When new data becomes available, it's best to update predictions. Even the bold ones.
A mere four weeks ago, I made a bold prediction for every team entering the 2023 NFL season as part of our team previews. Back in those halcyon days of early September, the Cincinnati Bengals were Super Bowl contenders, Aaron Rodgers was healthy and we were all gearing up for the Kenny Pickett Year 2 breakout that was definitely happening. We've learned a lot since then.
So let's update our predictions! Based on what we now know, I gave myself three choices for each bold prediction:
Stick to what I had
Pivot to a related prediction, perhaps with a less lofty target
Switch to an entirely new prediction, generally because my initial choice is already completely wrong
I ended up with 10 brand-new predictions. We'll group these in three tiers -- sticking, pivoting and switching -- and teams are in alphabetical order within each tier:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Predictions on which I'm sticking
Chicago Bears
Original prediction: QB Justin Fields posts a double-digit sack rate, again.
Why I'm sticking: Fields has an 11% sack rate through four weeks. Left tackle Braxton Jones is on injured reserve, but this is simply going to be a problem for Fields no matter who is in front of him. His average time to throw is 3.07 seconds, third longest among all quarterbacks. I thought this would be the factor that sunk Chicago's season, but it turns out there are plenty of other reasons this season has gone so poorly.
Dallas Cowboys
Original prediction: OLB Micah Parsons breaks the single-season sack record.
Why I'm sticking: He has four sacks, and his pass rush win rate (PRWR) is higher than ever (36%) despite being double-teamed as an edge player more than ever (29%, second most in the NFL). And we're talking about a player who has never not finished first in pass rush win rate. Fortunately, I predicted Parsons would break the single-season sack record of 22.5 and didn't specify he also had to be the 2023 sack leader, because there's a chance multiple players break the record this season.
Denver Broncos
Original prediction: QB Russell Wilson finishes in the top 16 in QBR.
Why I'm sticking: Wilson has been solid, putting up a 51.3 QBR while throwing for 1,014 yards, nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. That has gone under the radar because the Broncos' defense has been such a mess, however. He ranks 18th in QBR and would rank 13th if we removed the opponent adjustment. He has a strong shot to finish in the top 16.
Detroit Lions
Original prediction: WR Jameson Williams finishes the season as a top-20 fantasy WR in points per game played after he returns from his suspension.
Why I'm sticking: Nothing has changed since Williams was suspended, but he'll have longer to fulfill this prediction now that he can return in Week 5 under the NFL's new betting policy. If he pans out, he'll offer Detroit a critical downfield threat to pair nicely with Amon-Ra St. Brown, who excels on shorter passes. Williams can make an already dangerous Lions offense that much more potent.
Houston Texans
Original prediction: DE Will Anderson Jr. ranks top 10 in pass rush win rate at edge.
Why I'm sticking: He ranks third in PRWR among all edge rushers. Assuming health, this one is going to hit. Heck, let's go further, shall we? I'll say Anderson hits double-digit sacks, too. He has only one through four games. Between Anderson, quarterback C.J. Stroud and third-round receiver Tank Dell, the Texans' draft class is humming.
Indianapolis Colts
Original prediction: After finishing last in pass block win rate (PBWR) in 2022, the Colts rebound to a top-half finish in 2023.
Why I'm sticking: The Colts rank 20th in PBWR, so they're within range of pulling this off. Ryan Kelly leads centers in PBWR, and Quenton Nelson ranks 14th among guards. If Nelson continues to improve and Braden Smith's play keeps trending up -- he's 29th in PBWR at tackle -- this prediction could happen.
Kansas City Chiefs
Original prediction: CB Trent McDuffie makes the Pro Bowl.
Why I'm sticking: Among cornerbacks with at least 75 coverage snaps, McDuffie ranks ninth in expected points added (EPA) allowed, and he's second among corners in Pro Football Focus grading. That's a solid enough start to keep the Pro Bowl in play, especially playing for a high-profile contender.
New England Patriots
Original prediction: TE Hunter Henry records a career-high in receiving yards (652).
Why I'm sticking: I'm holding firm here, even though Henry is short of the pace needed, with 125 receiving yards in four games. He's playing more (84% of snaps as opposed to 76% last season) and has a career-high target share since joining the Patriots. He probably just needs the New England offense to rank better than 30th in EPA per play, as it does now. A little more efficiency should get Henry to the goal.
