't been quite as productive, but he's coming off of a 1,356-yard season and won't turn 25 until next month. He's younger and has a more significant résumé than A.J. Brown had when the Eagles sent a first-round pick to acquire him from the Titans in April 2022. Waddle doesn't quite have the best-at-his-position production (Khalil Mack, Jalen Ramsey) that typically comes with a return of two first-rounders, but a pick from Rounds 1 and 2 would be a fair ask for the Dolphins.
One first-round pick: OLB Jaelan Phillips, DL Christian Wilkins. Teams crave young edge rushers, and Phillips is coming off a seven-sack, 25-knockdown campaign as a 23-year-old. He has All-Pro-caliber upside, although injuries and a slow start have limited him to a half-sack in three games this season.
Wilkins' role on both the Josh Boyer defense and now as a gap-and-a-half defender up front for Vic Fangio's defense will never yield huge numbers, but he's right up there with the Giants' Dexter Lawrence as one of the most difficult-to-control interior defenders in football. He's likely to net the defensive tackle franchise tag from the Dolphins after the season in advance of a new deal, either with Miami or another organization.
Missing out: I suspect there would be a team or two interested in handing over a first-round pick for rookie RB De'Von Achane, who was averaging a ridiculous 12.1 yards per carry before suffering a knee injury and hitting injured reserve. Achane's size is always going to be a concern, and he's obviously benefiting from playing in a Mike McDaniel offense, but it's clear that his speed is going to play at this level.
The Dolphins sent a first-round pick to the Broncos for OLB Bradley Chubb last November, but the 2018 No. 5 overall pick has only 4.5 sacks in 14 games with Miami and got a big contract this offseason. His past injury history would also be a concern. OT Terron Armstead is 32 and has annual injury issues. We just saw what the veteran market looks like for cornerbacks when Jalen Ramsey was dealt for a third-round pick in March, which would limit the return for Xavien Howard. S Jevon Holland likely would fetch a more significant return, but he would be more in the second-round range.
New England Patriots
One first-round pick: CB Christian Gonzalez. The rookie No. 17 overall pick looked like an absolute superstar and was my Defensive Rookie of the Year pick before going down with a torn labrum in his shoulder in Week 4. Gonzalez is still only 21 years old, which would appeal to teams that typically want players with less wear and tear on their bodies. There are organizations that are reticent to go after players who were coached by Bill Belichick, however, thinking that they'll get less out of defenders than the legendary Patriots leader. The J.C. Jackson fiasco in Los Angeles might be the most obvious example there.
Missing out: It's scary that the Patriots really have only one candidate who comes close to netting a first-rounder, and it's the guy they just drafted in Round 1. Patriots fans might be willing to move on from QB Mac Jones for any pick after his last month. Belichick has a couple more young standouts on defense in DT Christian Barmore and S Kyle Dugger, but neither plays a position teams typically value with first-round trades. OLB Matthew Judon is 31 and now out indefinitely with a torn biceps.
New York Jets
Two first-round picks: CB Sauce Gardner. You could make a case that Gardner has been the NFL's best cornerback since entering the league last season, which is heady stuff given the traditional track record of corners in Year 1. Even Darrelle Revis wasn't a star until Year 2. Nine other defenders since 1980 have been first-team All-Pros as rookies. The worst player from that bunch might be pass-rusher Jevon Kearse, which should tell you how good the other eight guys are.
One first-round pick and change: WR Garrett Wilson. It might be easier to see Wilson at the higher tier if he had better quarterback play. As it stands, he has averaged roughly five catches and 62 yards per game over his career with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White and others under center. Those are very good numbers given the quarterback play, but not the sort of dominance that nets two first-rounders.
One first-round pick: DT Quinnen Williams. Williams is a superstar defensive tackle and a lot to deal with as both a run-defender and a pass-rusher, but he's a 26-year-old who just signed a (much-deserved) massive extension. We saw a similar situation hit the market in 2020, when the Colts traded the No. 12 overall pick to the 49ers to land DeForest Buckner while giving him a significant contract in the process. That's about where Williams would fall.
Missing out: The Jets were expecting to send more than a first-round pick to the Packers in exchange for QB Aaron Rodgers, but after the 39-year-old tore his Achilles, they will send only a pair of second-rounders. Rodgers wouldn't have a first-round market after the injury. RB Breece Hall has looked wildly impressive at his best, but he was a second-round pick last year, and that was before tearing his ACL.
The 15th pick is right around the cutoff point where I wonder if most teams have a first-round grade on a player, and given that DE Will McDonald has been buried on the depth chart this season, I don't believe he would net a first-rounder from most teams.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
One first-round pick and change: QB Lamar Jackson. You saw what happened with Jackson's market this offseason. Would teams have been more open to sending two first-round picks for him if they knew that would have gotten a deal done? Maybe. As it stands, though, no team even leaked that it was seriously interested in pursuing him in a deal with Baltimore. With Jackson on a significant new contract after re-signing, my guess is he would land something more than a first-round pick but short of two first-rounders.
One first-round pick: WR Zay Flowers, CB Marlon Humphrey, S Kyle Hamilton. It has been only six pro games for Flowers, but it's clear his ability to separate and work after the catch will play at this level. He has been able to command a significant target share from Week 1, which in itself is valuable information about his ability. He's on pace for nearly 100 catches and 1,040 yards. His stock is up from where he stood on draft day, when the Ravens took him at No. 22.
Humphrey is 27 and plays a premium position at a high level, but injuries cost him meaningful time in 2021 and have limited him to 82 snaps this season. A healthy Humphrey would command more than a first-round pick, but foot injuries can be concerning for players who rely so heavily on their speed and agility.
Hamilton was up and down during an uneven rookie season, but the 2022 first-rounder has been a playmaker all over the field this season. He might max out as a very good box safety with excellent instincts, but the Seahawks sent two first-round picks to acquire a more toolsy version of that archetype in Jamal Adams in 2020. Hamilton would return one for the Ravens.
Missing out: LB Roquan Smith has been a superstar since arriving in Baltimore, but there are teams that simply don't have the appetite for paying an off-ball linebacker $20 million per year, even if he's great. I suspect there might be more teams willing to consider that sort of deal for DT Justin Madubuike, who appears to be in the middle of a breakout season as an interior disruptor for Mike Macdonald's defense.
Injuries would sap the markets for S Marcus Williams and OT Ronnie Stanley, the latter of whom would have been one of the most valuable players in football before injuring his ankle in 2020. I also think injuries would slow the market for TE Mark Andrews, who was one of the last cuts out of the first-round grades. As good as he was in 2021, he has missed some time in nearly every season and has one year with more than 900 receiving yards. At 28, I'm not sure teams would want to invest a first-rounder given the post-30 attrition rates for tight ends.
Cincinnati Bengals
Multiple first-round picks: QB Joe Burrow. I don't think this one requires much explanation.
Two first-round picks: WR Ja'Marr Chase. Chase fits all the criteria for landing two first-rounders as a non-quarterback. He's young, has a credible case as the best player in football at his position and plays a premium spot in the lineup. He also has four more years of cost control remaining, with $8.3 million due between 2023 and 2024 before the possibility of two franchise tags in 2025 and 2026. He has a strong case alongside Dallas' Micah Parsons and Minnesota's Justin Jefferson as the most valuable non-quarterback in the sport.
