In an NFL season that had previously produced a remarkably high percentage of close games, Sunday was blowout central. Eight of Sunday's 14 Week 4 games were blowout victories by two or more touchdowns, including the Sunday morning game from London and five of the games in the 1 p.m. ET window. Some of those big losses were expected. Joe Burrow & Co. getting dropped by 24 in Tennessee, though? That one wasn't on many radars.
Let's run through six of those eight blowouts to see how concerned fans should be about their teams. I'll leave out two teams. There isn't much to say about the Browns, who were routed 28-3 by Baltimore on a day in which they didn't have starting quarterback Deshaun Watson and couldn't do anything on offense with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center. And while Cardinals fans have to be happy with how hard their team has worked this season, I don't think any of them will be batting an eye at losing by 19 points to the 49ers.
Subscribe now: The Bill Barnwell Show
I'll stack the other six teams in order of how concerned I feel about their situations after being blown off the field, starting with the team I'm least concerned about, in part because the team that routed it has been dominant each of the past three weeks.
Jump to a team that got blown out:
Bengals | Dolphins | Falcons
Patriots | Saints | Steelers
1. Miami Dolphins (3-1)
Week 4 result: Lost 48-20 to BUF
It's not as much fun when you don't drop 70 on the opposing team, is it? The Dolphins were never going to live up to expectations after they scored 10 touchdowns against the Broncos last Sunday, but one week after looking like it was about to make an NFL defense cry, Vic Fangio's unit was happy to hear the final whistle. The Bills scored 48 points across their first nine drives on offense before letting up in the fourth quarter.
The simplest story for explaining what happened is more about what the Bills didn't do than what they did. According to NFL Next Gen Stats data, Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard was the closest defender in coverage on a pass attempt just once all game. Watching all the big plays back for Buffalo, you might have wondered whether he was even on the field. The star corner was an afterthought.
Instead, the Bills mercilessly attacked the other players in coverage for the Dolphins. Justin Bethel was likely the defender in coverage on a fake screen-and-go for a touchdown pass to Gabe Davis in the first quarter, and linebacker David Long was stretched for a long completion and on a touchdown pass to Stefon Diggs. The most frequent victim was second-year cornerback Kader Kohou.
With the Dolphins keeping Kohou on the right side of the defense for the entirety of the game against the Broncos, the Bills came out with a simple idea: Put Diggs on that side against the lesser of Miami's two outside corners. It turned into a three-touchdown game. Most of Diggs' 120 yards came with Kohou in coverage, and those figures don't even include a 43-yard pass interference penalty or an unnecessary roughness call. And when the Dolphins finally moved Howard to the right side, the Bills hit a 34-yard pass to Gabe Davis on a busted coverage on Kohou's new side of the field.
Kohou was a revelation as an undrafted rookie last season, and the Dolphins aren't about to bench him because of one bad game. At the same time, on Sunday, they felt the full impact of injuries to their key players. Jalen Ramsey, who would have been an obvious candidate to cover Diggs, has been sidelined for the entire season with a torn meniscus in his left knee and won't return until December.
Jaelan Phillips, a budding star on the edge, missed the game with an oblique injury. The Miami pass rush seemed to sit out with him. In the playoff game between these two teams last season, the Dolphins sacked Josh Allen seven times on 46 dropbacks, including a strip sack that was returned for a touchdown. On Sunday, Allen was sacked twice on 27 dropbacks. He was hit three times, down from 13 in the playoff game.
The same wasn't true for Tua Tagovailoa. After being hit just seven times across Miami's first three games, the MVP favorite was knocked down 11 times Sunday. Eight of those hits came after left tackle Terron Armstead was injured in the second quarter. The oft-ailing tackle left the game with a left knee injury and did not return, and Tagovailoa was subsequently sacked four times. Three of those sacks came off the left side of the line, while a pressure created when Leonard Floyd extricated himself from backup left tackle Kendall Lamm nearly led to an interception.