New Orleans Saints
Original prediction: WR Chris Olave reaches 1,500 receiving yards.
Why I'm sticking: Olave looks like the breakout star I (and many others) thought he would be. This is a lofty goal, though, because even after a strong start to the season with 306 yards through four games, he isn't on pace to hit the target. I'll still bet on him continuing to ascend and hitting this mark, though, as quarterback Derek Carr continues to get comfortable with the Saints' offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Original prediction: Jaylen Warren finishes the season with more touches than fellow RB Najee Harris.
Why I'm sticking: Warren already has passed Harris in touches, holding a 43 to 38 lead through four games. Neither back has been particularly efficient on the ground; in fact, Harris has produced slightly positive rush yards over expectation (RYOE) per carry after having a negative RYOE in his first two seasons. Warren is the much better receiver, though; he has 18 receptions this season.
Predictions on which I'm pivoting
Carolina Panthers
Original prediction: QB Bryce Young leads the league in interceptions thrown.
Why I'm pivoting: Young will lead rookie QBs in interceptions instead of all QBs. On one hand, his two interceptions are four off the league lead. On the other, I'm wary he'll be too conservative -- he has averaged just 5.0 air yards per attempt -- to throw that many interceptions. The Panthers are bad, so the picks will happen enough to beat out the other rookies.
Cleveland Browns
Original prediction: The Browns will win six or fewer games or 11 or more -- no in between.
Why I'm pivoting: On one hand, I think I was right: They are a team of extremes. The problem is those extremes are balancing each other out. Cleveland is poor on offense but great on defense, and I fear that means it will be mediocre in terms of record. Let's completely flip this around and predict the Browns will finish precisely 8-8-1 -- perfectly middling in aggregate (despite those extremes on each side of the ball continuing).
Green Bay Packers
Original prediction: The Packers win the NFC North.
Why I'm pivoting: The gap between the Lions and the Packers turned out to be real, with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) putting Detroit 3.5 points ahead going forward and the Lions already winning a head-to-head matchup at Lambeau. Injuries -- most notably to offensive tackle David Bakhtiari -- have hit Green Bay early, too. But the talent on the roster and coaching history gives me faith Green Bay can reach the postseason in the weak NFC, which means I'll pivot this prediction to the Packers making the playoffs.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Original prediction: The Jaguars finish last in pass block win rate, and the offensive line sinks any chances of them being an actual Super Bowl contender.
Why I'm pivoting: The spirit of the prediction looks correct, as the Jaguars are struggling on the line and don't look to be a Super Bowl contender, but the actual prediction won't be. After four weeks, the Jaguars rank 29th in PBWR which, while bad, isn't last. I'll pivot to the Jags having a bottom-five pass-protecting offensive line, which will prevent them from winning more than nine games.
Los Angeles Chargers
Original prediction: Justin Herbert leads all non-Patrick Mahomes QBs in QBR.
Why I'm pivoting: I'll change this to Herbert topping all non-Mahomes and Josh Allen quarterbacks in QBR. This is a slight tweak, as Herbert is playing great, with a 69.3 QBR through four games under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, which ranks sixth best. Ultimately, though, Mahomes and Allen are both in a tier above Herbert, which will show up in their efficiency. Herbert has a ways to go to catch up to Tua Tagovailoa and Brock Purdy to fulfill this new prediction, but he can get there (even with his recent finger injury).
Los Angeles Rams
Original prediction: The Rams trade DT Aaron Donald before the deadline.
Why I'm pivoting: OK, let me hedge a little to this: The Rams will trade Donald before the deadline if they go 3-5 through their first eight games. I entered the season confident they wouldn't be .500 by the deadline, but now that is very much in play. They are 2-2 and 12th in the FPI. Pretty good! But if they aren't serious contenders, it just makes too much sense to trade the 32-year-old Donald to recoup something for him while they still can.
New York Giants
Original prediction: OLBs Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari both hit 10 sacks.