One first-round pick: WR Tee Higgins. Higgins is capable of taking over games, but it's tougher to make a case that he's a top-10 player at wide receiver than it is for someone like A.J. Brown. Higgins' production is capped by Chase playing on the other side of the field, but it also likely leads to easier coverage looks and fewer double-teams. He is also a free agent after the season, so he's about to get expensive. I still think he would land a first-rounder, but there's a much bigger gap between Higgins and Chase's trade value than it might seem.
Missing out: The Bengals are built around a deep roster as opposed to building something top-heavy, which makes for a better football team than it does for trade value. DE Trey Hendrickson is an extremely productive pass-rusher when healthy, but at $16 million or so per year over the next three seasons, he's not a bargain.
I've been impressed by 2022 first-rounder Dax Hill, who has looked great as a deep safety after taking over for Jessie Bates. As a late first-round pick who didn't play much as a rookie, though, it's tough to believe he would still net a first-rounder from most of the NFL.
Cleveland Browns
Two first-round picks: DE Myles Garrett. Garrett is the best player on the best defense in football right now. He has been remarkably consistent since entering the league, as a right high-ankle sprain in 2017 is likely the only thing that has kept him from racking up double-digit sacks in each of his first six seasons. Players in their late-20s who get paid $25 million per season typically don't have significant trade value, but Garrett's production and position make him an outlier.
Missing out: Would the Browns accept a seventh-round pick if another team was willing to take QB Deshaun Watson's contract off their hands? That could be an article in its own right, but it's clear the Watson deal is seriously underwater and that the 28-year-old quarterback has no trade value at the moment, even without considering his mysterious shoulder injury. RB Nick Chubb's value was also tanked by the knee injury he suffered in September.
None of the other defenders for coordinator Jim Schwartz quite make the first-rounder level. CB Denzel Ward is expensive and struggled through an inconsistent 2022 campaign, although the 26-year-old looks back on track this season. CB Martin Emerson Jr. has been an immediate standout after being drafted in the third round a year ago and will be a bargain through the end of 2024, but some teams might need more playmaking ability from a cornerback if they're going to give up a first-round pick. S Grant Delpit has been a revelation this season, but safeties have to be superstars to land a first-rounder in return.
Pittsburgh Steelers
One first-round pick and change: OLB T.J. Watt, S Minkah Fitzpatrick. Watt is the early favorite for Defensive Player of the Year and is on pace for 27 sacks, which would shatter the single-season record without even needing to be concerned about asterisks for extra games. You can't knock the player, but he's also 29 years old and in the middle of a deal that pays him $28 million per season. He's a full year older than Myles Garrett, which is why the Browns star would net two first-round picks, and Watt would come in as something closer to a one and a two.
Fitzpatrick doesn't play as valuable of a position as his Steelers teammate, but he's more than two full years younger and can take over games more than just about any other safety in the league. Takeaways can come and go -- and he doesn't have one this season -- but he has averaged more than five combined interceptions and forced fumbles across his four full seasons in Pittsburgh.
One first-round pick: WR George Pickens. Pickens is one of several Day 2 and Day 3 picks in the 2022 draft who would move up into the first round (or command a first-round pick in trade) on what we've seen so far. No regular wideout has been thrown less-catchable passes since the start of 2022 than Pickens, but he's still managed to bring in just under 60% of his targets over that time frame. Like Garrett Wilson, he has been saddled with subpar quarterback play and curious coordinator choices. Pickens might be A.J. Brown or DK Metcalf if the situation around him was better.
Missing out: No, there's no room for QB Kenny Pickett on this list. He has flashed at times -- and he's not getting much help from offensive coordinator Matt Canada -- but he has now played 18 NFL games with ugly results. Among 35 qualifying passers since the start of last season, Pickett ranks 27th in completion percentage, 33rd in yards per attempt and 31st in first-down rate. It's too early to give up on him, but I don't know whether any team that was skeptical of him before the 2022 draft has been convinced by what they've seen from him.
OT Broderick Jones, the No. 14 pick in April's draft, has been a part-time player so far. No. 32 overall pick CB Joey Porter Jr. has made a handful of big plays while serving as the team's fourth cornerback. I could see a case for OLB Alex Highsmith after a 14-sack campaign a year ago, but the 26-year-old has been much less productive when Watt has been on the field.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
Two first-round picks: QB C.J. Stroud. Is it too early to put Stroud in this category? There wasn't massive interest in trading up for the No. 2 overall pick in April when teams could have chosen Stroud, but he's off to a wildly impressive start. He ranks 14th in QBR over a stretch where most of his best linemen, including star left tackle Laremy Tunsil, haven't been available for some or all of the season. He has been winning games with Tank Dell and Nico Collins as his top receivers, which has put the Ohio State narrative to rest before Halloween of his first season.
One first-round pick and change: OLB Will Anderson. I'm not sure Anderson will end up being worth the massive amount of draft capital the Texans sent the Cardinals to acquire him with the No. 3 overall pick, but he has looked like a difference-maker on a snap-by-snap basis, despite having only one sack through eight games. He has eight knockdowns and has created 18 initial pressures so far, which is tied for the eighth-most of any player. The sacks will come.
One first-round pick: CB Derek Stingley, OT Laremy Tunsil. Stingley is always going to be compared to Sauce Gardner, who was taken one pick after him in the 2022 draft. Given how good Gardner was a rookie, Stingley feels like a disappointing pick after a difficult, injury-hit rookie season. He also has missed the past four games with a hamstring issue. Teams likely would see a top-three pick at cornerback and be willing to deal a first-rounder, but he will need to show signs of growth once he returns to the lineup.
The trade that sent Tunsil to the Texans included two first-round picks and a second-rounder, but he's now four years older and on a market-setting contract. He's still a useful player at an essential position, but he has played one full season in eight years as a pro, which adds up over time. It was a different situation and a deal for an older player, but remember that the 49ers landed Trent Williams for third- and fifth-round picks in 2020. Tunsil's trade value would fall between the Williams swap and what he netted the Dolphins in 2019.
Missing out: The only other player who might be worth a conversation is 2022 second-round S Jalen Pitre, who was impressive during his rookie season while intercepting five passes, but I'm not sure teams would deal a first-round pick for a safety before they established themselves as a superstar. The Minkah Fitzpatrick deal from 2019 might argue otherwise, given that the future star was struggling as a slot corner when the Steelers sent a first-round pick to land him from the Dolphins.
Indianapolis Colts
One first-round pick and change: QB Anthony Richardson. His season sadly appears to be over before it really began because of an injury to his throwing shoulder, but there was enough in his brief spell under center to excite Colts fans. He made an immediate impact as a runner and was good enough as a passer to sustain a solid offense from Day 1. I don't think anyone doubts Richardson possesses massive upside because of his physical ability, but we saw that he can even be a functional quarterback while he's figuring things out at the pro level.
Missing out: G Quenton Nelson was originally a player I thought would return a first-round pick, but as I thought more about his situation, I wasn't able to get there. He's now one of the league's highest-paid guards, playing a position that some teams simply don't value at that level, thinking they can coax solid play out of cheaper options with the right offensive line coach. He's also coming off a disappointing season, although he has looked better in 2023. Hall of Fame-caliber interior linemen typically stay in one place for the vast majority of their careers, making it difficult to gauge their trade value, but I don't think Nelson would land a one.
