It's pretty easy to wave off Oct. 1 results in the NFL and say it's still too early to draw conclusions. But the game that took place in Buffalo, New York, on Sunday felt like it really did mean something. At least to the Bills.
The Dolphins rolled into town on the heels of last Sunday's 70-point offensive explosion against the Broncos. They were the lone unbeaten team in the AFC and were poised, it seemed, to announce themselves as the new big, bad bullies of the AFC East. It was pretty hard last week to find anyone who wasn't impressed with the Dolphins and the way their offense was humming along. But the Bills weren't having it.
Buffalo thumped Miami, rolling up a 31-14 halftime lead en route to a 48-20 victory. The Bills held the Dolphins under 400 yards, one week after Miami had 726. They won the turnover battle, something they didn't do in any of their three games against the Dolphins last year. They were, in fact, turnover-free. Josh Allen was 21-for-25 for 320 yards, four touchdown passes and a perfect passer rating. Stefon Diggs caught three of the touchdowns. Allen ran for another one. They punted only twice. And as a result, the Bills are 3-1.
The season-opening "Monday Night Football" loss to the Jets, which is destined to be remembered for other reasons anyway, seems to have faded from view. And the Bills are back on top of the division they've won each of the past three years. So this week's overreactions column -- where we judge a few potential takeaways from the weekend's games -- must begin thusly:
Jump to:
Bills still atop AFC East?
Stroud over Young in the draft?
Two-point try for Commanders?
Heinicke in for Atlanta?
Patriots in QB market?
The Bills are still the team to beat in the AFC East
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Bills haven't just been good since that Week 1 loss to the Jets; they've been dominant. They have won their past three games by a combined score of 123-33, handing three teams their first losses of the season in the process. The 123 points are their highest three-game total in franchise history. They are also the sixth team in NFL history to score 135 or more points and allow fewer than 60 in their first four games. Each of the previous five went on to play in that season's Super Bowl.
The Dolphins appear to be an excellent team and a strong AFC contender, Sunday notwithstanding. But I feel like people might have forgotten how good this Bills team was, with all of the offseason fuss that was made about the Dolphins and Jets. And that might have bothered them. The way they came out Sunday indicates that they saw this game as an opportunity to remind everybody who you still have to beat to win the AFC East -- no matter how many points you managed to score the week before against Denver.
C.J. Stroud should have been the first pick in the 2023 draft
The Texans' rookie quarterback, who was the second pick in this year's draft behind Carolina's Bryce Young, has been one of the eye-opening early-season success stories of the whole league. Houston followed its 37-17 Week 3 thrashing of the division-rival Jaguars with a 30-6 beatdown of the offensively hapless Steelers on Sunday, and the Texans are 2-2 -- tied with, well, everyone else for first place in the AFC South.
Stroud has completed 62.2% of his passes, averaged 303 passing yards per game and thrown six touchdown passes without an interception. He is the third quarterback in NFL history to have two games with 300 or more passing yards, two or more touchdown passes and no interceptions in his first four games. The other two are Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. Stroud also has more passing yards in his first four games than anyone other than Cam Newton has ever had. And he's 25 pass attempts behind Dak Prescott's record for most interception-free throws to begin a career.
Meanwhile, Young and the Panthers are 0-4. Young missed last week's game due to an ankle injury, and he has thrown as many interceptions (two) as touchdown passes.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Overreaction, but only because four games isn't enough of a sample size to draw this kind of conclusion. Stroud has been everything the Texans could have asked for so far, and he looks like he entered the league more ready to play than Young did. This is a surprise to folks who followed both quarterbacks' progress this summer, but it speaks very highly of Stroud and the work he has put in to hit the ground running.
The Texans are 2-2 for the first time since 2019, which was also the last year they made the playoffs. They have a head-to-head win against the division-favorite Jags in their pocket. Is it wild to think they can hang around and contend for a playoff spot? Not if Stroud's going to play like this.
Ron Rivera and the Commanders should have gone for two at the end of regulation
Washington quarterback Sam Howell led a 10-play, 64-yard touchdown drive in the final 1:43 against the defending NFC champion Eagles. It culminated in a 10-yard touchdown pass to receiver Jahan Dotson with no time left on the clock that cut the Philadelphia lead to one point. But rather than try a 2-point conversion that would have won the game, Rivera elected to kick the extra point and send it into overtime.
