We're on to the third weekend of the 2023 NFL season, and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Week 3 slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal on Sunday. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out on Sunday, including some player props. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news that you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Sunday's winners
Would anyone succeed behind the Jets' offensive line?
Yes, Zach Wilson threw three interceptions last week against the Cowboys, but the Jets also have the worst pass block win rate in the NFL through two weeks (32.7%). This week's matchup against the Patriots -- who don't have a particularly threatening pass rush, ranking 23rd in pass rush win rate at 37.2% -- will be a good test for what appears to be a very poor New York offensive line.
The Jets have the lowest-ranked player in PBWR at both offensive tackle (Duane Brown) and center (Connor McGovern), with two more (Mekhi Becton, Laken Tomlinson) in the bottom six at their respective positions. For those counting at home, that makes guard Alijah Vera-Tucker the only non-liability on the line right now. Sure, the Cowboys have a dangerous pass rush, but they were also only one of the Jets' first two opponents, and there were plenty of reasons to be skeptical of the Jets' O-line coming into the season.
Which offenses are using -- and succeeding with -- motion at the snap?
Plays with a man in motion at the snap -- which I wrote about in 2019 -- have continued to rise in frequency over the past few years. While the effectiveness of motion on run plays appears something close to equal with run plays without motion in terms of efficiency, motion at the snap on dropbacks continues to give an edge. In 2017, just 3% of dropbacks included motion at the snap. It has risen every season since then, checking in at 15% in 2023. And so far this season, the expected points added (EPA) per dropback on motion at the snap plays is 0.11, while non-motion at the snap plays is 0.04.
So who is pulling this lever most often? The Rams' Sean McVay, the 49ers' Kyle Shanahan and their offensive coaching offshoots. The Dolphins (46%), Packers (40%), 49ers (33%) and Rams (29%) rank Nos. 1-4 in motion at the snap on dropbacks. All four of those teams have been substantially more efficient with motion at the snap on dropbacks than without.
What should we make of Raiders edge rusher Tyree Wilson's (literal) slow start?
I saw this critique of Wilson's get-off from The Athletic's Ted Nguyen, and the numbers back up that this indeed has been an early problem for the No. 7 overall pick in April's draft. Among edge rushers with at least 40 pass rushes this season, no one has a slower pass-rush get-off (time to cross the line of scrimmage) than Wilson at 1.01 seconds, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Small sample, right? Well, maybe, but I looked at how players performed in pass-rush get-off over the first two weeks last year against the rest of the season, and the correlation was high (0.67), so I think there's plenty of reason to be concerned here.
If we look at the edge rushers with the worst pass-rush get-offs at the end of last season, it's not a list with a ton of big names: Jihad Ward, Adetokunbo Ogundeji, Rasheem Green, Dominique Robinson and John Franklin-Myers were the bottom five among those with at least 170 pass rushes. The effect is already apparent, too. Wilson is tied for last among edge rushers in pass rush win rate -- at 0%.
Could this all be just a slow start for a rookie who eventually turns it around? Of course. But it's definitely a bad sign through two games.
Should we be skeptical of Packers quarterback Jordan Love's hot start?
Love is off to a very nice start to the season, posting a 75.5 Total QBR that ranks fourth in the league, six touchdown passes and zero interceptions. So from a production standpoint, he has been incredibly efficient.
But Love also ranks 31st out of 32 quarterbacks in completion percentage over expectation at minus-11% (via NFL Next Gen Stats), is 30th in adjusted completion percentage (59%) and sits at 31st in off-target rate (23%). I'm not that worried about the last number on its own -- Love has the second-highest air yards per attempt in the league, so it figures he would have a higher off-target rate -- but the first two adjust for depth of target and are indicating he should be completing more passes.
In his defense, both CPOE and adjusted completion percentage are reflections of both quarterback and receiver, so it's possible this is more on Love's pass-catchers than the QB himself. But Love has also had some advantageous circumstances, playing behind a good offensive line and facing light boxes (tougher to throw against) just 67% of the time, the fifth-lowest rate. The efficiency can't be denied, but I'll be watching Love closely against the Saints and going forward to try to get a better sense of his long-term trajectory.
Is Micah Parsons on his way to Defensive Player of the Year honors?
Parsons leads the league in pass rush win rate (36%), just like he did in 2022 and 2021. But he is now being double-teamed as an edge rusher 40% of the time, the highest rate in the league. If that 40% sounds high, you're not wrong. Consider that Myles Garrett led the league in double-team rate at edge last season at 31%.
Of course, season-long numbers are never going to be as extreme as a two-week sample. But Parsons' 40% double-team rate this season is the second highest over Weeks 1-2 since 2018, only behind Carl Granderson in 2021. He is absolutely my early prediction to win Defensive Player of the Year.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up -- and can start this week
Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (48.7% rostered)
The Steelers play the Raiders this week, and Warren could very well replace Najee Harris as the lead in the team's running back committee. Harris has scored only 10.6 total fantasy points so far this season, and due to his inefficiency, we are slightly closer to a 50-50 split between him and Warren after two games. With 10 touches for 86 yards, Warren was a huge catalyst for the Steelers in their "Monday Night Football" win over the Browns. When he touches the football, great things happen. The Raiders' defense ranks 23rd in the NFL in run stop win rate (29.1%) and 26th in yards per carry allowed (4.9).
