Does anyone want to win the World Series? Is any MLB team going to step up and make itself the postseason favorite? In what is shaping up as the most wide-open postseason in recent history, every playoff team or contender is either scuffling, facing key injury issues or has just suffered one of the craziest defeats of the past 60 years (we mean you, Los Angeles Dodgers).
How upside-down is the baseball world right now? Two of the best teams since the All-Star break have been the Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates. The Dodgers have only two more wins than the Colorado Rockies since the break. We're definitely headed for a wild and unpredictable October.
With that in mind, let's look at each of the leading playoff contenders and check why each team can -- or cannot -- win it all. We focused on the 14 teams that have the best shot, though there are a number of others -- including the Cleveland Guardians, Tampa Bay Rays, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals -- that could still make the postseason.
THE FAVORITES
Milwaukee Brewers
Real or not: The Brewers don't hit enough home runs to win the World Series.
Years ago, in explaining why Billy Beane's Oakland Athletics had failed to advance to the World Series in the early 2000s, former ESPN analyst Joe Morgan argued that teams "have to manufacture runs in the postseason." The A's played station-to-station baseball, drawing walks and hitting home runs. "If you sit and wait for a three-run homer, you're still going to be sitting there," Morgan added.
Well, Morgan would love the Brewers' postseason chances as they haven't relied on home runs to generate their offense, ranking 19th in the majors in homers despite ranking second in runs scored. The problem is: Morgan was wrong then with his analysis, and he'd be wrong now. Home runs are a key to postseason success. Here's the record for teams that outhomer their opponent in the past four postseasons:
2021: 25-2
2022: 22-6
2023: 25-3
2024: 23-8
Add it up, and teams are 95-19 when hitting more home runs. That statistic is a little misleading, however, because there have been 47 postseason games since 2021 when teams hit an equal number of home runs. So, a better way to put it might be: If you do not outhomer your opponents (meaning you hit fewer or the same number of home runs), you still won 66 of the 161 of the postseason games played, or 41%. For the Brewers, the key then could be to win the games where they hit the same number of home runs as their opponent.
Verdict: REAL. Now, there are two scenarios here that can still work in the Brewers' favor. Their pitchers don't allow a lot of home runs either, tied for the fifth fewest in the majors (they've hit 154 and allowed 148). It's also possible that Brewers hitters can get hot and hit enough home runs in October. Still, recent history says it's usually an elite power-hitting team that wins the World Series. Here are the past eight winners with their seasonal rank in home runs and difference in home runs hit and allowed:
2024: Dodgers (third, +35)
2023: Rangers (third, +35)
2022: Astros (fourth, +80)
2021: Braves (third, +56)
2020: Dodgers (first, +52 in just 60 games)
2019: Nationals (13th, +29)
2018: Red Sox (ninth, +32)
2017: Astros (second, +46)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Real or not: The Dodgers' bullpen issues will prevent them from winning the World Series.
Let's turn the clock back 365 days to what we wrote about the Dodgers a year ago: "Pitching injuries will prevent the Dodgers from winning the World Series." Our verdict: Real.
We were wrong ... sort of. The Dodgers' pitching wasn't really all that great throughout the postseason with a 4.50 ERA. Only the 2002 Angels won the World Series with a higher postseason ERA during the wild-card era (since 1995). But the 2024 Dodgers were able to overcome an injury-riddled rotation with plenty of offense and enough quality relief work at the right moments -- especially with that bullpen game shutout in Game 4 of the NLDS to stay alive against the Padres.
This year, the concern is the opposite: The rotation is finally getting healthy at the right time, but the bullpen is a mess as it has battled injuries all season and ranks 19th in the majors in ERA. Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, two key free agent additions, have combined to allow 17 home runs with an ERA around 4.50. Scott has been the primary closer but has nine blown saves. After giving up a walk-off home run Friday, Scott said, "Baseball hates me right now."
It didn't like him Saturday either, when he and Blake Treinen combined to lose the game after Yoshinobu Yamamoto was removed after losing his no-hitter with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.