Why I'm pivoting: With no sacks yet, I'm bailing on Ojulari's end of the prediction, but I'll keep the prediction of Thibodeaux reaching double-digit sacks, which seemed like a real long shot before Monday, when he recorded two sacks and a 23.5% PRWR against the Seahawks. That gives him three sacks total for the season and, in the blitz-heavy Don Martindale defense, puts in play 10 for the season.
New York Jets
Original prediction: OLB Bryce Huff finally gets more playing time and records at least eight sacks.
Why I'm pivoting: The good news: Huff is playing a little more than last season and his PRWR is still incredible as always, ranking fourth at edge, ahead of Myles Garrett. Bad news: He has zero sacks. I'll lower the goal here a bit, but I believe he'll reach a career high and earn at least six sacks.
San Francisco 49ers
Original prediction: TE George Kittle reaches 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2019.
Why I'm pivoting: I'll lower the target to 900 yards, which might make this a bolder call now than the 1,000 yards before the season because Kittle has put up just 148 yards. The big games have to be coming, though, because his underlying skill remains: His Open Score through four weeks is 76, highest among all tight ends.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Original prediction: Three QBs (Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask and John Wolford) will start for the Bucs this season.
Why I'm pivoting: Mayfield has been ... good! He ranks seventh in QBR (68.9) and sixth in completion percentage over expectation (plus-6%), per NFL Next Gen Stats. I remain unconvinced, however, because I remember Mayfield's 26 QBR from his time with the Panthers and Rams last season. I'll amend this prediction to be: At some point Mayfield will hit a cold streak, and the Bucs will bench him for Trask, but then turn back to Mayfield before the end of the season, because I'm guessing the Trask experiment won't work, either.
Tennessee Titans
Original prediction: The Titans will lose at least 12 games.
Why I'm pivoting: Mike Vrabel got me again. The Titans are overperforming with the 18th-ranked offense and 15th-ranked defense in EPA per play, and a 2-2 record. Still, I can't get over that offense, which could struggle, and don't see how it can succeed. I'm lowering my target but keeping the same idea. I'm sure I won't regret it. The pivot? The Titans lose at least 10 games.
Washington Commanders
Original prediction: Jacoby Brissett takes over as starting QB by Week 7.
Why I'm pivoting: Let's make it this: Brissett takes over at quarterback at some point this season. I was right about Sam Howell's sack problem -- his 14% sack rate is the highest in the league through four weeks -- and he has had interception problems, too, throwing five in four games. He has made enough plays to rank 17th in QBR, though, and even had the Commanders hanging with the Eagles until the end Sunday. That will buy Howell time, but I'm still skeptical.
Predictions on which I'm switching
Arizona Cardinals
Original prediction: The Cardinals win in Week 1 against the Commanders, then lose every game for the rest of the season.
Why I'm switching: The Cardinals are much better than I thought, with the offense looking particularly palatable. They only have one win but could easily have had one or two more. We have to switch this one up, and I'll go with: Rookie WR Michael Wilson will finish with at least 900 receiving yards.
Wilson has been impressive with 237 yards and an absurd 88% catch rate while leading all wide receivers in catch rate over expectation (plus-28%, per NFL Next Gen Stats). He ranks 15th in yards per route run vs. man coverage (2.7), too.
Atlanta Falcons
Original prediction: CB A.J. Terrell regains his 2021 form and is named either first- or second-team All-Pro.
Why I'm switching: Terrell has been fine, but he isn't on track to finish as an All-Pro. And another Falcon has caught my eye, so I'm switching to: RB Bijan Robinson will lead the league in rushing yards.
Yes, I'm sold. And with Browns star Nick Chubb out of the picture, this race is wide open. Robinson ranks second among running backs in rush yards over expectation (plus-121), so the opportunity should be there. The Falcons are the most run-heavy team in the league when win probability is between 15% and 85%.
Baltimore Ravens
Original prediction: LT Ronnie Stanley will be named a first-team All-Pro tackle.
Why I'm switching: Stanley has been able to play only one game because of a knee injury, so we're going to go with another lineman for this honor. The new prediction: Tyler Linderbaum will lead all centers in pass block win rate and be named to the Pro Bowl.
The second-year lineman is tied for the league lead in the metric. Linderbaum's pass protection has stood out because it comes at a time when Baltimore's protection is worse than it has been in years, in part because of Stanley's absence.