LB Shaquille Leonard is in a similar boat. Off-ball linebackers on top-of-the-market contracts don't typically have significant trade value, and he has dealt with concussions and back surgery over the past few seasons. I'm hoping we see the Leonard who sparkled before 2022 with the Colts again this season, but I don't believe teams would be willing to pay a first-round pick for the privilege of finding out.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Multiple first-round picks: QB Trevor Lawrence. We haven't yet seen the sort of MVP-caliber breakout Lawrence was hinting at with his play in the second half of the 2022 season, but we're still talking about a consensus No. 1 overall pick who carried a mediocre roster to the playoffs a year ago. He isn't even eligible for a contract extension until next year, and that cost-controlled runway will help keep his price down for the next few seasons. There's no reason to overthink this one.
One first-round pick and change: OLB Josh Allen. This is a reaction to what we've seen so far this season. He wouldn't have returned a first-rounder if we had gone through this exercise before the season, but he's off to a blinding start. Through six games, he has seven sacks, 11 knockdowns and two forced fumbles. His pressures helped force interceptions against the Bills and Chiefs. Even with Allen about to hit free agency, he's having the sort of season that would merit something close to the sort of haul the Chiefs sent the Seahawks for Frank Clark in 2019.
One first-round pick: OLB Travon Walker, CB Tyson Campbell. It doesn't look like the Jaguars made the right decision when they took Walker over Aidan Hutchinson, who has been a Defensive Player of the Year candidate for the Lions this season. It's too early to give up on Walker's upside, though, and he wasn't about to fall out of the top 10 if the Jaguars had passed on him last season. He'd still net a first-round pick.
Campbell was one of the league's best young cornerbacks a season ago, although he has been slowed by a hamstring injury and will likely miss this week's game against the Saints. As a third-year corner who won't turn 24 until next March, he still has a lot of good football ahead of him. He's somewhere in the five-to-six range among top cornerbacks still on their rookie deals.
Missing out: Recent first-round picks LB Devin Lloyd and OT Anton Harrison were taken in the back half of the opening round and have struggled so far. The Jaguars landed WR Calvin Ridley last season for a scaling conditional pick that could end up as high as a second-round selection in 2024. He has looked great for stretches this season, but he's a free agent after the season and turns 29 in December, so I don't think he would land much more than a second-rounder in a new deal.
Tennessee Titans
One first-round pick and change: DT Jeffery Simmons. The recent recipient of a well-deserved contract extension, Simmons ranks among the best interior disruptors in all of football. He hasn't had that sort of Aaron Donald-esque season that would land him on the national radar, but he's unblockable for stretches of play and a key component in Tennessee's elite run defense, which ranks No. 1 in defensive success rate since the start of the 2022 season.
One first-round pick: OL Peter Skoronski. The No. 11 overall pick in April's draft was sidelined for three games after undergoing an appendectomy in September. The Titans intended to play him at guard as a rookie, but with Andre Dillard struggling badly before being benched last week, the former college left tackle might end up at that spot sooner rather than later. Either way, Skoronski still has a first-round grade.
Missing out: OLB Harold Landry might have been on pace to emerge as that sort of player after a breakout 2021 campaign, but he missed all of 2022 with a torn ACL and has only two sacks and three knockdowns in six games this season. He might be the only other player on this roster who comes close, as veterans including RB Derrick Henry and S Kevin Byard are closer to being cut candidates than guys who would net first-rounders via trade.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Two first-round picks: CB Pat Surtain. I almost want to see Surtain traded as a cruel experiment. The Denver defense has been historically awful this season even with Surtain, who has been a Pro Bowl-caliber corner since entering the league in 2021. How bad could Denver look without its best player?
Surtain is right in line with Khalil Mack and Jalen Ramsey, who were traded for two first-round picks toward the end of their rookie deals. He would be the only realistic source of additional draft capital for the Broncos if they do want to go after one of the young quarterbacks in the 2024 draft, but it would also cost a defense that has looked horrific, its only young star.
Missing out: It's a little scary that Surtain is the only player who would land a first-round pick on this roster, and I'm not sure many others even come close. WR Jerry Jeudy managed to average 2.3 yards per route run last season, which ranked 13th in the NFL among wideouts, but he has struggled to stay healthy and hasn't been a consistent performer. And while S Justin Simmons is a reliable playmaker on the back end of the defense whose absence against the Dolphins was felt as sorely as any player I can imagine, teams aren't trading first-round picks for a safety who turns 30 next month, even one as talented as Simmons.
Kansas City Chiefs
Multiple first-round picks: QB Patrick Mahomes. I don't know -- six? Seven? Ten? I'm not sure there's a realistic number of first-round picks the Chiefs would be willing to take for Mahomes, especially given that his presence on another roster would all but ensure that those picks came in toward the bottom half of the first round.
One first-round pick: DT Chris Jones, CB Trent McDuffie. I wavered back and forth on Jones. There may not be a more impactful interior defender in the league, and all the old chatter about Jones taking off plays or lacking consistency has faded as he has won Super Bowls. He is also 29 and only under contract through the end of this season. When the Rams traded for Von Miller in 2021, they sent second- and third-round picks to the Broncos for the future Hall of Famer and got 12 games from him, including the playoffs. That also required Denver to pay down the remainder of his deal, though. I'm not sure any half-season pass-rusher would earn a team a first-round pick, but Jones would be the guy if there was one.
McDuffie, a 2022 first-round pick, has taken a step forward this season and looks like he's going to be a very good defender. He's establishing a physicality at corner you don't typically see from inexperienced players, and he has forced three fumbles this season, which leads the league. He's allowing 6.5 yards per target in 2023, which ranks ninth among corners who have started all six games, and he already has five pressures as a pass-rusher. He's one of the biggest reasons why the Chiefs have been so impressive on defense.
Missing out: I didn't think the Chiefs would have just three players with first-round grades, but they have loads who come up just short. Let's start with TE Travis Kelce. On one hand, Kelce is 34 years old, battling lower-leg injuries and playing a position in which nobody has ever been this productive this late into their career. Every team in the league would want to add him, but the acquiring franchise would have to treat him as year to year, and there's something to be said for his chemistry with Mahomes as an improviser. He's also Travis Kelce, and maybe a team would break the rules for a guy who will likely go down as the best player at his position in NFL history.
So many of Kansas City's younger players are either on the tail end of their rookie deals and/or play positions that aren't typically valued as first-rounders via trade. C Creed Humphrey, G Trey Smith, LB Nick Bolton, LB Willie Gay and S Bryan Cook are valuable contributors, but would any of them land a first-rounder if the Chiefs decided to move on? Humphrey might have the strongest case, but teams don't really trade that sort of capital for interior linemen, even ones as talented as him
Their starters at premium positions either haven't done enough to land that sort of return (DE George Karlaftis and WR Kadarius Toney come to mind) or are about to hit free agency (wildly underrated CB L'Jarius Sneed.) If this were a commentary on players who could net a team second-round picks, the Chiefs might lead the league. With first-rounders, though, I was surprised to only be able to get to three.
Las Vegas Raiders
One first-round pick and change: DE Maxx Crosby. The 26-year-old continues to build on his gains and get better season after season. He's tied with Micah Parsons and Aidan Hutchinson for the league lead with 26 initial pressures and continues to be a one-man wrecking crew up front. The only thing keeping him from landing two first-round picks would be his contract, although the four-year, $94 million extension he's starting this year is reasonable. He could be in the two first-round pick tier by the end of 2023.