Gus Edwards, RB, Baltimore Ravens (35.6% rostered)
Justice Hill could miss this week's game against the Colts with a toe injury, positioning Edwards as a sleeper in fantasy. The Ravens' offensive line has performed well this season, ranking third in run block win rate (64.2%). And when given rushing opportunities, Edwards has been a productive fantasy runner. He has had 11 games with 15 or more rushing attempts over his career, and in those 11 games, he has averaged 12.5 fantasy points.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys (15.3% rostered)
To reduce Dak Prescott's interceptions, Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy has prioritized high-percentage targets since taking over playcalling duties this season. It seems to be working because Prescott has zero picks entering Week 3. And with his routes run increasing with each game, Ferguson -- who leads the league with eight red zone targets -- has a very favorable matchup against the Cardinals defense in Week 3. Through two games, Arizona has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Robert Woods, WR, Houston Texans (12.2% rostered)
Nico Collins and Tank Dell have garnered a lot of chatter among fantasy managers, but don't forget about Woods. The Texans added him this offseason since he's familiar with new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's scheme. Woods played for Rams coach Sean McVay from 2017 to '21 in an offense that featured similar concepts, and he averaged 8.1 targets and 68.0 receiving yards per game over that time. And in 2023, he is averaging 9.5 targets and 65 receiving yards per game. Considering Houston is a big underdog against Jacksonville, Woods should be very busy on Sunday as the Texans try to keep up.
Desmond Ridder, QB, Atlanta Falcons (2.3% rostered)
Ridder finished as the QB12 in Week 2 with 21.3 fantasy points against the Packers. The Falcons heavily rely on the run game, so Ridder's 32 pass attempts were encouraging. It also helps that Atlanta upped its pace so far this season, averaging 63.0 plays per game compared to 59.5 last year. Sunday's game against the Lions is expected to be high-scoring, which bodes well for Ridder. The second-year QB has Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson at his disposal, and Detroit's secondary was unable to contain Geno Smith last week (328 passing yards).
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday's action
Bears quarterback Justin Fields will have more than 60 rushing yards
Fields has logged just four rushes on designed quarterback carries through two games, and he sits at 62 rushing yards on the season. That comes after rushing for 1,143 yards in 2022. So look for the 0-2 Bears to script more rushing attempts for Fields on perimeter schemes against the Chiefs, and for Fields to be more willing to attack open lanes on scramble attempts.
Saints receiver Chris Olave will record a reception of more than 25 yards
Olave has the vertical stretch ability to work down the field as a third-level target for quarterback Derek Carr. And we've seen it through the first two weeks of the season; Olave has a reception of 40 or more yards in both games. I'm looking for a straight go ball here against the Packers' man coverage or a schemed over route to attack a zone void on Sunday at Lambeau Field.
Bill Belichick's Patriots defense will have two interceptions
Jets quarterback Zach Wilson has thrown four picks this season, and his decision-making declines on obvious passing downs. This is an opportunity for the Patriots to change the picture post-snap, using a mix of pressure and coverage and moving defenders into throwing lanes to force Wilson into a mistake. New England has only one interception over two games, but that will change Sunday against the Jets.
The Commanders will upset the Bills
If you want an interesting upset pick, take a look at the Commanders (+6.5) at home against the Bills on Sunday. Yes, quarterback Sam Howell will have to make some plays outside of structure to extend drives, but this is more about a Washington defensive front that should create conflict for Buffalo signal-caller Josh Allen. The Commanders have 10 sacks, tied with the Cowboys for the league lead, and a fifth-ranked pressure rate of 37.8%. This unit can heat up the pocket.
Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb will pick up more than 70 receiving yards
The Week 2 tape on Lamb shows us his versatility. He caught 11 of 13 targets in the win over the Jets, working all three levels of the route tree from multiple alignments. And in a positive matchup against Arizona on Sunday, look for Lamb to be featured again as a volume target in the game plan. His 220 receiving yards rank sixth in the NFL through two weeks.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
Colts QB Anthony Richardson (concussion) is optimistic about returning to play in Week 4 against the Rams, assuming he completes the protocol as expected, per source. The sense is Richardson is trending in the right direction. Behind the scenes, the team was deliberate and cautious about Richardson's outlook, believing an extra week of rest is suitable. The Colts are very pleased with Richardson's progress as a quarterback and don't want to take any chances.
Bears quarterback Justin Fields sought out offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko after Wednesday's practice to address his public comments that coaching may have played a role in his "robotic" play through two games. Fields apologized for any misunderstanding and made clear he values their coaching. Coaches wholly believed Fields and were adamant the two sides were on the same page. And then everyone spent the rest of the week trying to get the league's 26th-ranked total offense right. After some late nights this week, the Bears are hopeful they are closer to solving the problems.
The Packers have close calls in running back Aaron Jones and wide receiver Christian Watson, who are questionable for the Saints game with hamstring issues. The Packers are sorting through all of this over the weekend. Green Bay is notoriously cautious with injuries. But, both players are getting closer... Meanwhile, the Ravens have one healthy running back on the active roster (Gus Edwards), so it wouldn't surprise if practice squad veterans Melvin Gordon III and Kenyan Drake -- with a combined 15 years of experience -- get called up against the Colts. Justice Hill (toe) is hopeful to return next week.