The Bills were able to get pressure on Tagovailoa before he could release the football, and when a defense gets pressure on any quarterback, the offense isn't going to look as good as it did when it scored 70 points. Tagovailoa dropped back 11 times against pressure Sunday and went 1-of-6 for 19 yards and four sacks. That's a product of a deep, talented defensive line as opposed to anything particularly schematic at first glance.
When the coaches' tape gets released Monday morning, one of the first things I'll be doing is looking to see what the Bills did on the back end in coverage. ESPN's automated coverage tracker suggests the Bills played some version of Cover 2 on 51.2% of their dropbacks, which is more than double their seasonal average and the second-highest rate we've seen in a single game since the start of the last season.
Only the Chargers were in two-deep shells more often than the Bills on Sunday, which makes sense: Buffalo tried to take away the big plays, allowed Miami to run for nearly 8.0 yards per carry and trusted that it would come up with a play on defense that would either get the Dolphins off schedule or hold up in the red zone. Sensational rookie De'Von Achane had a 55-yard run, but otherwise, the biggest play of the game was a 23-yard catch by fullback Alec Ingold. That's not how Miami drew it up on offense. Although I'm not sure how sustainable it is for other teams to emulate, it's how the Bills slowed the league's most devastating offense.
2. New Orleans Saints (2-2)
Week 4 result: Lost 26-9 to TB
The Saints had a simple plan this offseason. The defense, which ranked eighth in DVOA in 2022, was still playing at a high level. The offensive line, stocked with first-round picks, was solid. Chris Olave had emerged as a No. 1 receiver as a rookie, and pass-catchers Juwan Johnson and Rashid Shaheed were forming an interesting core around him. Getting an upgrade at quarterback would push New Orleans back into the postseason, and when Derek Carr landed on the open market, general manager Mickey Loomis pounced. We can argue about the team's ceiling with Carr, but the floor with the veteran passer taking over for Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston was unquestionably higher.
Well, through four games, the offense appears to have fallen through that floor. The Saints rank 28th in the league in points per drive and have scored more than one offensive touchdown in a game exactly one time, when they managed to muster two against the Panthers. Carr was sidelined by a right shoulder injury during the Packers game and probably wasn't 100% for Sunday's loss to the Buccaneers, but his 45.3 Total QBR across four starts ranks 24th.
It's tough to find anything on offense the Saints do well. Running the ball? Nope. They are 28th in success rate. That could be a product of using five different backs -- Taysom Hill, Tony Jones, Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams -- as a result of injuries, suspensions and inexplicable fiscal decisions, but it's also clear there aren't great opportunities for any of the backs so far. They are 27th in expected yards per carry, the NFL Next Gen Stats metric that estimates how many yards an average back would gain given the location and speed of blockers and defenders when they get the ball.
The line hasn't been quite as strong as the Saints would hope given the resources they continue to invest. Trevor Penning, a first-round pick last year who is seeing his first sustained stretch as a starter after injuries impacted his rookie season, has been up and down, with a dismal stretch against the Titans the low point. His struggles might not be surprising, but superstar right tackle Ryan Ramczyk has also been more beatable than normal; Rashan Gary got the best of him as the Packers launched their comeback last week. Guard Cesar Ruiz has missed most of the past two games with a concussion, and replacement Andrus Peat left the loss to the Bucs with a concussion of his own.
Pete Carmichael's offense doesn't appear to be giving Carr lots of easy answers, either. Carr ranked No. 1 in QBR off play-action in 2021, but the Saints have dialed up just 10 play-action passes for him through four games, which is comfortably the fewest of any team. (The average team has 29.) Carr is 6-of-10 on those throws for 49 yards and two first downs.
Instead, given a quarterback who doesn't typically prefer to throw deep, New Orleans has asked Carr to stretch the field. He has thrown 18 passes traveling 20 yards or more in the air, which is tied for fifth in the league. He had a 94.2 QBR on those throws last season, but that mark is down by 48 points. While he is 7-of-18 throwing deep, he has thrown two picks, both of which have fallen firmly in the "inexplicable" category.