One first-round pick: OT Kolton Miller. There's nothing exciting about being a good left tackle on a solid contract, but he would be an upgrade for the majority of teams on what they have protecting their quarterback's blind side. Miller just turned 28, but he has missed a grand total of two games across his six-year career. Reliability is an ability!
Missing out: WR Davante Adams netted a first- and second-round pick for the Packers when the Raiders acquired him before the 2022 season. That trade hasn't worked out, but it isn't Adams' fault. Given that he turns 31 in December and is on a market-resetting contract, I don't think we would see him land a first-round pick via trade. A second-rounder would seem more likely.
There aren't many other strong candidates on this roster. RB Josh Jacobs, who is averaging 2.9 yards per carry, is about to hit free agency, while 2023 first-rounder DE Tyree Wilson has a scarcely-believable 3.8% pass rush win rate on the edge through six games. If TE Michael Mayer has more games like the one we saw from him on Sunday against the Patriots, he'll rise up the rankings, but this isn't a Vegas roster with a lot of young talent.
Los Angeles Chargers
Multiple first-round picks: QB Justin Herbert. He is coming off a disastrous start against the Cowboys on Monday night, one in which he ended the game with an interception and missed Keenan Allen for what should have been a pair of long completions off double-moves. While he can be frustrating, Herbert's ability to make spectacular throws would appeal to any team in need of a signal-caller.
One first-round pick and change: OLB Joey Bosa, OT Rashawn Slater. Bosa is right on the line between this tier and the one below. Teams still covet edge rushers, and Bosa is still a difference-maker when he's healthy, but that's happening less often. He has made it through one full season in what is now his eighth pro campaign, and he's missed 17 games over the past three seasons with various issues. That number doesn't include 2023: He has missed a game with hamstring and toe injuries and hasn't played more than 50% of the defensive snaps since Week 1. His talent isn't in question, but availability is a prerequisite for a player making $27 million per season.
You only need to remember the Laremy Tunsil trade to see how much a desperate team would pay for an elite left tackle on a rookie deal. Slater missed most of 2022 with a biceps injury, but while he has three holding calls through six games this season, he is one of the league's three best left tackles on a rookie deal.
One first-round pick: S Derwin James. His injury history will also scare teams, although he has missed only six games since returning from knee surgery in 2020. James' penchant for penalties is also a concern, as he leads all safeties with 10 infractions over the past two seasons, including four personal fouls in four games this season. Safeties with his range and versatility are also nearly impossible to come by, so even with those concerns and a significant salary, he would have a good trade market.
Missing out: Los Angeles' other young first-round picks on offense don't make it in. G Zion Johnson has been solid, but solid guards don't land first-rounders, while WR Quentin Johnston has barely been able to draw any targets, even after the season-ending injury suffered by Mike Williams.
There might be an argument for OL Jamaree Salyer, who impressed as a fill-in left tackle for Slater as a rookie before moving to guard, while WR Keenan Allen and RB Austin Ekeler are past the point in their respective careers in which teams are willing to parcel out first-rounders. I'd watch out for OLB Tuli Tuipulotu, who looks like he's going to be a miserable player to block for the next decade.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Multiple first-round picks: OLB Micah Parsons. The cap for the vast majority of non-quarterbacks in a trade would be two first-round picks, as we saw with the Khalil Mack and Jalen Ramsey deals. Parsons' production on a rookie deal at a premium position makes him the exception to that rule. He has made first-team All-Pro in each of his first two seasons, and it would be a shock if he wasn't there again at the end of Year 3. Even after this season, the 24-year-old will have up to four years of cost control remaining on his deal.
There are limits, I suppose. If Dak Prescott decided to retire tomorrow, would the Cowboys trade Parsons for Trevor Lawrence? The Jaguars probably wouldn't take that trade. The Bengals wouldn't trade Joe Burrow, nor the Chargers with Justin Herbert. As incredible as Parsons has been, he still comes in as having less trade value than the best young quarterbacks in the sport. I don't think the Bengals would deal Burrow for three first-round picks, but the Cowboys would probably have to give that offer serious thought if Parsons was heading out the door.
One first-round pick and change: WR CeeDee Lamb, QB Dak Prescott. Lamb is coming off a 1,359-yard season and is on pace for 1,346 yards in 2023. I'm not sure he's the sort of plug-and-play superstar we typically associate with deals involving two first-round picks, but he's close. It helps that he doesn't turn 25 until next April.
This is too long of an article to have a lengthy debate about Prescott. The short story: He's a 30-year-old quarterback who consistently produces above-average numbers but is also about to get paid a lot more money on a new deal. That sort of certainty might not appeal to a team that wants to take a shot on a quarterback with more upside on a rookie deal, but there are a lot of teams that wish they had a quarterback as good as Prescott.
One first-round pick: G Zack Martin, G Tyler Smith. Not many teams have two guards who would net first-round picks, but the Cowboys are unique. Martin turns 33 in November, but he's still the NFL's best guard and is competing to become the best guard in modern league history over the next few years. It's almost impossible for a player in his mid-30s playing interior lineman to be as valuable as Martin is to the Cowboys.
Smith is an entirely different player, as the 2022 first-rounder proved he could play left tackle when he filled in for Tyron Smith during his rookie season. Tyler Smith moved back to left guard this season, but he's a very good guard now and likely will become Dallas' left tackle of the future once the team moves on from its longtime blindside protector.
Missing out: The Cowboys would have had a sixth player with a first-round grade if CB Trevon Diggs hadn't torn an ACL in practice earlier this season. He would make it back if he returns to his prior level of play after recovering from the injury. DT Mazi Smith, the No. 26 overall pick in April's draft, might also be in the mix as he gets more playing time, while third-year DT Osa Odighizuwa is rapidly becoming a standout in Dallas' rotation and ranks second among tackles in pass rush win rate this season.
New York Giants
One first-round pick and change: OT Andrew Thomas. The best draft pick of the Dave Gettleman era, Thomas has grown even more valuable as the Giants have failed to protect their quarterbacks in his absence. Thomas, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2020 draft, gets more help than most left tackles when he's on the field, but he is still a valuable young player at a premium position.
One first-round pick: OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux, CB Deonte Banks. Thibodeaux already has matched his 2022 season-long total with four sacks through the first six games. His 13 initial pressures tie the second-year defender with Josh Sweat, Javon Hargrave and Trey Hendrickson, although it helps that the Giants have faced the fourth-most passes of any team so far. Thibodeaux is on pace to finish with 11 sacks and 37 knockdowns; if he gets there, he'll be up with Thomas as a more valuable player for New York.
Just about nothing has gone right for coach Brian Daboll & Co. this season, but the early returns on Banks are promising. He has played about 80% of the defensive snaps and allowed an 84.1 passer rating in coverage, which is 10 points below the rating the team allowed. The first-round pick has had hiccups, but by the standards of rookie cornerbacks, he's off to a solid start.
Missing out: The other various top-10 picks don't come close here. QB Daniel Jones' contract is already underwater, RB Saquon Barkley is a free agent after the season, and OT Evan Neal has been a replacement-level right tackle. Neal might not go in the first two rounds if teams could re-draft the 2022 class right now.
DTs Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams are very good against the run, but they're also on mammoth contracts and don't have the consistent pass-rushing success that usually comes along with defensive linemen who are dealt for first-round picks. S Xavier McKinney is solid and is asked to do a lot in Don Martindale's blitz-happy system, but it seems telling that the Giants aren't desperate to extend the pending free agent.