Verdict: NOT REAL. Maybe we just don't want to be wrong like last year, but it's also true that any bullpen can get hot for a month. The Rangers were 24th in bullpen ERA in 2023, the Atlanta Braves 11th in 2021 and the Washington Nationals dead last in 2019, yet all three teams won it all. The Dodgers still have a talented group that is reasonably healthy now with Treinen and Michael Kopech back from the injuries that had wiped out much of their 2025 seasons, plus a group deep in left-handers that will give manager Dave Roberts maximum matchup options. Don't be surprised if this pen steps up after scuffling all season.
Philadelphia Phillies
Real or not: Jhoan Duran is finally the closer the Phillies needed.
Speaking of bullpens, that has certainly been an issue for the Phillies the past two postseasons, when Craig Kimbrel lost two games in the 2023 NLCS and then Jeff Hoffman lost two games in last year's NLDS. The Phillies had hoped Jordan Romano would replace Hoffman in the closer role, but Romano struggled, so president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski went big at the trade deadline, dealing top catching prospect Eduardo Tait to acquire Minnesota Twins closer Jhoan Duran.
In Duran, the Phillies have their best closer since ... well, 2008, when Brad Lidge had a perfect season in going 48-for-48 in saves and the team last won a World Series. Duran throws 100 mph with a nasty splitter, but his best attribute? He induces grounders and keeps the ball in the park, having served up just one home run all season.
Verdict: REAL. Duran doesn't guarantee anything, of course. Remember, Jose Alvarado is ineligible for the postseason after his earlier PED suspension, which will leave the pen a little thin. Zack Wheeler is out for the season, so Cristopher Sanchez will have to respond as the new No. 1 starter in the playoffs. The offense is heavily dependent on Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper and has had some players, such as Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott, struggle in the postseason in recent years. But at least Phillies fans can feel good if the team gets a lead late in the game.
Detroit Tigers
Real or not: The Tigers have an ace in Tarik Skubal, but their lack of a No. 2 starter is a big problem.
Who will start the second game of the playoffs for the Tigers? We're in September, and that question remains unanswered. It's probably Jack Flaherty, who has an excellent strikeout rate (171 in 146⅔ innings) but also has an ERA over 5.00 since late April, mixing good starts with bad ones (he has allowed five or more runs seven times). Casey Mize? Charlie Morton? A bullpen game? Manager A.J. Hinch can only hope one of those guys gets hot these final weeks and makes his decision a little easier.
But how necessary is it to have a strong No. 2 starter? Here are the pitchers who started the second playoff game for the past eight champions:
2024 Dodgers: Jack Flaherty (6-2, 3.58 ERA)
2023 Rangers: Nathan Eovaldi (12-5. 3.63 ERA)
2022 Astros: Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA)
2021 Braves: Max Fried (14-7, 3.04 ERA)
2020 Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.16 ERA)
2019 Nationals: Patrick Corbin (14-7, 3.25 ERA)*
2018 Red Sox: David Price (16-7, 3.58 ERA)
2017 Astros: Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA)
(*Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg both pitched in the wild-card game, so Corbin started Game 1 of the NLDS.)
All these pitchers had a lower ERA than Detroit's No. 2 options. Several of them had big postseasons: Eovaldi went 5-0 in six starts; Valdez went 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA; Fried went 2-2, but the two wins were scoreless outings, including the World Series clincher; even Kershaw broke his postseason jinx in 2020 and went 4-1 in five starts.
Verdict: NOT REAL. Based on this list, it does appear that the Tigers could use a better second guy behind Skubal. On the other hand, over the past four postseasons, starters have pitched only 50% of all innings. You can sort of fake your way through the playoffs with your rotation like the Dodgers did last year or the Braves did in 2021. If Skubal dominates and the bullpen can withstand a lot of innings, the Tigers can still pull off their first title since 1984.
Toronto Blue Jays
Real or not: The Blue Jays' bullpen will be their downfall.
Yep, another bullpen issue to worry about. Manager John Schneider has stuck with the aforementioned Jeff Hoffman -- now a Blue Jay -- as his closer all season even though Hoffman has a 4.77 ERA, 7 blown saves and 6 losses and is tied for the major league lead in home runs allowed by a reliever at 14. That certainly seems like something that could haunt the Blue Jays in October. Overall, their pen ranks 16th in ERA and ninth in win probability added.