The biggest problem for the Saints is the one that should fix itself with time, they hope. New Orleans has been the league's worst team inside the red zone. On 12 trips to the red zone, the Saints have scored just four touchdowns. The three plays they ran inside the 20-yard line Sunday lost a combined 6 yards, and both of their trips inside the red zone resulted in field goals.
They've been a little unlucky. Olave dropped a would-be touchdown pass against the Packers (admittedly only after that same pass went through the hands of a Green Bay defender) and had another score knocked out of his hands by a helmet. Another Olave screen looked as if it had produced a touchdown, only to be called back because he stepped out of bounds. Jones failed to turn around for a checkdown that could have been a score. Against the Titans, Carr missed a wide-open Michael Thomas in the end zone for a touchdown because he was pressured by Arden Key, who had beaten Penning.
The Saints will get better in the red zone. Last season, the worst red zone team through four weeks was the Broncos, and while I'm not exactly sure that comparing an offense to the 2022 Broncos is going to excite New Orleans fans, those same Broncos ranked seventh in red zone touchdown rate from Week 5 onward. Denver made it into the red zone a league-low 26 times over that stretch, but red zone conversion rate over a four-game sample doesn't mean much.
The underlying problems with this Saints offense, though, need to get better. The easy outs when Carmichael's offense was great were Thomas working the middle of the field and Kamara mismatched in space. Both those guys are on this roster, but 2019 was a long time ago. Sean Payton isn't around, and Thomas and Kamara might not be the players they once were. If one of those two becomes a significant second option to Olave in the passing attack, Carr's life will be a lot easier.
With the league's easiest schedule, the Saints should still be able to win games with a limited offense. They're a Blake Grupe miss away from starting 3-0 and have exactly two games over the rest of the season against teams that have begun 2023 with a winning record (Lions and Bucs). If this team has aspirations to do anything more than eke out narrow victories over bad opponents, Carr and Carmichael are going to have to find solutions that don't involve a time machine.
3. New England Patriots (1-3)
Week 4 result: Lost 38-3 to DAL
There weren't many positive takeaways for Mac Jones from Sunday's loss to the Cowboys. An early 42-yard completion to Demario Douglas seemed to augur a promising day, but things went south fast. Jones converted a second-and-16 by extending the play and throwing all the way across the field to Kendrick Bourne, who broke two tackles for a first down. When Jones tried it again two minutes later, DaRon Bland jumped the pass for an easy pick-six.
Those are Zach Wilson-esque throws from Jones, and not the much-improved version of Wilson we saw Sunday night against the Chiefs. Quarterbacks can't throw late and short to the opposite sideline regularly in the NFL and keep their jobs for long. Jones also lost a fumble to a hit from behind while scrambling, which is one of the easiest ways to be benched by Bill Belichick. Although Belichick kept Jones in for most of the game, he eventually pulled the 2021 first-round pick in the second half for Bailey Zappe.
Jones' hero ball isn't going to work against anyone, let alone the Cowboys. The fact that he was resorting to hero ball probably reveals more about what's wrong with the Patriots. Nobody is afraid of him or the playmakers on this offense, and it's dramatically capping what the Pats can do. Douglas' 42-yard catch came on a broken coverage at the end of a scramble drill where the Cowboys failed to successfully pass off crossing routes. It counts just the same as a great receiver Moss-ing a cornerback for 42 yards, but one is more likely to recur than the other.
Jones is 3-for-17 on deep passes this season, and his 13.7 QBR on those throws ranks 30th. Those three completions have included two blown coverages. Teams like the Dolphins force opposing defenses to bust coverages more often with their speed and motion, but the Patriots can't consistently do that. (They did sneak Pharaoh Brown out for a 58-yard touchdown in Week 3.) They might benefit from the occasional coverage bust, but they don't have the sorts of players who give opposing defensive backs nightmares.
Of course, this roster shouldn't have that guy on paper. Tyquan Thornton, a 2022 second-rounder drafted two picks before George Pickens, is on injured reserve. DeVante Parker hasn't been consistent in that role for most of his career. JuJu Smith-Schuster has played only about 59% of the offensive snaps and isn't an explosive receiver. That burden has fallen on Douglas, a rookie sixth-round pick, and even he was benched by Belichick after a fumble in the loss to the Dolphins.