The Commanders won the overtime coin toss but couldn't score, and the Eagles won it with a 54-yard Jake Elliott field goal to improve to 4-0.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
You had momentum! Your offense was clicking! You needed 2 measly yards to beat the best team in your division and get to 3-1! Instead, you chose to take it to overtime.
Whatever happened to Riverboat Ron? Asked after the game if he considered going for two, Rivera said yes but that he decided against it because his offense was "gassed." To which I say: Was the Eagles' defense, which had been on the field for the same breathless touchdown drive, not also gassed?
Now I must point out that our ESPN analytics say the Commanders' win probability was 48% if they kicked the PAT there versus 45% if they went for two, so it was technically the right decision. But the fact that both numbers are under 50% tells you what you need to know about the Commanders' underdog status in this game. The analytics don't know how much it might have meant to the Commanders for their coach to tell them, "Go win the game right here" -- especially if it had worked. Washington might not get as good a chance to beat Philadelphia again this season.
Taylor Heinicke should be starting at quarterback for the Falcons
Sunday began with a game in London between the Jaguars and Falcons, who have used a top-10 pick on an offensive skill position player in each of the past three drafts (Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson) and made the baffling decision to put it all in the hands of Desmond Ridder, a 2022 third-round pick. Ridder, to put it kindly, has not played well this season as the team's starting quarterback, and a couple of rough first-half interceptions didn't do anything to change that. He's currently 29th in Total QBR (29.3) and 26th in completion rate (62.2%).
I've seen some people raise the notion that the Falcons aren't protecting Ridder well enough, and that might be true. They are 29th in pass block win rate at 44.4%. But there are plenty of QBs around the league overcoming protection issues -- including our man Stroud -- and even a live audience that doesn't know this game could have told you Sunday that a lot of this is on Ridder, who hasn't shown much growth or promise.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Because the Falcons need to think bigger!
Heinicke is a veteran who might be able to stabilize things. And he'd certainly be willing to throw downfield more than Ridder, who is averaging 6.5 air yards per attempt. But it's hard to imagine him as the answer for a team that really looks like it could be pretty good with some competent QB play.
The Falcons are loaded with skill position talent on offense. Robinson is awesome to watch, and it's entirely possible London and Pitts would be too if Atlanta would use them. The defense has looked pretty good under first-year coordinator Ryan Nielsen, too. This is a team that could contend for a division title and maybe more with a good quarterback.
Everybody wants to talk about the Jets trading for Kirk Cousins, but this might actually be the team that should do that. There's a lot of talent going to waste in Atlanta right now.
The Patriots will be in the quarterback market next offseason
Mac Jones got benched in the third quarter of Sunday's loss in Dallas for Bailey Zappe. At the time of the benching, Jones was 12-for-21 with two interceptions. The score was 31-3 in favor of Dallas. The final score was 38-3, which tells you the switch to Zappe didn't really ignite anything.
Jones was pressured on 10 of 18 dropbacks in the first half, which is 56% and a massive number, but it highlights an issue that Jones has yet to overcome. He struggles significantly when pressured and hasn't made the kind of progress the Patriots had hoped to see in that area. The 35-point loss was the worst of Bill Belichick's career, and the 55 points the Patriots have scored this season are the fewest they've scored in the first four games of a season since 2000 -- Belichick's first year in New England.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Look, the Patriots are very undermanned at wide receiver. Jones has had three different offensive coordinators in three NFL seasons. There is plenty working against him. But as we said about Ridder, that's life, man. You have to overcome. And Jones hasn't done much of it.
The Patriots will have to decide by May 2 on Jones' fifth-year option for 2025, and if they continue to look this way on offense, they're probably going to be looking around at other options, even if they stick with him for another year. I'm not necessarily worried about Jones getting benched for Zappe moving forward. Remember there was a whole Jones-Zappe thing last year, and it didn't stick. Zappe hasn't shown much either.
It does need to be stated here that every quarterback (other than Arizona's Joshua Dobbs) who has faced the Cowboys so far this year has looked dreadful. And the Patriots still have three-quarters of a season for Jones to keep working with new coordinator Bill O'Brien and make some advancements. But if he doesn't? Yeah, I have to think a whole bunch of stuff is on the table in New England next spring.