Philadelphia Eagles
Multiple first-round picks: QB Jalen Hurts. When a quarterback makes two of the biggest single-season leaps in recent memory and does it in back-to-back seasons, he's a special player. Hurts is coming off arguably his worst performance since taking over as Philadelphia's full-time starter in last week's loss to the Jets, but he has still been an extremely valuable player in 2023 and was the league's second-best signal-caller a year ago.
One first-round pick and change: WR A.J. Brown, WR DeVonta Smith, OT Jordan Mailata, DT Jalen Carter. This is a pretty exciting core of young talent. Brown cost the Eagles first- and third-round picks when they acquired him from the Titans during the 2022 draft, and it would be hard to argue against the idea he's worth more now. He's on pace for a 1,904-yard season. Smith is lagging, but I don't think anybody would be surprised if he had a 150-yard game in any given week.
Mailata's development from rugby league player in Australia into superstar left tackle in two and a half years is one of the more incredible stories in recent league history and a tentpole argument in O-line coach Jeff Stoutland's case for the Hall of Fame. Mailata's four-year, $64 million extension is a bargain considering how much more lesser players are making at tackle. He might be the most valuable player besides Hurts on this roster.
Carter already has established himself as a worthy successor to Javon Hargrave and a Pro Bowl-caliber interior defender. He leads all tackles in pass rush win rate, and the Eagles felt his absence when Carter was sidelined for Sunday's loss to the Jets by an ankle injury. The rookie No. 9 overall pick already looks like a steal.
One first-round pick: DE Josh Sweat, DT Jordan Davis. Here are two more impact players in Philadelphia's pass rush. Sweat has continued to improve each season and has become one of the best edge rushers over the past two-plus seasons. His 18.5 sacks created since the start of 2021 rank 18th among edge rushers over that time frame, and he would have even more if the Eagles weren't so aggressive about rotating their linemen to keep them fresh for the postseason.
Davis hasn't quite turned into the Vita Vea-sized defender Eagles fans were expecting when they moved up for him in the draft a year ago, but we're seeing him take over snaps more often this year. Philadelphia's success rate against rushing attacks with Davis on the field has jumped by 2% from a season ago, while backs have dropped from 3.8 yards per carry to 3.5 yards per rush against Davis-led fronts year over year. He's not single-handedly driving that change, but he still appears to be growing into his role as a force on early downs.
Missing out: It's scary that we could go another five or six players deep here. OT Lane Johnson is one of the more difficult players to gauge with this exercise. Most teams aren't going to trade a first-round pick for a 33-year-old player with a lengthy injury history on a significant contract, but he's also the NFL's best right tackle when he's close to 100%. If he were a few years younger, it would be an easy call to put Johnson on this list, but it's tough to imagine him playing deep into his 30s, given all the wear and tear on his body.
Likewise, while C Jason Kelce has aged gracefully and continues to play at a high level, the market for 35-year-old centers who have flirted with retirement on an annual basis doesn't include first-round picks, no matter how talented they are on (and off) the field. CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry are also on the wrong side of 30, which doesn't typically yield much trade value for cornerbacks; consider that there wasn't really a strong market for Slay when the Eagles allowed him to seek a trade this spring before signing him to a new deal.
Would OLB Haason Reddick net a first-round pick, given his production over the past few seasons? I could certainly see the argument, as he racked up 16 sacks and a league-high five forced fumbles last season. He has been consistently productive since moving to the edge on a full-time basis in 2020, but he's also 29 and will be a free agent in 2025.
Washington Commanders
One first-round pick: WR Terry McLaurin, DT Jonathan Allen. If McLaurin could only land a quarterback! He has been slowed by a toe injury this season, but posting three consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns with Taylor Heinicke, Dwayne Haskins and a 36-year-old Alex Smith as his primary quarterbacks should tell us just how impressive he has been.
The best of Washington's four first-round picks up front, Allen has posted solid sack numbers for an interior pass-rusher with great underlying metrics, including a 30-knockdown season in 2021 and a whopping 16 tackles for loss last season. The other linemen in this bunch have each had louder seasons, but Allen has been the most consistently effective of the four first-rounders over the past few years.
Missing out: The other three linemen come up short. DT Daron Payne was a trade candidate before a breakout 2022 campaign and doesn't have a significant track record of producing at that level, while DE Montez Sweat has settled in as a solid-if-unspectacular edge rusher and is about to hit unrestricted free agency.
DE Chase Young is back playing an every-down role and looking the best we've seen since his 2020 rookie campaign. His 20 initial pressures rank sixth in the NFL this season, placing him one ahead of Myles Garrett. If Young keeps this up for a full season, he'll be in a position to land the franchise tag from the Commanders, and I wouldn't be surprised if teams offer a first-round pick to try to get the former No. 2 overall pick out of Washington.
Things aren't going quite as well for Washington's recent first-rounders. LB Jamin Davis hasn't grown into an every-down linebacker, although he did come up with a game-sealing interception against Atlanta last week. WR Jahan Dotson is averaging 8.2 yards per reception and a scarcely believable 0.7 yards per route run in what was supposed to be a breakout season, while CB Emmanuel Forbes was benched and didn't play a single defensive snap against the Falcons.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
One first-round pick: WR DJ Moore, OT Darnell Wright. The Bears might end up cherishing the Panthers' 2024 first-round pick as the most valuable part of their offseason trade with Carolina if it lands them top-ranked quarterback Caleb Williams, but the other two key components are looking pretty good, too. Moore followed a slow start with 131- and 230-yard games in back-to-back offensive outbursts for the Bears, and he continues to look like a No. 1 receiver without a No. 1 quarterback.
Wright has been the every-down right tackle for Chicago from Week 1, and while the line hasn't exactly covered itself in glory this season, the interior has been a more consistent problem. Wright already looks like a valuable run-blocker, and the hope is that better pass-blocking will come with more reps.
Missing out: I don't have QB Justin Fields returning a first-rounder after a wildly erratic first six weeks of the season. He looked unplayable through the first three games but on point over the next two, and then he struggled before getting injured in Sunday's loss to the Vikings. There would be plenty of teams interested in taking a shot at developing Fields, given his upside, but I would be surprised if Chicago was in the position to draft Williams and landed a first-round pick for Fields in a trade this offseason unless he looks like the guy from the Broncos and Commanders games over the rest of the season.
Detroit Lions
Two first-round picks: DE Aidan Hutchinson, OT Penei Sewell. The two building blocks of the Dan Campbell era are off to spectacular starts in 2023. Hutchinson has made the leap into a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, as he's wrecking protections shaded toward him on a weekly basis. His numbers might be even more impressive if he had a legitimate No. 2 option on the other side of the field, something that might come into play when James Houston returns from a broken ankle.
Sewell is the successor to Lane Johnson as the NFL's best right tackle; frankly, he might already be there. Right tackles can be perceived as less valuable relative to their brethren on the left side, but Sewell was an excellent left tackle at Oregon and looked like a natural there when he filled in for an injured Taylor Decker in 2021. Having just turned 23 earlier this month, he's still one of the league's youngest starting tackles. He's a superstar.
One first-round pick: QB Jared Goff, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, C Frank Ragnow. Goff was the last player I had on the list worth a first-round pick. Maybe I'm too clouded by what happened at the end in Los Angeles when the Rams had to pay a premium to dump Goff's contract onto the Lions as part of the Matthew Stafford deal. He ranks fifth in QBR over his past 17 games, but he's also due a significant raise on a new deal next offseason, which could nearly double his compensation from just under $26 million per season. A first-round pick seems fair.