Verdict: NOT REAL. It doesn't help the confidence of Blue Jays fans that Schneider has made some questionable bullpen moves in previous postseasons -- against Seattle in the 2022 wild-card series and that odd very quick hook with Jose Berrios in 2023. But the Blue Jays have gone 0-6 in the playoffs since 2020 because they haven't hit -- they slashed .230/.288/.330 with just four home runs in the six games. Hoffman still has strikeout stuff and could get on a roll, but Toronto's offense will determine its fate.
New York Yankees
Real or not: Aaron Judge will have to hit -- and hit big -- in the postseason for the Yankees to make a run.
Judge has been criticized for his postseason production in his career, hitting .205/.318/.450 with 16 home runs and 34 RBIs in 58 games. Fair enough, as that is far below what he's done in the regular season. He was even worse in the 2022 and 2024 postseasons -- when he had his two monster offensive regular seasons -- with a .165/.284/.365 combined slash line. The Yankees did reach the World Series last year, in part because Judge was at least better than he was in 2022, but he didn't do much against the Dodgers until he homered in the final game. Of concern, of course, is Judge's shoulder injury; his numbers are down since he missed 10 days -- albeit still good with an OPS close to .900 -- and although he finally played a game in right field, he clearly can't throw at all.
Verdict: REAL. Judge has probably shouldered too much of the blame for the Yankees' postseason failures since his arrival in 2017, although he wasn't the one who called on a rusty Nestor Cortes to face Freddie Freeman in Game 1 of last year's World Series. It's worth noting that the Yankees lead the majors in home runs by a huge margin -- 33 more than the Mariners, and every player in their starting lineup Sunday has hit at least 19. Still, the Yankees are at their best when Judge is at his best. They need Judge to do what Corey Seager did for the Rangers in 2023 or what Freeman did for the Dodgers in 2024.
Chicago Cubs
Real or not: The Cubs' lineup depth is perfect for the postseason.
The Yankees rely heavily on Judge, but the Cubs arguably have an above-average hitter at all nine lineup spots. Matt Shaw is the only regular with a weighted runs created (wRC+) below league average, but the rookie third baseman has been excellent since the All-Star break, hitting .275/.329/.573 with nine home runs. His breakout has been counterbalanced by the slumps of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki, but the Cubs still have one of the better offenses in the majors on the season.
Of note, here are recent World Series winners who have had lineup depth:
2024 Dodgers: Seven regulars with an above-average wRC+ (and two just below with a 98 wRC+)
2023 Rangers: 11 regulars above average (including September call-up Evan Carter)
2022 Astros: Seven regulars above average (two weak spots in Yuli Gurriel and Martin Maldonado, but Gurriel had a good postseason)
2021 Braves: Seven regulars above average and one just below at a 99 wRC+ (of the nine postseason regulars, only catcher Travis d'Arnaud was well below average in the regular season)
You get the idea. The last World Series champ with what might be labeled an imbalanced offense was the 2018 Red Sox, who relied heavily on superstar seasons from Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez (and got a hot October from Steve Pearce).
Verdict: REAL. The Cubs' offense was terrible in August, so it's possible it peaked too early, especially if PCA can't break out of this slump. But this is also the kind of lineup that has won the World Series, one that is solid from 1 through 9 and doesn't give the opposing pitching staff any easy spots. It makes the Cubs serious contenders, although their likely second-place division finish renders the task a little harder because they'll have to get through the wild-card series.
THE POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Boston Red Sox
Real or not: Without Roman Anthony, you can kiss a World Series title goodbye.
The rookie phenom just went down with a strained oblique and could miss four to six weeks, which means he might be out for at least the start of the postseason. With Anthony in the starting lineup, the Red Sox are 40-26, but when he hasn't started they're under .500. Anthony had not only been the spark at the top of the lineup with a .396 OBP but was starting to tap into his power in August, hitting .317/.400/.561 with six home runs in 21 games before the injury. Now, the Red Sox will not only have to hold on to a playoff spot without him, but they will probably need to win at least a postseason series or two without him.
Verdict: NOT REAL. It's a huge blow, especially given his hot bat of late, but the record with Anthony in the lineup coincides with better performances up and down the roster since the beginning of July -- especially from the work of Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello in the rotation to help back up ace Garrett Crochet.