Teams can win without one of those guys if they have an incredible pre-snap processor (like Tom Brady) and a great offensive line opening up holes on the ground, but the Patriots don't have a single run for 20 yards or more all season. Expected starting tackle Riley Reiff is also on IR, while guards Cole Strange and Mike Onwenu have missed time. Strange was sidelined Sunday, and Onwenu played but committed three penalties. He was the only offensive player in the league to commit three penalties in Week 4.
There are some positives. New coordinator Bill O'Brien has restored more play-action to this attack, and Jones ranks 12th in QBR when the Pats use play fakes. Tight end Hunter Henry has made a handful of spectacular catches. Douglas shouldn't be forced to be any team's primary deep threat as a late-round rookie, but he has made plays. The offense doesn't look broken in the way that it did with Matt Patricia in charge a year ago.
Instead, it looks more hopeless than dysfunctional, and that might be even worse. The one silver lining for the Patriots is that they've faced a brutal schedule to start the season. The Eagles, Jets and Cowboys have three of the league's best defenses, and the Dolphins are typically better than they looked against the Bills on Sunday. The Saints are another very good unit, but their pass rush is struggling, and after facing them in Week 5, the Pats get a Week 6 matchup with the Raiders in the Jakobi Meyers Double Revenge Game. If you're a Patriots fan looking for short-term hope, an easier schedule -- at least for a couple of weeks -- should probably be your first stop.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
Week 4 result: Lost 30-6 to HOU
What had been a disappointing game for the Steelers in Houston broke contain at the end of the third quarter. Quarterback Kenny Pickett was sacked while trying to scramble away from a pressure on fourth-and-1 and was wrenched down to the ground by Texans end Jonathan Greenard. There's no news on Pickett's left knee injury at the time of writing, but he wasn't able to return to the game.
Before the injury, the quarterback was struggling to live up to the expectations of Steelers fans after an excellent end to 2022. After turning the ball over just four times over the final nine games of his rookie season, Pickett had four turnovers over the first four games of the 2023 campaign, a figure that would have been even higher if not for some fortuitous drops.
Despite hitting on long touchdown passes to George Pickens and Calvin Austin, Pickett was averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt before his injury. The key number to keep in mind here is success rate, which measures how often a quarterback keeps his offense on schedule to score points. By the NFL Next Gen Stats model, Pickett has generated a 33.1% success rate on his dropbacks this season. Only Zach Wilson has been worse.
Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Matt Canada has never captured the imagination of the fan base. It's difficult to identify this offense's strength on a week-to-week basis or how it strikes fear in opposing coordinators on tape. Canada was once known as a coordinator who specialized in using shifts and motion to create mismatches and beneficial leverage for his offense.
In a league in which coaches such as Mike McDaniel are breaking defensive rules and brains with motion, the Steelers are not part of the vanguard. When a receiver is moving at the snap, Pickett is 4-of-10 for minus-4 yards and a QBR of 2.8. That's not a typo. Only Jimmy Garoppolo is worse. Pickett has been league average when a receiver goes in motion and then comes to a stop before the snap, which is good, but the Steelers don't run shifts at a particularly notable rate. Just 22% of his pass attempts have come on the run -- one of the larger rates in football -- but he ranks 22nd in expected points added (EPA) per play on those throws.
For now, it looks as if the starting quarterback against the Ravens next week might be Mitch Trubisky. There is little reason to believe he has developed any further while sitting behind Pickett for most of last season. Trubisky's physical talent might give the Steelers a spark, but Pickett is the better pure passer and generally makes better decisions with the football. Although the second-year passer wasn't playing well, Trubisky doesn't give them a great chance of improving their offensive mess.
Regardless of the quarterback situation, what might be even more damning for the Steelers is their inability to hold up in coverage. An organization that had a long history of drafting and developing young talent in the secondary has had to go outside the building to add veterans in recent years. Pittsburgh has high hopes for second-round pick Joey Porter Jr., but its six most-used defensive backs Sunday were all acquired in free agency or, in the case of Minkah Fitzpatrick, via trade. (When it won the Super Bowl in 2008, as an example, five of its six top defensive backs were homegrown draftees.)
