The College Football Playoff selection committee's third ranking is guaranteed to look different Tuesday night after Oklahoma's win at Alabama, but how different depends on ... Notre Dame.
The biggest question facing the group this week is how the two-loss teams will stack up, and assuming the committee rewards Oklahoma's head-to-head win against the Tide, the duo will likely be a package deal -- either above Notre Dame, or below. Have the Irish done enough to remain the committee's top two-loss team? Or will the Sooners' statement win push Notre Dame down, even after the Irish won at Pitt?
Here's a prediction of what the selection committee will do when it reveals its third of six rankings Tuesday night (8:30 ET, ESPN).
Projecting the top 12
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0)
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have already won over the room, and nothing happened Saturday in a lopsided win against UCLA that would alter that perception. Former CFP selection committee chair Mack Rhoades said Tuesday that there has been a "really clear consensus in the room" that Ohio State is the No. 1 team in the country. "Really good defensively, particularly up front," Rhoades said. "Their offensive line play is outstanding. They have the great playmakers in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The quarterback [Julian] Sayin right now leads the country in passing efficiency and completion percentage." Ohio State entered Saturday ranked in the top three in offensive and defensive efficiencies.
Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify dropping the Buckeyes after Ohio State and Indiana overwhelmed similar unranked opponents. One of the Buckeyes' few weaknesses, though, is the lowest strength of schedule (No. 42) of the committee's top-four teams.
Need to know: The Buckeyes still have not clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Wolverines kept their CFP hopes alive Saturday by avoiding an upset to Northwestern, and a win against the committee's No. 1 team would catapult them into contention. It's the only CFP top-25 team left on Ohio State's regular-season schedule. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
2. Indiana Hoosiers (11-0)
Why they could be here: Though Ohio State has separated itself at the top, there shouldn't be much debate this week between the Hoosiers and No. 3 Texas A&M. Indiana again asserted itself against a weaker opponent in Wisconsin, while the Aggies needed an epic comeback to survive three-win South Carolina. Indiana entered Week 12 leading the nation in total efficiency, and No. 2 in ESPN's strength of record metric and game control. Over the past few weeks, Indiana's defense has earned the committee's respect and is one of the reasons the Hoosiers have been ranked ahead of the Aggies. "We give Indiana certainly the edge -- offensively, they're the top-scoring offense in the country," Rhoades said. "Their defense is ranked second."
Why they could be higher: With the committee's top three all winning -- and Ohio State and Indiana playing sub-.500 teams -- it's hard to imagine the committee changing the order Tuesday.
Need to know: Indiana still hasn't clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game. Even with its win against Wisconsin, the Hoosiers also needed Week 12 losses by Michigan, Oregon and USC.
Toughest remaining game: The Hoosiers have only one left: Nov. 28 at Purdue. It's on a Friday night against an in-state rival, and Indiana has at least a 96% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
3. Texas A&M Aggies (10-0)
Why they could be here: The Aggies needed the biggest comeback in school history to beat 3-7 South Carolina 31-30, and keep their No. 3 spot and unblemished record. Of the top-three teams, the Aggies had the best strength of record (No. 1) and strength of schedule (No. 15) entering Week 12. Texas A&M's win at Notre Dame remains one of the best nonconference victories in the country, but it's also the Aggies' only one against a current CFP top-25 team. The road win at Mizzou helps the Aggies' résumé, but was tempered in the room because it came against the Tigers' freshman backup quarterback Matt Zollers, who was playing for injured starter Beau Pribula.
Why they could be higher: It's unlikely the Aggies move up after needing a 28-point second-half to beat South Carolina by one point -- especially a week after the committee kept the status quo when the Aggies went on the road and beat then-No. 22 Mizzou.
Need to know: Texas A&M still has not clinched a spot in the SEC title game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. It's the only ranked opponent remaining on the Aggies' schedule.
4. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1)
Why they could be here: Georgia can move ahead of two-loss Alabama despite the head-to-head defeat Sept. 27 because the Bulldogs have fewer losses. In addition to soundly beating what was the committee's No. 10 team in Texas, Georgia also earned a small promotion from Alabama dropping. Georgia's win against Ole Miss will keep it above the Rebels, and the road win against Tennessee gives the Bulldogs a stronger résumé than Texas Tech. Georgia entered Saturday ranked No. 5 in ESPN's strength of record metric, followed by Texas Tech at No. 9. Georgia's strength of schedule was also No. 11 compared with the Red Raiders, whose schedule was ranked No. 47, according to ESPN Analytics.