Buffalo Bills
Original prediction: WR Deonte Harty finishes second among Bills players in receiving yards after Stefon Diggs.
Why I'm switching: Harty ranks seventh on the Bills with just 38 receiving yards, even trailing veteran running back Latavius Murray. I'm grading this one as a loss and switching it up. I'll change it to: The Bills win 15 games.
It's hard to not be extremely impressed by what's happening in Buffalo. The Bills rank in the top three in EPA per dropback, EPA per designed run and EPA allowed per opponent dropback -- even though they have played the Dolphins. In other words: They are exceptional in essentially all areas but run stopping, where they are average. That's probably the least important category, though.
Cincinnati Bengals
Original prediction: QB Joe Burrow will set the standard for completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), beating out Matt Ryan's plus-8.3% in 2016.
Why I'm switching: Burrow -- who is battling a lingering calf injury -- should get healthier at some point, but he's not playing well, and I'm buying that Cincinnati's struggles as a team are real even if he comes back near 100%. I'm going with a new prediction: The Bengals will lose at least 10 games.
Their offensive line is a mess -- they rank 31st in PBWR -- which isn't that unusual, but their defense isn't picking up the slack like it has the past two seasons, as it ranks 23rd in EPA per play. It ranked ninth last season.
Las Vegas Raiders
Original prediction: The Raiders finish with a top-10 scoring offense.
Why I'm switching: I was wrong about this offense. The Raiders have just 62 points through four games and have had issues running the ball. And without an explosive offense, this team doesn't have much to offer, especially with a defense that hasn't shown an ability to pick up the slack. That relates to my new prediction: The Raiders will trade WR Davante Adams before the Oct. 31 deadline.
They might as well get what they can for one of the best receivers in the league while they can.
Miami Dolphins
Original prediction: The Dolphins finish as a top-three defense in terms of EPA allowed per play, even with cornerback Jalen Ramsey expected to miss most of the regular season.
Why I'm switching: Miami's hot start hasn't included great defensive play: It ranks 24th in EPA per play on that side of the ball. I'm switching up the prediction to: The Dolphins break the record for most efficient offense in terms of EPA per play.
The stat dates to 2006, and they sit at 0.30 EPA per play, ahead of the 2007 Patriots, who finished at 0.26. It will be tough to maintain this pace for 17 games, but it's in the cards.
Minnesota Vikings
Original prediction: Ty Chandler will take over as the team's top RB and lead the Vikings in rushing yards by the end of the season.
Why I'm switching: This prediction likely went out the window when the Vikings traded for Cam Akers. Let's switch it up to the other part of the Minnesota offense, and I'll say: Kirk Cousins throws for 5,000 yards.
The biggest factor here? How aggressive Minnesota is in relying on its passing game. The Vikings drop back to pass 69% of the time when win probability is between 15% and 85%, second only to the Chiefs. Plus, the defense isn't great, so that means they will likely get into some shootouts.
Philadelphia Eagles
Original prediction: The Eagles will rank in the top 10 in designed pass rate.
Why I'm switching: Through four weeks, my prediction couldn't be more wrong. They have gone the other direction, leaning more heavily on the run game with a 59% designed pass rate even when win probability is between 15% and 85% (25th highest). I'm switching it up to: The Eagles finish top three in interceptions on defense.
This is a fairly hot take for a team that has just two, well behind the leader (Buffalo, eight). The Eagles' run defense looks exceptional this season, though. They rank first in EPA allowed per designed run, and second-year defensive tackle Jordan Davis leads all defensive tackles in run stop win rate. Between Philadelphia likely being ahead a lot and the run defense being so strong, that will force opponents to pass against them -- which should lead to picks.
Seattle Seahawks
Original prediction: RT Abraham Lucas finishes as a top-10 tackle in pass block win rate.
Why I'm switching: Lucas was placed on IR because of a right knee injury after Week 1, so we're going to have to switch this one up. I'll go with: OLB Boye Mafe breaks out with at least nine sacks.
Mafe astonishingly ranks second in PRWR (35%), a number that caught my eye. He doesn't play a ton and has a few fluky wins on plays in which he got past his blocker vertically but is rushing high and outside, so either he gets to the passer or overruns him. Even if we remove a few of those wins, however, there would still be a lot to like, and we're seeing signs of a breakout.