Injuries have limited Gibbs to 121 offensive snaps this season -- and the Lions don't appear as interested in making him a unique target as they did when they talked him up after April's draft -- but there were enough teams interested in him as a first-round pick to keep him at this level.
St. Brown, a fourth-round pick in 2021, isn't a mega-talented wideout, which might discourage some teams from seeing him as a plug-and-play WR1 in their offenses. All he has done since entering the lineup is get open and catch the football, though. At some point, the production becomes self-evident.
Centers rarely get traded, so it's difficult to judge what their value might look like in a significant deal. If any center would be worth a first-round pick, though, Ragnow's case is strong: He's a 27-year-old with two Pro Bowl nods who consistently draws praise for being one of the top two-way centers in the game. He has helped the Lions survive injuries and inconsistent play at guard from Halapoulivaati Vaitai when healthy over the past few seasons. The only blemish on Ragnow's résumé might be injuries, including a nagging case of turf toe that cost him most of the 2021 season and continues to linger into 2023.
Missing out: I could be talked into pushing up OT Taylor Decker, who's one of the 10 best left tackles in the NFL, even if he hasn't managed to make it to a Pro Bowl in his career. He's also 30 and about to enter the final year of his contract, so I'm not sure he would return the sort of package the Ravens got for Orlando Brown Jr. in 2021 or the Bills landed for Jason Peters when he was shipped out for three picks, including a first-rounder, in 2009.
It's tough for second-round picks to immediately justify first-round grades through six weeks of their rookie seasons, but you could make that case for both S Brian Branch and TE Sam LaPorta. Branch has been making plays all over the field and looked like a star safety before suffering an ankle injury, while LaPorta ranks second among all tight ends in receiving yards through six games. If they both keep this up over the remainder of the season, Detroit's two second-rounders will be more exciting prospects than general manager Brad Holmes' two selections in Round 1 (Gibbs and LB Jack Campbell).
Green Bay Packers
One first-round pick: WR Christian Watson, EDGE Rashan Gary, CB Jaire Alexander. Watson has missed most of the season while battling a hamstring injury, but he averaged 2.4 yards per route run as a rookie and will make $4.2 million combined across the 2023, 2024 and 2025 seasons. Even if he lands as a low-end No. 1 or high-end No. 2 wideout, he's an incredibly valuable player given the price of wide receiver contracts on the open market.
Gary is still battling back from a torn ACL, but he was in the middle of a career season before his injury in 2022 and already has 4.5 sacks and seven knockdowns on just 107 snaps this season. He's playing out his fifth-year option and hasn't been extended as a result of the injury, but he might be one of the 10 best pass-rushers and should see his role expand as the year goes along.
Injuries are the only concern with Alexander, who missed most of 2021 because of a shoulder injury and has sat out two games this season because of a back issue. When he's right, few corners are as capable as him, although Alexander typically doesn't travel with the opposing team's wideout and stays on one side of the field.
Missing out: One of the last cuts from the list of players with first-round grades was OL Elgton Jenkins, who has been a dominant guard for stretches and even looked good at left tackle for the Packers in previous years. He is now in the middle of a market-value extension at guard, though, and injuries have cost him time in each of the past three seasons, including two and a half of Green Bay's five games in 2023.
OLB Lukas Van Ness, the No. 13 overall pick in April's draft, profiled as an exciting hybrid player, but he has been anonymous so far and has a pass rush win rate below 4%. Former first-rounder LB Quay Walker has to prove he can avoid unnecessary penalties after helping to knock the Packers out of the postseason picture last season, while DT Devonte Wyatt needs to turn his flashes into more consistent disruption up front.
Minnesota Vikings
Two first-round picks and change: WR Justin Jefferson. I would put Jefferson ever so slightly ahead of his former college teammate Ja'Marr Chase. Jefferson is nine months older, but he has been more productive while playing with a much less impressive quarterback. I don't think Jefferson would land three first-round picks in a trade, but the Vikings likely would be able to nab two first-rounders and a midround pick or a starting-caliber veteran if they decided to rebuild from the ground up and trade him. (I do not endorse this plan.) The recent hamstring injury hurts Jefferson's short-term value, but it doesn't appreciably change his long-term path toward Canton.
One first-round pick: WR Jordan Addison, OT Christian Darrisaw, OT Brian O'Neill. Addison is not Jefferson, but he has lived up to expectations since being drafted No. 23 overall in April's draft. He hasn't been a consistent week-to-week producer, but he's averaging nearly 13 yards per reception and leads all rookie receivers with four touchdown catches. He'll have room to develop into a more regular role while Jefferson is on injured reserve.
The O-line is often a point of contention for Vikings fans, but tackle is not the problem. The only thing holding back Darrisaw from more recognition as a Pro Bowl-caliber tackle has been injuries, as the 2021 first-rounder has missed nine games over his first two-plus seasons in the league. O'Neill's ceiling isn't quite as high -- and the 28-year-old has already earned a significant extension -- but he has missed just three games over his first six-plus NFL seasons. He leads all tackles in pass block win rate this season, just ahead of division rival Penei Sewell through six games.
Missing out: Wide receiver and tackle are set! Everywhere else is a problem. QB Kirk Cousins would be a pure half-season trade and wouldn't justify a first-round pick. I wrote about DE Danielle Hunter last week and why I don't think the star edge rusher would land a first-round pick; as talented and productive as he has been, he turns 29 later this month, is in the final year of his deal and has a no-franchise-tag clause for 2024. There's a decent chance any team acquiring Hunter would lose him for nothing in free agency next offseason, and a first-round pick is just too much for a half-season of play, even for a player as talented as Hunter.
The only other player who would draw meaningful consideration is TE T.J. Hockenson, who was dealt to the Vikings for a second-round pick last year. His numbers have gone up since the trade, but that has almost entirely been a product of running more routes on a team that has thrown more passes than any other team besides the Buccaneers since the start of 2022. I don't believe he would command more in a trade if the Vikings dealt him today, especially now that he's playing on a new contract.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
One first-round pick and change: CB A.J. Terrell. He struggled a bit last season and is playing on the fourth year of his rookie deal, so he's not quite as valuable as Sauce Gardner or Pat Surtain, who are younger and further from free agency. Terrell was one of the league's best cornerbacks in 2021, though, and has spent most of his career playing on bad defenses with no pass rush. He would be a revelation playing for a team like the Eagles.
One first-round pick: RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London. The rookie Robinson has been as advertised so far, as he ranks among the league leaders in rush yards over expectation. There are a number of teams that simply wouldn't be willing to use a first-round pick on a running back because of the opportunity cost in making that sort of deal, but Robinson is still going to deliver surplus value over the next four seasons if he plays this way.
London's week-to-week role in the offense can be frustrating, but we're still talking about a 2022 top-10 pick who grades out as efficient on a route-by-route basis. He has averaged 2.1 yards per route run since entering the league, which is just below Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Williams. The problem is that Chase has run nearly 41 routes per game since the start of 2022, while London is averaging just over 25. It might take an A.J. Brown-style trade to a team that is going to throw the ball and put London on the field more often to unlock the sort of numbers people are hoping to see from the second-year pro, but the talent's there.
