The NFL is experiencing a sack explosion in 2024, a theme that very much aligns with a loaded free agency class of defensive linemen and edge rushers.
Fifteen NFL teams have at least 12 sacks through four games, putting them on pace for 50-plus quarterback takedowns. The league never has produced more than four teams above the 50-sack threshold in a given year. Perhaps offensive lines will adjust and numbers will dwindle, but for now elite pass rushers are getting to the quarterback.
That includes several players who are set to hit free agency in March. The old adage in scouting circles is free agency means paying "B" players "A" dollars. But this year, "A" players will be available, assuming their teams don't keep them via the franchise tag or extensions. And many of them play the positions that come at a premium cost -- including defensive tackle, defensive end and outside linebacker.
And, yes, the skill positions are loaded, too. The trio of franchise-tagged running backs -- Saquon Barkley (Giants), Josh Jacobs (Raiders) and Tony Pollard (Cowboys) -- will be on the market. Receiver is a much stronger market than a year ago. At least eight safeties can come in and start at a high level.
After consulting with people around the league, we assess who's making money with their early season play, which sneaky good players will get paid, who's in line for big-money extensions and who needs to pick up the pace to ensure a stronger free agency.
Some names don't need to be listed and will still secure strong contracts. Cincinnati receiver Tee Higgins comes to mind. He's got 129 yards through four weeks, but many teams consider him a No. 1-type talent. Plus, Cincinnati's entire offensive operation has been a mess. Higgins will do very well.
But others have made a compelling case for teams to look deeper into their wallets over the next six months.
Jump to:
Top performers among free agents-to-be
Unsung players getting paid
Not FAs, but will get big deals
More free agent QB stock
Need a better October
Top performers among free agents-to-be
Chris Jones, DT, Kansas City Chiefs
Jones didn't need a hot start to solidify his status as a top free agent, but he's helped his case tremendously by producing right away after his holdout. The Chiefs were impressed -- but not surprised -- that Jones showed up for Week 2 in excellent shape and produced 3.5 sacks through his first three games, setting a tone for a defense that's been mostly stout.
The Chiefs effectively won the standoff with Jones, who lost millions by missing all of training camp and Week 1, only to sign a reworked one-year deal that requires hitting a series of incentives to be made whole. Since the franchise tag would cost the Chiefs more than $30 million in 2024, Jones is poised to hit the open market -- and will be rewarded. One veteran NFL agent forecasts a three-year, $90 million pact between Jones and a contender. An NFL executive saw something short of that ... but close.
Another star defensive tackle in this class is Christian Wilkins, who is a top-10 tackle in the eyes of some evaluators. He'll have a robust market if the Dolphins don't franchise-tag him.
Brian Burns, LB, Carolina Panthers
The stage is set for Burns to earn a massive payday. He's an elite edge rusher who turned 25 in April and is poised for another double-digit-sack season with three quarterback takedowns through four weeks. Only one problem -- the Panthers would almost assuredly franchise Burns at the end of the season if they don't reach a long-term agreement by the end of the tag window. Projections for the tag are just under $22 million, which is on the low end of the pass-rush market. That could be a problem for Burns, whose agents negotiated with Carolina for months.
The Panthers made a push to close the gap before Week 1 but couldn't get there. Carolina turned down multiple first-round picks and more from the Rams at the 2022 trade deadline -- which, in the end, probably complicated contract talks.
Washington edge rusher Montez Sweat also has three sacks and figures to command top dollar.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
All Evans does is ball. The Bucs opted not to extend him before Week 1, and now he's set to hit free agency for the first time in his career ... at age 30. Not ideal for a wideout, but he hasn't shown signs of slowing. He's currently pacing for 1,432 yards, which would be a career high. He can help a lot of teams -- unless Tampa jumps the market to keep him.
Indy receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is also pacing for a 1,000-yard season, proving more capable of No. 1 duties as a physical, big downfield target. Then there are good receivers stuck in struggling offenses, such as Chicago's Darnell Mooney, who could do well in a new place.
Rashan Gary, LB, Green Bay Packers
Gary's return from a torn right ACL has been triumphant. He has 3.5 sacks and six quarterback hits in a limited role (77 snaps) as the team eases him back into action. Green Bay is bringing him along slowly, with the hope that he's a three-down player by later in the year. The Packers typically try to lock up key players late in their contract years, so it wouldn't surprise if the Packers make an aggressive play to secure Gary in November or December.
Antoine Winfield Jr., S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winfield is widely considered a top-10 safety who is doing damage this year playing more of a true safety role instead of his slot corner duties from last year. He was brilliant Sunday in New Orleans with nine tackles, one sack, two tackles for loss, one fumble recovery and a slick end zone pass breakup of a would-be Chris Olave touchdown. The Bucs will undoubtedly be interested in re-signing Winfield, the team's second-round pick from 2020 who embodies toughness for a very good defense.