Those defensive backs aren't holding up in coverage. The Steelers have edge rusher T.J. Watt, but he can't be an entire defense. They have an above-average sack rate, but their pressure rate is just below league-average. And when they don't get home, the secondary has been hopeless. They rank 28th in EPA per play allowed without pressure this season; only the Chargers and Broncos have allowed more yards per attempt in those situations, and they've had to go up against the Dolphins' offense. Pittsburgh was overmatched by an explosive 49ers offense in Week 1, but the Texans weren't supposed to be an elite passing attack.
We've seen the Steelers be competitive with middling quarterback play in the past, but that has required something special or outlier-ish for coach Mike Tomlin to stay above .500. In 2019, when they went 8-6 with Devlin Hodges and Mason Rudolph at quarterback, they survived by forcing a league-high 38 takeaways on defense. Last season, with Pickett learning on the job, they turned the ball over five times over their final nine games of the season on offense.
The good news for the Steelers is that the bye is coming in Week 6, and that should be about the time they'll expect wideout Diontae Johnson to return from his hamstring injury. The bad news is that defensive end Cameron Heyward (groin) is not expected to return until midseason, and they get the archrival Ravens this week. Baltimore isn't exactly healthy, but it has Lamar Jackson. It's unclear whether Pittsburgh will have its starting quarterback going forward, or whether it has the infrastructure to succeed with any quarterback at the helm.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)
Week 4 result: Lost 27-3 to TEN
OK, the Bengals got me. After Week 1, I was sure it was just an off week and some near misses throwing deep against a very good Browns defense. After Week 2, while Cincinnati had started 0-2, it had done the same thing in 2022 and still managed to make it to the AFC Championship Game. Remember the Chiefs in the 2019 playoffs, when it felt like they didn't even start trying until they were trailing by 10 points? That's the Bengals. Their way of warming up for a great season is by starting 0-2.
Now they're 1-3. I'm writing my third iteration of "Should we be concerned about the Bengals?" in four weeks. This one comes after a narrow victory over the Rams in a game in which the pass rush stepped up and swallowed Matthew Stafford, plus a comprehensive loss to the Titans. The final score undersold the difference between these two teams Sunday; in the second half, the Titans punted from midfield and kneeled in the red zone to end the game.
I'm officially concerned about the Bengals. I don't think Joe Burrow & Co. forgot how to play football, but it has now been a month, and so many hallmarks of what this offense did well over the past two seasons simply haven't been options. Without being able to fall back on those core constructs, they haven't had answers on offense.
Take working out of an empty backfield, where Burrow has torched defenses going back to his legendary final season at LSU in 2019. Between 2021 and 2022, he completed nearly 70% of his passes working out of empty and averaged 8.1 yards per attempt. He averaged more than seven attempts out of empty per game, and the only quarterback to throw for more yards out of those sets over that two-year span was Stafford.
This season, Burrow is 6-of-11 for 24 yards out of empty. He ran two plays out of empty Sunday; one was a screen to Ja'Marr Chase for 5 yards, and the other was a dropped interception near the end zone. It has become clear the Bengals don't trust Burrow (or Burrow doesn't trust his balky right calf) in those situations, and that's taking a chunk out of this offense. Knowing he isn't comfortable moving around, teams are teeing off on him in the pocket, where his 33.6 QBR ranks 27th. That's down from fourth on throws inside the pocket between 2021 and 2022.
It's not just about Burrow's mobility. The Titans sacked him three times on 33 dropbacks, but that tells only part of the story. He was pressured on 47.1% of his drops, which was the seventh-highest rate for any quarterback in Week 4. As ESPN's Seth Walder noted, the Bengals finished the day with a 32% pass block win rate, which suggests their linemen were having trouble keeping Burrow protected in the first 2.5 seconds after the snap. The league average this season is 56%. If Burrow can't move and Cincinnati can't protect him, the offense is in a lot of trouble.