Why they could be lower: It would be difficult for the committee to justify dropping Georgia after a dominant win against the committee's No. 10 team when Texas Tech's win came against a 4-6 UCF team.
Need to know: Georgia has not clinched a spot in the SEC title game yet. It needed a win AND a Texas A&M loss, but the Aggies had the biggest comeback in school history to beat South Carolina.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia Tech. The one-loss Yellow Jackets pushed their in-state rival to eight overtimes last year, and continue to find ways to win this season, even if it's not pretty.
5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders are "highly regarded by the committee," Rhoades said last week, earning the room's respect with their complete performances in wins against two top-13 teams -- BYU and Utah. Rhoades said that defensively, the Red Raiders are "really, really good. Offensively, moves the ball up and down the field." The only concern he mentioned was leaving some points on the board by finishing drives with field goals instead of touchdowns, but that wasn't the case Saturday against UCF. Texas Tech had a 41-2 lead at the half.
Why they could be lower: It would be surprising to see the Red Raiders fall behind Ole Miss after the Rebels struggled for the bulk of four quarters against Florida. The committee made it clear last week that it thought Texas Tech was the better team, and nothing Ole Miss did against a now 3-7 Florida team is likely to change that.
Need to know: Texas Tech, which lost at Arizona State on Oct. 18, still hasn't clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game. It also needed losses by Arizona State, Cincinnati and Utah.
Toughest remaining game: There's only one left: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. It's on the road at a difficult venue, but the Red Raiders have a bye week to prepare and a 90% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
6. Ole Miss Rebels (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Rebels are likely to get bumped up one spot because Alabama dropped -- not because they beat Florida. The selection committee moved Texas Tech ahead of Ole Miss last week in part because of a better résumé, as the Red Raiders had two top-25 wins (BYU and Utah), and Ole Miss has one (Oklahoma). That win against the Sooners, though, looks even better after OU's win at Alabama.
Why they could be higher: Though the committee has shown more respect for the Red Raiders' wins, it could consider whom they lost to -- and Ole Miss would win that debate. The Rebels' lone loss was Oct. 18 at Georgia, which is a better defeat than Texas Tech's to Arizona State (7-3). It looks even better after the Bulldogs beat Texas, and Georgia is likely to move up a spot, making the Rebels' lone defeat a road loss to a top-four team.
Need to know: Ole Miss has only two road wins -- Sept. 6 at Kentucky and Oct. 25 at Oklahoma. With the No. 34 schedule strength entering this week and just one CFP top-25 win, a second loss could be more damaging to the Rebels' playoff hopes than it might appear.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Rebels have only one remaining game and get a bye week to prepare for it.
7. Oregon Ducks (9-1)
Why they could be here: A convincing win against Minnesota on Friday isn't going to wow the committee, but the win at Iowa on Nov. 8 is carrying significant weight in the room. The committee has a lot of respect for the Hawkeyes, who pushed both Oregon and USC to the fourth quarter. The Ducks have won four straight since the Oct. 11 double-digit home loss to the Hoosiers. Oregon has continued to assert itself against weaker competition, though, ranking No. 4 in ESPN's game control metric entering this week and No. 6 in strength of record. Oregon should get a small boost by default Tuesday, thanks to Alabama earning its second loss and dropping.
Why they could be higher: Oregon and Ole Miss are similar when it comes to their résumés, and there probably wasn't enough evidence to flip them this week, with both teams beating unranked opponents. The committee has had Ole Miss ranked higher in each of the first two rankings.
Need to know: The most likely Big Ten title game matchup remains Indiana and Ohio State, but nobody has technically clinched it yet.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC. The Trojans are 8-2 with one Big Ten loss, and a win at Oregon would flip the script in the league's playoff pecking order.
8. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2)
Why they could be here: The Sooners have three CFP top-25 wins, including back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. Those wins are more impressive than any combination of Notre Dame victories. Oklahoma's head-to-head tiebreaker over the Tide should factor into the committee's decision this week, but the loss to Texas can now be overcome. With the rival Longhorns earning their third defeat of the season, it's easier for the committee to justify. The Sooners' Sept. 6 home win against Michigan is one of the best nonconference victories in the country, as the two-loss Wolverines remain in playoff contention. OU also has respectable losses, with both coming to CFP top-25 teams, Texas and Ole Miss.
Why they could be lower: The committee's evaluation of these teams is based on their résumés and what the members see on film, and they have been wowed by Notre Dame's defense and its running game. If what they see on film from Notre Dame -- including in Saturday's win at Pitt -- outweighs the Sooners' résumé, the Irish will remain their top two-loss team.