L'Jarius Sneed, CB, Kansas City Chiefs
If there's a beneficiary of the Chiefs failing to extend Chris Jones, it's Sneed, who could be next in line for a new deal with the team that drafted him. But if he hits free agency, he should get paid -- as above-average corners do. In 2021, Sneed, 26, became the fifth player since 1999 with at least 100 tackles, three forced fumbles, three interceptions and three sacks. His stats aren't gaudy this year, but turn on the Jets-Chiefs tape and watch him battle Garrett Wilson for four quarters.
Danielle Hunter, LB, Minnesota Vikings
He's a third contract guy but is 28 years old and has started fast with 15 tackles, five sacks and a forced fumble, a bright spot on an uneven Vikings defense. Minnesota gave the underpaid Hunter a bridge deal before the season worth $17 million. Only $18 million of that is in salary, making him a potentially tempting trade piece should Minnesota continue to struggle.
D'Andre Swift, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Swift won't top a loaded free agent running back class, but what he's done can't be discounted. Swift is among the league leaders in rushing with 364 yards on 59 carries (6.2 yards per carry), realizing his enormous potential as Philly's lead back. Sure, he's running through big holes. But he's making people miss, too.
Not household names, but will get paid
Josh Allen, LB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville's former No. 7 overall pick never had the sack totals to complement his athleticism -- until now. Allen is off to a hot start at the perfect time, wrecking Atlanta's front for three sacks Sunday on the way to six for the year. As one NFC exec said, Allen, at 6-foot-5 and 262 pounds, is a player that an offensive line feels on every down -- powerful and explosive. But his sack numbers (27.5 through his first four seasons) affected his bottom line.
Another intriguing speedy pass rusher is the Patriots' Josh Uche (2.0), whose profile heightens with Matthew Judon injured. He's positioned to have a good market.
Jonah Jackson, G, Detroit Lions
Guards typically aren't household names, so they are perfect for this section. Jackson has a Pro Bowl pedigree to match the Lions' success on offense. Detroit is known as having one of the best offensive lines in football, which is why some executives believe Detroit will find a way to keep him. But the Lions already have two big-money contracts along the line and must find a way to pay Penei Sewell. Either way, Jackson will be richer come March.
Justin Madubuike, DT, Baltimore Ravens
Jones and Wilkins are the biggest names among defensive tackles in contract years, but Madubuike is in line to earn big dollars in March. He's an anchor for the Ravens' disruptive 3-4 front. Baltimore's defensive linemen don't always put up gaudy stats, but Madubuike has a respectable 17.5 run stuffs over the last two-plus years along with 7.5 sacks since 2022. Several evaluators say he could earn more money than people think.
Mike Onwenu, G, New England Patriots
New England's offense isn't flashy but the 6-foot-3, 350-pound Onwenu will do well in free agency. He's considered a fringe top-10 interior offensive line talent by some evaluators. Big and physical, Onwenu turns 26 in December, has 45 career starts and can play tackle or guard ... though he committed three penalties Sunday in Dallas.
Robert Hunt, T, Miami Dolphins
Miami has been running wild on defenses, thanks in part to an offensive line that features four upcoming free agents. The feeling in Miami is Hunt has been the most consistent. The former second-round pick hasn't allowed a sack and has committed one penalty on the year, though some execs noted he's struggled in pass protection at times in his career. Massive (6-foot-6, 327 pounds) but agile, Hunt could have good money waiting for him in a zone-blocking offense.
Grant Delpit, S, Cleveland Browns
Jim Schwartz's defense has brought out the best in Delpit, who has increased his profile over the first month with his range. Delpit struggled at times with miscommunications on the back end in 2022, and his torn Achilles from 2020 will be on teams' player files, but he's thriving this season with 21 tackles, two pass deflections and one interception.
This safety group is stacked, with Kyle Dugger, Jayron Kearse, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Xavier McKinney, Jeremy Chinn, Kamren Curl and Jordan Whitehead among viable options. But Delpit has helped himself in that pecking order of late, though some evaluators want to see a more consistent tackler.
Jaylon Johnson, CB, Chicago Bears
The Bears corner has been a consistent starter and one of the better corners in the free agency class. Johnson doesn't have the ball production through three games this year but has shown it over his career with 32 pass deflections.
Not free agents, but will get new deals
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
Tagovailoa is making a compelling case for early MVP favorite, and if he has a healthy season, a premier deal likely awaits. People around the league I've spoken to agree that Miami should wait until after the season to extend Tagovailoa, a 2025 free agent. That gives him the chance to put together a full, healthy season. If he does so, the numbers and wins should be there and doing a deal will be the logical move.