The Red Sox also have the best closer in the game in 2025 in Aroldis Chapman, who has a ridiculous .346 OPS allowed and 0.98 ERA; a red-hot setup reliever in Garrett Whitlock (a 1.47 ERA and no home runs since mid-May); and enough depth to fill in for Anthony, especially if they can get Wilyer Abreu back before the end of the regular season. It won't be easy without Anthony, but it could be a similar scenario to the Braves losing Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2021 and still winning the World Series.
New York Mets
Real or not: The Mets will have to rely on rookie starters Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong -- and it might work.
The Mets' rotation was outstanding early in the season (2.24 ERA in April). Then it was mediocre. Then, in August, it turned into the 1962 Mets with a 5.41 ERA. Kodai Senga, after going winless in his past nine starts since coming off the injured list, was recently sent down to Triple-A. The rotation is now heavily dependent on McLean and Tong.
McLean is 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA in his first four career starts, showcasing a deep arsenal of pitches and inducing a high rate of ground balls with just one home run in 26⅓ innings. Tong, the minor league leader in ERA and strikeouts, has made two major league starts, winning his debut before giving up three home runs in a loss to the Reds on Saturday (the only three hits he allowed). The Mets then turned to a third rookie starter in Brandon Sproat, who made his debut Sunday.
Can this work? Right now, a Mets playoff rotation might go David Peterson, Clay Holmes, McLean and Tong, unless Sean Manaea figures things out or Senga gets back on track. In the wild-card era, 15 rookie pitchers have started a postseason game for the eventual World Series champs. But two of those were veterans from Japan, one was a 32-year-old Orlando Hernandez in 1998, two were openers for the Braves in 2021, one was opener Ben Casparius last year for the Dodgers, and two were quick-hook starters for the Dodgers in 2020 (Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin).
That leaves seven traditional rookies since 1995 who started for a World Series winner: Ian Anderson, 2021 Braves (four postseason starts); Madison Bumgarner, 2010 Giants (three starts); Anthony Reyes, 2006 Cardinals (two starts); Dontrelle Willis, 2003 Marlins (two starts); John Lackey, 2002 Angels (three starts); and Livan Hernandez and Tony Saunders, 1997 Marlins (combined five starts).
So, there you go, a team has won the World Series with two rookie starters before: the 1997 Marlins, although Hernandez had 17 career starts before the postseason and Saunders had 21 (and all the others above had at least 18 starts). No World Series winner in the expanded playoff era has used a rookie starter as inexperienced as McLean and Tong will be in October.
Verdict: REAL. OK, so history says a Mets title is unlikely to happen -- and that's before even factoring in their own tortured playoff history since winning in 1986. But these two rookie starters are ultra talented, and the Mets have an offense that can score a lot of runs when it's clicking and an elite closer in Edwin Diaz. The key might not be McLean and Tong, but whether the veteran starters have anything left in the tank -- Peterson and Holmes have already far exceeded their season highs in innings -- and whether Ryan Helsley can find his groove to help set up Diaz.
San Diego Padres
Real or not: Like the Brewers, the Padres don't hit enough home runs to win it all.
Indeed, San Diego's lack of power is even more pronounced: Only the Pirates have hit fewer home runs than the Padres' meager total of 127. Ah, but the Padres play in a tough park to hit home runs. Except they are still next to last in home runs hit on the road. They did add some power at the trade deadline, however, acquiring Ramon Laureano and Ryan O'Hearn, and they did produce their best offensive month of the season in August.
Verdict: REAL. If we're going to hammer the Brewers, it seems fair to knock the Padres as well, given that Milwaukee has scored a lot more runs than San Diego. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are big names but have combined for just 43 home runs. And dare we remind you what happened against the Dodgers in last year's NLDS, when the Padres were shut out in the final two games.
The Padres' offense is better than it was before the deadline, and they will try to ride their bullpen to a championship -- although losing Jason Adam is a big blow -- but I'm skeptical they can produce enough offense over three or four rounds of the postseason unless Machado and Tatis rise to the occasion.
Houston Astros
Real or not: Yordan Alvarez 's return gives the Astros enough offense.
Alvarez isn't the only blast from the past to recently return to the roster. The Astros have struggled all season to fill the rotation behind Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, but Cristian Javier has made five starts since his return from Tommy John surgery, and Luis Garcia just made his second on Sunday. It's too early to know what level of effectiveness they can reach, but both have started games in the World Series in the past (Javier started that combined no-hitter game against the Phillies in 2022).