Missing out: I've wavered about TE Kyle Pitts, who had one of the most impressive rookie seasons we've ever seen from a tight end, but who also doesn't look 100% after returning from knee surgery. There are teams that want their tight end to be a difference-maker in the red zone, too, and Pitts has only four scores across 33 games. He likely would be back alongside London if he looks healthy over the second half of the campaign.
G Chris Lindstrom is one of the best guards in football, but he's also the league's highest-paid interior lineman, which would cap his trade value. OT Jake Matthews and DT Grady Jarrett are very good veterans, but they're on the wrong side of 30. Guys over 30 need to be bona-fide superstars (or quarterbacks) to land a first-round pick.
Carolina Panthers
Two first-round picks: OLB Brian Burns. Well, we know the Panthers wouldn't take two first-round picks and more from the Rams for Burns a year ago, as ESPN's Adam Schefter reported. Now, a year later, those same first-rounders likely would get a deal done. Burns is a year closer to free agency, and the Panthers have struggled to sign him to a new contract, in part because they implicitly valued him as a player worth more than two first-round picks by turning down the offer from L.A. With Carolina desperate for draft capital after making the Bryce Young trade, a Burns swap could get them valuable playmakers to put around their young quarterback. If they asked the Rams for wideout Puka Nacua, would Los Angeles be willing to include him in the deal?
One first-round pick and change: QB Bryce Young. Acknowledging that Young hasn't looked good to start his NFL career and that there were teams that were loathe to consider him because of his 5-foot-10 frame, he was a valuable enough prospect this spring for the Panthers to send two first-round picks and DJ Moore to the Bears to move up and acquire him with the No. 1 overall selection. That might go down as a terrible deal if the Bears land top 2024 quarterback Caleb Williams with Carolina's pick, but even given Young's struggles, he would still be a really valuable trade option in a hypothetical scenario given where he stood before the season began.
One first-round pick: CB Jaycee Horn. He would be up closer to the two first-round pick range if he could stay healthy, but he has missed most of 2021 with a fractured foot, was knocked out of the playoff race in 2022 with a broken wrist and hit injured reserve after 20 snaps in 2023 with a hamstring injury. He's a star cornerback in the making when healthy, and he's about to become eligible for an extension after the season, but it's going to be difficult to pay the 23-year-old if he has played only about 25 NFL games.
Missing out: OT Taylor Moton is as steady as they come, as the seven-year pro has never missed an NFL game. Brian O'Neill is just a little bit better than his Panthers right tackle counterpart -- and Moton is both a year older and closer to a new contract -- but teams pay a premium for a proven track record of staying on the field. He was one of the last cuts out of that first-round tier.
OT Ikem Ekwonu was inconsistent as a rookie and has taken a step backward in Year 2; he ranks second in the NFL behind Jawaan Taylor with eight penalties, most of which are false starts and illegal man downfield violations. The physical tools that attracted the Panthers to take him at No. 6 overall in the 2022 draft are still there, but it doesn't feel as if he's much closer to becoming a good NFL left tackle than he was when he entered the league. We've seen more signs of life from 2020 first-round pick DT Derrick Brown this season, but I would need to see more consistency from him before he bounced up into the first-round tier.
New Orleans Saints
One first-round pick and change: WR Chris Olave. He has picked up where he left off a year ago. Olave averaged 4.8 catches and 69.5 yards per game last season, and he's averaging 5.3 catches and 69.0 yards per game through six weeks this season. He's every bit as good as college teammate Garrett Wilson, which is why they're both in the same trade tier.
One first-round pick: CB Marshon Lattimore. The best player left standing from the legendary New Orleans draft class of 2017, Lattimore is still only 27 and continues to play at a high level after missing half of 2022 with a lacerated kidney. He has allowed a 64.1 passer rating in coverage this season, although the Saints don't usually have him travel with receivers and typically keep him on the right side of the defense.
Missing out: While OT Ryan Ramczyk was part of that same draft class, he's more than two years older than Lattimore, turning 30 next April. He has slipped a bit from his peak, although he's still an above-average starting lineman. OT Trevor Penning, a first-round pick in 2022, barely played as a rookie and was benched last week before utility lineman James Hurst suffered an injury. C Erik McCoy probably has the strongest case of any New Orleans lineman to be considered in the tier with Lattimore.
CB Alontae Taylor and LB Pete Werner are two young defenders on rookie deals with a viable chance of growing into Pro Bowlers over the next couple of seasons. The Saints used the pick they got for Sean Payton to land DT Bryan Bresee at No. 31 overall in April's draft, but Bresee has played only 172 snaps in six games. Otherwise, with the league's oldest roster, New Orleans doesn't have the sort of young talent that would land premium picks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Two first-round picks: OT Tristan Wirfs. The one thing Wirfs could have done to up his value after excelling on the right side over the last few years was move to left tackle. After the Bucs cut Donovan Smith last offseason, Wirfs has slid in on the blind side and looked like a plus left tackle from Day 1. He ranks 12th in pass block win rate and doesn't have a single sack attributed in his direction all season. Wirfs is every bit as good as Laremy Tunsil was when the Texans made the Godfather offer to acquire him from the Dolphins in 2019. He's comfortably the most valuable player on this roster.
One first-round pick: DL Calijah Kancey. The Bucs have seen their 2023 first-rounder for only 51 snaps this season, but he looks like he's going to be a problem for opposing offenses. He picked up his first sack against the Lions on Sunday, but his most notable snap of the game came when the Pittsburgh product shed Penei Sewell at the line of scrimmage to make a play in the backfield. There's the potential for a really fun, disruptive player here.
Missing out: The Bucs don't have any other players worth a first-round pick in my estimation, but there are plenty of guys who might net second-round picks. There's DT Vita Vea, who gets paid extremely well in a role that typically does not yield first-round draft capital in trades. LB Devin White and CB Antoine Winfield Jr. are talented young players who are about to get contract extensions at positions that are relatively low on the value spectrum for other teams.
CBs Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean are well-paid defensive backs in the prime of their careers. WR Chris Godwin is still only 27 and should be fully recovered from his torn ACL from 2021, although his numbers haven't quite yet recovered. All of those guys would deliver meaningful returns, but not a first-rounder.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
One first-round pick and change: OT Paris Johnson Jr. The No. 6 overall pick in April's draft was coveted by teams for his physical traits as a possible left tackle of the future. With D.J. Humphries on the roster, the Cardinals have started Johnson on the right side, where he is already off to a solid start for a surprisingly frisky team.
One first-round pick: QB Kyler Murray. I'm just not sure about Murray. If healthy, he would have no trouble commanding a first-round pick, but we're talking about a quarterback on a five-year, $230 million extension with guarantees clearing a year in advance until 2026 who is reliant on his physical tools to extend plays and is coming off a torn ACL. There were teams that simply didn't think Murray was a franchise quarterback coming out of college in 2019, and others that would be reticent to make the leap now because of his injury. We're also talking about a 26-year-old who singlehandedly won games for the Cardinals over the past two seasons. A lot rides on what happens when Murray returns from his injury.
Missing out: The Cardinals are rebuilding and don't have a lot of super-talented young players. I could see WR Marquise Brown landing a second-round pick or S Budda Baker generating a midround selection, but this is not a team that has many young difference-makers.