Trey Hendrickson and the pass rush took over in helping the Bengals get their only win, against the Rams, but, like the divisional rivals in Pittsburgh, Cincinnati rebuilt its secondary this offseason. Also like the Steelers, when the Bengals don't get pressure, they have major problems. They rank 28th in QBR without pressure this season, so when the pass rush doesn't get home, they haven't been able to hold up behind.
All of this is bad, but what really worries me is what happens next. Burrow isn't healthy and clearly needs to rest. Cincinnati's bye doesn't come until Week 7, and afterward, the Bengals get the 49ers and Bills in back-to-back games. We know they can beat anybody on their best day, but I'm not sure they have access to their usual offensive ceiling with Burrow limited and Tee Higgins now sidelined by a rib injury.
Over the next two weeks, the Bengals are at the Cardinals and then host the Seahawks. In a perfect world, they might be able to sit Burrow for both of those games, count on getting a split with a win over Arizona, and get him back after three weeks of rest. Starting 2-4 isn't great -- no team has ever made it to the Super Bowl with a losing record after six games -- but at least they would have the healthiest possible version of Burrow for their toughest stretch of the season.
At 1-3, though, it's tough to believe the Bengals are in position to win even one of those games with an untested Jake Browning at quarterback. They need to win those games to get their season back on track. And after what has happened so far, there's no guarantee they'll win either of those games, even with Burrow.
6. Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
Week 4 result: Lost 23-7 to JAX
About the nicest thing you could say about this Falcons offense is that for many of the fans who woke up early to watch the game, it likely helped them get back to sleep. Atlanta took part in one of the worst games I've ever witnessed during a previous trip to London, but this was more standard-issue boring. It was yet another game with two top-10 picks as decoys so blocking tight end Jonnu Smith can lead Atlanta in receptions (six) and receiving yards (95).
Before the Falcons' win expectancy dropped below 10%, Desmond Ridder was 9-of-17 for 68 yards with a crushing pick-six on a slant that simply wasn't there. The pick ended the first Atlanta drive of any note in four tries and was followed immediately by another interception. Neither pass should have been thrown when he released the football. The play design of the second pick had nothing to get the free safety out of the middle of the field, and when Ridder was late to throw to Kyle Pitts, Jacksonville's Andre Cisco had an easy interception.
I wrote a lot about Ridder last week, and much of it applies to what we saw Sunday. There's just not enough of a vertical component to this passing attack, especially given how effective Atlanta is when running the football. Ridder attempted two deep throws in London and failed to complete either pass. He was 1-of-4 for 7 yards working off play-action. In coach Arthur Smith's previous job at Tennessee, teams that sold out to stop Derrick Henry were punished by huge chunk plays from Ryan Tannehill on play-action. Now, teams that sell out to stop the run against the Falcons just have to worry about which tight end or running back is bringing in a screen.
Sacks continue to be a problem. Ridder was taken down four times on 35 dropbacks, including a strip sack on Atlanta's final snap of the game. Again, the Falcons didn't score on the drives in which Ridder was sacked. The Jaguars have exciting players in their pass rush, but they had five sacks in three games before this game. One sack was on a designed quarterback draw, but Ridder panicked on third-and-1 in the pocket and ran his way into a takedown.
I'll lean on what I said in Thursday's column. The ultimate proof of concept in football is success. The Falcons ran an old-school, ground-intensive offense last season, but it worked. They ranked 11th in EPA per play with Marcus Mariota (and four games of Ridder) at quarterback. Even after adding first-round running back Bijan Robinson, who carried the ball 14 times for 105 yards Sunday, the Falcons rank 23rd in EPA per play on offense. They're 27th in EPA per play on designated pass plays.
One of two things is probably true. Scenario No. 1 is the Falcons don't trust Ridder to do much as a passer. Scenario No. 2 is the Falcons do trust Ridder but the second-year quarterback just isn't executing at a high level. Neither one is going to make for a good offense, but it would be disappointing relative to preseason expectations if either was true. The scariest outcome for Falcons fans, unfortunately, is that both scenarios are in play right now.