"You might as well take the full year so you have every available data point before you commit one way or the other," an NFC executive said.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
This seems like an easy call. Jefferson is on a historic pace yet again with 543 yards through four games. He will most likely shatter all records for pass-catchers in their first four NFL seasons. The Vikings decided long ago they would build the offense around Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, whom they paid in August. But when sides couldn't reach a deal by Week 1, they decided to pick things up after the season. Minnesota could act fast on that once the offseason hits.
Tristan Wirfs, T, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The premier offensive tackle has made a seamless transition from the right to left side this season, replacing Donovan Smith along Tampa Bay's line. Wirfs is among the game's best at the position. He's got a fifth-year option in 2024, but talks could intensify later in the season. There's precedent for this -- the Bucs extended Vita Vea in January of his fourth season, before his fifth-year option.
Micah Parsons, LB, Dallas Cowboys
He's eligible for an extension after the season. Expect the Cowboys to place the fifth-year option on him, then work overtime to get a deal done. Parsons' price is only going up. He's one of the game's best players at any position and leads the NFL with a 36.4% pass-rush win rate. Back up the truck.
More free agent QB stock
Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings
The mayor of GuaranteedContractVille is pacing for the fourth 4,000-yard, 30-touchdown season of his career. Assuming he doesn't stay with Minnesota, he's well-positioned to become the highest earner in free agency. While teams I've spoken to have little doubt Cousins will push for a fully guaranteed deal based on the precedent he set, where the player and team settle on price will deepen the intrigue.
One AFC executive says the Derek Carr per-year average of $37.5 million could be a good comp for Cousins, pointing out that teams seem to be drawing proverbial lines in the sand on QB deals -- there's the elite that deserves above $40 million, then the slightly-above-average starter that falls below that, then the team-friendly rookie deals and not much in between. When discussing potential fits, Atlanta does come up among a few teams.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The career renaissance in Tampa is on, with Mayfield ranking seventh in QBR (69.0) with a stellar 140.1 passer rating on third downs, tops in the league. His Week 3 performance vs. Philadelphia was shaky, but he rebounded with moments of brilliance in New Orleans, guiding Tampa to 26 points in a tough environment. Mayfield as a reliable starter is good for the league. And if he can keep it up, perhaps a longer marriage with Tampa is in order. The blueprint to success would be Geno Smith, who parlayed his first year as a Seattle starter into a Pro Bowl campaign and a three-year, $75-million contract. Not saying Mayfield is getting that deal necessarily, just that Smith was in a similar situation and cashed in.
Joshua Dobbs, QB, Arizona Cardinals
In the span of about six weeks, Dobbs went from an NFL backup to a four-game starter completing 70.7% of his passes for 814 yards and four touchdowns to zero interceptions. He's been a great story in Arizona, and it should pay off. "He's clearly proven he will be a high-level No. 2," an AFC executive said. For Washington's Jacoby Brissett, that meant a one-year, $10-million deal with $8 million guaranteed. That's more than Dobbs' career earnings ($7.42 million) since 2017.
Players who need a better October if they want to get paid
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Jacobs came alive with 139 total yards (81 receiving) in a Week 4 loss to the Chargers, but his 2.7 yards-per-carry average is the lowest in his career by more than a yard. Pointing to rustiness from his holdout is convenient, but the Raiders' rushing lanes aren't exactly wide, either. Jacobs' pedigree and past production should earn him a respectable contract. But he's got work to do.
Chase Claypool, WR, Chicago Bears
The Bears got a poor investment return on Claypool, who was benched after four catches through the first three games. Chicago made him inactive in Week 4, two days after he told reporters he was not being utilized correctly. Perhaps Chicago can salvage a late-round pick to send Claypool to his third team in two years. But teams I've talked to believe the Bears will end up releasing him, which would mean he'd outstayed his welcome in two spots (Chicago and Pittsburgh). Perhaps Claypool's speed/size combination will reignite his career somewhere.
Tyron Smith, T, Dallas Cowboys
Smith is playing the last season of an eight-year contract (eight!), and several evaluators say he's still got value at age 32, with the theory that even 60-70% of Smith, once the game's premier left tackle, is still good. But durability is the primary concern. And he's already missed two games this year, which marks 35 absences since 2020.
Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks
The former first-round pick was a key piece in the Russell Wilson trade two years ago but has not been featured prominently this year. He was tied with fellow tight end Colby Parkinson, another intriguing 2024 free agent, with nine targets through the first three weeks, producing eight catches for 97 yards and zero touchdowns. Fant did have a 51-yard catch to set up a touchdown against the Giants on Monday night, but was again limited to just two targets.