Los Angeles Rams
One first-round pick and change: DT Aaron Donald, WR Puka Nacua. Donald is a Hall of Famer and one of the best defensive players of his generation, so if there's anyone who would break the rules for players in their 30s and land two first-round picks in a deal, it would be him. At the same time, his contract is head and shoulders above other defensive tackles, he's coming off of his first season with a serious (ankle) injury and has flirted with retirement as recently as last year.
Nacua is a fascinating case and the only Day 3 rookie I'm comfortable moving into the first-round tier. The fifth-round pick clearly wasn't seen as a top talent by teams, and he's moving into a lesser role with Cooper Kupp taking back over as the WR1. He also racked up more receiving yards than any player in NFL history through their first four games. That has to count for something, right?
What seals it for me is the contract value. Nacua is in Year 1 of a four-year, $4.1 million deal. Even if he ends up settling in as a solid WR2 in a good offense, players like that are landing about $14 million per season, and that's only going to keep rising. He could be worth more than $50 million in surplus value over the next four years, and that's more than a team can expect for most first-round picks. And if Nacua really is a WR1, well ...
One first-round pick: QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp. Stafford is 35 and has a laundry list of injuries over the past few years, but he has looked like a top-12 quarterback this season. This is probably the last season in which the Rams could realistically net a first-round pick for him, but he would be a massive upgrade for several teams that have playoff aspirations.
Kupp turned 30 in June, has a big contract and has been dealing with an increasing number of ankle and hamstring injuries, but his production when healthy over the past three seasons has been astronomical. He has come back from a hamstring injury and casually posted 118- and 148-yard games in his first two starts, looking exactly like the guy who torched the league in 2021.
Missing out: With the Rams playing so many inexperienced players, it's still too early to gauge whether their recent draftees are going to develop into players who would be worth first-round picks via trade. Outside of Nacua, the most exciting player from their 2023 draft class is OLB Byron Young, who has three sacks and 11 knockdowns through six games.
San Francisco 49ers
Two first-round picks and change: DE Nick Bosa. Outside of the torn ACL that cost him most of the 2020 season, Bosa's résumé is spotless. He has a Defensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year award in his trophy case before turning 26, has averaged a whopping 13.5 sacks per 17 games and is widely regarded as an excellent two-way defender. Don't let Bosa's slow start of 2.5 sacks fool you; he already has 16 knockdowns, which would typically deliver about seven sacks. The numbers will come.
One first-round pick and change: LB Fred Warner, RB Christian McCaffrey. Warner is a highly paid player at a position that doesn't typically deliver huge returns; remember that the Ravens got Roquan Smith for a second-round pick last year. Warner's coverage ability, though, is 1 of 1. There's no other linebacker on the planet who can run stride for stride up the seam with CeeDee Lamb and force an incompletion. The 2018 third-round pick is one of the few players who truly transcends his positional value.
You could say the same thing about McCaffrey, who has reached new levels since joining the 49ers on a much smaller trade package last year. The capital the 49ers sent eventually added up to something like a first-round pick, but he has to be worth more after dominating the league in a San Francisco uniform. Injuries are still the big concern -- he's battling an oblique issue now -- but he is a true playmaker for Kyle Shanahan's offense
One first-round pick: WR Brandon Aiyuk, S Talanoa Hufanga, QB Brock Purdy. Aiyuk has come into his own this season. He's averaging just under 4.0 yards per route run, and while that absurd efficiency won't stick, his numbers would look nuclear if he was in an offense that asked him to run more routes. He has missed a game with a shoulder injury, but he has run 114 routes to A.J. Brown's 210 this season. If Aiyuk produced this way all season and ran 35 routes per game, he would finish the season with a line of 130 catches for 2,370 yards. He won't get there, but if the 49ers decided to trade him, they would get Brown-sized offers for their wideout.
Hufanga revealed himself to be a defensive playmaker and hit-stick artist in his debut season as a starter a year ago, when he was named as a first-team All-Pro. I'm not sure he is one of the two best safeties in football, but you can't argue with the 23-year-old's production since entering the lineup.
Purdy could be an entire article in his own right, and nobody needs that now (if you've made it this far). Even if you want to ignore his performance and suggest he has been a below-average starting quarterback, we just saw a player like that (Daniel Jones) get north of $40 million per season over the next few years. Purdy is going to make less than $3 million over the next three years combined. Maybe he's not the best quarterback in football like QBR suggests, but if he's a solid starter, that's the league's biggest bargain between now and 2025.
Missing out: Lots of stars don't fall too far from the first-round tier here. OT Trent Williams is the best player at his position, but he's 35, on a massive contract and hasn't played a full season since 2013. TE George Kittle might also be the best player at his position when considering his blocking ability, but he has his own injury concerns and just turned 30. The track record of tight ends after 30 isn't great, but there likely are a few teams that would see Kittle as a unique value and offer up a first-rounder.
I might be too conservative about WR Deebo Samuel, who is the best yards-after-catch receiver in football and might have the most unique skill set in the league. He's making nearly $24 million per year, though, and his 2021 season looks like a career outlier. I don't know that teams can count on getting the guy who had three 75-plus yard catches and eight rushing touchdowns again, but it would certainly be fun to try.
There's more! DT Javon Hargrave is one of the NFL's best interior disruptors, although he's on a market-value deal after signing with the Niners in free agency. LB Dre Greenlaw gets lost in Warner's shadow at times, but he's one of the rangiest cover linebackers in the league and will make just $16.4 million over the next two seasons before hitting free agency. And CB Charvarius Ward has allowed a 64.3 passer rating in coverage this season while not missing a single tackle over his two seasons in San Francisco. At the risk of naming half the roster, it's time to move on.
Seattle Seahawks
One first-round pick and change: CB Devon Witherspoon, OT Charles Cross. Island games don't count for more than typical Sunday performances, but Witherspoon's performance on the national stage against the Giants earlier this month was one of the most impressive games you'll see a rookie cornerback play. It's been fun to watch Pete Carroll tinker and try to find the best place to use Witherspoon, but the good news for the Seahawks is there doesn't really seem to be a bad solution.
Cross has been sidelined and then slowed by a sprained toe, but the No. 9 overall pick in last year's draft did enough as a rookie to entrench himself as a franchise building block. There aren't many above-average left tackles on rookie deals going around, and the ones who do hit the trade market inspire outlandish trade prices. Cross wouldn't go for the Tunsil deal, but he would go for more than a first-rounder.
One first-round pick: WR DK Metcalf, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CB Riq Woolen. Metcalf has gotten his long-term deal, but he's still only 25 and is unguardable when he's on his game. Still, 2020 is looming more and more like a career season, given that he had 1,303 yards and hasn't topped 1,050 yards before or after. He has plenty of time to prove that the pandemic year wasn't an outlier, though. Smith-Njigba hasn't done much through five games, but I don't see any reason to devalue him when he was widely seen as the best wideout in April's class.
Woolen might have a case to be even higher, given that he was a Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback last season and will make just under $3 million over the next three seasons combined. He has allowed a 117.7 passer rating in coverage this season, so the 2022 fifth-round pick might still be recovering to get back to 100% after undergoing a knee scope in May, but he could make this trade value look foolish by returning to his rookie form by the end of 2023.
Missing out: We're only a few years removed from these very Seahawks trading two first-round picks to acquire S Jamal Adams, and while I'm not sure that deal has aged well given Adams' injuries, I don't recall many fans being too upset about the trade when he was playing at a Pro Bowl level in 2020. He turned 28 on Tuesday, so he could still have some good football ahead if he stays healthy.