Need to know: After Saturday's win, Oklahoma's chances of reaching the playoff jumped to 52.3%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Toughest remaining game: That was it. The Sooners survived Bama on the road; now they have to avoid what would be a devastating home upset to either Mizzou or LSU. Both teams are unranked and have at least three losses.
9. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2)
Why they could be here: The head-to-head loss to Oklahoma will likely drop the Tide behind the Sooners because their records are the same, and Alabama's loss to Florida State is far worse than either of OU's defeats to Texas and Ole Miss. Alabama has more statement wins than Notre Dame, which could keep the Tide ahead of the Irish for a third straight week. This was a two-point loss, to a CFP top-12 team, so Alabama is still squarely in the playoff conversation, thanks to four straight wins against Georgia, Vandy, Mizzou and Tennessee. It also has three SEC road victories, including Sept. 27 at Georgia. That win could be against a CFP top-four team Tuesday night, if Georgia gets a bump after its victory against Texas.
Why they could be lower: Of the two-loss teams, Notre Dame might have the best defeats -- to Miami and Texas A&M -- by a combined four points. The committee has been impressed by what it has seen on film from the Irish during an eight-game winning streak.
Need to know: This was the Tide's first conference loss, which means it can still reach the SEC championship game and clinch a spot in the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. If they lose the regular-season finale to rival Auburn, though, the three-loss Tide would drop out of the playoff race, with two bad defeats to sub-.500 opponents.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Iron Bowl is now a must-win for the Tide.
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2)
Why they could be here: The Irish had no trouble beating Pitt on the road, earning some style points as they showcased everything the committee has already rewarded them for. "The committee really likes Notre Dame as a complete team, again, defensively," Rhoades said. "Their run game is as good as anybody, if not the best in the country, when you think about their two backs, [Jeremiyah] Love and [Jadarian] Price. Then [CJ] Carr at the quarterback spot, he's the third-ranked quarterback in terms of passing efficiency in the country." Notre Dame has won eight straight games since its 0-2 start, and the committee continues to note that those losses were by a combined four points to top-20 teams.
Why they could be higher: If Notre Dame remains the committee's top two-loss team, it's because the members value what they're seeing on film more than schedule strength. Notre Dame entered Saturday trailing Oklahoma and Alabama in strength of record and strength of schedule. That gap is expected to widen after the Sooners' win.
Need to know: Even if the Panthers fall out of the committee's top 25 on Tuesday, the group will still respect this win. It was on the road, in convincing fashion and against a team still in contention for the ACC title.
Toughest remaining game: Notre Dame ends the season against Syracuse and Stanford, two teams that have combined for a 6-14 record. Because the game against Stanford is on the road, it will be slightly more difficult, but the Irish have at least a 94% chance to win each game, according to ESPN Analytics.
11. BYU Cougars (9-1)
Why they could be here: BYU's 24-21 win against Utah is the highlight of its résumé, and its lone loss was on the road to one of the committee's top teams, Texas Tech. Still, BYU's poor play against the Red Raiders factored into the committee's discussions, and a decisive win against a four-loss TCU team will not do much to close the gap between BYU and the Big 12's best team. Nor was it enough for the committee to justify a bigger promotion for the Cougars, but they could move up one spot this week if Texas drops below them.
Why they could be lower: Utah is a safety net for BYU because of the head-to-head, so if the Cougars were any lower, it would be because the committee kept three-loss Texas in the mix.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, BYU would still be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee's top 12 but guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 at Cincinnati. Considering Utah already defeated Cincy 45-14, BYU will be expected to win in similar fashion, but the Bearcats will be looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses.
12. Utah Utes (8-2)
Why they could be here: The committee has a lot of respect for what it has seen from Utah, but the Utes lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with BYU. The Nov. 1 win against Cincinnati lost some of its luster after the Bearcats fell to Arizona on Saturday and will probably drop out of the CFP top 25. Because Texas has three losses, though, it could be difficult for some committee members to rank the Longhorns above Utah or BYU. Texas also has a bad loss to Florida, while both of Utah's losses (Texas Tech and BYU) were to CFP top-12 teams.
Why they could be lower: There could be committee members who still believe Texas is better, even with three losses. It wouldn't be the first time a three-loss SEC team was ranked ahead of two-loss teams. Last year, three-loss Alabama was No. 11 ahead of two-loss Miami and two-loss BYU.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Utah would be excluded during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which this week we project will be Navy.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Kansas. The only difference between this five-loss team and five-loss K-State is that it's on the road.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Navy (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Navy/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State