It's Alvarez who should make the biggest impact after missing most of the season. The Astros are 22nd in the majors in runs and tied for 17th in home runs. Alvarez changes that dynamic, and he has played some left field since his return, allowing manager Joe Espada to keep Jose Altuve in a DH role. Christian Walker has found himself after a terrible first three months as well. It's not a great offense even with Alvarez, but it might be good enough.
Verdict: REAL. The Astros will need to get Josh Hader back from his shoulder injury -- his postseason is still up in the air -- but in a wide-open American League, the Astros have the necessary ingredients: two ace-level starters, one of the best hitters in the sport in Alvarez (who has produced in the postseason with a .944 OPS) and a potentially lethal bullpen. The Astros shouldn't be here after losing Alex Bregman and trading Kyle Tucker this past offseason, but here they are.
Seattle Mariners
Real or not: You can't win the World Series if you can't win on the road.
Everyone loved the Mariners after they acquired Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor at the trade deadline, but the team hasn't taken off like many expected -- mostly because it has been absolutely miserable on the road of late. After beating the Braves on Sunday to win the series, the Mariners snapped a skid of six straight losing series on the road (and 0-6-1 in their previous seven). Their road record is now 34-41, and the rotation ERA on the road is just under 5.00.
But can they still win the World Series? Road records for recent World Series winners:
2024 Dodgers: 46-35
2023 Rangers: 40-41
2022 Astros: 51-30
2021 Braves: 46-35
2019 Nationals: 43-38
2018 Red Sox: 51-30
2017 Astros: 53-38
Put it this way: The 2023 Rangers are the only World Series winner since the 2006 Cardinals with a losing record on the road, and they were just a game under.
Verdict: REAL. Unless the Mariners mount a furious rally to overtake the Astros and win the AL West, they will also likely have to play the wild-card series on the road (assuming they even win a spot). Given how poorly they've played away from home, the first trip to the World Series in franchise history seems doubtful.
Texas Rangers
Real or not: With Nathan Eovaldi out for the year, the Rangers have no chance.
Eovaldi isn't the only injured Ranger: Marcus Semien will miss at least the rest of the regular season with a broken foot, Corey Seager is out following an appendectomy (he hopes to return before the end of the season), Evan Carter is out for the season with a fractured wrist and even Adolis Garcia just landed on the IL with a quad strain. But Eovaldi had been one of the best starters in the majors with an 11-3 record and 1.73 ERA, plus he was the hero of the 2023 World Series run when he went 5-0 in six starts.
Can you win without your ace? Well, it has happened before, including with the Rangers in 2023 when they were without Jacob deGrom. The Cardinals won in 2011 even though Adam Wainwright, coming off a second-place finish in the Cy Young voting, missed the entire season. Heck, the Dodgers won last year with Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw unable to pitch.
Verdict: NOT REAL. This is starting to look like a Bruce Bochy special, isn't it? The Rangers sneak in, Bochy figures out his bullpen just at the right time, deGrom and Merrill Kelly win their starts, and Seager returns to earn yet another World Series MVP Award. Never overlook a Bochy-managed team in the postseason. The Rangers just have to get in.
Kansas City Royals
Real or not: Bobby Witt Jr. doesn't have enough help in this lineup.
Two months ago, that looked like the case. But since July 1, only the Brewers, Red Sox and Blue Jays have better records than the Royals -- and the lineup suddenly looks respectable. The Royals are eighth in the majors in home runs and 13th in runs scored since the beginning of July -- and were even better in August after adding several players at the trade deadline. Here are some Royal batting lines since July 1:
Witt: .308/.376/.526, 10 HRs
Vinnie Pasquantino: .255/.318/.555, 17 HRs
Salvador Perez: .249/.292/.535, 16 HRs
Maikel Garcia: .272/.347/.461, 8 HRs
Mike Yastrzemski: .233/.322/.524, 7 HRs
Verdict: NOT REAL. Given that their home park is one of the toughest for home runs in the majors, this now looks like an offense with enough power to make a postseason run. Though Kris Bubic is out for the season, Cole Ragans made a rehab start in Triple-A on Sunday. If he makes it back to bolster the rotation, the Royals look like a team that could surprise in October.